Submitted by Leonardo Cavalcante (leo.ocavalcante@gmail.com) on 2018-06-11T12:09:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Arquivototal.pdf: 2567552 bytes, checksum: 182afc3da72869ecb3238abe716467fe (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-11T12:09:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Arquivototal.pdf: 2567552 bytes, checksum: 182afc3da72869ecb3238abe716467fe (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-14 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Lean Production (LP) could be defined as an integrated sociotechnical system with a multidimensional approach that includes management principles and practices, whose main objective is to reduce costs by eliminating waste. The success of LP in Japan and Western has led many organizations to try to implement it. However, some factors led to the failure of its implementation in many companies. When analyzing these factors, it was verified that these companies disregarded two facts: the existence of guiding principles for execution of lean practices and the continuous and synergistic interaction among such practices. Given this context, it was necessary to propose a model that would evaluate, in an integrated way, the level of LP implementation in companies. Thereunto, it was carried out a review about the articles concern LP assessment considering lean practices, in order to understand how evaluations were done, and which quantitative tools were used and, based on this perception, list the needed requirements to develop the model. Thereafter, this study proposed a fuzzy-GTA-DEMATEL reference model for LP assessment. It was composed of 4 factors and 20 sub-factors used in literature. In order to test its applicability, a case study was carried out at an organisation from automotive sector to evaluate the productive process, as well as applying Delphi with 7 LP specialists to evaluate the interactions between the elements. The model showed that studied company presented a high level of LP implementation. Nevertheless, it also pointed out that the company could make improvements in Process management (PM) factor to leverage the LP in its process, specifically in the sub-factors Standardized operations (S21) and Multifunctional workers (S22). Therefore, it was concluded that referential model is relevant and appropriate to assess the level of LP implementation in addition to identifying priorities for improvement. The model also contributed to diagnosis of the current LM stage in a company, in addition to identifying improvement priorities. Finally, the structure of model is considered a contribution, since the adopting company can use its own factors and sub-factors with same effectiveness. / A Produção Enxuta (PE) pode ser definida como um sistema sociotécnico integrado de abordagem multidimensional que compreende princípios e práticas, cujo principal objetivo é a redução de custos por meio da eliminação de desperdícios. O sucesso da PE no Japão e no Ocidente levou muitas organizações a tentar implantá-la. Porém, alguns fatores levaram ao fracasso de sua implantação em muitas empresas. Ao analisar estes fatores, constatou-se que essas empresas desconsideraram dois fatos: a presença de princípios norteadores para a execução das práticas enxutas e a interação contínua e sinérgica entre tais práticas. Diante desse contexto surgiu a necessidade de propor um modelo que avaliasse, de modo integrado, o nível de implementação da PE nas empresas. Para isso, primeiramente realizou-se um levantamento sobre os artigos que avaliaram a PE considerando as práticas enxutas, de modo a entender como foram feitas as avaliações e quais ferramentas quantitativas foram utilizadas e, com base nesta percepção, elencar os requisitos necessários para desenvolver o modelo. Após tal verificação, esta pesquisa propôs um modelo referencial fuzzy-GTA-DEMATEL para avaliação da PE, composto por 4 fatores e 20 subfatores utilizados na literatura. Para testar sua aplicabilidade, realizou-se um estudo de caso em uma montadora do setor automotivo para avaliar o sistema produtivo, além de utilização do Delphi com 7 especialistas em PE para avaliar as interações entre os elementos. A aplicação do modelo mostrou que a empresa estudada apresentou um forte nível de implementação da PE. Porém, ele também apontou que, a empresa poderia realizar melhorias no fator Gestão de Processos (GP) para alavancar a PE no seu processo produtivo, especificamente nos subfatores Padronização das operações (S21) e Trabalhadores multifuncionais (S22). Desse modo, o modelo referencial é pertinente e adequado para avaliar o nível de implementação da PE de maneira integrada. O modelo também contribuiu para o diagnóstico do estágio atual da PE em uma empresa, além de identificar as prioridades de melhoria. Por fim, a estrutura do modelo configura-se como contribuição, visto que a empresa adotante pode utilizar seus próprios fatores e subfatores com a mesma eficácia.

