Thesis advisor: Harold Petersen / According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), speculative bubbles do not exist and are impossible. We disagree. If prices are the only observable component of an asset’s value, and they themselves are an aggregated consensus of perceived value, then what about the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is testable? Rather than assume that prices always reflect value (i.e. perfect market efficiency), we maintain that markets are efficient to the extent that one can be confident that tomorrow’s prices will not diverge dramatically or arbitrarily from today’s prices, absent significant new information. Speculative bubbles are not materializing every day, every month, or even every year. But they do have the potential and indeed a tendency to occur from time to time. If markets are efficient, what explains all the trading? Rather than assume rational expectations and a homogenous investor class, we assume four investor classes that diverge in their perception of value (i.e. in their expectation of future returns) and thus trade with each other. Using insights from Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), we develop a theoretical framework for how a speculative bubble might materialize within a modern capitalist economy with securities markets’ that follow a random walk. Obviously, there is no “bubble” variable. We use Tobin’s Q, the ratio of the price of an asset to its replacement cost, and Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio as proxy variables for bubbles. We find statistically significant, negative relationships between both of these proxy variables and our dependent variable, Ten Year Cumulative Returns, thereby providing evidence against the EMH and suggesting the possibility of speculative bubbles. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

Partindo da Teoria Pós-Keynesiana, o objetivo desta Tese, composta de três Ensaios, é analisar a política fiscal do estado subnacional Rio Grande do Sul de 1995 a 2014 e o desempenho da dívida renegociada com a União. O primeiro Ensaio aborda a política fiscal de administração dos gastos públicos do Estado, identificando se os investimentos públicos foram usados como política anticíclica, de acordo com as contribuições de Keynes (1980) sobre orçamentos segregados em corrente e de capital e de Minsky (1986) sobre o Big Government. Os números analisados mostram que as receitas correntes arrecadadas e as despesas correntes executadas aumentaram respectivamente 3,2% e 4,2% ao ano no período, o que sinaliza para a formação de um desequilíbrio estrutural corrente. A diferença entre as perdas de ICMS das exportações (Lei Kandir) e a compensação do Estado aumentou e a participação do Estado nas receitas da União cresceu em média 0,8% ao ano no período. Neste último caso, ocorreu uma reversão, elevando-se a cota-parte do RS no FPE e diminuindo a cota-parte do IPI exportações. Os dados indicam que a média anual de investimentos públicos oscilou. Eles caíram no início e aumentaram no final dos mandatos de cada um dos governadores do período, o que caracteriza ciclos políticos. Os acréscimos mais significativos de investimentos públicos ocorreram apenas quando o Estado contou com fontes extraordinárias de receitas, como privatizações, aumento de impostos, venda de ações ou operações de crédito. Para comprovar se a política fiscal foi anticíclica, desenvolveu-se o Índice Minskyano de Governo (iMG), que mede a relação entre a variação do déficit e dos investimentos públicos. No período, o iMG aponta que apenas em 2003 e 2008, com as taxas do PIB do RS em desaceleração, e 2005 e 2009, com as taxas do PIB negativas, o Estado executou uma política anticíclica de investimentos públicos. Porém, ela foi tímida, denominada de Small Government. O segundo Ensaio verifica se as propostas de política tributária do Estado de 1995 a 2014 coincidem com as apontadas por Keynes (1964), quais sejam: melhorar a capacidade de gastos do governo; reduzir impostos sobre consumo e investimentos para aumentar a demanda agregada; e elevar os tributos sobre a renda e a herança para diminuir a desigualdade. Pela política tributária realizada no período, percebe-se que apenas a primeira foi confirmada. Não há informações suficientes que comprovem a segunda. E sobre a terceira, houve até um retrocesso, com a diminuição do número de alíquotas do imposto sobre herança. Partindo da hipótese da fragilidade financeira de Minsky (1975, 1986, 1992), o terceiro Ensaio faz uma análise do fluxo de caixa da dívida pública do RS com a União, que foi renegociada em 1998 num cenário de avanço das políticas neoliberais no Brasil. Para isso foi proposto o Índice de fragilidade financeira da dívida pública (IFFDP). Com frequência mensal, o IFFDP aponta que a dívida pública do RS teve uma estrutura Ponzi de novembro de 1998 a fevereiro de 1999 e de abril de 2000 a agosto de 2003, períodos em que o indexador da dívida, o IGP-Di, sofreu fortes elevações, sobretudo pela volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. De março de 1999 a março de 2000 e de setembro de 2003 a maio de 2013, o Índice caracterizou-se como especulativo. Apenas a partir de junho de 2013, o IFFDP passou a ser considerado hedge, ou seja, o fluxo