Orientador: Eduardo Strachamn / Banca: Enéas Gonçalves de Carvalho / Banca: Ernani Torres Teixeira Filho / Resumo: O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a experiência do Japão após os colapsos das bolhas especulativas dos ativos na década de 1990. Aceitando que o pior já passou, ou seja, que a crise financeira japonesa foi finalmente resolvida, uma coisa é certa; não antes de uma "década perdida" caracterizada por um longo período, de baixo crescimento, aumento das taxas de desemprego, deflação nos preços dos ativos, falências bancárias e persistência dos no-performing loans. Nesse contexto, as principais respostas obtidas por este trabalho foram: a crença que a recuperação econômica viria com o passar do tempo e a falta de entendimento sobre o tamanho do problema que a morosidade de atuação levaria ao sistema, explica em certo ponto a tolerância inicial do governo japonês frente à crise econômica. A política fiscal expansionista foi eficaz, mas, não utilizada de forma consistente, a natureza "stop-start" dos estímulos realizados, e em particular as prematuras reversões fiscais diminuíram a sua eficácia, outros fatores prováveis para a baixa eficácia durante os anos 90 foram: os estímulos fiscais podem ter sido prejudicados pela queda dos multiplicadores fiscais; os efetivos investimentos públicos foram menores que os anunciados e ao invés de se dar ênfase a obras públicas, priorizou-se cortes em impostos. De outra forma, um caminho fundamental de maximizar os estímulos fiscais é através da restauração do crédito do setor bancário, caso a recapitalização e as restaurações do setor fossem realizas em uma fase inicial, os efeitos dos estímulos poderiam ser de curta duração, se o sistema financeiro estivesse em boa saúde. No Japão, as injeções nos bancos "em grande escala" ocorreram apenas em 1999. Por outro lado, a política monetária, com base em uma versão alternativa da armadilha da liquidez levou o BOJ a tomar algumas medidas... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: This dissertation intend to analyze the experience of Japan after the collapse of speculative bubbles in assets in the 1990s. Accepting that the worst is over, that is to say, that the Japanese financial crisis was finally resolved, one thing is certain; not before a "lost decade" characterized by a long period of low growth, increasing rates of unemployment, deflation in asset prices, bank failures and persistence of no-performing loans. In this context, the main responses received for this work were: the belief that economic recovery would come with the passage of time and lack of understanding about the size of the problem that the slowness of action would lead to the system; this explains in some degree the initial tolerance of the Japanese government by the economic crisis. The expansionary fiscal was effective, but not consistently used, the nature of "stop-start" of the stimuli made, and in particular the early tax reversals decreased its effectiveness, other likely factors for the low efficiency during the year 1990 were: the fiscal stimuli may have been harmed by falling tax multipliers; the effective public investments were lower than those advertised instead of giving emphasis to public works, the priority was tax cuts. On the other hand, a fundamental way to maximize the tax incentives is through the restoration of credit from the banking sector, if the recapitalization and the restorations of the sector were held in an early stage, the effects of stimuli could be short term, if the financial system was in good health. In Japan, the injections in banks "large scale" occurred only in 1999. Moreover, monetary policy, based on an alternative version of the liquidity trap led the BOJ to take some innovative measures since 2001. Centered on a strategy to ensure liquidity and extend the warranties on direct purchases of assets, quantitative easing was implanted... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

This thesis deals with the default of households as one of the indicators of financial stability in the Czech Republic. Specifically, it studies increasing indeptedness of households and risks which endanger financial system. The aim is to analyze the main macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that affect households default and to determine their dependence on the non-performing loans. The conclusion summarizes the results of the thesis and suggests recommendations for central and commercial banks.

