Taiwan has an ageing population, with more people in the concern of not having sufficient income stream during retired life. This study investigates the ageing issue through socioeconomic perspectives. It is recommended that apart from low interest-bearing term deposits, Interest-Sensitive Annuity is the most suitable solution for countering longevity risk. Through case studies, it has been found that 1, due to Annuity Puzzle sentiment, term depositors will continue to invest in Interest-Sensitive Annuities, regardless of the low interest rate environment. 2, Interest-Sensitive Annuity investors are as risk-averse as term depositors, implying that they do not necessarily choose the surrender option upon expiry. 3, due to customer sentiment, the Interest-Sensitive Annuity policy fees charged are inversely correlated to customers¡¦ willingness to invest. 4, by selling low-commission products, namely one- and two-year Interest-Sensitive Annuities through bancassurance channel, insurance companies enjoy the benefit of low cost capital and are able to reduce interest spread risk through efficient investments. Moreover, customers have their retirement needs covered while insurance salespeople of different channels are able to meet respective sales targets. It is therefore shown that Interest-Sensitive Annuities have the following benefits. For investors, it is the product type that best meets their needs. For insurance salespeople, they enjoy a diverse and complete product portfolio and for insurance companies, it maximizes operation efficiency. Unfortunately, after the termination of one- and two-year Interest-Sensitive Annuities on the market, insurance company capital costs have been negatively impacted, with retirement and longevity risks unsatisfied and insurance salespeople having less products to choose from. It is suggested that the regulator considers re-introducing one- and two-year Interest-Sensitive Annuities, using Risk-Based Capital as a complement in monitoring insurance companies.

In der Arbeit wird die Verbriefung von Mortalitätsrisiken mit dem Schwerpunkt der Modellierung des Langlebigkeitsrisikos bei Extremereignissen analysiert. Nach dem Aufzeigen der Vor- und Nachteile bereits existierender Wertpapiere für Mortalitätsrisiken wird der in dieser Arbeit verwendete hypothetische Langlebigkeitsbond präsentiert. Zentraler Bestandteil dieser Anleihe ist ein parametrisches Modell mit einem Sprungprozess und der Extremwerttheorie für die Berechnung zukünftiger Sterblichkeitsraten. Dieser Ansatz der Verbriefung von Mortalitätsrisiken ist neu. Es bietet die Vorteile die Steigerung der Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit der vergangenen Jahre besser zu erfassen und seltene (extreme) Ereignisse, welche signifikante Auswirkungen auf die Sterberaten haben, zu berücksichtigen.

本研究透過不同年齡與性別之保戶之壽險商品與年金商品保費淨值比例來做商品間自然避險策略，避免以往只能配適特定年齡商品間自然避險策略的限制，使保險公司能夠對於公司內不同年齡與性別之壽險商品與年金商品投資組合進行避險策略，並藉由壽險商品和年金商品的淨值保費比例來求出最適壽險與年金商品權重來配置商品組合。且使用臺灣實務資料以建構年金商品與壽險商品各自的死亡率模型進行商品間自然避險策略，並觀察在不同生命表限制下，商品間自然避險之最適權重的變化，供未來保險公司決策者在決定如何配置公司內商品間自然避險策略時，可有一量化之參考依據。

The purpose of the study is to investigate optimal asset allocation as a means of minimising the investment risk, drawdown risk and longevity risk associated with an investment linked living annuity. The three risk elements were tested for various categories of retirees investing the full retirement savings amount in a living annuity. At first the paper examines the South African public's current pre-retirement savings habits, propensity to save and knowledge on the financial industry. The literature concludes that very few people are saving adequately for retirement, thus leaving a gap between required retirement savings capital and accumulated retirement savings capital. As a consequence, retirees have to take on more risk, usually in the form of equity exposure, (only available in an investment linked living annuity) or delaying retirement, to try and breach the gap. Secondly the paper examines the constructs in developing an optimal asset allocation. An analysis of the constructs includes risk versus return relationships for retirees, various unit trust sectors and portfolios within the South African financial market, the investment horizon also stated as the life expectancy of a retiree and withdrawal strategies applied by investors or retirees. The practical data and theory from the literature study formed the basis of the empirical study where different retirement savings balances were tested at various drawdown rates and asset allocations in an investment linked living annuity. The study concluded that retirees have to consider, among other factors, the required standard of living (stated as a net replacement ratio), the need to withdraw one third of the retirement capital and life expectancy before investing in an investment linked living annuity. These factors will have the biggest influence on the risks associated with an investment linked living annuity. Furthermore, the study concluded that an optimal asset allocation would be able to support a retiree during the post-retirement phase. A well diversified portfolio with a minimum of 50% allocation towards equity and property assets seems to be optimal. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2010.