de caixa tem certa margem de segurança. / Based on the Post-Keynesian theory, the aim of this Theses, composed by three Essays, is to analyze the fiscal policy of the subnational state of Rio Grande do Sul from 1995 to 2014 as well as the development of the negotiated debit with the union. The First Essay approaches the fiscal policy of the public expenditure administration of the state, identifying if the public investments were used as anticyclical policies, according to Keynes’ contributions (1980) about budgets segregated into current and capital and according to Minsky’s contributions (1986) about the Big Government. The analyzed numbers show that the collected current revenues and the executed current expenses increase respectively 3,2% and 4,2% a year in the period, which signalizes a current structural unbalance formation. The differences among the losses of ICMS on exportations (Lei Kandir) and the State compensation increased and the State participation in the Union revenues increased on average 0.8% a year in the period. In the latter case, a reversion has occurred, increasing the quota-part of RS at FPE and decreasing the quota-part of exportations IPI. The data indicate that the annual average of public investments has oscillated. They fell at the beginning and increased at the end of each governor’s mandate in the period, which characterizes political cycles. The most significant increases of public investments occurred only when the State counted on extraordinary revenues sources, such as privatizations, taxes increases, stocks selling or credit operations. In order to prove if the fiscal policy was anticyclical, the Government Minskano Index (iMG) was developed, which measures the relation between the deficit variation and the public investments. However, it was timid, denominated Small Government, based on the Minsky’s contributions. The Second Essay verifies if the tax policy propositions of the State from 1998 to 2014 coincide with the ones pointed by Keynes (1964), as follows: to improve the government capacity of expenses; to decrease taxes on consume and investments in order to increase the aggregated demand; and to elevate the tributes over the income and the inheritance in order to decrease the inequality. Through the tax policy realized in the period, it is possible to perceive that only the first one was confirmed. There is no enough information which proves the second one. And about the third one, there was even a retreat, with the decreasing of the number of tax on inheritance aliquots. Assuming the financial instability hypothesis proposed by Minsky (1975, 1986, 1992), the Third Essay examines the cash flow of RS’s public debt with the Union, which was renegotiated in 1998 in an advance scenario of neoliberal policies in Brazil. For this reason, the Financial Fragility of the Public Debt Index (IFFDP) was purposed. With a monthly frequency, the IFIPD points out that the RS’s public debt had a Ponzi structure from November 1998 to February 1999 and from April 2000 to August 2003, periods in which the debt indexer, the IGP-Di, suffered severe elevations, especially by the volatility of the exchange rate. From March 1999 to March 2000 and from September 2003 to May 2013, the index was characterized as speculative. Only since June 2013 the IFFDP has been considered hedge, i.e., the cash flow has certain margin of safety.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PEGORER_Andre_2011.pdf: 1145704 bytes, checksum: 884d8c9521fd9f9f5d76049a77bd4651 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-16 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / Given the complexity of financial instruments currently in use, the purpose of this study is to examine, according to the proposed economic theory of Hyman P. Minsky, the factors that led to the recent financial crisis, which began in the mortgage market and expanded throughout the financial system. The residential mortgage market, as well as the financial regulation and supervision frameworks, was examined based on the Financial Fragility Hypothesis and the theory of financial cycles, as proposed by Minsky. The framework that the financial structure created prior to the crisis would not have been possible without the use of credit derivatives. This research finds that the use of credit derivatives were the primary financial instrument that drove the expansion of the credit cycle and produced vast losses during the crisis. This new financial structure, burdened by a complex structured finance, amplified the positive outlook of economic units and that allow very high credit expansion rates for a long period. And its collapse required the ensuing government intervention in the economy. Such intervention, which occurred through fiscal and monetary policies and a direct rescue of failing institutions, was necessary in both preventing the full collapse of the entire financial system and in stabilizing it. This study additionally applies an econometric model of the Minskyan theory to test whether the use of credit derivatives contributed to expanding the fragility of the financial system during its expansion. Finally, the study analyzes the drivers of the strong growth rate of the credit derivatives markets in the context of financial