Crowdfunding that is the combination word of crowdsourcing and funding makes people can start a business easily. Legislating JOBS act in US played a major role in removing restricted barriers of crowdfunding on public offerings of fence and private funds for small business. The growth speed of crowdfunding takes some beating. Through Kickstarter that is a popular crowdfunding platform and being considered the typical case of crowdfunding, 480 million dollars and more than half a billion dollars were invested in about 19 thousand and 22 projects for 2013 and 2014 respectively. But in spite of the rapid growth, the successful rate of projects at large is decreasing because of imprudent project launching. People just imagine a success story of some triumphant projects without any kind of preparedness when they launch a project. Up to now most of papers researched based on Kickstarter platform because it is the biggest crowdfunding site. But there is no research paper studying with the entire data yet. So, we gathered all the project's main pages in Kickstarter that are finished whether a project is funded or not from its launched date on 2009 to September, 2014. And we also collected all users' profile pages including initiators and backers. The goal of this research project is to analyze evolution of projects and users, investigate techniques and predict successfully funded projects and expected pledged funding levels, and providing intelligent search and discovery based on time series patterns of projects. To successfully achieve the goal, we propose to analyze all projects and users in Kickstarter toward understanding evolution of them over time and thus develop statistical models to automatically predict successfully funded projects and expected funding level. We used as many features as possible such as features being obtainable from text (project main, reward and biography description). Our result will be very helpful for people especially a person preparing a crowdfunding project to fulfill a dream.

Tout au long de leur vie, les individus sont confrontés à deux décisions qui ont des conséquences majeures sur leur succès reproducteur : où et quand se reproduire. Cette thèse étudie les mécanismes sous-jacents à ces décisions, à travers trois études basées sur des données de suivis individuels chez la mouette tridactyle (Rissa tridactyla) et le goéland railleur (Chroicocephalus genei). La première étude porte sur la dispersion chez la mouette tridactyle. La probabilité de quitter le site de reproduction est décomposée selon une structure hiérarchique des patchs d'habitat. Une hypothèse synthétique est exposée pour expliquer la stratégie de sélection de l'habitat en intégrant les coûts de la dispersion et l'utilisation de l'information sur la qualité de l'habitat. La seconde étude s'appuie sur un modèle de population intégré chez la mouette tridactyle pour estimer l'immigration, le recrutement, et la reproduction intermittente. Cette étude interroge la relation entre information sociale sur l'habitat et décision de se reproduire dans une population qui est située en bordure d'aire de répartition. La troisième étude porte sur le recrutement et la dispersion chez le goéland railleur, caractérisé par un fort nomadisme de reproduction. Des modèles de capture-recapture multi-évènements sont employés pour quantifier les variations liées à l'âge et au sexe. Ces exemples permettent d'aborder l'importance des contraintes imposées par la variabilité de l'habitat et la compétition intraspécifique dans le processus d'accès à la reproduction. / Throughout their lifetime, individuals face two decisions which have major consequences on the reproductive success: where and when to breed. This thesis explores the mechanisms underlying these decisions through three studies based on individual monitoring data in the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and the slender-billed gull (Chroicocephalus genei). The first study addresses hypotheses on dispersal in the kittiwake. The probability of leaving the nest site is sequenced according to the hierarchical structure of habitat patches. A synthetic hypothesis that integrates the costs of dispersal and the use of information on habitat quality is suggested to explain the strategy of habitat selection. The second study uses a population integrated model in the kittiwake to estimate immigration, recruitment, and intermittent reproduction. This study investigates the relationships between social information on the habitat and the decision to breed in a population which is located at the edge of the species range. The third study focuses on recruitment and dispersal in the slender-billed gull which is characterized by a high degree of nomadic breeding. Multievent capture-recapture models are used to quantify sex- and age-dependent variations. These examples enable to address how important the constraints of habitat variability and intraspecific competition are in the process of obtaining a breeding position.

Um pequeno grupo de golfinhos Tursiops truncatus, presente na barra da laguna de Tramandaí, RS, vem sendo acompanhado desde 1996 quanto a seus padrões de ocorrência e associação. A partir de 2002, tal acompanhamento passou a incluir dados de bioacústica. Através da fotoidentificação, os indivíduos foram observados na área em todos os anos, o que permite caracterizá-los como residentes, embora predominem os momentos em que estão ausentes. O tamanho do grupo é mantido constante, com oito indivíduos adultos, mas o nascimento de filhotes pode aumentar temporariamente este número, com até 11 golfinhos tendo sido observados num mesmo ano. Os nascimentos registrados para as duas fêmeas do grupo ocorreram em pelo menos duas épocas do ano (outono e primavera), num intervalo de aproximadamente 2,7 anos. Apesar da menor freqüência de observação durante o período de inverno, em todas as épocas dos anos de estudo foram observados animais na área, embora tenham variado em número e grau de associação, assim como também em diferentes graus de fidelidade, onde alguns animais foram vistos mais freqüentemente que outros. Animais solitários predominaram nas observações em qualquer período. Maiores agrupamentos foram mais freqüentes no outono, e secundariamente na