這篇論文討論關於中國銀行部門國際化及競爭力的問題 共有三個問題: 1.國際化如何存於中國銀行體系 2.國際化是否成功地促進中國銀行的競爭力 3.如果有競爭力化下,中國銀行會變得如何? / This paper addresses the questions related to the internationalization of China’s banking sector and implications for the competitiveness in China’s banking sector: 1) How did internationalization exist in China’s banking sector? 2) Did internationalization successfully create the competitiveness in China’s banking sector? 3) With such phenomenon, what will be the implications towards China’s banking sector? Therefore, this paper first will propose a framework for recognizing the internationalization in the China’s banking sector by comparing the banking sector in China before and after its WTO entry. Secondly, it will examine the competitiveness in China’s banking sector by analyzing the four indicators: 1) financial liberalization, 2) technological progress, 3) rating by international rating agency, and 4) Economic Growth. Also this paper will examine the competitiveness of two major commercial banks: Bank of China (BOC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) as a case study by analyzing the three indicators. They are: 1) profitability, 2) non-performing loans ratio, and 3) expansion. Finally, this paper will discuss the prospects and challenges in China’s banking sector.

Die Sanierung notleidender Kredite ist in den Banken und in der Wissenschaft ein prominentes Thema. Banken installieren eigene Abteilungen, denen Aufgabe die Betreuung solcher in Zahlungsverzug befindlicher Engagements obliegt. Die Wissenschaft untersucht den Themenkomplex in allen Facetten, das weithin bekannteste Gebiet sind die prognostizierten Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten für Unternehmen und Staaten, gemeinhin Ratings. Neben der Ermittlung der Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Zahlungsverzuges widmen sich andere Autoren den Maßnahmen, welche während einer Sanierung ergriffen werden. So auch die hier vorliegende. Einem Kreditinstitut steht im Rahmen einer Sanierung eine Vielzahl an Maßnahmen zur Verfügung. Wie wirken diese Maßnahmen auf das angestrebte Ziel der Sanierung? Unterscheiden sich Maßnahmen, die einen gleich gelagerten Fokus haben, in ihrem Einfluss auf das Ergebnis der Sanierung? Läßt sich also eine Empfehlung ableiten, welche Maßnahmen ergriffen werden sollen, um beispielsweise das Überleben eines Unternehmens zu erreichen? Der Arbeit liegt ein Datensatz zugrunde, der Daten zu deutschen Unternehmen enthält, die dem Segment der Klein- und mittelständischen zuzuordnen sind. Die verwendeten Daten wurden nicht, wie sonst üblich, aus teils frei verfügbaren Datenbanken abgerufen, sondern konnten aus den Unterlagen eines Kreditinstitutes erhoben werden. Sie bieten damit ein breiteres Spektrum als bereits aufbereitete Daten. Zum anderen konnten Informationen verarbeitet werden, die nur dem Kreditinstitut zur Verfügung stehen und im Regelfall nicht an Dritte zur Veröffentlich weitergegeben werden. Die Auswertung der erhobenen und aufbereiteten Daten erfolgt in zwei Stufen. In einem ersten Schritt werden durch univariate logistische Regressionen die aussagekräftigen Maßnahmen identifiziert. Diese Variablen werden in einem zweiten Schritt in multivariaten logistischen Regression überprüft. Das Ergebnis dieses Schrittes sind Modelle, die den Einfluss bestimmter Maßnahmen auf den jeweiligen Ausgang einer Sanierung beschreiben. Die Aufbereitung und Auswertung der Maßnahmen erfolgt hier in einem sehr hohen Detailgrad, der in anderen Arbeiten nur teilweise anzuztreffen ist. Es lassen sich anhand des Datensatzes Maßnahmen identifizieren, deren Ergreifen einen Einfluss auf den Ausgang der Untersuchung hat. Durch die aufgestellten Modelle ist es nicht ur möglich, diese Maßnahmen zu identifizieren, sondern auch ihren Einfluss zu quantifizieren. Dies erfolgt über die sog. „odd ratios“, die eine Aussage darüber liefern, wie sich das Chancen-Verhältnis einer Zielgröße ändert, wenn die im Fokus stehende Variable um eine Einheit geändert wird. Neben einer Ergänzung der bestehenden Literatur zu diesem Thema schafft diese Arbeit auch konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen für die Praxis.