Thesis advisor: Harold Petersen / Minsky developed a Financial Instability Hypothesis which sought to find an endogenous explanation for a modern economy’s vulnerability to crashes. Specifically, he investigated the ways in which the financial structures of a modern economy might contribute to its instability. The hypothesis rests upon the twin assertions that some financial arrangements are more dangerous than others, and that during economic booms, investors’ incentives are altered to favor these more dangerous arrangements. Essentially, in good times, the profit-seeking motive of investors overrides a diminished risk aversion, as memories of losses fade into the past. This paper empirically tests Minsky’s second assertion, by using econometric techniques to analyze the relationship between risk appetite and market returns. Spreads between the yields of bonds of different credit qualities are used as a proxy for wider investor sentiment toward risk. Regressions demonstrate that changes in risk appetite can be explained at least in part by historical market returns. Such a finding supports Minsky’s proposal that incentives of investors change in response to varying market conditions. It further implies that regulatory authorities might examine the level of risk appetite to determine whether increases in asset prices indicate the formation of speculative bubbles or are rather reflecting developments in the fundamentals underlying said assets. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2010. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: College Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

This dissertation seeks to reengage the field of political economy to establish a political response to financial crisis, as well as the resulting social crisis of everyday life, using the political economy of Hyman P. Minsky. As an academic field, political economy is in a strange kind of limbo. The separation of politics and economics is easy enough to see, and even within economics, there is another cleavage between economics proper and the history of economics. This yields some very strange conjectures about what it means to be an "economist," and how things can be a matter for either economic "policy" or "political economy" as if these categories were all jumbled up in a grab bag of available methodologies. This dissertation seeks to carve out some intellectual terrain in what can be called political economy by engaging in an interdisciplinary way, inspired by Minsky, in order to offer a cogent political analysis of financial crises. Minsky gives five possible definitions for political economy: the discipline of Economics, a code name for Marxism, rational choice theory of profit maximization, the management of macroeconomic policy, and finally an interdisciplinary view of political economy that works in concert with other social sciences and humanities in order to identify and remedy social ills such as unemployment and poverty. The reading of Minsky in this dissertation is thus in an explicitly political way in order to bridge the gap between various kinds of economics and the various social sciences. By analyzing and critiquing each of these possible definitions of political economy, it becomes clear that a properly social definition of political economy is the final, interdisciplinary one. This dissertation argues that Minsky had a "preanalytic vision" of the kind of society he wished his political economy to yield, and is a first step in fleshing out a political program for that vision. / Ph. D.

