In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relation between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward potential policies and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s household-fleet evolution. Results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are vehicle purchase price, type/class, and fuel economy (with 30%, 21% and 19% of respondents placing these in their top three). Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would seriously consider purchasing a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6,000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings. 25-year simulations suggest that 19% of Austin’s vehicle fleet could be comprised of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and PHEVs under adoption of a feebate policy (along with PHEV availability in Year 1 of the simulation, and current gas prices throughout). Under all scenarios vehicle usage levels (in total vehicle miles traveled [VMT]) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (per household, and per capita); and a feebate policy is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 4.43 percent, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO2 emissions only slightly (by 3.8 percent, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 17% and CO2 emissions by 22% (relative to trend). Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. And HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent a major share of the fleet’s VMT (25%) by year 25 under the feebate scenario. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet), yet feebate-policy receipts exceed rebates in each simulation year. A 15% reduction in the usage levels of SUVs, CUVs and minivans is observed in the $5/gallon scenario (relative to trend). Mean use levels per vehicle of HEVs and PHEVs are simulated to have a variation of 753 and 495 across scenarios. In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have even more significant effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. / text

O presente trabalho trata da avaliação de medidas voltadas à distribuição urbana de cargas considerando ser essa uma etapa fundamental do processo de tomada de decisão, pois permite a análise dos possíveis resultados acerca dos objetivos pretendidos, os quais geralmente estão relacionados à diminuição dos congestionamentos de veículos e das emissões de gases poluentes. Considerando que grande parte dos problemas decorrentes da distribuição urbana ocorrem localmente, no nível desagregado, propõe-se um procedimento que dê subsídios ao desenvolvimento de uma metodologia para a avaliação de medidas através da microssimulação de tráfego. Isso porque a microssimulação permite um alto nível de detalhe na modelagem e na observação do comportamento dos veículos, o que é essencial para a quantificação dos possíveis impactos locais gerados pelos veículos de carga. A integração entre as coletas de dados e os modelos que compõem o procedimento forneceu os dados necessários à representação dos movimentos dos veículos de carga no VISSIM, onde foram simulados três diferentes cenários, cada um representando alterações impostas por diferentes medidas em avaliação. A aplicação do procedimento proposto, a modelagem no VISSIM e os resultados da microssimulação permitiram a ponderação sobre o uso dessa técnica para a avaliação de medidas voltadas à distribuição urbana de cargas, considerando suas vantagens e limitações. / The present research deals with the evaluation of urban freight policies, considering this is fundamental for the decision making process of a policy implementation. Evaluation allows an analysis of the possible policy effects compared to its intended objectives, which are generally related to reductions in traffic congestion and pollutant emissions. Whereas most of the problems caused by urban distribution occur locally, in the disaggregated level, we propose a procedure that supports the development of a methodology for evaluating freight policies through traffic microsimulation. That\'s because this technique allows a high level of detail in modeling and observation of vehicles\' behavior, which is essential for quantifying the likely local impacts generated by freight vehicles. The procedure is based on a set of integrated data collections and models, which provided the data for representing freight vehicles movement in VISSIM, were three different scenarios, each one representing changes imposed by different freight policies, were simulated. The application of the proposed procedure, the VISSIM\'s modeling process and the microsimulation results allowed the weighing for the use of this technique in evaluating urban freight policies, considering its advantages and limitations.

La presente tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una alternativa de solución para mejorar la seguridad del peatón en la intersección Av. Los Héroes con Calle Antonio Buckingham en el distrito de San Juan de Miraflores. La investigación engloba 7 capítulos más las conclusiones, recomendaciones, bibliografía, anexos y planos. El primer, segundo y tercer capítulo abarcan generalidades, marco teórico y la descripción del software Vissim 9, respectivamente. En el cuarto capítulo se realizó un diagnóstico de la situación actual que permitió identificar las deficiencias que generan inseguridad al peatón en el sistema vial. De esta manera, se propusieron soluciones desde el punto de vista peatonal mediante el análisis de tránsito con la metodología del HCM 2010. Existen tres escenarios, el primero es la configuración actual de la vía, de la cual se hace el respectivo análisis vehicular y peatonal, en el segundo escenario se plantea una propuesta de medidas de gestión (semaforización, señalización y cambios geométricos) que funcionan como un sistema eficiente, coordinado y seguro. Finalmente, en el tercer escenario se desarrolla el análisis de la proyección futura de la propuesta. El quinto y sexto capítulo incluyen la propuesta detallada de infraestructura vial y señalización; y la modelación microscópica de la intersección en el software VISSIM 9, respectivamente. El séptimo capítulo desarrolla el análisis, evaluación y validación de la propuesta, esta última mediante juicio de expertos. Al finalizar la investigación se llega la conclusión de que las medidas de gestión adoptadas como solución a la problemática mejorará la intersección de forma efectiva si se implementan. / The objective of this thesis is to establish an alternative solution to improve pedestrian safety at the intersection Los Heroes Avenue with Antonio Buckingham Street in the district of San Juan de Miraflores. The research includes 7 chapters plus conclusions, recommendations, bibliography and annexes. The first, second and third chapters cover generalities, the theoretical framework and the description of the Vissim 9 software, respectively. In the fourth chapter, a diagnosis was made of the current situation that allowed identifying the deficiencies that generate insecurity for pedestrians in the road system. In this way, solutions were proposed from the pedestrian point of view through the traffic analysis with the HCM 2010 methodology. There are three scenarios, the first is the current configuration of the road, from which the respective vehicular and pedestrian analysis is made, in the second scenario, a proposal of management measures is proposed (traffic light, signaling and geometric changes) that function as an efficient, coordinated and secure system. Finally, in the third scenario, the analysis of the future projection of the proposal is developed. The fifth and sixth chapters include the detailed proposal of road infrastructure and signaling; and the microscopic modeling of the intersection in the VISSIM 9 software, respectively. The seventh chapter develops the analysis, evaluation and validation of the proposal, the latter through expert judgment. At the end of the investigation, the conclusion is reached that the management measures adopted as a solution to the problem will improve the intersection effectively if they are implemented. / Tesis