Safety risk assessment forms an integral part of the design and development of Safety Critical Systems. Conventionally in these systems, standards and policies have been developed to prescribe processes for safety risk assessment. These standards provide guidelines, references and structure to personnel involved in the risk assessment process. However, in some of these standards, the prescribed methods for safety decision making were found to be deficient in some respects. Two such deficiencies have been addressed in this thesis. First, when different safety metrics are required to be combined for a safety related decision, the current practices of using safety risk matrices were found to be inconsistent with the axioms of decision theory. Second, in the safety risk assessment process, when multiple experts are consulted to provide their judgment on the severity and/or likelihood of hazards, the standards were lacking detailed guidelines for aggregating experts' judgements. Such deficiencies could lead to misconceptions pertaining to the safety risk level of critical hazards. These misconceptions potentially give rise to inconsistent safety decisions that might ultimately result in catastrophic outcomes. This thesis addresses both these concerns present in SRM processes. For the problem of combining safety metrics, three potential approaches have been proposed. Normative Decision Analysis tools such as Utility Theory and Multi-attribute Utility Theory were proposed in the first and second approaches. The third approach proposes the use of a Multi-Objective Optimization technique - Pareto Analysis. For problems in Expert Aggregation, behavioral and mathematical solutions have been explored and the implications of using these methods for Safety Risk Assessment have been discussed. Two standard documents that contain the Safety Risk Management Processes of the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) and the U.S. Navy were used to structure the case studies. This thesis has two main contributions. First, it evaluates the use of decision analysis in safety decision process of Safety Critical Systems. It provides guidelines to decision makers on how to meaningfully use and/or combine different safety metrics in the decision process. Second, it identifies the best practices and methods of aggregating expert assessments pertaining to safety decision making. / Master of Science / Safety risk assessment forms an important part of the design and development of Safety Critical Systems. Safety Critical Systems are those systems whose failure could potentially result in the loss of human life. Commonly in these systems, standards and policies have been developed to prescribe processes for safety risk assessment. These standards provide guidelines, references and structure to personnel involved in the risk assessment process. However, in some of these standards, the prescribed methods for safety decision making were found to be deficient in some respects. Two such deficiencies have been addressed in this thesis. First, when different safety metrics are required to be combined to provide information for a safety related decision, the current practices of the safety risk assessment do not yield consistent recommendations. Second, in the safety risk assessment process, often multiple experts are consulted to provide their judgment on the criticality of a potential safety risk of the system. The standards and policies that are currently being used, do not provide clear instructions on how to synthesize the judgements of multiple experts. This lack of clear guidelines could potentially lead to an incorrect final judgement on the criticality of the risk and ultimately result in choosing an improper method to reduce the safety risk. This thesis addresses both these concerns present in safety risk assessment process of Safety Critical Systems. For the problem of combining safety metrics, three approaches have been proposed. Two of the proposed approaches make use of normative decision analysis practices and therefore the recommendations reached using these methods will be consistent with the safety objective of the decision maker. The third approach makes use of a traditional concept called -Pareto Analysis which provides a visual method to analyze the advantages and drawbacks of a given safety concern for a system. For problems in combining the judgements of multiple experts a variety of methods was studied. The methods include group consensus and mathematical techniques and the implications of using these methods in safety risk assessment was discussed. The FAA and the U.S. Navy's standard documents and policies were used to frame the discussions. This thesis has two main contributions. First, it evaluates the use of Normative Decision Analysis methods in safety decision process of Safety Critical Systems. It provides guidelines to decision makers on how to meaningfully use and/or combine different safety metrics in the decision process. Second, it identifies the best practices and methods of aggregating expert assessments pertaining to safety decision making.