primavera, coincidindo com a presença dos filhotes. Nas associações predominaram as duplas, embora grupos de até sete golfinhos tenham sido registrados. Ao contrário do esperado para grupos pequenos, os índices de associação de superfície foram baixos ao longo do período analisado. Índices fortes (>0,40) ocorreram somente entre fêmeas e filhotes, mas também temporariamente (em um dia) entre outros indivíduos, caracterizando sua organização social num continuum entre diferentes extremos de associação, provavelmente adaptada às condições ambientais e sociais. Na análise do repertório sonoro do grupo, foram registrados vários tipos de sons, desde assobios até cliques de ecolocalização e sons pulsantes, estes últimos bastante vinculados à atividade de alimentação. Foram analisados 1.768 assobios, dos quais identificou-se pelo menos cinco padrões gerais de modulação da freqüência fundamental: ascendente, descendente, côncavo, múltiplo e em forma de parábola (não sendo registrados assobios com modulação constante). Estes, por sua vez, permitiram o reconhecimento de pelo menos 34 subcategorias de assobios. Os assobios ascendentes predominaram nos registros, mas os outros dois padrões mais freqüentes (parábola e múltiplo) também foram representativos. O número e tipo de assobio variaram de acordo com o contexto, onde mais de 80% dos assobios foram registrados em momentos de associação. Assobios múltiplos foram mais freqüentemente registrados em associações, principalmente na presença de fêmeas e filhotes. Durante estas interações com filhotes, houve também a predominância de assobios ascendentes, mas as emissões apresentaram um padrão bastante distinto, com longas seqüências sendo registradas e a ocorrência de vários tipos de assobios diferentes, muitas vezes sobrepostos, sugerindo combinações que podem estar relacionadas a um aumento na troca de informações entre os animais, por sua vez vinculadas à importância da comunicação entre mães e filhotes neste período. Animais solitários emitiram predominantemente um tipo específico de assobio, com contorno da freqüência fundamental semelhante a uma parábola. Esta classe apresentou os tipos mais variados, e devido a estas variações na modulação da fundamental e sua freqüência de ocorrência em animais solitários, sugere-se que nesta categoria poderiam ser encontrados os assobios assinatura dos indivíduos deste grupo. O grande número de tipos de assobios encontrados, assim como a diferença nos contextos de emissão, sugere que os animais possuem um repertório variado, onde vários sinais parecem ser ainda compartilhados entre eles. Por fim, a comparação entre métodos de extração manuais e automáticos dos parâmetros acústicos não revelou diferenças significativas, viabilizando os resultados de ambas as técnicas. / The occurrence and association patterns of a small group of dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, inhabiting the Tramandaí lagoon, RS, have been studied since 1996. The study includes bioacoustics data since 2002. The individuals were observed in that area every year through photo-identification, which characterizes them as resident, although their absence is very frequent. The size of the group is quite constant, with eight adults, but the birth of calves increases this number temporarily, being 11 the largest group size observed in one year. The births recorded for the two females of this group occurred at least twice a year (autumn and spring), with an interval of approximately 2.7 years. Although less observed in the winter, animals were present in the area, with varying degrees of association and fidelity, some animals being observed more frequently than others. Solitary animals were frequent in any period. Larger groups were most frequent in autumn and secondarily in spring, due to the presence of calves. Regarding associations, pairs of dolphins were the most frequent form, although groups of up to seven dolphins were recorded. Different from the expected for small groups, surface association indexes were low in the whole period of the study. Strong association (>0.40) occurred only between females and calves; strong associations were temporary (one day) among other individuals, characterizing their social organization as a continuum from different extremes of association, probably adapted to social and environmental conditions. In the analysis of the sound repertory of the group, various kinds of vocalizations were observed, from whistles to clicks of echolocation and burst sounds, the latter ones associated to feeding activities. A total of 1768 whistles were observed, from which five general patterns of the fundamental frequency modulation were distinguished: Ascending, descending, concave, multiple and in parabolic form. Constant modulation whistles were not recorded. The five patterns allowed distinguishing at least 34 subcategories of whistles. Ascending whistles predominate in the records, but the other two frequent patterns (parabola and multiple) were also representative. The number and kind of whistles varied according to the context, where more than 80% of them were recorded in association periods. Multiple whistles were most frequently recorded in associations, mainly between females and calves. During this interaction, ascending whistles predominated, but vocalizations presented a very distinct pattern, with long sequences and several different kinds of whistles, sometimes superimposed, suggesting combinations which might be related to the importance of the communication between female and calf in this period. Solitary animals produced a specific kind of whistle, with a parabolic form around the fundamental frequency. This class presented the most varied kinds. Due to the frequency of occurrence as well as their variations in the modulation of the fundamental frequency, it is suggested that in this category one could find the individual signatures of this group. The large number of whistle kinds and the different contexts in which they were recorded suggest that the animals have a varied repertory, where several signals are shared among them. Finally, the comparison of manual and automatic extraction methods of acoustic parameters did not show meaningful differences, thus allowing the results of both techniques.