In this thesis, a microsimulation model was developed using methods which were intended to overcome the main criticism of earlier models developed in Australia - that their estimation of the distribution of health benefits1 across income groups was not accurate. To determine whether the new model � called the Person Level Model of Pharmaceutical Benefits (PLM-PB) � was more accurate, two typical means-based models were also built to replicate the most commonly used methods in Australia. A comparison of the results of the three models revealed that while they produced comparable results at the aggregate when compared with administrative data, the PLM-PB was much more accurate in capturing distributional differences by beneficiary and medication type. The PLM-PB also indicated that, as anticipated, PBS benefits were more pro-poor than earlier means-based models had suggested. The PLM-PB had another important advantage in that the method also captured the variation in the use of medication and thus the subsidy received within sub-populations. As the PLM-PB was found to be more accurate than the means-based model, a multivariate analysis of the distribution of PBS subsidy across a number of socio-economic groups was undertaken as an example application of the model. It was found that health status (defined by number of recent illnesses) and concession card type were most important in explaining the amount of PBS subsidy received. This indicates that the distribution of PBS expenditure meets the policy objectives of assisting those most in need, whether need is defined as poor health or low income. 1 Benefits refer to expenditure as transfers from government to individuals rather than the general health benefits of using medication.

Le travail présenté dans cette thèse a pour cadre la prévention des risques et la gestion de crises nécessitant une évacuation. La structure du réseau viaire est étudiée mais également les processus de mobilité qui s'y développent. Nous utilisons en particulier des techniques d'intelligence en essaim pour étudier la morphodynamique du réseau. La prévention des risques est considérée en analysant la vulnérabilité du réseau représenté par un multigraphe. Sa structure est étudiée à différents niveaux d'échelle, par des méthodes de calcul de la centralité d'intermédiarité et de clustering hiérarchique. La gestion de crise lors d'une évacuation a aussi été traitée et a conduit à l'étude de la dynamique des déplacements au sein du réseau routier et à un traitement et une analyse multi-échelle. Nous avons développé un modèle microscopique de trafic ainsi qu'un modèle de microévacuation permettant d'organiser une évacuation depuis l'occurrence de la crise jusqu'à l'évacuation des véhicules en passant par la délimitation d'éventuelles zones en danger et par les stratégies de choix d'itinéraires afin de les évacuer. Le modèle est adaptatif, il prend en compte la structure du multigraphe, la vulnérabilité des éléments à différents niveaux d'échelle, les événements inattendus lors d'une évacuation et permet d'amener des éléments de réponse aux décideurs gérant le risque.

Public transit is becoming an increasing important field of study to combat global issues such as traffic congestion and climate change. Accurate simulation of public transit is therefore likewise vital, as it is an important tool for understanding potential impacts of public transit policies. The research presented in this thesis describes the implementation of a multimodal, dynamic, agent-based supply-side simulation model of public transit implemented in the open-source platform MATSim for the city of Toronto. Transit schedule data was converted from Google Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) and map-matched to a region-wide road network to obtain a congestion-based multimodal assignment for transit. Volume-based results from the assignment showed under-prediction of subway volumes and slight over-prediction of bus volumes, but were generally comparable with static EMME/3 assignment for the same data. Travel time analysis indicated that further calibration of network specification is needed.