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:23:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-02-08Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:30:20Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 fraga_js_me_arafcl.pdf: 570399 bytes, checksum: c4d98662c4b2a66e86a84c364b2ae848 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a experiência do Japão após os colapsos das bolhas especulativas dos ativos na década de 1990. Aceitando que o pior já passou, ou seja, que a crise financeira japonesa foi finalmente resolvida, uma coisa é certa; não antes de uma “década perdida” caracterizada por um longo período, de baixo crescimento, aumento das taxas de desemprego, deflação nos preços dos ativos, falências bancárias e persistência dos no-performing loans. Nesse contexto, as principais respostas obtidas por este trabalho foram: a crença que a recuperação econômica viria com o passar do tempo e a falta de entendimento sobre o tamanho do problema que a morosidade de atuação levaria ao sistema, explica em certo ponto a tolerância inicial do governo japonês frente à crise econômica. A política fiscal expansionista foi eficaz, mas, não utilizada de forma consistente, a natureza “stop-start” dos estímulos realizados, e em particular as prematuras reversões fiscais diminuíram a sua eficácia, outros fatores prováveis para a baixa eficácia durante os anos 90 foram: os estímulos fiscais podem ter sido prejudicados pela queda dos multiplicadores fiscais; os efetivos investimentos públicos foram menores que os anunciados e ao invés de se dar ênfase a obras públicas, priorizou-se cortes em impostos. De outra forma, um caminho fundamental de maximizar os estímulos fiscais é através da restauração do crédito do setor bancário, caso a recapitalização e as restaurações do setor fossem realizas em uma fase inicial, os efeitos dos estímulos poderiam ser de curta duração, se o sistema financeiro estivesse em boa saúde. No Japão, as injeções nos bancos “em grande escala” ocorreram apenas em 1999. Por outro lado, a política monetária, com base em uma versão alternativa da armadilha da liquidez levou o BOJ a tomar algumas medidas... / This dissertation intend to analyze the experience of Japan after the collapse of speculative bubbles in assets in the 1990s. Accepting that the worst is over, that is to say, that the Japanese financial crisis was finally resolved, one thing is certain; not before a “lost decade” characterized by a long period of low growth, increasing rates of unemployment, deflation in asset prices, bank failures and persistence of no-performing loans. In this context, the main responses received for this work were: the belief that economic recovery would come with the passage of time and lack of understanding about the size of the problem that the slowness of action would lead to the system; this explains in some degree the initial tolerance of the Japanese government by the economic crisis. The expansionary fiscal was effective, but not consistently used, the nature of “stop-start” of the stimuli made, and in particular the early tax reversals decreased its effectiveness, other likely factors for the low efficiency during the year 1990 were: the fiscal stimuli may have been harmed by falling tax multipliers; the effective public investments were lower than those advertised instead of giving emphasis to public works, the priority was tax cuts. On the other hand, a fundamental way to maximize the tax incentives is through the restoration of credit from the banking sector, if the recapitalization and the restorations of the sector were held in an early stage, the effects of stimuli could be short term, if the financial system was in good health. In Japan, the injections in banks “large scale” occurred only in 1999. Moreover, monetary policy, based on an alternative version of the liquidity trap led the BOJ to take some innovative measures since 2001. Centered on a strategy to ensure liquidity and extend the warranties on direct purchases of assets, quantitative easing was implanted... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

The subject of the diploma thesis "Analysis of Systemically Important Italian Banks and the overall stability of the banking sector" is the analysis of the current situation and the latest developments in the Italian banking sector with a focus on systemically important institutions. The first part describes the general state of current banking in Italy after the global crisis, including a brief historical introduction and pre-crisis development. It provides information on entity and ownership structure, capital adequacy and liquidity, and the overall structure of assets and liabilities of the sector. Particular attention is paid to the problem of non-performing loans and the impact on banks' profitability. The second part begins with the definition of systemically important banks and focuses on the analysis of individual banks with an emphasis on those systemically important. In the bank's stability and health assessment, the development of the portfolios of non-performing loans is highlighted. The final part of the thesis deals with the summary of Italian banking problems and assesses the stability of the sector in the context of the euro area.