regulation, as such markets are exposed to high risk and therefore have a significant potential to increase financial fragility. / Diante da complexidade dos instrumentos financeiros existentes, este trabalho busca esclarecer, segundo a teoria econômica proposta por Hyman P. Minsky, quais foram os fatores que levaram a crise financeira recente, que teve seu inicio no mercado imobiliário, a se expandir de forma intensa por todo o sistema financeiro internacional. Baseando-se na Hipotese da Fragilidade Financeira e na teoria econômica de ciclos financeiros, propostas por Minsky, foi analisada a estrutura de financiamento imobiliário nos Estados Unidos. As estruturas de regulação e supervisão financeira também foram analisadas aos olhos da teoria Minskyana. Alem disso, foi testada a hipótese de que a estrutura financeira criada neste período não seria possível sem a utilização peculiar dos derivativos de credito. Estes foram identificados como sendo o principal instrumento financeiro tanto no estimulo do ciclo de ascensão do credito quanto no colapso da nova estrutura financeira, que, permeada por produtos estruturados complexos, exacerbou as expectativas positivas dos agentes ao permitir que elevadas taxas de crescimento do credito fossem mantidas por um longo período de tempo. Com o colapso desta estrutura, fez-se necessária a intervenção do governo na economia. As intervenções, que ocorreram através de políticas fiscais, monetárias e de socorro as instituições em estado precário, foram necessárias para evitar o colapso do sistema financeiro e restabelecer a estabilidade do mesmo. Diante destes ocorridos e tento em vista a interação existente entre os diferentes agentes financeiros, foi criado um modelo testável empiricamente para a teoria Minskyana. Este modelo buscou responder se o amplo uso de derivativos de credito foi capaz de aumentar a fragilidade financeira de todo o sistema durante o período de expansão econômica. Por fim, a estrutura regulatória dos derivativos financeiros foi analisada de forma a ilustrar os motivos que levaram ao amplo crescimento do mercado de derivativos de credito, um mercado marcado por elevada exposição a riscos e, portanto, propenso a contribuir com a elevação da fragilidade financeira.

Partindo da Teoria Pós-Keynesiana, o objetivo desta Tese, composta de três Ensaios, é analisar a política fiscal do estado subnacional Rio Grande do Sul de 1995 a 2014 e o desempenho da dívida renegociada com a União. O primeiro Ensaio aborda a política fiscal de administração dos gastos públicos do Estado, identificando se os investimentos públicos foram usados como política anticíclica, de acordo com as contribuições de Keynes (1980) sobre orçamentos segregados em corrente e de capital e de Minsky (1986) sobre o Big Government. Os números analisados mostram que as receitas correntes arrecadadas e as despesas correntes executadas aumentaram respectivamente 3,2% e 4,2% ao ano no período, o que sinaliza para a formação de um desequilíbrio estrutural corrente. A diferença entre as perdas de ICMS das exportações (Lei Kandir) e a compensação do Estado aumentou e a participação do Estado nas receitas da União cresceu em média 0,8% ao ano no período. Neste último caso, ocorreu uma reversão, elevando-se a cota-parte do RS no FPE e diminuindo a cota-parte do IPI exportações. Os dados indicam que a média anual de investimentos públicos oscilou. Eles caíram no início e aumentaram no final dos mandatos de cada um dos governadores do período, o que caracteriza ciclos políticos. Os acréscimos mais significativos de investimentos públicos ocorreram apenas quando o Estado contou com fontes extraordinárias de receitas, como privatizações, aumento de impostos, venda de ações ou operações de crédito. Para comprovar se a política fiscal foi anticíclica, desenvolveu-se o Índice Minskyano de Governo (iMG), que mede a relação entre a variação do déficit e dos investimentos públicos. No período, o iMG aponta que apenas em 2003 e 2008, com as taxas do PIB do RS em desaceleração, e 2005 e 2009, com as taxas do PIB negativas, o Estado executou uma política anticíclica de investimentos públicos. Porém, ela foi tímida, denominada de Small Government. O segundo Ensaio verifica se as propostas de política tributária do Estado de 1995 a 2014 coincidem com as apontadas por Keynes (1964), quais sejam: melhorar a capacidade de gastos do governo; reduzir impostos sobre consumo e investimentos para aumentar a demanda agregada; e elevar os tributos sobre a renda e a herança para diminuir a desigualdade. Pela política tributária realizada no período, percebe-se que apenas a primeira foi confirmada. Não há informações suficientes que comprovem a segunda. E sobre a terceira, houve até um retrocesso, com a diminuição do número de alíquotas do imposto sobre herança. Partindo da hipótese da fragilidade financeira de Minsky (1975, 1986, 1992), o terceiro Ensaio faz uma análise do fluxo de caixa da dívida pública do RS com a União, que foi renegociada em 1998 num cenário de avanço das políticas neoliberais no Brasil. Para isso foi proposto o Índice de fragilidade financeira da dívida pública (IFFDP). Com frequência mensal, o IFFDP aponta que a dívida pública do RS teve uma estrutura Ponzi de novembro de 1998 a fevereiro de 1999 e de abril