There are always differences between conceptual design estimates and the performance of a final product. These differences may result in constraint violations, which can have severe financial impacts. Such violations may necessitate downstream changes to recover aircraft performance. The ability to estimate the likelihood and impact of late-stage changes is key to mitigating the overall risk of a design. Reliability methods can treat design uncertainty; however, existing methods do not account for aspects of aircraft design such as sizing processes, the design freeze after conceptual design, and late-stage ``mitigation actions'' taken when a performance constraint is violated. By accounting for these elements, new reliability metrics can be developed. In addition to the probability of compliance, the designer can determine the probability of recovery through mitigation actions, which helps determine the true likelihood that a design can meet the requirements. Hypotheses are developed to fill the identified gaps, resulting in Aircraft Recovery through Mitigation & Optimization under Uncertainty for Reliability. ARMOUR augments reliability methods by integrating aircraft sizing, uncertainty margins, and mitigation actions. ARMOUR is demonstrated on the conceptual design of a large civil transport and is exercised to explore previously obscured relationships. The field of probabilistic aircraft design is enhanced by the concurrent quantification of three elements in one design environment: probability of compliance, probability of recovery after failure, and traditional design criteria. ARMOUR enables the identification of designs which both meets reliability goals and optimizes a traditional performance metric, selecting a design that efficiently meets reliability requirements.

Neste trabalho é apresentado o resultado de estudo sobre a acidentalidade no transporte coletivo da cidade de São Carlos - Brasil, utilizando como fontes de informações os registros contidos em boletins de ocorrência de acidentes da polícia militar e em relatórios de ocorrências, elaborados pela empresa operadora do transporte coletivo, ambos relativos aos anos de 2005 e 2006. O método utilizado compreende as seguintes etapas: i) Coleta dos dados; ii) Processamento e sistematização dos dados; iii) Caracterização dos acidentes; iv) Análise das informações e preparação de diagnóstico; e, v) Elaboração de ações mitigadoras. O processamento e a sistematização dos dados foram realizados utilizando o Banco de Dados de Acidentes de Trânsito (BDAT) da cidade de São Carlos, ao passo que a caracterização foi realizada com foco na gravidade, tipologia, distribuição temporal e espacial dos acidentes. De forma a identificar os pontos, interseções, trechos e regiões críticas de ocorrência de acidentes de trânsito, utilizou-se um sistema de informação geográfica - SIG, aplicado à área de transportes. Como principais resultados obtiveram-se: i) maior ocorrência de acidentes que resultaram em danos materiais e de acidente do tipo colisão transversal; ii) acidentes que resultaram em vítimas não fatais ocorreram em maior número às sextas-feiras e os que resultaram em vítimas fatais aos finais de semana; iii) os acidentes encontraram-se espalhados por toda a cidade, com maior concentração no eixo norte-sul e próximo a pólos de serviços de saúde, dentre outros. As ações mitigadoras propostas foram de caráter geral, como por exemplo, melhoria da sinalização, realização de campanhas educativas, dentre outros; e de caráter específico, direcionada para o cruzamento que apresentou o maior número de acidente no período em estudo. / This work presents the results of a study on accident occurrence in public transportation (buses) in the city of São Carlos - Brazil, using as information sources the records from police accident reports from the local police and accident reports performed by the company responsible for the public transportation (buses), both for calendar years 2005 and 2006. The method applied comprises the following steps: i) Data collection; ii) Processing and data systematization; iii) Accident characterization; iv) Information analysis and diagnosis preparation; and v) Development of mitigation actions. Processing and data systematization were carried out using Traffic Accident Database (BDAT) from the city of São Carlos, whereas characterization was done focusing on severity, typology, temporal and spatial distribution of accidents. Geographic information system (GIS) applied to transportation field was used to identify intersections, road stretches and critical areas of traffic accident occurrence. The main results obtained were: i) most accidents resulted in property damage and side impacts ii) most nonfatal accidents occurred in greater number on fridays and fatal ones on weekends ii) accidents took place throughout the city, with greater concentration on north-south routes and around heath care centers, among others. Proposed mitigation actions were of general nature, such as improvements to signals, educational campaigns, among others; and specific ones towards the intersection that presented the highest number of accidents during this study.

