La presente investigación tuvo como prioridad resolver el problema de congestión vehicular en el cruce de la Panamericana Norte con la avenida Próceres de Huandoy, ubicado en el distrito de los Olivos, Lima, Perú. Para resolver los problemas que aquejan a los usuarios de la intersección mencionada anteriormente se propuso implementar una intersección innovadora llamada Giro a la Izquierda Desplazada (DLT). El estudio se realizó teniendo en cuenta los principios microscópicos de simulación con el programa Vissim; con el fin de evaluar a detalle el comportamiento vehicular y peatonal de manera independiente, ya que el comportamiento de uno influye en las acciones de los demás. La intersección estudiada posee grandes aforos vehiculares y peatonales, y la relación entre vehículo y peatón se encuentra latente, ya que interactúan en medio de la calzada. Para realizar el estudio, se requirió dos visitas a campo con el fin de obtener datos para, posteriormente, evaluar la situación del tránsito actual y proponer las mejoras que los aforos demanden. Asimismo, se buscó que la solución propuesta sea perdurable en el tiempo. Por tal motivo, se analizaron los escenarios con proyecciones a un horizonte de 15 años en el futuro. Los tiempos de viajes vehiculares y las velocidades peatonales fueron los parámetros que ayudaron a la investigación calibrar y validar el modelo para que, finalmente, se obtenga las demoras vehiculares y peatonales. / The present investigation had as a priority to solve the problem of vehicular congestion at the intersection of the Panamericana Norte with Próceres de Huandoy avenue, located in the Los Olivos district, Lima, Peru. To solve the problems afflicting the users of the intersection, it was proposed to implement an innovative intersection called Displaced Left Turn (DLT). The study was carried out considering the microscopic principles of simulation with the Vissim program; to evaluate in detail, the vehicular and pedestrian behavior independently. Since the behavior of one influence the actions of others. The intersection studied has large vehicular and pedestrian traffic, and the relationship between vehicle and pedestrian is latent since they interact in the middle of the road. To carry out the study, two field visits were required to obtain data to subsequently evaluate the current traffic situation and propose the improvements that the gauges demand. Likewise, it was sought that the proposed solution is lasting over time. For this reason, the scenarios with projections for a horizon of 15 years in the future were analysed. Vehicle travel times and pedestrian speeds were the parameters that helped the investigation calibrate and validate the model so that, finally, vehicular and pedestrian delays were obtained. / Tesis

Muchas intersecciones de Lima tienen problemas de congestión de tránsito, debido a que la capacidad de la vía ha sido superada en tiempo récord. Esto puede atribuirse al crecimiento descontrolado que tiene la capital, cada vez hay más atractores de viajes que no fueron tomados en cuenta en los estudios de tráfico anteriores. En la presente tesis se realizó el estudio de microsimulación de tráfico de la intersección de la avenida La Marina con la avenida Rafael Escardó, con la finalidad de identificar las condiciones actuales de circulación y su mejora. Se tomó como base diseños geométricos de intersecciones estudiadas por Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) y se presentaron tres alternativas de solución, las cuales contemplan tres diseños geométricos diferentes. La primera alternativa es MUT, la segunda tiene giros a la izquierda protegidos y la tercera es RCUT. Para ello se realizó la construcción de los modelos en Vissim y su calibración para lograr las condiciones reales de Lima. Finalmente, se realizó el análisis comparativo de tres variables, la cola promedio, el tiempo de viaje y el número de paradas. Siendo la segunda alternativa la que obtuvo un mejor resultado, la cola promedio se redujo en 33 metros aproximadamente, el tiempo de viaje disminuyo en 22 segundos y las paradas por vehículo se redujeron en la mitad. Por ello, se recomienda la implementación de la segunda alternativa. / Many intersections in Lima have traffic congestion problems because the capacity of the highway has been exceeded in record time. This can be attributed to the uncontrolled growth that the capital has, there are more and more travel attractors in the city that were not considered in previous traffic studies. n this thesis, a traffic microsimulation study will be carried out at the intersection of La Marina Avenue with Rafael Escardó avenue, to identify current traffic conditions. Taking as a base some geometric designs of intersections studied by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), three alternative solutions were presented. The first alternative is MUT, the second has protected left turns and the third is RCUT. For this purpose, the models were built in Vissim and calibrated to achieve the real conditions of Lima. Finally, a comparative analysis of three variables, average queue, travel time and number of stops, was performed. The second alternative obtained the best result, the average queue was reduced by approximately 33 meters, the travel time was reduced by 22 seconds and the number of stops per vehicle was reduced by half. Therefore, the implementation of the second alternative is recommended. / Tesis