de 2000 a agosto de 2003, períodos em que o indexador da dívida, o IGP-Di, sofreu fortes elevações, sobretudo pela volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. De março de 1999 a março de 2000 e de setembro de 2003 a maio de 2013, o Índice caracterizou-se como especulativo. Apenas a partir de junho de 2013, o IFFDP passou a ser considerado hedge, ou seja, o fluxo de caixa tem certa margem de segurança. / Based on the Post-Keynesian theory, the aim of this Theses, composed by three Essays, is to analyze the fiscal policy of the subnational state of Rio Grande do Sul from 1995 to 2014 as well as the development of the negotiated debit with the union. The First Essay approaches the fiscal policy of the public expenditure administration of the state, identifying if the public investments were used as anticyclical policies, according to Keynes’ contributions (1980) about budgets segregated into current and capital and according to Minsky’s contributions (1986) about the Big Government. The analyzed numbers show that the collected current revenues and the executed current expenses increase respectively 3,2% and 4,2% a year in the period, which signalizes a current structural unbalance formation. The differences among the losses of ICMS on exportations (Lei Kandir) and the State compensation increased and the State participation in the Union revenues increased on average 0.8% a year in the period. In the latter case, a reversion has occurred, increasing the quota-part of RS at FPE and decreasing the quota-part of exportations IPI. The data indicate that the annual average of public investments has oscillated. They fell at the beginning and increased at the end of each governor’s mandate in the period, which characterizes political cycles. The most significant increases of public investments occurred only when the State counted on extraordinary revenues sources, such as privatizations, taxes increases, stocks selling or credit operations. In order to prove if the fiscal policy was anticyclical, the Government Minskano Index (iMG) was developed, which measures the relation between the deficit variation and the public investments. However, it was timid, denominated Small Government, based on the Minsky’s contributions. The Second Essay verifies if the tax policy propositions of the State from 1998 to 2014 coincide with the ones pointed by Keynes (1964), as follows: to improve the government capacity of expenses; to decrease taxes on consume and investments in order to increase the aggregated demand; and to elevate the tributes over the income and the inheritance in order to decrease the inequality. Through the tax policy realized in the period, it is possible to perceive that only the first one was confirmed. There is no enough information which proves the second one. And about the third one, there was even a retreat, with the decreasing of the number of tax on inheritance aliquots. Assuming the financial instability hypothesis proposed by Minsky (1975, 1986, 1992), the Third Essay examines the cash flow of RS’s public debt with the Union, which was renegotiated in 1998 in an advance scenario of neoliberal policies in Brazil. For this reason, the Financial Fragility of the Public Debt Index (IFFDP) was purposed. With a monthly frequency, the IFIPD points out that the RS’s public debt had a Ponzi structure from November 1998 to February 1999 and from April 2000 to August 2003, periods in which the debt indexer, the IGP-Di, suffered severe elevations, especially by the volatility of the exchange rate. From March 1999 to March 2000 and from September 2003 to May 2013, the index was characterized as speculative. Only since June 2013 the IFFDP has been considered hedge, i.e., the cash flow has certain margin of safety.

Partindo da Teoria Pós-Keynesiana, o objetivo desta Tese, composta de três Ensaios, é analisar a política fiscal do estado subnacional Rio Grande do Sul de 1995 a 2014 e o desempenho da dívida renegociada com a União. O primeiro Ensaio aborda a política fiscal de administração dos gastos públicos do Estado, identificando se os investimentos públicos foram usados como política anticíclica, de acordo com as contribuições de Keynes (1980) sobre orçamentos segregados em corrente e de capital e de Minsky (1986) sobre o Big Government. Os números analisados mostram que as receitas correntes arrecadadas e as despesas correntes executadas aumentaram respectivamente 3,2% e 4,2% ao ano no período, o que sinaliza para a formação de um desequilíbrio estrutural corrente. A diferença entre as perdas de ICMS das exportações (Lei Kandir) e a compensação do Estado aumentou e a participação do Estado nas receitas da União cresceu em média 0,8% ao ano no período. Neste último caso, ocorreu uma reversão, elevando-se a cota-parte do RS no FPE e diminuindo a cota-parte do IPI exportações. Os dados indicam que a média anual de investimentos públicos oscilou. Eles caíram no início e aumentaram no final dos mandatos de cada um dos governadores do período, o que caracteriza ciclos políticos. Os acréscimos mais significativos de investimentos públicos ocorreram apenas quando o Estado contou com fontes extraordinárias de receitas, como privatizações, aumento de impostos, venda de ações ou operações de crédito. Para comprovar se