Neste trabalho é apresentado o resultado de estudo sobre a acidentalidade no transporte coletivo da cidade de São Carlos - Brasil, utilizando como fontes de informações os registros contidos em boletins de ocorrência de acidentes da polícia militar e em relatórios de ocorrências, elaborados pela empresa operadora do transporte coletivo, ambos relativos aos anos de 2005 e 2006. O método utilizado compreende as seguintes etapas: i) Coleta dos dados; ii) Processamento e sistematização dos dados; iii) Caracterização dos acidentes; iv) Análise das informações e preparação de diagnóstico; e, v) Elaboração de ações mitigadoras. O processamento e a sistematização dos dados foram realizados utilizando o Banco de Dados de Acidentes de Trânsito (BDAT) da cidade de São Carlos, ao passo que a caracterização foi realizada com foco na gravidade, tipologia, distribuição temporal e espacial dos acidentes. De forma a identificar os pontos, interseções, trechos e regiões críticas de ocorrência de acidentes de trânsito, utilizou-se um sistema de informação geográfica - SIG, aplicado à área de transportes. Como principais resultados obtiveram-se: i) maior ocorrência de acidentes que resultaram em danos materiais e de acidente do tipo colisão transversal; ii) acidentes que resultaram em vítimas não fatais ocorreram em maior número às sextas-feiras e os que resultaram em vítimas fatais aos finais de semana; iii) os acidentes encontraram-se espalhados por toda a cidade, com maior concentração no eixo norte-sul e próximo a pólos de serviços de saúde, dentre outros. As ações mitigadoras propostas foram de caráter geral, como por exemplo, melhoria da sinalização, realização de campanhas educativas, dentre outros; e de caráter específico, direcionada para o cruzamento que apresentou o maior número de acidente no período em estudo. / This work presents the results of a study on accident occurrence in public transportation (buses) in the city of São Carlos - Brazil, using as information sources the records from police accident reports from the local police and accident reports performed by the company responsible for the public transportation (buses), both for calendar years 2005 and 2006. The method applied comprises the following steps: i) Data collection; ii) Processing and data systematization; iii) Accident characterization; iv) Information analysis and diagnosis preparation; and v) Development of mitigation actions. Processing and data systematization were carried out using Traffic Accident Database (BDAT) from the city of São Carlos, whereas characterization was done focusing on severity, typology, temporal and spatial distribution of accidents. Geographic information system (GIS) applied to transportation field was used to identify intersections, road stretches and critical areas of traffic accident occurrence. The main results obtained were: i) most accidents resulted in property damage and side impacts ii) most nonfatal accidents occurred in greater number on fridays and fatal ones on weekends ii) accidents took place throughout the city, with greater concentration on north-south routes and around heath care centers, among others. Proposed mitigation actions were of general nature, such as improvements to signals, educational campaigns, among others; and specific ones towards the intersection that presented the highest number of accidents during this study.

How does the international climate policy frameworks influence the domestic institutional responses to climate mitigation in emerging economies? And how, in turn, do domestic institutions and politics in emerging economies influence the fate of international climate policy frameworks? The thesis provides answers to these questions by studying domestic engagements with Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions in three emerging economies – India, Brazil, and South Africa. The thesis specifically studies how these engagements were influenced by the domestic institutional context provided by national climate policy, norms, and institutional capacity in the three countries. Drawing upon the variations in the engagements with nationally appropriate mitigation actions, made visible by use of the policy cycle as a heuristic device, the thesis informs the implementation of another nascent, yet prevalent, international climate policy framework – Nationally Determined Contributions. The thesis identifies how engagements with nationally appropriate mitigation actions varied in India, Brazil, and South Africa in agenda-setting, policy formulation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. In cases where international support is considered crucial for taking mitigation actions, external factors such as lack of clarity on definitional aspects and availability of international support can hamper the prospects of such frameworks at the agenda-setting and policy formulation stages. Efforts to engage with these frameworks under this uncertainty are held back by non-decisions, overriding national climate policy, as well as by uneven inter-ministerial coordination. The thesis argues that successful implementation of upcoming Nationally Determined  Contributions will be influenced by a country’s ability to align them with its national climate policy, localization of the transnational norms, and the extent to which efforts to enhance institutional capacity for  coordinating the implementation of national climate policy are made. In sum, the effective implementation of International Climate Policy Frameworks will be dependent on the willingness of the state to  provide oversight and coordination, and clarity on the availability of international support. / Hur influerar ramverken för internationell klimatpolicy nationella institutionella åtgärder för att begränsa utsläpp av växthusgaser i framväxande ekonomier? Och hur påverkar, i sin tur, dessa länders nationella institutioner och politik dessa ramverk för internationell klimatpolicy? Denna avhandling studerar nationella engagemang i Nationellt lämpliga utsläppsminskande åtgärder (s.k. NAMAs) i tre framväxande ekonomier – Indien, Brasilien, och Sydafrika. Avhandlingen studerar i synnerhet hur dessa engagemang har påverkats av de tre ländernas nationella klimatpolicy, normer, och institutionella kapacitet. Genom att använda policycykeln som heuristiskt analysverktyg identifierar avhandlingen variationer i hur länderna utvecklat sitt engagemang i NAMAs. Avhandlingen visar att och hur engagemang med nationellt lämpliga utsläppsminskande åtgärder varierar mellan Indien, Brasilien, och Sydafrika vad det gäller fastställande av dagordning, policyformulering, beslutsfattande, implementering, och policyutvärdering. I de fall internationellt stöd anses vara avgörande för att vidta utsläppsminskande åtgärder kan externa faktorer såsom bristande definition av de internationella policyramverken för åtgärder samt tillgänglighet på internationellt stöd försvåra utsikterna för att internationella ramverk tas upp i de nationella dagordnings- och policyformuleringsstadierna. Arbetet med dessa ramverk försvåras även av icke-beslut och ojämn interministeriell koordinering samt om tvingande nationell klimatpolicy inte ligger i linje med de internationella besluten. Avhandlingens slutsatser har betydelse för implementeringen av ett annat framväxande ramverk för internationell klimatpolicy: Nationellt fastställda bidrag (s.k. NDC:er). En framgångsrik implementering av   NDC:er kommer att influeras av en stats förmåga att anpassa dem till nationell klimatpolicy samt transnationella normer, så att dessa överensstämmer eller jämkas med nationella normer, samt den institutionella kapaciteten för att koordinera implementering av nationell klimatpolicy. En effektiv implementering av ramverk för internationell klimatpolicy kommer, sammanfattningsvis, att vara beroende av staters villighet att tillhandahålla tillsyn och koordinering, samt tydlighet vad gäller tillgänglighet till internationellt stöd.