Orientador: Simone Silva de Deos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T16:06:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ramos_LumaSouza_M.pdf: 2334727 bytes, checksum: f53346f9edf5549c88e52ec74363fe6e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: A partir de 2003-2004, inaugurou-se um novo ciclo conjuntural virtuoso na economia brasileira. Ao longo da conjuntura de expansão, as perspectivas e performances dos agentes nacionais se diferenciaram, aproveitando um leque mais amplo de oportunidades que se abriu. As corporações brasileiras utilizaram as melhorias no cenário interno e externo para aprimorar os seus parques industriais, os modelos de gestão, as estratégias concorrenciais e as estruturas patrimoniais. Elas também intensificaram os investimentos em participação e aquisição de outras corporações; direcionaram seus esforços rumo ao crescimento das operações, à diversificação, à sofisticação das aplicações financeiras e à internacionalização das plantas produtivas. Nesse cenário, destaca-se um episódio singular para a economia do Brasil: um conjunto de empresas não-financeiras nacionais apresentaram perdas importantes e se encontraram em situações de de ausência de liquidez e, em alguns casos, insolvência e que, por conseguinte, deram origem à reestruturações organizacionais. Aproximadamente duzentas empresas, segundo dados do BNDES (2011), estavam operando com alta alavancagem no mercado de câmbio e especulando por uma apreciação do real frente ao dólar, em operações target forward. A partir desse entendimento, o objetivo desse trabalho é, com base no arcabouço teórico minskyano, em especial sua hipótese da instabilidade financeira, e tendo como referência as características específicas da economia brasileira, analisar o caso das corporações brasileiras envolvidas em especulação com derivativos cambiais, em 2008. Usar-se-á, nesse intuito, um episódio representativo, o da Sadia (SADIA S.A.). A tipificação deste caso pode ora se contrapor às mudanças nos instrumentos de atuação e opções estratégicas do empresariado nacional, ora comprovar a existência de um capitalismo brasileiro contraditório que leva a sequentes crises e flutuações econômicas. A hipótese que permeará a discussão é que certas empresas brasileiras no momento de bonança e relativa estabilidade macroeconômica, aproveitando-se das demais características existentes no período compreendido entre 2003-2008, passaram a se posicionar, crescentemente, de forma alavancada e especulativa no mercado financeiro, a fim de obterem maiores rendimentos não operacionais no curto prazo, fenômeno este que pode ser enquadrado na perspectiva da Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira (HIF) de Minsky. Tal comportamento pode ser associado à idéia minskyana de que em períodos de relativa estabilidade e/ou de crescimento econômico, os agentes, ao terem suas expectativas concretizadas e, com consequente, aumento de lucratividade, tendem a diminuir suas percepções de risco, a se alavancarem e, por conseguinte, a deteriorarem suas margens de segurança. Desta forma, períodos de relativa estabilidade conduzem e germinam as sementes para a instabilidade e para as crises. Logo, as conjunturas econômicas, internas e externas, influenciam na tomada de decisão e na alocação dos portfólios dos agentes / Abstract: From 2003-2004, started a new virtuous economic cycle in the Brazilian economy. Along the scenario of expansion, the prospects and performance of national officials differed by leveraging a wide range of opportunities opened. Brazilian corporations used the improvements in the internal and external environment to enhance its industrial parks, business models, competitive strategies and equity structures. They also stepped up investments in participation and acquiring other corporations; directed their operations towards growth, diversification, sophistication of financial investments and internationalization of production plant's efforts. In this scenario, there is a unique episode for Brazil's economy: a set of national non-financial companies reported major losses and found themselves in situations of lack of liquidity and, sometimes, insolvency and therefore gave rise to organizational restructuring. Approximately two hundred companies, according to data from BNDES (2011), were operating with high leverage in the foreign exchange market and speculating on the real appreciation against the dollar in target forward operations. The aim of this work is with a minskian theoretical framework, in particular his financial instability hypothesis, and with reference to the specific characteristics of the Brazilian economy, consider the case of Brazilian corporations involved in speculation on currency derivatives, in 2008. In this order, this study will analyze a representative episode, the Sadia (Sadia SA). This case interpretation can sometimes counteract the changes in the instruments of action and strategic options of the national business, now prove the existence of an adversarial Brazilian capitalism that leads to sequential crises and economic fluctuations. The hypothesis that will permeate the discussion is that certain Brazilian companies at the time of prosperity and relative macroeconomic stability, taking advantage of other existing features in the period 2003-2008, began to put themselves, increasingly so leveraged and speculative financial market to get higher non-operating income in the short-term, a phenomenon that can fix in the context of the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) Minsky. Such behavior could be associated with minskian idea that during periods of relative stability and / or economic growth, the agents when they realized their expectations and, so, increased profitability, tend to decrease their risk perceptions, to leverage and therefore, the safety margins deteriorate. Therefore, periods of relative stability and lead germinate the seeds of instability and seizures. So, economically, internal and external contexts influence in decision-making and allocation of portfolios of agents / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestra em Ciências Econômicas

Through the study's analysis with background to theories and previous research, it turns out that financial instability is hidden in boom and economic stability. Where causes are speculation, optimism, risk-taking and credit expansion. Minsky (1982a) pointed out, among other things, that high debt ratio increases the risk of financial instability, which is an effect of the lavish lending, partly as a result of global financing. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there was a state of financial instability prior to Sweden's crises, focusing on Sweden's three most recent crises: the financial crisis of 1990, the IT bubble of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008. The study illustrates how Minsky's financial instability hypothesis that "stability breeds instability" also can explain the emergence of Swedish crises. The result shows that there is a clear link between increased debt before crises. / Genom studiens analys med bakgrund till teorier och tidigare forskning visar det sig att finansiell instabilitet döljer sig i högkonjunktur och ekonomisk stabilitet. Där orsaker som ligger till grund är spekulation, optimism, risktagning och kreditexpansion. Minsky (1982a) pekade bland annat på att hög skuldkvot ökar risken för finansiell instabilitet, något som är en effekt av den frikostiga kreditgivningen, bland annat som en följd av den globala finansieringen. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om där funnits ett tillstånd av finansiell instabilitet innan Sveriges kriser, med fokus på Sveriges tre senaste kriser: finanskrisen 1990, it-bubblan 2000 och finanskrisen 2008. Studien åskådliggör hur Minskys finansiella instabilitetshypotes om att "stability breeds instability" även kan förklara uppkomsten av svenska kriser. Resultatet visar på att det finns ett tydligt samband mellan ökad skuldsättning innan kriser.