Die europäische Union hat Programme installiert (EFSF, EFSM, ESM) oder ist dabei dies zu tun (Europäische Einlagensicherung EDIS), die darauf hinauslaufen, dass Kapital von weniger korrupten Ländern in Länder mit höherem Korruptionsgrad transferiert wird. Die Literatur deckt einen deutlichen Zusammenhang zwischen Kreditgeschäft und Korruption auf. In korrupteren Regionen verzeichnen Banken mehr Kreditausfälle und verbuchen mehr Non-Performing-Loans. Korruption im Kreditgeschäft ist sowohl auf der Schuldnerseite (i), wie auch auf der (ii) Gläubigerseite wie auch auf der (iii) Seite der Regierung bzw. Regulatorik anzutreffen. Korrupte Länder zeichnen sich durch schwache Rechtssysteme aus, die es Gläubigern erschweren, ihre Rechte durchzusetzen. In Griechenland spricht man von „strategischen“ Kreditnehmern, die es von vornherein darauf anlegen, Kredite nicht ordnungsgemäß zu bedienen. Außer privaten Schuldnern zeigen auch öffentliche Schuldner in korrupteren Ländern eine höhere Ausfallquote ihrer Kredite („Moratorium“). Im Ergebnis bedeutet dies, dass es für Kapitalgeber ein großes Risiko darstellt, finanzielle Hilfen an korrupte Länder zu leisten. In Zukunft sollten bei allen europäischen Projekten, die mit rückzahlbaren Geldtransfers in Länder mit hohem Korruptionsgrad verbunden sind oder sein können, eine Korruptionsauswirkungsanalyse („corruption impact assessment“) angefertigt werden, welche die voraussichtlichen Folgen der Korruption für das Projekt darlegt. Außerdem sollten Banken in korrupteren Ländern mehr Eigenkapital halten. Die Europäische Einlagensicherung sollte aufgeschoben werden. / The European Union installed financial programs that enable the transfer of money from less corrupt countries into countries with higher corruption grades (EFSF, EFSM, ESM, European deposit insurance EDIS). This is a risk for lenders in less corrupt countries. The scientific literature proofs that there is a significant correlation between the corruption grade of a country and the Non-Performing-Loan-quota (i) and loan losses (ii). Corruption can be traced back to actions of debtors, of lenders and of regulators. The latter refuse to install strong legal systems that would enable it lenders to enforce their rights. In corrupt countries a collaboration of many parties at the expense of outsiders and especially foreigners can be observed. In Greece the term “strategic borrower” has been established to describe the phenomenon that borrowers systematically try to evade the redemption of their loans with the help of the weak legal system. Taken altogether it is risky for European lenders to transfer money into corrupt jurisdictions. It seems to be necessary to complement European financial projects with detailed impact assessments of the corruption-problem. Banks in corrupt countries should hold higher equity ratios. The European deposit insurance should be suspended.