La presente tesis realiza el estudio de la situación actual de dos intersecciones de la Av. Malecón Checa y se propone una solución para mejorar la circulación vehicular al reducir la longitud de cola promedio y aumentar la velocidad promedio vehicular en aquella avenida para ambos sentidos. El estudio es validado y calibrado a través de las variables Wiedemann 74 utilizando como parámetro de eficiencia los tiempos de viaje. Los dos primeros capítulos presentan la problemática en la zona, la justificación, los antecedentes y se define la hipótesis; también, el desarrollo que se seguirá siguiendo un objetivo general y otros específicos, las limitaciones que tendrá el estudio y finalmente el marco teórico de este proyecto. Luego se compara los diferentes tipos de modelación de tráfico vehicular, se detalla por qué se escogió el modelo microscópico, sus fundamentos y su aplicación en el software Vissim 9. El capítulo 3 precisa el tipo y diseño de investigación; así como la metodología empleada para el desarrollo de la tesis, el procedimiento de recolección de datos basado en aforos realizados y el desarrollo de la microsimulación en el software Vissim. El capítulo 4 presenta los resultados de la microsimulación para la situación actual de la zona de estudio. Posterior a ello se presentan 2 propuestas de mejoras, la primera abarca una optimización de los ciclos semafóricos y la adición de un giro protegido. La segunda propuesta consiste en la implementación de un intercambio a desnivel en el sentido oeste a este. Ambas propuestas se evalúan individualmente y luego en conjunto. Finalmente se comparan los resultados propuestos con las condiciones actuales. El capítulo 5 nos presenta las conclusiones y recomendaciones, / The present thesis carries out the study of the current situation of two intersections of the Av. Malecón Checa and a solution is proposed to improve vehicular circulation by reducing the average length of the queue and increasing the average vehicular speed on that avenue for both directions. The study is validated and calibrated through the Wiedemann variables 74 using travel times as an efficiency parameter. The first two chapters present the problem in the area, the justification, the background and the hypothesis is defined; Also, the development that will continue to follow a general objective and other specific ones, the limitations that the study will have and finally the theoretical framework of this project. Then the different types of vehicle traffic modeling are compared, it is detailed why the microscopic model was chosen, its fundamentals and its application in the Vissim 9 software. Chapter 3 specifies the type and design of the investigation; as well as the methodology used for the development of the thesis, the data collection procedure based on the measurements carried out and the development of the microsimulation in the Vissim software. Chapter 4 presents the microsimulation results for the current situation in the study area. After this, 2 proposals for improvements are presented, the first one covers an optimization of traffic light cycles and the addition of a protected turn. The second proposal consists of the implementation of an uneven interchange in the west to east direction. Both proposals are evaluated individually and then together. Finally, the proposed results are compared with current conditions. Chapter 5 presents the conclusions and recommendations, / Tesis