<p><strong><p>Title</p><p>The anatomy of financial crises and the current one´s effects on the Swedish<strong> economy.</strong></p><p>Authors</p>Ifete Binaku and Niklas Holmström<strong><p>Background</p></strong></strong></p><p>The subprime crisis started in the United States, but was soon transmitted to other<strong> </strong>countries and even to Sweden. The impact of the financial crisis has had negative consequences for the Swedish real economy, especially in its output. Since Sweden is a big exporting country, its macro economy has been negatively affected by the present global financial crisis.</p><p><strong><p>Purpose</p></strong></p><p>We are interesting to illustrate how the theories can explain the causes and effects<strong> </strong>of financial crises. Therefore, the aim of this study is simply to acquire knowledge on how the impacts on the Swedish economy can be described by theories on financial crises.<strong> </strong></p><p> </p><p>Method</p><p> </p><p>The theoretical models guided our choices of the financial and economic<strong> i</strong>ndicators. The thesis employed a quantitative research approach where the empirical materials are collected from the yearly data period: 2005 to 2009. The secondary analysis has been applied where yeas 2005 to 2009 were selected in order to get an overview of variables developments before financial crises started and in meantime.</p><p><strong><p>Results</p></strong></p><p>Our findings showed that the financial crisis has affected the Swedish economy negatively. Furthermore, the repercussion on the Swedish economy can be better explained by certain parts of the theories combined, than by one theory left alone.</p><p> </p>

Title The anatomy of financial crises and the current one´s effects on the Swedish economy. Authors Ifete Binaku and Niklas HolmströmBackground The subprime crisis started in the United States, but was soon transmitted to other countries and even to Sweden. The impact of the financial crisis has had negative consequences for the Swedish real economy, especially in its output. Since Sweden is a big exporting country, its macro economy has been negatively affected by the present global financial crisis. Purpose We are interesting to illustrate how the theories can explain the causes and effects of financial crises. Therefore, the aim of this study is simply to acquire knowledge on how the impacts on the Swedish economy can be described by theories on financial crises.   Method   The theoretical models guided our choices of the financial and economic indicators. The thesis employed a quantitative research approach where the empirical materials are collected from the yearly data period: 2005 to 2009. The secondary analysis has been applied where yeas 2005 to 2009 were selected in order to get an overview of variables developments before financial crises started and in meantime. Results Our findings showed that the financial crisis has affected the Swedish economy negatively. Furthermore, the repercussion on the Swedish economy can be better explained by certain parts of the theories combined, than by one theory left alone.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-13T13:27:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2015-09-22. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2016-01-13T13:31:09Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000856006.pdf: 1011962 bytes, checksum: ae9cc4f639460c8cca986610b4227af7 (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / O capitalismo se reproduz através de processos contraditórios. O sistema, em sua fase mais moderna, de acumulação financeirizada, tende a crises especulativas que os mecanismos de mercado não são capazes de regular. Esse é o argumento de teóricos da corrente pós-keynesiana que se propõem a investigar quais comportamentos geram e agravam crises financeiras. Depois da crise iniciada no sistema financeiro norte-americano, Hyman Minsky (1919-1996), pouco abordado até então, voltou ao debate sobre o funcionamento do sistema financeiro e sua regulamentação. Para muitos, a trajetória percorrida pela economia mundial e a ruptura do sistema financeiro se enquadram nas análises do autor, a ponto de ser possível considerar ter havido um Momento Minsky: um profundo e repentino colapso precedido por calmaria e bonança. Através da caracterização da abordagem de Minsky, essa dissertação se propõe a avançar no entendimento do sistema financeiro à procura das causas e corretivos da fragilidade financeira ilustrada pela crise subprime recente / Capitalism reproduces itself through contradictory processes. The system, in its latest phase of financialized accumulation tends to speculative crisis that market mechanisms are not able to regulate. This is the post-Keynesians theoretical argument that intend to investigate what behaviors determine and aggravate the crisis. After the crisis that had trigger in the US financial system, the Post Keynesian Hyman Minsky (1919 - 1996), little explored so far, returned to the discourses of the function of the financial system and its regulation. For many, the road taken by the world economy and the breakdown of the financial system fit into the analysis of the author as to be possible to consider that there was a Minsky moment: a deep and sudden collapse preceded by lull and calm. Through the characterization of Minsky's methodology, this dissertation aims to advance the understanding of the financial system in search for the causes and remedies of Minsky fragility illustrated by the recent subprime crisis