Public transit is becoming an increasing important field of study to combat global issues such as traffic congestion and climate change. Accurate simulation of public transit is therefore likewise vital, as it is an important tool for understanding potential impacts of public transit policies. The research presented in this thesis describes the implementation of a multimodal, dynamic, agent-based supply-side simulation model of public transit implemented in the open-source platform MATSim for the city of Toronto. Transit schedule data was converted from Google Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) and map-matched to a region-wide road network to obtain a congestion-based multimodal assignment for transit. Volume-based results from the assignment showed under-prediction of subway volumes and slight over-prediction of bus volumes, but were generally comparable with static EMME/3 assignment for the same data. Travel time analysis indicated that further calibration of network specification is needed.

O presente trabalho trata da avaliação de medidas voltadas à distribuição urbana de cargas considerando ser essa uma etapa fundamental do processo de tomada de decisão, pois permite a análise dos possíveis resultados acerca dos objetivos pretendidos, os quais geralmente estão relacionados à diminuição dos congestionamentos de veículos e das emissões de gases poluentes. Considerando que grande parte dos problemas decorrentes da distribuição urbana ocorrem localmente, no nível desagregado, propõe-se um procedimento que dê subsídios ao desenvolvimento de uma metodologia para a avaliação de medidas através da microssimulação de tráfego. Isso porque a microssimulação permite um alto nível de detalhe na modelagem e na observação do comportamento dos veículos, o que é essencial para a quantificação dos possíveis impactos locais gerados pelos veículos de carga. A integração entre as coletas de dados e os modelos que compõem o procedimento forneceu os dados necessários à representação dos movimentos dos veículos de carga no VISSIM, onde foram simulados três diferentes cenários, cada um representando alterações impostas por diferentes medidas em avaliação. A aplicação do procedimento proposto, a modelagem no VISSIM e os resultados da microssimulação permitiram a ponderação sobre o uso dessa técnica para a avaliação de medidas voltadas à distribuição urbana de cargas, considerando suas vantagens e limitações. / The present research deals with the evaluation of urban freight policies, considering this is fundamental for the decision making process of a policy implementation. Evaluation allows an analysis of the possible policy effects compared to its intended objectives, which are generally related to reductions in traffic congestion and pollutant emissions. Whereas most of the problems caused by urban distribution occur locally, in the disaggregated level, we propose a procedure that supports the development of a methodology for evaluating freight policies through traffic microsimulation. That\'s because this technique allows a high level of detail in modeling and observation of vehicles\' behavior, which is essential for quantifying the likely local impacts generated by freight vehicles. The procedure is based on a set of integrated data collections and models, which provided the data for representing freight vehicles movement in VISSIM, were three different scenarios, each one representing changes imposed by different freight policies, were simulated. The application of the proposed procedure, the VISSIM\'s modeling process and the microsimulation results allowed the weighing for the use of this technique in evaluating urban freight policies, considering its advantages and limitations.