The purpose of the study is to investigate optimal asset allocation as a means of minimising the investment risk, drawdown risk and longevity risk associated with an investment linked living annuity. The three risk elements were tested for various categories of retirees investing the full retirement savings amount in a living annuity. At first the paper examines the South African public's current pre-retirement savings habits, propensity to save and knowledge on the financial industry. The literature concludes that very few people are saving adequately for retirement, thus leaving a gap between required retirement savings capital and accumulated retirement savings capital. As a consequence, retirees have to take on more risk, usually in the form of equity exposure, (only available in an investment linked living annuity) or delaying retirement, to try and breach the gap. Secondly the paper examines the constructs in developing an optimal asset allocation. An analysis of the constructs includes risk versus return relationships for retirees, various unit trust sectors and portfolios within the South African financial market, the investment horizon also stated as the life expectancy of a retiree and withdrawal strategies applied by investors or retirees. The practical data and theory from the literature study formed the basis of the empirical study where different retirement savings balances were tested at various drawdown rates and asset allocations in an investment linked living annuity. The study concluded that retirees have to consider, among other factors, the required standard of living (stated as a net replacement ratio), the need to withdraw one third of the retirement capital and life expectancy before investing in an investment linked living annuity. These factors will have the biggest influence on the risks associated with an investment linked living annuity. Furthermore, the study concluded that an optimal asset allocation would be able to support a retiree during the post-retirement phase. A well diversified portfolio with a minimum of 50% allocation towards equity and property assets seems to be optimal. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2010.

O objetivo geral é analisar os efeitos da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento econômico sobre a sustentabilidade da Seguridade Social no Brasil. No primeiro dos três ensaios, é analisado o impacto do risco de longevidade na previdência complementar fechada, bem como as possíveis consequências sociais e econômicas do envelhecimento populacional. O risco de longevidade pode ser absorvido pela Patrocinadora, transferido para o participante ou transferido para o mercado, e as vantagens e desvantagens de cada uma dessas estratégias são discutidas. No segundo, ensaio a sustentabilidade da Previdência Social no século XXI é analisada sob a ótica da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento da produtividade. Argumenta-se que a sustentabilidade não depende de superávits contábeis, mas da manutenção da trajetória temporal do custo dentro da capacidade de financiamento do Governo. Por meio de um modelo de simulações, são criadas 440 trajetórias de custo para os benefícios de Aposentadoria por Tempo de Contribuição, Aposentadoria por Idade, Aposentadoria por Invalidez, Pensão por Morte e o benefício de prestação continuada de Assistência Social ao Idoso, entre 2012 e 2100. As simulações são analisadas quanto aos efeitos que as mudanças demográficas, de crescimento da produtividade, de condições de elegibilidade e das condições de reajustes dos benefícios têm sobre a trajetória de custo. O terceiro ensaio utiliza os mesmos cenários simulados, benefícios e horizonte temporal do segundo ensaio, mas seu foco de análise é a trajetória de contribuição das coortes de trabalhadores, expressa como percentual da renda per capita. São simuladas, ao todo, 1.800 trajetórias de contribuição. Conclui-se que, sob taxas de crescimento da produtividade próximas à média histórica do período 1900/2010 e com o envelhecimento populacional projetado para as próximas décadas, as condições atuais de elegibilidade e de reajuste dos benefícios são insustentáveis. Os resultados conjuntos dos três ensaios apontam para a inevitabilidade do envelhecimento populacional brasileiro e para a necessidade de que a Seguridade Social e se adapte a esse fenômeno. / The overall objective is to analyze the effects of demographic dynamics and economic growth on the sustainability of Social Security in Brazil. In the first of the three papers I analyze the effect of longevity risk on pension funds, as well as the possible social and economic consequences of population aging. Longevity risk can be absorbed by the pension fund, transferred to the participant or transferred to the market and the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies are discussed. In the second paper the sustainability of Social Security in the XXI century is analyzed from the perspective of population dynamics and productivity growth. It is argued that sustainability does not follow from accounting superavits, but from maintaining the temporal trajectory of the cost within the capacity of government funding. Through model simulations, 440 cost trajectories are created for three retirement benefits, a survivor’s benefit and a means-tested benefit intended to support the elderly. The cost trajectories run from 2012 to 2100. The effects of demographic changes, productivity growth, eligibility conditions and the rules for raising the amount paid by each benefit are analyzed. The third paper uses the same simulated scenarios, benefits and time horizon of the second paper, but the focus of analysis now is the contribution trajectories of cohorts of workers, expressed as a percentage of income per capita. In total, 1,800 trajectories of contribution were simulated. We conclude that if the productivity growth rate keeps close to the historical average of the 1900/2010 period, the projected population aging in the coming decades will render the current regulatory framework of the benefits unsustainable. The combined results of the three papers point to the inevitability of the Brazilian population aging and the need to have a Social Security system adapted to these coming changes.