Nutrients are the number one water pollution problem for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and ponds. Excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, lead to eutrophication, a condition that can include low oxygen levels, noxious algal blooms, and fish kills. Since eutrophication is a condition that manifests itself differently in different systems, there is not a criterion variable with a clear threshold that can be used to set the criterion level. This dissertation presents an approach to address the question: How should States and Tribes choose nutrient criteria to determine eutrophication-related impairments of the designated use? To address this question I used a combination of water quality modeling and decision analysis to determine the optimal nutrient criterion variables and levels. To choose criterion variables that are predictive of the designated use, I utilized statistical models (structural equation models, multiple regression, and binomial regression model) to link the measured water quality variables to expert elicited categories of eutrophication and the designated uses. These models were applied successfully to single waterbodies, the Kissimmee Chain-of-Lakes region, and the State of North Carolina to assess which candidate criterion variables were the most predictive. Additionally, the models indicated that the variables that were most predictive of eutrophication were also the most predictive of the designated use. Using the predictive nutrient criteria variables, I applied a decision-analytic approach to nutrient criteria setting in North Carolina. I developed a nutrient criteria value model that included two submodels, a water quality model and a multiattribute value model. The submodels were parameterized using a combination of water quality data, expert elicitation data, and utility assessments. The outcome of the nutrient criteria value model is the overall expected value for a criterion level choice; the optimal criterion level would be the choice that maximized the expected value. Using the preferences of North Carolina environmental decision-makers and a total phosphorus criterion variable, the optimal criterion level was between 0.03 mg/L and 0.07 mg/L. Ultimately, I hope this research will establish methodology used to set appropriate water quality criteria. / Dissertation

An ongoing objective in healthcare is the development of tools to improve patient decision-making and surgical outcomes for patients with breast cancer that have undergone or plan to undergo breast reconstruction. In keeping with the bioethical concept of autonomy, these decision models are patient-oriented and expansive, covering a range of different patient decision-makers. In pursuit of these goals, this dissertation contributes to the development of a prototype shared decision support system that will guide patients with breast cancer and their physicians in making decisions about breast reconstruction. This dissertation applies principles in decision analysis to breast reconstruction decision-making. In this dissertation, we examine three important areas of decision-making: (1) the options available to decision-makers, (2) the validity of probabilistic information assessed from reconstructive surgeons, and (3) the feasibility of applying multiattribute utility theory. In addition, it discusses the influences of breast aesthetics and proposes a measure for quantifying such influences. The dissertation concludes with a fictional case study that demonstrates the integration of the findings and application of decision analysis in patient-oriented shared breast reconstruction decision-making. Through the implementation of decision analysis principles, cognitive biases and emotion may be attenuated, clearing the decision-maker’s judgment, and ostensibly leading to good decisions. While good decisions cannot guarantee good outcomes at the individual level, they can be expected to improve outcomes for patients with breast cancer as a whole. And regardless of the outcome, good decisions yield clarity of action and grant the decision-maker a measure of peace in an otherwise uncertain world. / text

Como em qualquer outra organização, as empresas de engenharia química vêm cada vez mais utilizando ferramentas de Tomadas de Decisão para escolhas de soluções técnicas para projetos, operações, desenvolvimento, dentre tantas. A tomada de decisão é o processo de responder a um problema, utilizando um conjunto de técnicas qualitativas e quantitativas para selecionar a solução ou ação, dentre várias alternativas que seja mais adequada para a resolução daquele problema. Dentre estas ferramentas, as mais utilizadas são a MAUT, do inglês Multiattribute Utility Theory (Teoria de Utilidade Multiatributos) e a AHP, do inglês Analytic Hierarchy Process (Processo de Análise Hierárquica).Neste trabalho, estes dois métodos são aplicados num mesmo problema de engenharia química: a seleção de um sistema para tratamento de compostos orgânicos voláteis durante o carregamento de navios