La presente tesis propone una alternativa de solución para la reducción de la longitud de cola vehicular que se registra en la unidad de peaje Variante, a través de un rediseño geométrico, así como la instalación de sistemas inteligentes de transporte. Para la elaboración de esta propuesta se analizó la problemática que se presenta de forma diaria de dicha unidad de peaje, la misma que afecta a miles de usuarios, generando malestar, pérdida de tiempo y en general insatisfacción del servicio que se brinda en dichas instalaciones. La propuesta fue analizada a través microsimulación con el software Vissim, usando un modelo de calibración y validación a fin de simular la situación real de la zona. En el Capítulo 1 se plantea a problemática, antecedes de trabajos relacionados, desarrollo de la hipótesis, planteamiento de objetivos de la presente investigación. En el Capítulo 2 se ha desarrollado el marco teórico el mismo que sustenta el modelo de microsimulación. En el Capítulo 3 se describe la metodología usada, la misma que inició con la recolección de data de campo hasta la calibración y validación del modelo de microsimulación. En el Capítulo 4 se hace la presentación de los resultados de la situación actual y la simulación de la propuesta de mejora del diseño geométrico e instalación de un sistema inteligente de transporte, con lo cual se logra la reducción de la longitud de cola de hasta un 42% en horas pico. En el Capítulo 5 se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones que se logran con el presente trabajo. / This thesis proposes an alternative solution to reduce the length of the vehicular queue at the Variante Toll Unit, through a geometric redesign, as well as the installation of intelligent transportation systems. For the elaboration of this proposal, the problems that occur on a daily basis at this toll unit were analyzed, which affect thousands of users, generating discomfort, loss of time and in general dissatisfaction with the service provided at these facilities. The proposal was analyzed through microsimulation with Vissim software, using a calibration and validation model to simulate the real situation in the area. Chapter 1 presents the problem, the background of related works, the development of the hypothesis, and the objectives of this research. In Chapter 2, the theoretical framework that supports the microsimulation model is developed. In Chapter 3 the methodology used is described, the same one that began with the collection of field data until the calibration and validation of the microsimulation model. Chapter 4 presents the results of the current situation and the simulation of the proposal to improve the geometric design and installation of an intelligent transport system, thereby reducing the queue length of up to one 42% in peak hours. In Chapter 5 the conclusions and recommendations that are achieved with this work are presented. / Tesis

El texto completo de este trabajo no está disponible en el Repositorio Académico UPC por restricciones de la casa editorial donde ha sido publicado. / Cities in the world aim to ensure the mobility of people, through the implementation of efficient Integrated Transportation Systems (ITS). This aims to improve the transport of people, which guarantees that they can be mobilized safely and without delays in the terminals and bus stops of the public transport system. The present article proposes a design of public transport stops aimed at optimizing the waiting time of users when transferring from one bus to another. For the validity of the proposal, the social force model of the Vissim program was used, where the behavior of the users within the bus stops was reflected. The results showed that the waiting times in the calibrated and validated microsimulation model were optimized by approximately 20%, which generates an improvement in the efficiency of the public transport system. / Revisión por pares

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / State social security transfers for families existed in South Africa only in the form of state maintenance grants, which paid up to R700 to single parents. The system was not appropriate in the South African context, being racially biased and financially unsustainable. The Department of Welfare - following in principle the recommendations of the "Lund report" - introduced with effect from 1 April 1998 a child support grant which is payable to the primary care-givers of children, regardless of their family status. The level of benefit was set at RIOOper month per child for children up to the age of six (incl.). The Department declared that 48% or 3 million children should be targeted. At the same time, the SMGs are to be phased out over a three year period. This research was conducted between November 1995 and March 1998. The analysis of the different suggestions during the policy process and the final policy is based on two pillars: • A situation analysis of the living conditions of South Africa's children on the basis of a composite index. • An evaluation of policy scenarios on the basis of a microsimulation model. The index tries to give a complex picture of the living conditions of children by looking at the financial situation, housing, health, and employment opportunities of the households the children are living in. The analysis reveals that nearly 70% of South Africa's children up to the age of six (incl.) live below the poverty line as defined. A further analysis of the household structure indicates that poorer children are likely to live in larger households. The overall policy shift from a support of single parent families to children in poverty regardless of their family status is espoused. However, the microsimulation model which analyses the impact of different factors like the 'level of benefit', the 'age-cohort', the 'means-test', and the 'administrative requirements', reveals that there are still serious flaws in the current policy. Due to the fact that the means-test is based on the total household income, nearly 40% of the children living below the poverty line are excluded. In addition, the administration needs urgent attention as its capacity is the decisive factor in the success of the programme. The thesis calculates that in the next five years up to R2 billion less will be spent on poor children and the goal of reaching 3 million children will not be achieved, if the problems identified are not addressed. The thesis develops an alternative suggestion to the current policy. While microsimulation has become quite a standard procedure in the analysis of social policies in industrialised countries, there is so far no application in developing countries. It is hoped that by taking this policy analysis as a case-study, this thesis is a step towards the introduction of this method here. Microsimulation models provide important information to enhance the transparency and accountability of policy processes. In this case, civil society was able to challenge Government's decision on a very informed basis, to put pressure on decision makers successfully, and to make workable alternative suggestions. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that against Government's promise redistribution does not take place. Instead a shift towards a more neo-liberal approach in social policy is observed.