O objetivo geral é analisar os efeitos da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento econômico sobre a sustentabilidade da Seguridade Social no Brasil. No primeiro dos três ensaios, é analisado o impacto do risco de longevidade na previdência complementar fechada, bem como as possíveis consequências sociais e econômicas do envelhecimento populacional. O risco de longevidade pode ser absorvido pela Patrocinadora, transferido para o participante ou transferido para o mercado, e as vantagens e desvantagens de cada uma dessas estratégias são discutidas. No segundo, ensaio a sustentabilidade da Previdência Social no século XXI é analisada sob a ótica da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento da produtividade. Argumenta-se que a sustentabilidade não depende de superávits contábeis, mas da manutenção da trajetória temporal do custo dentro da capacidade de financiamento do Governo. Por meio de um modelo de simulações, são criadas 440 trajetórias de custo para os benefícios de Aposentadoria por Tempo de Contribuição, Aposentadoria por Idade, Aposentadoria por Invalidez, Pensão por Morte e o benefício de prestação continuada de Assistência Social ao Idoso, entre 2012 e 2100. As simulações são analisadas quanto aos efeitos que as mudanças demográficas, de crescimento da produtividade, de condições de elegibilidade e das condições de reajustes dos benefícios têm sobre a trajetória de custo. O terceiro ensaio utiliza os mesmos cenários simulados, benefícios e horizonte temporal do segundo ensaio, mas seu foco de análise é a trajetória de contribuição das coortes de trabalhadores, expressa como percentual da renda per capita. São simuladas, ao todo, 1.800 trajetórias de contribuição. Conclui-se que, sob taxas de crescimento da produtividade próximas à média histórica do período 1900/2010 e com o envelhecimento populacional projetado para as próximas décadas, as condições atuais de elegibilidade e de reajuste dos benefícios são insustentáveis. Os resultados conjuntos dos três ensaios apontam para a inevitabilidade do envelhecimento populacional brasileiro e para a necessidade de que a Seguridade Social e se adapte a esse fenômeno. / The overall objective is to analyze the effects of demographic dynamics and economic growth on the sustainability of Social Security in Brazil. In the first of the three papers I analyze the effect of longevity risk on pension funds, as well as the possible social and economic consequences of population aging. Longevity risk can be absorbed by the pension fund, transferred to the participant or transferred to the market and the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies are discussed. In the second paper the sustainability of Social Security in the XXI century is analyzed from the perspective of population dynamics and productivity growth. It is argued that sustainability does not follow from accounting superavits, but from maintaining the temporal trajectory of the cost within the capacity of government funding. Through model simulations, 440 cost trajectories are created for three retirement benefits, a survivor’s benefit and a means-tested benefit intended to support the elderly. The cost trajectories run from 2012 to 2100. The effects of demographic changes, productivity growth, eligibility conditions and the rules for raising the amount paid by each benefit are analyzed. The third paper uses the same simulated scenarios, benefits and time horizon of the second paper, but the focus of analysis now is the contribution trajectories of cohorts of workers, expressed as a percentage of income per capita. In total, 1,800 trajectories of contribution were simulated. We conclude that if the productivity growth rate keeps close to the historical average of the 1900/2010 period, the projected population aging in the coming decades will render the current regulatory framework of the benefits unsustainable. The combined results of the three papers point to the inevitability of the Brazilian population aging and the need to have a Social Security system adapted to these coming changes.