a política fiscal foi anticíclica, desenvolveu-se o Índice Minskyano de Governo (iMG), que mede a relação entre a variação do déficit e dos investimentos públicos. No período, o iMG aponta que apenas em 2003 e 2008, com as taxas do PIB do RS em desaceleração, e 2005 e 2009, com as taxas do PIB negativas, o Estado executou uma política anticíclica de investimentos públicos. Porém, ela foi tímida, denominada de Small Government. O segundo Ensaio verifica se as propostas de política tributária do Estado de 1995 a 2014 coincidem com as apontadas por Keynes (1964), quais sejam: melhorar a capacidade de gastos do governo; reduzir impostos sobre consumo e investimentos para aumentar a demanda agregada; e elevar os tributos sobre a renda e a herança para diminuir a desigualdade. Pela política tributária realizada no período, percebe-se que apenas a primeira foi confirmada. Não há informações suficientes que comprovem a segunda. E sobre a terceira, houve até um retrocesso, com a diminuição do número de alíquotas do imposto sobre herança. Partindo da hipótese da fragilidade financeira de Minsky (1975, 1986, 1992), o terceiro Ensaio faz uma análise do fluxo de caixa da dívida pública do RS com a União, que foi renegociada em 1998 num cenário de avanço das políticas neoliberais no Brasil. Para isso foi proposto o Índice de fragilidade financeira da dívida pública (IFFDP). Com frequência mensal, o IFFDP aponta que a dívida pública do RS teve uma estrutura Ponzi de novembro de 1998 a fevereiro de 1999 e de abril de 2000 a agosto de 2003, períodos em que o indexador da dívida, o IGP-Di, sofreu fortes elevações, sobretudo pela volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. De março de 1999 a março de 2000 e de setembro de 2003 a maio de 2013, o Índice caracterizou-se como especulativo. Apenas a partir de junho de 2013, o IFFDP passou a ser considerado hedge, ou seja, o fluxo de caixa tem certa margem de segurança. / Based on the Post-Keynesian theory, the aim of this Theses, composed by three Essays, is to analyze the fiscal policy of the subnational state of Rio Grande do Sul from 1995 to 2014 as well as the development of the negotiated debit with the union. The First Essay approaches the fiscal policy of the public expenditure administration of the state, identifying if the public investments were used as anticyclical policies, according to Keynes’ contributions (1980) about budgets segregated into current and capital and according to Minsky’s contributions (1986) about the Big Government. The analyzed numbers show that the collected current revenues and the executed current expenses increase respectively 3,2% and 4,2% a year in the period, which signalizes a current structural unbalance formation. The differences among the losses of ICMS on exportations (Lei Kandir) and the State compensation increased and the State participation in the Union revenues increased on average 0.8% a year in the period. In the latter case, a reversion has occurred, increasing the quota-part of RS at FPE and decreasing the quota-part of exportations IPI. The data indicate that the annual average of public investments has oscillated. They fell at the beginning and increased at the end of each governor’s mandate in the period, which characterizes political cycles. The most significant increases of public investments occurred only when the State counted on extraordinary revenues sources, such as privatizations, taxes increases, stocks selling or credit operations. In order to prove if the fiscal policy was anticyclical, the Government Minskano Index (iMG) was developed, which measures the relation between the deficit variation and the public investments. However, it was timid, denominated Small Government, based on the Minsky’s contributions. The Second Essay verifies if the tax policy propositions of the State from 1998 to 2014 coincide with the ones pointed by Keynes (1964), as follows: to improve the government capacity of expenses; to decrease taxes on consume and investments in order to increase the aggregated demand; and to elevate the tributes over the income and the inheritance in order to decrease the inequality. Through the tax policy realized in the period, it is possible to perceive that only the first one was confirmed. There is no enough information which proves the second one. And about the third one, there was even a retreat, with the decreasing of the number of tax on inheritance aliquots. Assuming the financial instability hypothesis proposed by Minsky (1975, 1986, 1992), the Third Essay examines the cash flow of RS’s public debt with the Union, which was renegotiated in 1998 in an advance scenario of neoliberal policies in Brazil. For this reason, the Financial Fragility of the Public Debt Index (IFFDP) was purposed. With a monthly frequency, the IFIPD points out that the RS’s public debt had a Ponzi structure from November 1998 to February 1999 and from April 2000 to August 2003, periods in which the debt indexer, the IGP-Di, suffered severe elevations, especially by the volatility of the exchange rate. From March 1999 to March 2000 and from September 2003 to May 2013, the index was characterized as speculative. Only since June 2013 the IFFDP has been considered hedge, i.e., the cash flow has certain margin of safety.