Um pequeno grupo de golfinhos Tursiops truncatus, presente na barra da laguna de Tramandaí, RS, vem sendo acompanhado desde 1996 quanto a seus padrões de ocorrência e associação. A partir de 2002, tal acompanhamento passou a incluir dados de bioacústica. Através da fotoidentificação, os indivíduos foram observados na área em todos os anos, o que permite caracterizá-los como residentes, embora predominem os momentos em que estão ausentes. O tamanho do grupo é mantido constante, com oito indivíduos adultos, mas o nascimento de filhotes pode aumentar temporariamente este número, com até 11 golfinhos tendo sido observados num mesmo ano. Os nascimentos registrados para as duas fêmeas do grupo ocorreram em pelo menos duas épocas do ano (outono e primavera), num intervalo de aproximadamente 2,7 anos. Apesar da menor freqüência de observação durante o período de inverno, em todas as épocas dos anos de estudo foram observados animais na área, embora tenham variado em número e grau de associação, assim como também em diferentes graus de fidelidade, onde alguns animais foram vistos mais freqüentemente que outros. Animais solitários predominaram nas observações em qualquer período. Maiores agrupamentos foram mais freqüentes no outono, e secundariamente na primavera, coincidindo com a presença dos filhotes. Nas associações predominaram as duplas, embora grupos de até sete golfinhos tenham sido registrados. Ao contrário do esperado para grupos pequenos, os índices de associação de superfície foram baixos ao longo do período analisado. Índices fortes (>0,40) ocorreram somente entre fêmeas e filhotes, mas também temporariamente (em um dia) entre outros indivíduos, caracterizando sua organização social num continuum entre diferentes extremos de associação, provavelmente adaptada às condições ambientais e sociais. Na análise do repertório sonoro do grupo, foram registrados vários tipos de sons, desde assobios até cliques de ecolocalização e sons pulsantes, estes últimos bastante vinculados à atividade de alimentação. Foram analisados 1.768 assobios, dos quais identificou-se pelo menos cinco padrões gerais de modulação da freqüência fundamental: ascendente, descendente, côncavo, múltiplo e em forma de parábola (não sendo registrados assobios com modulação constante). Estes, por sua vez, permitiram o reconhecimento de pelo menos 34 subcategorias de assobios. Os assobios ascendentes predominaram nos registros, mas os outros dois padrões mais freqüentes (parábola e múltiplo) também foram representativos. O número e tipo de assobio variaram de acordo com o contexto, onde mais de 80% dos assobios foram registrados em momentos de associação. Assobios múltiplos foram mais freqüentemente registrados em associações, principalmente na presença de fêmeas e filhotes. Durante estas interações com filhotes, houve também a predominância de assobios ascendentes, mas as emissões apresentaram um padrão bastante distinto, com longas seqüências sendo registradas e a ocorrência de vários tipos de assobios diferentes, muitas vezes sobrepostos, sugerindo combinações que podem estar relacionadas a um aumento na troca de informações entre os animais, por sua vez vinculadas à importância da comunicação entre mães e filhotes neste período. Animais solitários emitiram predominantemente um tipo específico de assobio, com contorno da freqüência fundamental semelhante a uma parábola. Esta classe apresentou os tipos mais variados, e devido a estas variações na modulação da fundamental e sua freqüência de ocorrência em animais solitários, sugere-se que nesta categoria poderiam ser encontrados os assobios assinatura dos indivíduos deste grupo. O grande número de tipos de assobios encontrados, assim como a diferença nos contextos de emissão, sugere que os animais possuem um repertório variado, onde vários sinais parecem ser ainda compartilhados entre eles. Por fim, a comparação entre métodos de extração manuais e automáticos dos parâmetros acústicos não revelou diferenças significativas, viabilizando os resultados de ambas as técnicas. / The occurrence and association patterns of a small group of dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, inhabiting the Tramandaí lagoon, RS, have been studied since 1996. The study includes bioacoustics data since 2002. The individuals were observed in that area every year through photo-identification, which characterizes them as resident, although their absence is very frequent. The size of the group is quite constant, with eight adults, but the birth of calves increases this number temporarily, being 11 the largest group size observed in one year. The births recorded for the two females of this group occurred at least twice a year (autumn and spring), with an interval of approximately 2.7 years. Although less observed in the winter, animals were present in the area, with varying degrees of association and fidelity, some animals being observed more frequently than others. Solitary animals were frequent in any period. Larger groups were most frequent in autumn and secondarily in spring, due to the presence of calves. Regarding associations, pairs of dolphins were the most frequent form, although groups of up to seven dolphins were recorded. Different from the expected for small groups, surface association indexes were low in the whole period of the study. Strong association (>0.40) occurred only between females and calves; strong associations were temporary (one day) among other individuals, characterizing their social organization as a continuum from different extremes of association, probably adapted to social and environmental conditions. In the analysis of the sound repertory of the group, various kinds of vocalizations were observed, from whistles to clicks of echolocation and burst sounds, the latter ones associated to feeding activities. A total of 1768 whistles were observed, from which five general patterns of the fundamental frequency modulation were distinguished: Ascending, descending, concave, multiple and in parabolic form. Constant modulation whistles were not recorded. The five patterns allowed distinguishing at least 34 subcategories of whistles. Ascending whistles predominate in the records, but the other two frequent patterns (parabola and multiple) were also representative. The number and kind of whistles varied according to the context, where more than 80% of them were recorded in association periods. Multiple whistles were most frequently recorded in associations, mainly between females and calves. During this interaction, ascending whistles predominated, but vocalizations presented a very distinct pattern, with long sequences and several different kinds of whistles, sometimes superimposed, suggesting combinations which might be related to the importance of the communication between female and calf in this period. Solitary animals produced a specific kind of whistle, with a parabolic form around the fundamental frequency. This class presented the most varied kinds. Due to the frequency of occurrence as well as their variations in the modulation of the fundamental frequency, it is suggested that in this category one could find the individual signatures of this group. The large number of whistle kinds and the different contexts in which they were recorded suggest that the animals have a varied repertory, where several signals are shared among them. Finally, the comparison of manual and automatic extraction methods of acoustic parameters did not show meaningful differences, thus allowing the results of both techniques.