O objetivo geral é analisar os efeitos da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento econômico sobre a sustentabilidade da Seguridade Social no Brasil. No primeiro dos três ensaios, é analisado o impacto do risco de longevidade na previdência complementar fechada, bem como as possíveis consequências sociais e econômicas do envelhecimento populacional. O risco de longevidade pode ser absorvido pela Patrocinadora, transferido para o participante ou transferido para o mercado, e as vantagens e desvantagens de cada uma dessas estratégias são discutidas. No segundo, ensaio a sustentabilidade da Previdência Social no século XXI é analisada sob a ótica da dinâmica demográfica e do crescimento da produtividade. Argumenta-se que a sustentabilidade não depende de superávits contábeis, mas da manutenção da trajetória temporal do custo dentro da capacidade de financiamento do Governo. Por meio de um modelo de simulações, são criadas 440 trajetórias de custo para os benefícios de Aposentadoria por Tempo de Contribuição, Aposentadoria por Idade, Aposentadoria por Invalidez, Pensão por Morte e o benefício de prestação continuada de Assistência Social ao Idoso, entre 2012 e 2100. As simulações são analisadas quanto aos efeitos que as mudanças demográficas, de crescimento da produtividade, de condições de elegibilidade e das condições de reajustes dos benefícios têm sobre a trajetória de custo. O terceiro ensaio utiliza os mesmos cenários simulados, benefícios e horizonte temporal do segundo ensaio, mas seu foco de análise é a trajetória de contribuição das coortes de trabalhadores, expressa como percentual da renda per capita. São simuladas, ao todo, 1.800 trajetórias de contribuição. Conclui-se que, sob taxas de crescimento da produtividade próximas à média histórica do período 1900/2010 e com o envelhecimento populacional projetado para as próximas décadas, as condições atuais de elegibilidade e de reajuste dos benefícios são insustentáveis. Os resultados conjuntos dos três ensaios apontam para a inevitabilidade do envelhecimento populacional brasileiro e para a necessidade de que a Seguridade Social e se adapte a esse fenômeno. / The overall objective is to analyze the effects of demographic dynamics and economic growth on the sustainability of Social Security in Brazil. In the first of the three papers I analyze the effect of longevity risk on pension funds, as well as the possible social and economic consequences of population aging. Longevity risk can be absorbed by the pension fund, transferred to the participant or transferred to the market and the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies are discussed. In the second paper the sustainability of Social Security in the XXI century is analyzed from the perspective of population dynamics and productivity growth. It is argued that sustainability does not follow from accounting superavits, but from maintaining the temporal trajectory of the cost within the capacity of government funding. Through model simulations, 440 cost trajectories are created for three retirement benefits, a survivor’s benefit and a means-tested benefit intended to support the elderly. The cost trajectories run from 2012 to 2100. The effects of demographic changes, productivity growth, eligibility conditions and the rules for raising the amount paid by each benefit are analyzed. The third paper uses the same simulated scenarios, benefits and time horizon of the second paper, but the focus of analysis now is the contribution trajectories of cohorts of workers, expressed as a percentage of income per capita. In total, 1,800 trajectories of contribution were simulated. We conclude that if the productivity growth rate keeps close to the historical average of the 1900/2010 period, the projected population aging in the coming decades will render the current regulatory framework of the benefits unsustainable. The combined results of the three papers point to the inevitability of the Brazilian population aging and the need to have a Social Security system adapted to these coming changes.

In der Arbeit wird die Verbriefung von Mortalitätsrisiken mit dem Schwerpunkt der Modellierung des Langlebigkeitsrisikos bei Extremereignissen analysiert. Nach dem Aufzeigen der Vor- und Nachteile bereits existierender Wertpapiere für Mortalitätsrisiken wird der in dieser Arbeit verwendete hypothetische Langlebigkeitsbond präsentiert. Zentraler Bestandteil dieser Anleihe ist ein parametrisches Modell mit einem Sprungprozess und der Extremwerttheorie für die Berechnung zukünftiger Sterblichkeitsraten. Dieser Ansatz der Verbriefung von Mortalitätsrisiken ist neu. Es bietet die Vorteile die Steigerung der Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit der vergangenen Jahre besser zu erfassen und seltene (extreme) Ereignisse, welche signifikante Auswirkungen auf die Sterberaten haben, zu berücksichtigen.

The first part of the dissertation examines the effects of rate regulation, compulsory insurance laws, the wealth of individuals, premiums, and claim costs on insurance affordability and insurance purchase as measured by the ratio of uninsured and underinsured motorist claims frequencies to property damage liability claim frequencies in the US personal auto insurance industry. Because regulations which are intended to let high-risk drivers purchase insurance may discourage low-risk drivers from purchasing insurance, the effect of the regulations should be examined from the perspective of both high-risk and low-risk drivers. Literature using only uninsured motorist claim data finds that the effect of rate regulation, compulsory insurance laws, and residual market is significant on insurance affordability from the perspective of high-risk drivers. However, this study using both uninsured and underinsured motorist claim data demonstrates that the effect is weaker or not significant in increasing insurance purchase in general. The second part of the dissertation tests the sustainability of the Korean reverse mortgage program, reflecting the house price indices in different regions. Literature generally uses aggregate house price indices and consequently underestimates the risks that result from more volatile individual house prices than averaged house prices. This paper predicts house price indices by region and finds that the Korean reverse mortgage program would have losses at 25th percentile or 30th percentile, in contrast to the results of the simulation using the nationwide house price index, which show that the Korean reverse mortgage program is sustainable at 95% confidence level. This paper also concludes that longevity risk is not a big concern in the reverse mortgage program as long as interest rates are low and house prices are high. However, longevity risk inflates the effect of high interest rates and low house prices on the reverse mortgage program. / Business Administration/Risk Management and Insurance