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-24T20:54:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lourenco_AndreLuisCabralde_M.pdf: 568765 bytes, checksum: ac09978322f35dcea2694233897347d2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 1999 / Mestrado

Dans le cadre de l’analyse des crises financières au sein des pays émergents, de nombreux travaux sont venus expliquer l’occurrence de ce genre de phénomènes. Pourtant, des faits nouveaux se manifestent sans pour autant s’inscrire dans les recherches déjà proposées (Brésil, Corée du Sud et pays d’Europe centrale et orientale principalement). En référence à cette littérature, la thèse pose en retour la question de l’incidence de la contagion financière sur la dégradation des fondamentaux macroéconomiques et macro-financiers de pays émergents susceptibles d’être initialement considérés comme « robustes ». La réponse passe par la mise en évidence des principales composantes des crises financières pour en extraire les limites face à l’hypothèse soulevée. La description des stratégies de rattrapage économique, par l’intégration au marché financier international, est à l’origine des vulnérabilités potentielles dans les effets de contagion. La structure instable de l’endettement international, à l’aide de l’Hypothèse d’Instabilité Financière de Minsky (1974), va offrir les éléments théoriques nécessaires à la modélisation des faits empiriques. Les premières générations de crises de change viendront conceptualiser la fuite des capitaux en attribuant la responsabilité de la contraction de la liquidité au reste du monde. Dans la transition qu’ils opèrent actuellement en vue de leur adhésion à l’UEM, les PECO ne peuvent être considérés comme étant à l’abri de la survenance de crises financières, et ce même s’ils bénéficient des impacts stabilisateurs favorables liés à leur appartenance à l’UE. Mais disposent-ils alors des facteurs de robustesse macroéconomique et macro-financière s / As part of the analysis of financial crises in emerging countries, many studies have come to explain the occurrence of such phenomena. However, developments occur without enrolling in research already available (Brazil, South Korea and countries in Central and Eastern Europe mainly). In reference to this literature, the thesis in turn raises the question of the impact of financial contagion on the degradation of macro-economic fundamentals and emerging countries' financial might initially be regarded as "robust." The answer lies in the identification of key components of financial crises to extract the limits against the hypothesis raised. The description of the strategies of economic recovery, by the international financial market integration, is the source of potential vulnerabilities in the contagion. The unstable structure of international debt, with the financial instability hypothesis of Minsky (1974), will provide the theoretical elements necessary for modeling of empirical facts. The first generation of currency crises will conceptualize capital flight by assigning responsibility for the liquidity squeeze in the world. In the transition they currently operate with a view to joining EMU, the Central and Eastern Europe countries cannot be considered safe from the occurrence of financial crises, even if they have favorable impacts associated with stabilizers membership in the EU. But then they have robust macroeconomic factors and macro-financial enough to ward off the economic impact of any pressure by contagion? The empirical part of the thesis should answer the question through analytical and econometric modeling

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tatiana Matie Itikawa.pdf: 1349758 bytes, checksum: f16f64c34fa40b4a30123c2ef8ab1489 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-22 / Since the implementation of Plano Real, Brazilian s economy has been getting significant changes that have brought stability and sophistication to the financial system. In addition, since 2004, the Brazilian s investment funds industry has been going through regulatory changes that made it corresponds to 30% of GDP and is the 6th largest in the world. Based on the theory of financial instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky, we intent to analyze the Brazilian investment funds from 2004 to June 2009: a period when the Brazilian economy shifts from stability to instability / Desde a implantação do Plano Real a economia brasileira vem conseguindo mudanças significativas que trouxeram estabilidade e sofisticação ao sistema financeiro. Alem disso, desde 2004, a indústria brasileira de fundos de investimento vem passando por transformações regulatórias que fizeram com que ela corresponda a 30% do PIB e seja a 6º maior do mundo. Com base na teoria da Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira de Hyman Minsky que pretende-se analisar a indústria brasileira de fundos de 2004 a junho de 2009: um período em que a economia brasileira passa da estabilidade para a instabilidade