Um pequeno grupo de golfinhos Tursiops truncatus, presente na barra da laguna de Tramandaí, RS, vem sendo acompanhado desde 1996 quanto a seus padrões de ocorrência e associação. A partir de 2002, tal acompanhamento passou a incluir dados de bioacústica. Através da fotoidentificação, os indivíduos foram observados na área em todos os anos, o que permite caracterizá-los como residentes, embora predominem os momentos em que estão ausentes. O tamanho do grupo é mantido constante, com oito indivíduos adultos, mas o nascimento de filhotes pode aumentar temporariamente este número, com até 11 golfinhos tendo sido observados num mesmo ano. Os nascimentos registrados para as duas fêmeas do grupo ocorreram em pelo menos duas épocas do ano (outono e primavera), num intervalo de aproximadamente 2,7 anos. Apesar da menor freqüência de observação durante o período de inverno, em todas as épocas dos anos de estudo foram observados animais na área, embora tenham variado em número e grau de associação, assim como também em diferentes graus de fidelidade, onde alguns animais foram vistos mais freqüentemente que outros. Animais solitários predominaram nas observações em qualquer período. Maiores agrupamentos foram mais freqüentes no outono, e secundariamente na primavera, coincidindo com a presença dos filhotes. Nas associações predominaram as duplas, embora grupos de até sete golfinhos tenham sido registrados. Ao contrário do esperado para grupos pequenos, os índices de associação de superfície foram baixos ao longo do período analisado. Índices fortes (>0,40) ocorreram somente entre fêmeas e filhotes, mas também temporariamente (em um dia) entre outros indivíduos, caracterizando sua organização social num continuum entre diferentes extremos de associação, provavelmente adaptada às condições ambientais e sociais. Na análise do repertório sonoro do grupo, foram registrados vários tipos de sons, desde assobios até cliques de ecolocalização e sons pulsantes, estes últimos bastante vinculados à atividade de alimentação. Foram analisados 1.768 assobios, dos quais identificou-se pelo menos cinco padrões gerais de modulação da freqüência fundamental: ascendente, descendente, côncavo, múltiplo e em forma de parábola (não sendo registrados assobios com modulação constante). Estes, por sua vez, permitiram o reconhecimento de pelo menos 34 subcategorias de assobios. Os assobios ascendentes predominaram nos registros, mas os outros dois padrões mais freqüentes (parábola e múltiplo) também foram representativos. O número e tipo de assobio variaram de acordo com o contexto, onde mais de 80% dos assobios foram registrados em momentos de associação. Assobios múltiplos foram mais freqüentemente registrados em associações, principalmente na presença de fêmeas e filhotes. Durante estas interações com filhotes, houve também a predominância de assobios ascendentes, mas as emissões apresentaram um padrão bastante distinto, com longas seqüências sendo registradas e a ocorrência de vários tipos de assobios diferentes, muitas vezes sobrepostos, sugerindo combinações que podem estar relacionadas a um aumento na troca de informações entre os animais, por sua vez vinculadas à importância da comunicação entre mães e filhotes neste período. Animais solitários emitiram predominantemente um tipo específico de assobio, com contorno da freqüência fundamental semelhante a uma parábola. Esta classe apresentou os tipos mais variados, e devido a estas variações na modulação da fundamental e sua freqüência de ocorrência em animais solitários, sugere-se que nesta categoria poderiam ser encontrados os assobios assinatura dos indivíduos deste grupo. O grande número de tipos de assobios encontrados, assim como a diferença nos contextos de emissão, sugere que os animais possuem um repertório variado, onde vários sinais parecem ser ainda compartilhados entre eles. Por fim, a comparação entre métodos de extração manuais e automáticos dos parâmetros acústicos não revelou diferenças significativas, viabilizando os resultados de ambas as técnicas. / The occurrence and association patterns of a small group of dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, inhabiting the Tramandaí lagoon, RS, have been studied since 1996. The study includes bioacoustics data since 2002. The individuals were observed in that area every year through photo-identification, which characterizes them as resident, although their absence is very frequent. The size of the group is quite constant, with eight adults, but the birth of calves increases this number temporarily, being 11 the largest group size observed in one year. The births recorded for the two females of this group occurred at least twice a year (autumn and spring), with an interval of approximately 2.7 years. Although less observed in the winter, animals were present in the area, with varying degrees of association and fidelity, some animals being observed more frequently than others. Solitary animals were frequent in any period. Larger groups were most frequent in autumn and secondarily in spring, due to the presence of calves. Regarding associations, pairs of dolphins were the most frequent form, although groups of up to seven dolphins were recorded. Different from the expected for small groups, surface association indexes were low in the whole period of the study. Strong association (>0.40) occurred only between females and calves; strong associations were temporary (one day) among other individuals, characterizing their social organization as a continuum from different extremes of association, probably adapted to social and environmental conditions. In the analysis of the sound repertory of the group, various kinds of vocalizations were observed, from whistles to clicks of echolocation and burst sounds, the latter ones associated to feeding activities. A total of 1768 whistles were observed, from which five general patterns of the fundamental frequency modulation were distinguished: Ascending, descending, concave, multiple and in parabolic form. Constant modulation whistles were not recorded. The five patterns allowed distinguishing at least 34 subcategories of whistles. Ascending whistles predominate in the records, but the other two frequent patterns (parabola and multiple) were also representative. The number and kind of whistles varied according to the context, where more than 80% of them were recorded in association periods. Multiple whistles were most frequently recorded in associations, mainly between females and calves. During this interaction, ascending whistles predominated, but vocalizations presented a very distinct pattern, with long sequences and several different kinds of whistles, sometimes superimposed, suggesting combinations which might be related to the importance of the communication between female and calf in this period. Solitary animals produced a specific kind of whistle, with a parabolic form around the fundamental frequency. This class presented the most varied kinds. Due to the frequency of occurrence as well as their variations in the modulation of the fundamental frequency, it is suggested that in this category one could find the individual signatures of this group. The large number of whistle kinds and the different contexts in which they were recorded suggest that the animals have a varied repertory, where several signals are shared among them. Finally, the comparison of manual and automatic extraction methods of acoustic parameters did not show meaningful differences, thus allowing the results of both techniques.