This paper examines current and suggested iterations of the climate finance architecture and potential risks in capital generation and delivery. Which is achieved via the construction of a literature review which aims to capture the main actors involved in the climate finance architecture. This is then contrasted to a post-keynesian and development economics synthesized framework focusing on liquidity preference, asymmetrical relationships and Minskyan financial instability. Utilizing data on current accounts, private capital flow instability and reserve asset accumulation we are able to show the explanatory power of our synthesized framework in explaining global capital imbalances and its impact on global financial flows and the impact on middle and low income countries. Using the insights gathered from our synthesized framework we then contrast it to the literature review, examining it for observable limitations in capital generation and delivery. In doing so a couple of things are noted, there are significant points of contention relating to capital generation and delivery in the climate finance architecture, potentially resulting in volatile asset prices and a negative impact on effective climate finance. Simultaneously it’s observed that climate finance is not catalytical for financial instability but a growing dependency and intertwining with conventional private financial flows may result in bouts of greater financial instability of climate finance assets. Lastly the paper affirms that there is a need to further examine the role and function of blended finance mechanisms.

La thèse présente une analyse comparative de l’œuvre du poète, philosophe, journaliste et dramaturge Nicolas Maksimovitch Minsky, l’un des fondateurs du symbolisme en Russie. L’œuvre de Minsky est considérée dans le contexte du symbolisme français. Le présent travail étudie la genèse du symbolisme russe qui s’est partiellement inspiré des notions et de l’esthétique du symbolisme français. Il contient un large corpus des traductions inédites des textes russes jamais étudiés dans le cadre des analyses littéraires. Ces textes apportent des éléments précieux permettant de mieux comprendre la situation socioculturelle et les particularités de la conscience « transitoire » de la fin du XIXème siècle. L’œuvre de Minsky est née sous l’influence de deux littératures, française et russe. L’approche comparative permet donc de définir sa place dans l’évolution de la culture mondiale et de réaffirmer l’importance des liens culturels entre la France et la Russie. / The dissertation is devoted to a complex comparative research of works of the poet, philosopher, publicist, playwright and one of founders of symbolism in Russia, Nikolay Maksimovich Minsky, in the context of the French symbolism. The dissertation examines the genesis of early Russian symbolism, which was partially shaped by the concepts and categories of French symbolism. The work presents a large body of texts in Russian, translated into French for the first time and previously not subject to literary analysis; these texts reveal the picture of the socio-cultural situation and the main features of the turn-of-the-century consciousness of the late XIX century. Minsky's work was formed at the junction of influence of French and Russian literature, so the comparative approach to the analysis of the poet's work allows us to determine its place in the development of world culture, as well as to emphasize once again the importance of the cultural ties between Russia and France. / Диссертация посвящена компаративистскому исследованию творчества поэта, философа, публициста, драматурга, одного из родоначальников символизма в России, Николая Максимовича Минского, в контексте французского символизма. В диссертации рассматривается генезис раннего русского символизма, сформировавшегося частично благодаря понятиям и категориям французского символизма. В работе представлен большой корпус русских текстов, впервые переведенных на французский язык и ранее не оказывавшихся предметом литературоведческого анализа, которые раскрывают картину социокультурной ситуации и основные особенности рубежного сознания конца XIX столетия. Творчество Минского формировалось на стыке влияния французской и русской литератур, поэтому компаративистский подход к анализу творчества поэта позволяет определить его место в процессе развития мировой культуры, а также в очередной раз подчеркнуть важность культурных связей между Россией и Францией.

In the last three decades of the twentieth century and the first of the internal forces of the capitalist system have changed in such a way, that show has achieved a new kind of capitalism that currently in force. It is a type of financial capitalism - with the globalization of high finance as its ultimate expression. This new corporate arrangement is characterized by chronic instability that leads to many problems on a global scale. From which highlights the supremacy of the financial sphere on the production. This supremacy is a destabilizing component of investment, the financing of productive activities, employment and income. Moreover, dismantled the National States and its ability to intervene in order to bring discipline and order to the system. National states were also affected in their capacity to create and effectively implement policies aiming at full employment and better generation and distribution of income and wealth. From the middle of last century, historical and structural forces emerged and were expanded in contemporary capitalism. This junction with the structural history has made possible the dominance of finance mainly through their higher aspect: the financial globalization (Chapter I). The effort of this dissertation focuses on the argument that the