Traffic and parking congestion are significant issues at many universities nationwide. The delays experienced result in wasted time, money, and fuel for students, faculty and staff, not to mention the negative contributions to the environment. This paper quantifies the amount of vehicle emissions generated during an average morning peak hour in the university environment. Using VISSIM and CMEM microsimulation packages, a model is created for California Polytechnic State University- San Luis Obispo to aggregate the collective transportation behaviors and practices of the campus and recognize the implications these behaviors pose on the transportation network as a whole. Reasonable estimates are generated for overall HC, CO, and NOx type emissions as well as fuel consumption. Scenarios are proposed which reflect the sensitivity of outputs to key input parameters. The findings of this research can be useful for future campus planning and the ideas can be extended to similar environments with traffic and parking problems such as business parks, corporate campuses, downtown districts, and special event venues.

Connected and automated vehicles (CVs and AVs, respectively) are rapidly emerging paradigms aiming to deploy and develop transportation systems that enable automated driving and data exchange among vehicles, infrastructure, and mobile devices to improve mobility, enhance safety, and reduce the adverse environmental impacts of transportation systems. Based on these premises, the focus of this research is to quantify the potential benefits of CVs and AVs to provide insight into how these technologies will impact road users and network performance. To assess the traffic operational performance of CVs, a connectivity-based modeling framework was developed based on traffic microsimulation for a real network in the city of Toronto. Then the effects of real-time routing guidance and advisory warning messages were studied for CVs. In addition, the impact of rerouting of non-connected vehicles (non-CVs) in response to various sources of information, such as mobile apps, GPS or VMS, was considered and evaluated. The results demonstrate the potential of such systems to improve mobility, enhance safety, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) at the network-wide level presented for different CVs market penetration. Additionally, the practical application of CVs in travel time estimation and its relationship with the number and location of roadside equipment (RSE) along freeways was investigated. A methodology was developed for determining the optimal number and location of roadside equipment (RSE) for reducing travel time estimation error in a connected vehicle environment. A simulation testbed that includes CVs was developed and implemented in the microsimulation model for Toronto 400-series highway network. The results reveal that the suggested methodology is capable of optimizing the number and location of RSEs in a connected vehicle environment. The optimization results indicate that the accuracy of travel time estimates is primarily dependent on the location of RSEs and less dependent on the total density of RSEs. In addition to CVs, the potential capacity increase of highways as a function of AVs market penetration was also studied and estimated. AVs are classified into Cooperative and Autonomous AVs. While Autonomous AVs rely only to their detection technology to sense their surroundings, Cooperative AVs, can also benefit from direct communication between vehicles and infrastructure. Cooperative car-following and lane-changing models were developed in a microsimulation model to enable AVs to maintain safe following and merging gaps. This study shows that cooperative AVs can adopt shorter gap than autonomous AVs and consequently, can significantly improve the lane capacity of highways. The achievable capacity increase for autonomous AVs appears highly insensitive to the market penetration, namely, the capacity remains within a narrow range of 2,046 to 2,238 vph irrespective of market penetration. The results of this research provide practitioners and decision-makers with knowledge regarding the potential capacity benefits of AVs with respect to market penetration and fleet conversion. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