The banking sector is experiencing an increasing interest in evaluating environmental performance, social responsibility, and corporate governance (ESG), since the internationalcontext aroused discussions on advantages of incorporating ESG-related policies. Therefore,significant relationships between ESG engagement and financial performance and stabilityare expected. This study aims to analyse the impact of ESG engagement on financial stabilityin the banking sector including the period of economic distress. A sample size of 72 listedEuropean banks is studied during the period 2017-2022, using regression analysis. Z-score,Non-performing loan ratio and Tobin’s Q are proxies used to measure banks’ financialstability. Combined ESG score and individual Social, Environmental, and Governance pillarsfrom Refinitiv Eikon database are the target variables. Contrary to expectations, the findingsreveal that ESG engagement does not have a significant positive impact on financial stabilitywithin the banking sector. However, interestingly, among the three ESG pillars the social oneseems to decrease financial stability of banks in some estimations. It is also notable that theregression coefficients for target variables are quite low, especially in comparison withfinancial performance variables ROA and ROE, which indicates that ESG engagement maynot be the most influential factor in banks’ financial stability.

多角化是否能提升銀行獲利與降低風險？本文採2000年至2007年21家本國銀行之年資料，獲利以調整呆帳費用後之資產報酬率作為評估基礎；風險以資產報酬率的標準差衡量，利用追蹤資料分析法，探討銀行多角化程度對獲利與風險之影響，並分析對於逾放比率不同之銀行，其獲利、風險之影響因素是否有所差異，實證結果顯示：一、依品質一致性原則調整呆帳後之資產報酬率，較財報公佈之資產報酬率具較佳之解釋能力與統計顯著性；二、營業收入多角化可提升獲利與降低風險；資產配置多角化不但無法提升獲利，甚使其面臨更高之風險；轉投資模式與風險具有負向關係；三、金融控股公司經營模式與獲利具有正向關係；資產規模與風險具有負向關係；權益資產比及用人費用率與獲利、風險具有負向關係；總體環境因素和風險具有正向關係；四、對於低逾放比率銀行，分散營業收入來源，擴充銀行規模及提高自有資金比例，對其獲利與風險皆有正面之助益；對於高逾放比率銀行，僅有營業收入多角化模式可同時提升獲利與降低風險，意謂此類銀行除可採取營業收入多角化策略彌補呆帳損失外，亦應確實監控授信資產品質，方能有效地改善獲利能力與降低風險。 / Does diversification indeed lead to increase profitability and reduce risk? We use a panel dataset of 21 banks in Taiwan for the period from 2000 to 2007, bad debt-adjusted ROA serves as the measure of profitability and the standard deviation of ROA serves as the measure of risk. This study investigate the effect of diversification on profitability and risk and hope to know how it works out under different non-performing loans ratio. Our main finding are as follows:(i)Compare with ROA in financial statement ,bad debt-adjusted ROA making better significance. (ii)Revenue diversification has positive relation to increase profitability and negative to reduce risk. Asset diversification has negative relation to reduce profitability and positive relation to increase risk. Equity investment has negative relation between risk. (iii) Banks operating as part of financial holding companies can improve profitability. Size has negative relation between risk. Equity to asset ratio and compensation to revenue ratio have negative relation to reduce both profitability and risk. Macroeconomic factor has positive relation to increase risk.(iv)For low non-performing loans ratio banks, revenue diversification, size and equity to asset ratio have positive relation to increase profitability and negative to reduce risk. For high non-performing loans ratio banks, revenue diversification is the only way to improve banks’ profitability and reduce risk. It draws a conclusion that banks monitor loan need strengthening in high non-performing loans ratio banks.

This thesis deals with stress testing as a process that helps to assess the impact of potential adverse shocks on the soundness of a financial system. First section is dedicated to non-technical discussion about stress testing and to some methodological issues. The main focus lies on the system-wide macroeconomic stress testing. The empirical part of the thesis is a contribution to macroprudential analysis of the quality of the aggregate loan portfolio in the Czech Republic. This study adopts a vector autoregression model applied to the Czech banking sector in order to judge its stability and present some evidence on macroeconomic variables affecting the Czech banking system. As a measure of the strength of the loan portfolio is used the stock of non-performing loans vis-à-vis total loans in the sector. The thesis follows the widely used methodology and seeks to identify significant macroeconomic risk factors affecting the loan portfolio quality. The latter part aims also to forecast the most likely development of the loan portfolio.