que transportam petróleo e derivados. Para isto é realizada, em primeiro lugar, a descrição detalhada de cada método, a conceituação de composto orgânico volátil, a legislação pertinente e a descrição de cada alternativa como solução para controle deste tipo de emissão. Os resultados apontados pelos métodos MAUT e AHP são então comparados a fim de verificar se ambos conduzem a mesma solução. Pretende-se também observar o grau de influencia das diferentes áreas de atuação de uma organização na escolha final da tomada de decisão e verificar as percepções dos profissionais sobre cada método aplicado. Percebeu-se, entretanto, que as metodologias não conduziram, neste trabalho, a soluções idênticas, devido à influência das características de cada método, e que profissionais de uma mesma área de atuação tendem a tomarem o mesmo tipo de decisão

Como em qualquer outra organização, as empresas de engenharia química vêm cada vez mais utilizando ferramentas de Tomadas de Decisão para escolhas de soluções técnicas para projetos, operações, desenvolvimento, dentre tantas. A tomada de decisão é o processo de responder a um problema, utilizando um conjunto de técnicas qualitativas e quantitativas para selecionar a solução ou ação, dentre várias alternativas que seja mais adequada para a resolução daquele problema. Dentre estas ferramentas, as mais utilizadas são a MAUT, do inglês Multiattribute Utility Theory (Teoria de Utilidade Multiatributos) e a AHP, do inglês Analytic Hierarchy Process (Processo de Análise Hierárquica).Neste trabalho, estes dois métodos são aplicados num mesmo problema de engenharia química: a seleção de um sistema para tratamento de compostos orgânicos voláteis durante o carregamento de navios que transportam petróleo e derivados. Para isto é realizada, em primeiro lugar, a descrição detalhada de cada método, a conceituação de composto orgânico volátil, a legislação pertinente e a descrição de cada alternativa como solução para controle deste tipo de emissão. Os resultados apontados pelos métodos MAUT e AHP são então comparados a fim de verificar se ambos conduzem a mesma solução. Pretende-se também observar o grau de influencia das diferentes áreas de atuação de uma organização na escolha final da tomada de decisão e verificar as percepções dos profissionais sobre cada método aplicado. Percebeu-se, entretanto, que as metodologias não conduziram, neste trabalho, a soluções idênticas, devido à influência das características de cada método, e que profissionais de uma mesma área de atuação tendem a tomarem o mesmo tipo de decisão

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to create an understanding of Swedish college students’ attitudes towards charity Second Hand through Fishbein's multi-attribute model. Attitudes towards Fast Fashion have also been measured in the model to enable a comparison between the two objects. This is to gain a broader knowledge of the attitudes that could motivate Swedish college students to consume Second Hand rather than newly produced. Design/Methods: The study is written based on a quantitative approach where data collection has been conducted with a survey that concerns Second Hand and Fast Fashion. This in order to have the opportunity to compare the two objects with each other in the analysis. The study aims to create an understanding of Swedish college students' attitudes, based on Guiot and Roux (2010) and Ferraro, Sands and Brace-Govan's (2016) motivational perspective, towards charity Second Hand. Two questions have been formulated to answer the purpose of the study. These concern attitudes and motivational perspectives towards the charity's second hand. The analysis is based on a theoretical framework based on Fishbein's multi-attribute model. Results: The results of the study show that Swedish college students’ tend to have different attitudes towards the charity Second Hand, depending on how continuously they consume fashion from the secondary market. This because of the importance of the attributes environment and unique / original that is better appreciated by the college students who continuously consume Second Hand. The students have in common that they believe that price and atmosphere in stores are the two most important elements when consuming fashion. The study discuss how well Second Hand and Fast Fashion relate to these expectations for a consumer experience. Finally this study contributes with increased understanding of Swedish college students’ attitudes towards charity Second Hand. However, the knowledge is limited due to a smaller selection. The study also contributes with reflections on how the industry can increase its attractiveness. In order to gain a better understanding of the students’ attitudes, further research with a qualitative approach is recommended. This study is written in Swedish. / Syfte: Studiens syfte är att skapa en förståelse av svenska högskolestudenters attityder tillvälgörenhets Second Hand genom Fishbeins multiattributsmodell. Attityder till Fast Fashionhar även mätts i modellen för att