Lorsqu’un fort effet de marée entre Saturne et ses satellites de glace a été révélé il y a plusieurs années, le système a été sujet à des nombreux questionnements concernant sa formation et son évolution. Une implication importante de ces résultats est que les satellites sont plus jeunes que la planète et ont subi d’importantes modifications orbitales durant leurs évolutions, rendant possible plusieurs traversées en résonance. Dans cette thèse, nous cherchons à vérifier le scénario selon lequel Titan serait à l’origine de l’orbite actuelle de Japet. Si Titan a fortement migré lui aussi, alors il a dû traverser la résonance 5:1 avec Japet. Or, l’orbite de Japet admet deux éléments orbitaux dont les origines restent à être déterminées clairement : d’une part une inclinaison de 8 degrés par rapport à son plan de Laplace et d’autre part, une orbite excentrique d’environ 0,03. En plaçant initialement Japet sur une orbite circulaire et coplanaire avec le plan de Laplace, de nombreuses simulations numériques de la traversée en résonance, utilisant un code N-Corps ainsi qu’un modèle semi-analytique, ont été réalisées. L’analyse des simulations montre que les résultats sont très dépendants de la dissipation interne de la planète, paramétrée par le facteur de qualité Q. Pour des valeurs au-delà d’environ 2000, on obtient en majorité l’éjection de Japet lorsque Titan traverse la résonance. Pour des vitesses de migration élevées (Q en dessous de 100 environ) Japet est très peu perturbé par Titan. Le nombre d’éjections croît avec la valeur de Q et pour des valeurs entre 100 et 2000 la plupart des simulations montrent une capture en résonance, une évolution chaotique de l’excentricité et de l’inclinaison, puis une libération avec des éléments orbitaux perturbés. La valeur des excentricités après la résonance varie entre 0 et 0.15 et l’inclinaison peut croître jusqu’à 11 degrés. Sur 800 simulations effectuées avec le code N-Corps, 2 montrent une sortie de résonance de Japet avec des éléments en accord avec ceux observés actuellement. De plus, en comptant celles venant du modèle semi-analytique, plus d’une vingtaine montrent une inclinaison libre ayant dépassé 4 degrés. Ces simulations numériques nous ont permis de contraindre le facteur de dissipation de la planète à la fréquence de Titan. C’est pour une valeur de Q entre 100 et 2000 que les simulations de traversée en résonance rendent compte au mieux de l’orbite actuelle de Japet, rendant ainsi plausible le scénario d’un récente perturbation de Japet par Titan lors de la traversée de la résonance 5:1. / When a strong tidal interaction between Saturn and its icy satellites was revealed a few years ago, the formation of the system and its evolution were subject to questioning. These results imply that the satellites are younger than the planet and underwent important orbital modifications during their evolution, making possible many mean motion resonance crossings between satellites. In this thesis, we assume that Titan migration is also important, increasing its semi-major axis in time, and crossing a 5:1 resonance with Iapetus. Today, Iapetus’ orbital plane is tilted with respect to a natural equilibrium plane called the Laplace plane, on which a satellite should have naturally been formed. But, among having non-null eccentricity, Iapetus’ orbit stays on a constant 8 degree tilt with respect to this equilibrium plane. We are therefore assessing the possibility for Titan to be responsible for Iapetus’ orbit.Starting with Iapetus on a circular orbit with its orbital plane co-planar with the Laplace plane, we have used a N-Body code and a semi-analytic model to perform numerous numerical simulations.The analysis of the simulations show that the results are very dependent on the quality factor, Q. For values greater than 2000, Iapetus is more likely to get ejected during the crossing of the resonance, whereas setting a fast migration for Titan (Q below 100) avoids any strong perturbation of Iapetus’ orbit. The ejection likelihood increases with Q and for values between 100 and 2000, many simulations show a resonance capture, followed by a chaotic evolution of the eccentricity and the inclination, then a release with perturbed orbital elements. The range of values for post-resonance eccentricities are between 0 and 0.15 while the tilt can grow up to 11 degrees. Out of 800 simulations done with the N-Body code, 2 show elements compatible with Iapetus’ actual orbit. In addition, more than twenty simulations show a tilt having raised over 4 degrees if we count the simulation done with the semi-analytic model.These numerical simulations allowed us to constrain the tidal dissipation of the planet at Titan’s frequency. Some simulations performed with Q between 100 and 2000 account for the orbit of Iapetus we observe today, making plausible the scenario where the resonance with Titan was the source of Iapetus’ perturbed orbit.