Cette thèse porte sur la modélisation de la dynamique des populations et de ses applications, à la démographie et l’actuariat d’une part, et à l’étude des processus de Hawkes d’autre part. Ces travaux de thèse proposent d’explorer à travers différents points de vue comment se déforme la structure d’une population, tant concernant la répartition des âges que sa composition en terme de caractéristiques. À travers cinq chapitres, nous déclinons une même philosophie qui, pour comprendre comment évoluent des quantités agrégées, propose d’étudier la dynamique de la population à une échelle plus fine, celle de l’individu. Après un premier chapitre introductif en langue française, détaillant les motivations et les principales contributions, nous proposons d’abord dans le Chapitre 2 la description du cadre général de la modélisation dynamique aléatoire de populations structurées en caractéristiques et en âges, sur la base de Bensusan et al. (2010–2015), ainsi que plusieurs exemples motivés par les applications démographiques et actuarielles. Nous détaillons la construction mathématique de tels processus ainsi que le lien avec les équations déterministes classiques en démographie. Nous discutons également l’impact de l’hétérogénéité sur l’exemple d’un effet cohorte, ainsi que le rôle de l’environnement aléatoire. Les deux chapitres suivants mettent en avant l’importance de la pyramide des âges. Le modèle de population général issu du Chapitre 2 est décliné dans le Chapitre 3 pour étudier des processus de Hawkes avec immigrants généraux, pour lesquels nous exploitons le concept de pyramide des âges. Dans cette étude théorique, basée sur Boumezoued (2015b), nous établissons de nouveaux résultats sur leur distribution pour une classe de fonctions qui généralisent le cas exponentiel étudié jusqu’ici. Dans le Chapitre 4, qui reprend Arnold et al. (2015), nous analysons l’impact de changements dans la mortalité par causes de décès sur la dynamique de la pyramide des âges, et en particulier sur le ratio de dépendance qui est un indicateur crucial du vieillissement de la population. En incluant le jeu des naissances dans la dynamique, ce travail de simulations, basé sur les données de l’OMS, permet de compléter la littérature existante sur les causes de décès qui se focalise traditionnellement sur des indicateurs de mortalité. Les deux derniers chapitres étudient plus particulièrement l’hétérogénéité des populations. Le Chapitre 5, basé sur Boumezoued et al. (2015), propose de mesurer l’hétérogénéité de la mortalité dans les données de l’Échantillon Démographique Permanent de l’INSEE. Dans le cadre de cette contribution d’adaptation de méthodes statistiques et de sa mise en oeuvre sur données réelles, nous proposons une méthode d’estimation paramétrique par maximum de vraisemblance pour les modèles multi-états qui prend en compte à la fois la censure par intervalle, caractéristique des données longitudinales issues du recensement, et également le retour dans les états intermédiaires. Enfin, le Chapitre 6, tiré de Boumezoued (2015a), reprend le modèle général du Chapitre 2 dans lequel les individus peuvent donner naissance, changer de caractéristiques et décéder. La contribution de cette partie théorique est d’étudier le comportement de la population lorsque les caractéristiques individuelles changent fréquemment. Nous établissons un thèorème limite en grande population pour le processus de pyramide des âges, dont le comportement est alors décrit par des taux de naissance et mort agrégés sur la structure stable en terme de caractéristiques. / This thesis focuses on population dynamics models and their applications, on one hand to demography and actuarial science, and on the other hand to Hawkes processes. This work explores through several viewpoints how population structures evolve over time, both in terms of ages and characteristics. In five chapters, we develop a common philosophy which studies the population at the scale of the individual in order to better understand the behavior of aggregate quantities. The first chapter introduces the motivations and details the main contributions in French. In Chapter 2, based on Bensusan et al. (2010–2015), we survey the modeling of characteristic and age-structured populations and their dynamics, as well as several examples motivated by demographic issues. We detail the mathematical construction of such population processes, as well as their link with well known deterministic equations in demography. We illustrate the simulation algorithm on an example of cohort effect, and we also discuss the role of the random environment. The two following chapters emphasize on the importance of the age pyramid. Chapter 3 uses a particular form of the general model introduced in Chapter 2 in order to study Hawkes processes with general immigrants. In this theoretical part based on Boumezoued (2015b) we use the concept of age pyramid to derive new distribution properties for a class of fertility functions which generalize the popular exponential case. Chapter 4 is based on Arnold et al. (2015) and analyses the impact of cause-of- death mortality changes on the population age pyramid, and in particular on the dependency ratio which is crucial to measure population ageing. By including birth patterns, this numerical work based on WHO data gives additional insights compared to the existing literature on causes of death focusing only on mortality indicators. The last two chapters focus on population heterogeneity. The aim of Chapter 5, based on Boumezoued et al. (2015), is to measure mortality heterogeneity on French longitudinal data called Échantillon Démographique Permanent. In this work, inspired by recent advances in the statistical literature, we develop a parametric maximum likelihood method for multi-state models which takes into account both interval censoring and reversible transitions. Finally, Chapter 6, based on Boumezoued (2015a), considers the general model introduced in Chapter 2 in which individuals can give birth, change their characteristics and die. The contribution of this theoretical work is the analysis of the population behavior when individual characteristics change very often. We establish a large population limit theorem for the age pyramid process, whose dynamics is described at the limit by birth and death rates which are averaged over the stable population composition.

Pedestrian walking and choice behavior presented was first studied by Fruin in 1971, and since then a lot of research have been carried out in order to understand how humans move and what does make them make choices and obtain certain patterns. In relation to pedestrians, a significant bottleneck inside public stations evaluated by research are the level-change facilities, as Stair Walks and Escalators. The aim of this research is studying how pedestrian behave in the vicinity to stairways and escalators, and how does that affect pedestrian choice, speed and acceleration when choosing one of the two facilities. Also, with a need for more data on pedestrian traffic, further data collection is a big requirement to analyze their behavior and use as tools in future measures. At last, how to optimize the movement of pedestrians in relation to level changes, considering the effects of the movements observed. Two case studies were analysed, Stockholm Central Station and Uppsala Central Station.The study compares data collection methods, tracking methods and previous studies to better fit the scope of this research. The data is backed up from previous research and explains which method better fitted the options available. As a result, video data collection was chosen to collect the data, a semi-automatic tracking software called T-analyst was used to extract speed, trajectories and acceleration from the videos, and microsimulation modelling from VISSIM further investigated different design options to optimize the overall performance and improve travel time in the same area. The analysis found out that there was a possibility to increase the overall performance of the location in higher flow levels, where the most significant queues could be seen, since there was the possibility to achieve higher speeds by modifying the width and position of the stair walks, which allow for a smaller queue in both directions.