<p>As a mid-size industrial city in North America, the City of Hamilton has been increasingly experiencing urban sprawl in the past six decades coupled with population growth and economic development. The study of various interdependent processes driving the evolution of urban form requires the application of simulation models that offer urban planners and policy-makers an efficient means for evaluating urban development policies. This thesis focuses on the modeling efforts towards building a microsimulation residential housing market system for the City of Hamilton. To this end, two major tasks have been conducted in this research. First, a state-of-the-art agent-based microsimulation housing market framework has been designed. Second, two model components in the microsimulation framework, namely a real estate appraisal model and a new housing development model, have been estimated. The objective of the real estate appraisal model is to assess the market values of existing dwellings based on the housing transactions in the previous period. Thre e model forms, including a traditional hedonic model, a spatial regression model, and a regression Kriging model, have been employed in estimations for comparison purposes. A series of independent variables that describe the characteristics of dwelling, location, and neighborhood are specified in the explanatory model. The comparisons among estimation results demonstrate that the spatial regression model has achieved a higher goodness-of-fit than the traditional hedonic model. In addition, we verified that spatial autocorrelation is present in the residuals of the traditional hedonic model, which is explicitly captured by the spatial regression model. In terms of model prediction accuracy, spatial models (SAR and Kriging) both achieve a certain level of improvements over the traditional hedonic model. Overall, we end up recommending that the SAR model is more appropriate to be incorporated into the microsimulation framework, as it provides the best match between predicted and observed values. The new housing development model enables the development of a dynamic housing supply module in the simulation framework by modeling the location and type decisions during the housing development process for each year. A parcel -level two-tier nested-logit model has been estimated. The model is able to deal with not only the decision to develop a specific vacant residential land parcel, but also the development type choice. In terms of the factors influencing the decision to develop, the picture revealed from the model estimation results is that land developers are more likely to start a development project in greenfields than in brownfields. As for the type choice decision during the development process, a variety of variables describing transportation accessibility, residential amenities, the characteristics of the land parcel and neighborhood are included in the model specifications.</p> / Master of Arts (MA)

The aim of this thesis is to explore the quantitative potential to reduce energy requirements and CO2 emissions through changed patterns of consumption, given unchanged levels of consumption expenditure. The thesis question is analysed using a systems analysis approach which in this case means that life cycle assessment data on energy requirements and CO2 emissions related to household consumption are combined with a financial and behavioural analysis to make sure that the budget constraint is kept and that both the first and second order effects of adopting a green consumption pattern are analysed. The budget constraints are kept using a general linear model. By using marginal propensities to spend to direct the reallocation of saved or deficit money calculated utility is maintained as far as possible. Further, investigations explore the impact of individual household demographic characteristics and geographic context on household consumption patterns, energy requirements and CO2 emissions. The key result of this thesis is that changed household behaviour, choosing “green“ products and energy efficient technology will not make a big difference. What can be achieved in the short time perspective by adopting an almost completely green consumption pattern and energy efficient technology is a reduction of energy requirements by around 8% and CO2 emissions by around 13%. With a longer time perspective and further technological change that provides additional possibilities to move consumption patterns in a greener direction, the effect on energy requirements and CO2 emissions is still fairly small. By 2020, the potential to reduce energy requirements is around 13% and CO2 emissions around 25%. In the most extreme scenario (2050), the scope for reducing energy requirements is 17% and for CO2 emissions 30%. All these reductions will be outpaced by growth in income almost as soon as they are implemented. Of policy relevance the results reveal that very limited impact can be expected by a policy relying on greener consumption patterns, whether adopted voluntarily or as a result of incentives such as tax changes. Such a policy cannot achieve more than a small and temporary reduction to growth in energy requirements and CO2 emissions. It is also shown that, prescribing specific consumption patterns as a means of reducing energy requirements and CO2 emissions has to be done with care. This is illustrated by one of the experiments in which adopting a partly green consumption pattern, a green diet, in fact increased total energy requirements and CO2 emissions. This, and the results of all the other experiments show the importance of applying a systems approach. It demonstrates that life cycle data alone are irrelevant for assessing the total effects of adopting green consumption patterns. Further research on the potential to reduce energy requirements and CO2 emissions thus primarily needs to better capture system wide effects rather than to improve on, and fine tune the measurement of the energy requirements and CO2 emissions related to individual products.