Bird-vegetation associations are a base for bird conservation and management, as well as for predictions of the effects of resource management and climate change on wildlife populations. A recent shift in forest management priorities from timber production to native species' habitat conservation on federal lands has emphasized the need to understand the mechanisms underlying the effects of vegetation management on wildlife. The assumption of strong bird-vegetation relationships is rarely tested for forest birds, especially at large temporal extents, which are more likely to reveal instabilities in bird-vegetation relationships than short-term studies. This study aimed to quantify bird-vegetation relationships and investigate their strength in young thinned and unthinned Douglas-fir forest stands over ten to years post thinning. Additionally, this study investigated whether disturbance associated with forest thinning decoupled bird-vegetation relationships in the thinned and unthinned stands. I used abundance or occurrence data for eight bird species collected at 58 point count surveys, conducted during six breeding seasons over ten years following forest thinning. I obtained detailed local-scale vegetation characteristics associated with bird sampling points and modeled bird occurrence or abundance as a function of vegetation characteristics. Vegetation characteristics explaining individual species occurrence or abundance varied among species and among years for any given species. Six out of eight species showed responses to examined vegetation characteristics. For three out of six species, the effects of vegetation characteristics on bird occurrence or abundance remained consistently positive or negative over time. For the other three species the absolute effect of vegetation decreased over time to that of not statistically different from zero. The estimates of vegetation effects on bird response varied in size among years, though they were not statistically different among years. Magnitude of vegetation effect on bird occurrence or abundance did not increase with time, nor was it related to species prevalence or abundance. I found evidence of a response threshold for one species, Swainson's thrush. I suggest that changing abundance of resources, associated with thinning disturbance, demographic stochasticity associated with small population sizes, as well as large-scale demographic processes and possibly life history traits of examined species, mediate the strength of local-level bird-vegetation associations. Variability of vegetation effects on bird occurrence or abundance over time suggests a greater uncertainty of results of vegetation-related wildlife management efforts than has previously been suggested by short-term studies. Therefore, incorporation of the uncertainty of bird-vegetation relationships into predictive models and continued long-term monitoring of species response to management may be crucial for future successful and effective management decisions. / Graduation date: 2012

Age is often a neglected factor in ecological studies. However, age-related changes in reproduction and survival of organisms may strongly influence population dynamics. The Gotlandic population of collared flycatchers is a perfect system for studying age-related changes in the wild, as the exact age and reproductive history of most individuals is known. Collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) on Gotland show the typical pattern of age-related changes in survival and reproductive success; both factors show an increase early in life and a decrease late in life. This thesis presents a broad study not only of age-related patterns of reproduction and immunity, but also proposes the mechanisms driving these patterns. My results show that in addition to survival probability and reproductive performance, reproductive costs and life-history trade-offs also change with progressing age. There is a significant increase in reproductive performance at the population level during first years of life which result from selection against low quality phenotypes. On the individual level this pattern is best explained by an optimization of reproductive effort. However, high quality individuals have higher reproductive success as early as their first breeding event and are long-lived. Thus, they seem to adopt a different strategy than lower quality, short-lived individuals. Differences in individual quality seem to be shaped by the developmental conditions experienced as nestlings. Fledglings with longer tarsi, but lower body mass become long-lived, high quality adults. Young individuals breeding for first time pay higher costs of reproduction. They also express a limited ability to reduce these costs by breeding in high quality territories when compared to middle-aged individuals. Young individuals seem to invest more into self-maintenance, whereas old individuals reduce the level of self-maintenance (measured as immune response) and redistribute their investment towards reproduction. Thus, old individuals are limited in their ability to reduce reproductive costs under favorable conditions, especially as they also senesce, which pattern is also shaped by individual quality. Variation in individual quality appears to have an strong effect on age-related survival probability, reproductive performance, reproductive costs, and even life-history decisions. Therefore, taking this factor into account in studies of life-history patterns is necessary to obtain reliable results.

Le changement climatique mondial et les perturbations anthropiques affectent fortement les écosystèmes. Malgré des études à grande échelle axées sur la biodiversité, la façon dont les perturbations anthropiques influencent les divers aspects de l'écologie et de l'évolution des populations a également attiré une attention considérable. Cette thèse explore le stress amené par le changement climatique global sur les populations animales, en utilisant le système modèle du lézard commun (Zootoca vivipara) et de ses ectoparasites (un acarien du genre Ophionyssus et une tique Ixodes ricinus). La première étude aborde l'hypothèse de la compétition induite par les co-infections. La médiation environnementale est suggérée pour expliquer la cooccurrence entre ces deux espèces de parasites. La seconde étude utilise des données spatiales à long terme pour examiner les effets du réchauffement climatique sur l'infection parasitaire, la forme physique de l'hôte et la différence entre les différents phénotypes de l'hôte dans leurs réponses à ces stress (différences intraspécifiques). Des stratégies alternatives pour faire face à l'infection parasitaire et au réchauffement climatique sont validées, et un arbitrage phénotypique entre la défense contre le parasitisme et la survie est détecté. Cette étude confirme également une interaction phénotype - environnement, indiquant qu'au sein de la même population, certains phénotypes pourraient être plus vulnérables que d'autres sous la pression de la perturbation anthropique. La troisième étude se concentre sur les changements de comportement et de syndromes comportementaux dépendants du parasitisme et des différents états de l'hôte. Des traits reproductibles avec un biais sexuel sont identifiés, ainsi qu'un syndrome comportemental d'évasion-audace. L'état individuel (la gravité) semble affecter la stabilité du syndrome comportemental. Cependant, les effets causals du parasitisme restent vagues et doivent être confirmés par des expériences de contrôle. / Global change and anthropogenic disturbances are intensely affecting the earth ecosystem. Despite large-scale studies focusing on biodiversity, how anthropogenic disturbances could influence various aspects of population ecology and evolution has also drawn tremendous attention. This thesis explores the stress of global change imposed on the animal population, by using the model system of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) and its ectoparasites (one mite in the genus Ophionyssus and one tick Ixodes ricinus). The first study addresses the hypothesis in competition induced by co-infections. Environmental mediation is suggested to explain the co-occurrence between these two species of parasites. The second study uses a spatial and a long-term data to examine climate warming effects on parasite infection, host fitness, and how distinct host phenotypes differ in their responses to these stresses (intraspecific differences). Alternative strategies to cope with parasite infection and climate warming are validated, and a phenotype-dependent trade-off between defense against parasitism and survival is detected. This study also confirms a phenotype-by-environment interaction, indicating even within the same population, certain phenotype could be more vulnerable than others under the anthropogenic perturbation. The third study focuses on changes of behavior and behavioral syndromes under effects of parasitism and host states. Repeatable traits with sex bias are identified, so along with a boldness-escape behavioral syndrome. Individual state (gravidity) seems to affect the stability of the behavioral syndrome. However, the causal effects of parasitism still remain vague and need to be further testified with control experiments.