supremacy of finance is a characteristic inherent in the modus operandi of capitalism and that if the system does not suffer the imposition of rules and discipline, crises and instability are increasing, and entail more harm to society as a whole. To consolidate this argument, the study draws on the analysis of three thinkers who, in their conceptions and theoretical formulations, pointed to a clear and endogenous tendency in capitalism for the supremacy of finance. Marx's analysis of the actual movements of capital and its developments culminating in the absolute form of wealth expressed by the fictitious capital (Chapter II); Keynes with his revolutionary interpretation of an economy that is essentially monetary and in which the agents, faced with the expectations arising from an uncertain future, opt for more liquid assets, thus depressing the investment and productive activity (Chapter III), and Minsky with his hypothesis of financial fragility, which is a result of a complex economy that needs funding for the growth in a world characterized by unpredictability of economic activity over time (Chapter IV). Are the theoretical and analytical here used to undergird and support the argument that the supremacy of finance is an inherent feature of the development of the capitalist system of production. / Nas últimas três décadas do século XX e na primeira deste, as forças internas do sistema capitalista se alteraram de um tal modo, que denotam ter surgido um novo tipo de capitalismo que atualmente vigora. É um capitalismo de tipo financeiro tendo a globalização das altas finanças como sua expressão máxima. Este novo arranjo societário é caracterizado por uma instabilidade crônica que acarreta inúmeros problemas em escala global. Dentre os quais, destaca-se a supremacia da esfera financeira sobre a produtiva. Tal supremacia é uma componente desestabilizadora do investimento, do financiamento das atividades produtivas, do emprego e da renda. Além do mais, desarticulou os Estados Nacionais e sua capacidade de intervenção visando dar disciplina e ordem ao sistema. Os Estados Nacionais também foram afetados na sua condição de criarem e efetivamente implementarem políticas objetivando o pleno emprego e a melhor geração e distribuição da renda e da riqueza. A partir de meados do século passado, forças histórico-estruturais surgiram e se ampliaram no capitalismo contemporâneo. Uma tal junção do estrutural com o histórico tornou possível à supremacia das finanças, principalmente por intermédio de sua vertente maior: a globalização financeira (Capítulo I). O esforço desta Dissertação está centrado no argumento de que a supremacia das finanças é uma característica inerente ao próprio modo de funcionamento do capitalismo e que, se o sistema não sofrer a imposição de regras e disciplina, as crises e a instabilidade serão cada vez mais intensas e acarretarão mais males para o conjunto da sociedade. Para embasar este argumento, o estudo se vale das análises de três pensadores que, nas suas concepções e formulações teóricas, apontaram para uma nítida e endógena tendência no capitalismo para a supremacia das finanças. Marx com a análise dos movimentos reais do capital e seus desdobramentos que culminam na forma absoluta da riqueza expressa pelo capital fictício (Capítulo II); Keynes com a sua revolucionária interpretação de uma economia que é essencialmente monetária e na qual os agentes, ao se depararem com as expectativas advindas de um futuro incerto, optam por ativos mais líquidos, deprimindo assim, o investimento e a atividade produtiva (Capítulo III); e Minsky com sua hipótese da fragilidade financeira, que é conseqüência de uma economia complexa que necessita de financiamento para o seu crescimento em um mundo caracterizado pela imprevisibilidade da atividade econômica ao longo do tempo (Capítulo IV). São os referenciais teórico-analíticos aqui utilizados para embasar e sustentar o argumento de que a supremacia das finanças é uma característica imanente do desenvolvimento do sistema capitalista de produção. / Mestre em Economia

Cette thèse présente un modèle résilient pour piloter un avion basé sur une logique non monotone. Ce modèle est capable de gérer des solutions à partir d’informations incomplètes, contradictoires et des exceptions. C’est un problème très connu en Intelligence Artificial, qui est étudié depuis plus de 40 ans. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons la logique des défauts pour formaliser la situation et trouver des conclusions possibles. Grâce à cette logique, nous pouvons transformer les règles de pilotage en défauts. Ensuite, lorsque nous calculons les solutions, plusieurs options peuvent en résulter. À ce stade, il existe un critère de décision opportuniste pour choisir la meilleure solution. Le contrôle du système se fait via la propriété de résilience. Nous redéfinissons cette propriété comme l’intégration de la logique non monotone dans le modèle de Minsky. En conséquence, il est démontré que le modèle de résilience proposé pourrait être généralisé aux systèmes intégrant une connaissance du monde contenant des situations, des objectifs et des actions. Enfin, nous présentons les résultats expérimentaux et la conclusion de la thèse en discutant des perspectives et des défis pour les orientations futures. Différentes applications dans d’autres domaines sont prises en compte pour l’intérêt du comportement du modèle. / This thesis presents a resilient model to pilot an aircraft based on a non-monotonic logic. This model is capable of handling solutions from incomplete, contradictory information and exceptions. This is a very well known problem in Artificial Intelligence, which has been studied for more than 40 years. To do this, we use default logic to formalise the situation and find possible conclusions. Thanks to this logic we can transform the piloting rules to defaults. Then, when we calculate the solutions, several options could result. At this point an opportunistic decision criteria takes place to choose the better solution. The control of the system is done via the property of resilence, we redefine this property as the integration of the non-monotonic logic in the Minsky’s model. As a result, it is shown that the proposed resilient model could be generalised to systems that incorporate a knowledge of the world that contains situations, objectives and actions. Finally, we present the experimental results and conclusion of the thesis discussing the prospects and challenges that exist for future directions. Different applications in other fields are taken into account for the interest of the model’s behavior.