möjliggöra en jämförelse mellan de två objekten. Detta för att få en bredare kunskap om de attityder som skulle kunna motivera svenska högskolestudenter att konsumera Second Hand framför nyproducerat. Design/Metod: Studien är skriven utifrån ett kvantitativt angreppssätt där datainsamlingen hargenomförts med en enkätundersökning som berör Second Hand samt Fast Fashion. Detta för att ha möjlighet att ställa de två objekten emot varandra i analysen. Studien syfte är att skapa en förståelse kring hur svenska högskolestudenters attityder, utifrån Guiot och Roux (2010)samt Ferraro, Sands och Brace-Govans (2016) motivationsperspektiv, är gentemot välgörenhets Second Hand. För att besvara studiens syfte har två frågeställningar formulerats. Dessa berörattityder samt motivationsperspektiv gentemot välgörenhets Second Hand. Analysen grundar sig i ett teoretiskt ramverk utifrån Fishbeins multiattributsmodell. Resultat: Studiens resultat visar på att svenska högskolestudenter tenderar att ha olika attityder gentemot välgörenhets Second Hand beroende på hur kontinuerligt de konsumerar mode frånandrahandsmarknaden. Detta då betydelsen av attributen miljö och unikt/originellt värderasbättre hos högskolestudenterna som kontinuerligt konsumerar Second Hand. Gemensamt anser dem att pris och atmosfär i butik är två viktigaste beståndsdelar när de konsumerar mode. Studien diskuterar därmed hur väl Second Hand och Fast Fashion förhåller sig till dessa förväntningar för en köpupplevelse. Slutligen bidrar denna studie med en ökad förståelse för svenska högskolestudenters attityder gentemot välgörenhets Second Hand. Förståelsen är dock begränsad på grund av ett mindre urval. Studien bidrar även med reflektioner över hur branschen kan öka sin attraktivitet. För att få en mer bakomliggande förståelse för studenternas attityder rekommenderas vidare forskning med ett kvalitativt angreppssätt.

Auditory preemption theory suggests two competing assumptions for the attention-capturing and performance-altering properties of auditory tasks. In onset preemption, attention is immediately diverted to the auditory channel. Strategic preemption involves a decision process in which the operator maintains focus on more complex auditory messages. The limitation in this process is that the human auditory, or echoic, memory store has a limit of 2 to 5 seconds, after which the message must be processed or it decays. In contrast, multiple resource theory suggests that visual and auditory tasks may be efficiently time-shared because two different pools of cognitive resources are used. Previous research regarding these competing assumptions has been limited and equivocal. Thus, the current research focused on systematically examining the effects of complexity and timing of communication interruptions on visual detection tasks. It was hypothesized that both timing and complexity levels would impact detection performance in a multi-task environment. Study 1 evaluated the impact of complexity and timing of communications occurring before malfunctions in an ongoing visual detection task. Twenty-four participants were required to complete each of the eight timing blocks that included simple or complex communications occurring simultaneously, and at 2, 5, or 8 seconds before detection events. For simple communications, participants repeated three pre-recorded words. However, for complex communications, they generated three words beginning with the same last letter of a word prompt. Results indicated that complex communications at two seconds or less occurring before a visual detection event significantly impacted response time with a 1.3 to 1.6 second delay compared to all the other timings. Detection accuracy for complex communication tasks under the simultaneous condition was significantly degraded compared to simple communications at five seconds or more prior to the task. This resulted in a 20% decline in detection accuracy. Additionally, participants' workload ratings for complex communications were significantly higher than simple communications. Study 2 examined the timing of communications occurring at the corresponding seconds after the visual detection event. Twenty-four participants were randomly assigned to the communication complexity and timing blocks as in study 1. The results did not find significant performance effects of timing or complexity of communications on detection performance. However the workload ratings for the 2 and 5 second complex communication presentations were higher compared to the same simple communication conditions. Overall, these findings support the strategic preemption assumption for well-defined, complex communications. The onset preemption assumption for simple communications was not supported. These results also suggest that the boundaries of the multiple resource theory assumption may exist up to the limits of the echoic memory store. Figures of merit for task performance under the varying levels of timing and complexity are presented. Several theoretical and practical implications are discussed.