Umweltveränderungen durch natürliche und/oder menschliche Einflüsse (insbesondere der Verlust und die Fragmentierung von Lebensraum) sind wichtige Faktoren, die zum weltweiten Artenschwund beitragen. Einer der entscheidendsten Beiträge zum weltweiten Rückgang der biologischen Vielfalt, ist der kommerzielle Holzeinschlag. Insbesondere in tropischen Regenwäldern, etwa in Westafrika, ist dies besonders besorgniserregend, da wenig untersuchte, diverse Wirbeltiergemeinschaften von einem starken kommerziellen Holzeinschlag betroffen sind. Frühere Studien haben bereits die negativen Auswirkungen großflächiger Abholzung auf die taxonomische und funktionale Vielfalt von Amphibiengemeinschaften, aber auch auf die Gesundheit von Individuen identifiziert. Umweltveränderungen können sich also auch nachteilig auf eine Wirts- Parasit-Beziehung auswirken, was nicht zuletzt zu einer verringerten Überlebensfähigkeit der Wirtsarten führen kann. Die Untersuchung der Auswirkungen von Störungen Abholzung und Umweltveränderungen auf Amphibien, sowie auf bestehende Wirts-Parasiten-Beziehungen sind daher von größter Bedeutung um nachhaltige Waldwirtschaft und zukünftige Naturschutzmaßnahmen planen zu können. In dieser Arbeit möchte ich mittels eines Regenerationsgradienten nach einer Störung (Abholzung) untersuchen, wie sich die Dynamik einer Amphibiengemeinschaft verschiebt und wie diese Störung die Wirts-Parasit-Beziehung beeinflusst. Ich verwende einen kombinierten Datensatz (Amphibie [Wirt], Milbe [Parasit] und Umweltbedingungen [Habitat]) der über zwei Zeiträumen im Abstand von 15 Jahren (1999-2000 und 2016-2017) an identischen Standorten (vor 45 Jahren abgeholzter Wald und Primärwald) im Taï-Nationalpark (TNP) in der Elfenbeinküste gesammelt wurde, um die Anpassungsfähigkeit von Fröschen und ihren Parasiten an sich ändernde Umgebungen zu untersuchen. In einem ersten Artikel unterstreiche ich die Bedeutung auch kleiner Waldgebiete als potenzielle Quellen für unbeschriebene Biodiversität. In einem kleinen, nie zuvor untersuchten Sumpfwald in der südöstlichen Elfenbeinküste fand ich eine neue Blattstreufroschart der Gattung Phrynobatrachus. Anhand charakteristischer morphologischer Merkmale, einer beträchtlichen, molekulargenetischen Distanz zu anderen westafrikanischen Phrynobatrachus-Arten, sowie eines individuellen, männlichen Anzeigerufes beschreibe ich Phrynobatrachus tanoeensis sp. nov. als eine für die Wissenschaft neue Art. Im zweiten Artikel untersuche ich die Widerstandsfähigkeit westafrikanischer Frösche in Wäldern, die vor über 45 Jahren selektiv abgeholzt wurden. Ich vergleiche die Diversität, Abundanz, Zusammensetzung und den Lebensraum von Amphibiengemeinschaften in abgeholzten und Primärwäldern innerhalt zweier Zeiträume (2000 und 2016- 2017). Ich konnte herausarbeiten, dass sich die Struktur des zuvor abgeholzten Waldes im Laufe von 45 Jahren langsam der des Primärwaldes annäherte, wobei die sichtbarsten Veränderungen in den letzten 15 Jahren auftraten. Während ich 30 Jahre nach dem Holzeinschlag zwar keine Unterscheide mehr in der Diversität und Abundanz der Amphibiengemeinschaft zum Primärwald feststellen konnte, beobachtete ich jedoch eine fortschreitende Konvergenz der Zusammensetzung der Amphibiengesellschaften in beiden Waldtypen. In den zuvor abgeholzten Wäldern erholten sich mehrere waldspezialisierte Arten (FS), während die Zahl mehrerer Generalisten (FG) über den 15-jährigen Probenahmezeitraum stetig abnahm. Diese Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass 45 Jahre nach der Abholzung der gestörte Lebensraum allmählich die Heterogenität des ungestörten Lebensraums annimmt, der in der in der Lage ist die originale Amphibiengemeinschaft aus Waldspezialisten (FS) zu erhalten. Im dritten Artikel untersuche ich die Faktoren, die zu einem erhöhten Milbenbefall in den Amphibiengesellschaften des TNP führen. Ich fand heraus, dass die Wirts-Parasit-Beziehung zwischen Milben der Gattung Endotrombicula sehr spezifisch auf Frösche der Gattung Phrynobatrachus zugeschnitten ist, da offensichtlich nur die vier Arten P. phyllophilus, P. alleni, P. villiersi und P. plicatus befallen werden. Ebenso zeigte sich der Milbenbefall abhängig von der Art (höchste Prävalenz bei P. phyllophilus gefolgt von P. alleni), des Geschlechts (höhere Prävalenz bei Männchen als bei Weibchen, sowohl bei P. alleni und P. phyllophilus), des Alters (höhere Prävalenz bei Erwachsenen als bei Jungtieren in P. alleni) sowie der Jahreszeit (höhere Prävalenz während der Regenzeit im Vergleich zur Trockenzeit bei P. phyllophilus). Ich diskutiere diese Ergebnisse mit Bezug auf die Ökologie der Endotrombicula-Milben, die stark von feuchten Bedingungen abhängig sind, sowie die Überschneidung dieser Bedingungen mit denen der Wirtsfroscharten überschneiden. Des Weiteren beobachtete ich, dass die Prävalenz des Milbenbefalls in den letzten 15 Jahren (1999-2000 bis 2016-2017) abgenommen hat. Dieser steht möglicherweise im Zusammenhang mit den lokalen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, was die in den letzten Jahren deutlich zurückgegangenen Niederschläge erklären würde. Meine Arbeiten zeigen, dass das Verständnis der Vielfalt westafrikanischer Amphibien noch lange nicht vollständig ist. Es zeigt sich, dass weiterhin Forschungsarbeit geleistet werden muss, um den tatsächlichen Amphibienreichtum besser abschätzen