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de présenter la Banque islamique comme réponse à l’instabilité de l’économie de crédit. La lecture de la crise des subprimes au prisme du modèle post- keynésien de Minsky-Kindleberger permet d’affirmer que l’Hypothèse d’Instabilité Financière (HIF) débouche sur des propositions de gestion des crises financières. Car, si les crises sont inhérentes au capitalisme, il devient nécessaire et urgent de mettre en place des institutions à même de gérer les perturbations financières. Les réformes monétaires proposées au fil du temps par des éco- nomistes et le comité Bâle III posent le problème du développement bancaire. Dans le cas où la monnaie est séparée du crédit financier, soit le cas des reformes monétaires proposées par Fisher (1935) et ses disciples, nous rencontrons le problème du multiplicateur de crédit alors que le risque systémique est faible et il y a remise en cause de la nécessité du prêteur en dernier ressort dans ce système. Tandis que si la monnaie n’est pas séparée du crédit financier, cas des réformes monétaire proposées par des instruments de gestion tels que ceux proposées par Minsky (1982) ; Kindleberger (1989) ; Aglietta et Moutot (1993) ; Aglietta (2011) et le comité Bâle III, le risque systémique per- siste toujours. Dans ce dernier cas, c’est le prêteur en dernier ressort qui est le plus susceptible d’assumer l’objectif de la stabilité du système financier dans son ensemble en émettant de la liquidi- té ultime. L’étude comparative de deux cas de développement de banques islamiques, celui de l’Arabie Saoudite et celui du Pakistan, a montré que ces deux systèmes bancaires ont été confrontés au même problème que celui de la finance occidentale : le développement bancaire. Du fait que, si la monnaie est séparée du crédit financier – cas du Pakistan – les Banques islamiques sont à la fois moins vulnérables au risque systémique mais sont moins performantes. Alors que si la monnaie n’est pas séparée du crédit financier – cas de l’Arabie Saoudite – les banques islamiques sont plus vulnérables aux risques systémiques mais sont plus performantes. A contrario, même si la Banque islamique ne répond pas au risque systémique de l’Hypothèse de l’Instabilité de l’Économie de Crédit, elle résiste tout de même à la crise systémique de cette hypothèse du fait qu’elle ne peut en aucun cas conduire à une crise systémique comme celle des subprimes. Car, en contraste avec l’instrument du système financier conventionnel, les spécificités de l’instrument du système finan- cier islamique l’amènent à être moins vulnérable à la crise systémique. / The goal of this PhD is to analyze the Islamic bank model as a possible solution to the credit economy instability. Reading the subprime crisis through the post Keynesian model of Minsky-Kindleberger lenses allows us to assert that the Financial Instability Hypothesis (HIF) leads to proposals for financial crises management. If crises are inherent in capitalism, it becomes necessary and urgent to set up institutions able of managing financial perturbations. The monetary reforms suggested over time by economists and the Bale III committee too raises the problem of banking development. If money is separated from the financial credit, as in the example of Fisher (1935) and his followers monetary reforms shows, we run into the problem of the credit multiplier while the systemic risk is weak and the necessity of the lender of last resort in this system is questioned. Whereas, if money is not separated from the financial credit, as in the case of monetary reforms proposed by instruments of management such as those suggested by Minsky (1982), Kindleberger, Aglietta and Moutot (1993), Aglietta (2011) and Bale III, the systemic risk persists and this is, after all, the lender in the last resort who may assume the objective of the financial system’s stability in general by uttering of the ultimate liquidity. The development study of the two cases of Islamic banks, those in Saudi Arabia and those in Pakistan, showed the confrontation of these banks of the same problems noticed in the western finance. In fact, if money is separated from the financial credit, which is the case in Pakistan, Islamic banks are less vulnerable to systemic risk and are less efficient. While if money is not separated from the financial credit, as in Saudi Arabia, Islamic banks are more vulnerable to systemic risk and more efficient. However, even if the Islamic bank does not respond to the systemic risk of the Hypothesis of the Credit Economy’s instability, it answers as even to the systemic crises of this hypothesis. Hence, in all cases, it cannot lead to a systemic crisis similar to the subprime one. This is due to the fact that specification of the Islamic financial system instrument, in contrast to the instrument of the conventional financial system, is less vulnerable to the systemic crisis.