zu können. Darüber hinaus habe ich gezeigt, dass sich Amphibiengemeinschaften in abgeholzten Wälder zurück zum ursprünglicheren Zustand regenerieren können, was die Bedeutung unterstreicht, genutzten Wäldern ausreichend Zeit zu lassen, um sich zu regenerieren. Ob die Milbenprävalenz tatsächlich auf Grund des Klimawandels abnahm, sollte in Zukunft genauer untersucht werden. / Environmental changes due to both natural phenomena and/or human disturbance (i.e. habitat loss, disturbance and fragmentation) are important factors contributing to global species declines. Commercial logging is amongst the greatest contributor to this disturbance resulting in widespread biodiversity declines. In tropical rainforests, particularly those of West Africa, this is particularly troubling as diverse vertebrate assemblages are subject to heavy commercial logging. Previous studies have identified negative impacts of these logging practices on the taxonomic and functional diversity of amphibian communities and species. Furthermore, logging and other environmental changes may affect host-parasite interactions, resulting in exacerbated negative impacts of these pressures and reduced survivability of host species. As such, determining the effects of logging on amphibians, their subsequent recovery following selective logged forest, and the effects of environmental change on host-parasite relationships, will be paramount for informing future conservation action. In this thesis, I aim to determine how amphibian community dynamics shift over a regeneration gradient following disturbance (logging), and how this disturbance influences amphibian-parasite interactions. I use combined data sets (amphibian, parasite and habitat) from two time periods 15 years apart (1999-2000 and 2016-2017) collected in identical sites (logged forest since 45 years and old growth forest) within Taï National Park (TNP) Ivory Coast, in order to examine the adaptive capacities of frogs and their parasites to changing environments. In the first paper, I underline the importance of forest, even small, as potential source of undescribed biodiversity. In that small swamp forest, never survey before located in southeastern Ivory Coast, I found a new leaf-litter species of the Phrynobatrachus genus. Based on morphological characteristics, considerable molecular genetic distance to other West African Phrynobatrachus species, as well as advertisement calls, I describe Phrynobatrachus tanoeensis sp. nov. as a species new to science. In the second paper, I investigate the resilience of West African frogs in forests selectively logged over 45 years ago by comparing data (amphibian diversity, abundance, composition and habitat) from previously logged and old growth forest over two time periods (2000 and 2016-2017). I found that the structure of previously logged forest slowly recovered toward old growth forest states over the course of 45 years, with most visible changes occurring in the last 15 years. I also found no changes in amphibian diversity and abundance in the previously logged forest over time but observed a progressive convergence of amphibian composition in previously logged forests toward that of unlogged forest amphibian communities. In contrast, several forest specialist species (FS) recovered, whilst forest generalist (FG) species declined in the previously logged forest over the 15 years sampling period. These findings suggest that 45 years since logging activities the previously logged forest gradually provides habitat heterogeneity capable of maintaining FS amphibian species and more intact amphibian communities. In paper 3, I investigate the factors leading to increased mite infestation in the amphibian assemblages of TNP. I found that mites of the Endotrombicula genus seem to be specific to Phrynobatrachus frogs and infested only four leaf-litter species (P. phyllophilus, P. alleni, P. villiersi and P. plicatus). I also found that mite infestation was associated with species (highest prevalence in P. phyllophilus followed by P. alleni), sex (higher prevalence in males than females in P. alleni and P. phyllophilus), age (higher adult prevalence than juveniles in P alleni) as well as season (higher prevalence during the wet compared to the dry season in P. phyllophilus). I discuss these findings with reference to the ecology of Endotrombicula mites which rely heavily on humid conditions, conditions which overlap with the reproductive requirements of the host taxa. Additionally, I observed that the prevalence of mite infestation decreased over the last 15 years (1999-2000 to 2016-2017). This decreased mite infestation over time is potentially linked to local climate change, which exhibited distinctly lower rainfall in recent years. These studies show that West African amphibian diversity is far to be complete. Thus, more survey work needs to be done in order to have an idea of amphibian richness. Additionally, I showed that to environmental changes in the context of recovery following logging have a positive impact on amphibian. Forest amphibian community recovers in the previously logged forest, which highlight the importance to leave those forest to regenerate. However, although mite prevalence decreased over time, future research of post logging restoration and climate change impact on mite prevalence need be more investigate.