Since the end of the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979, Northeast Asia and its comprising countries have avoided international conflict as well as any regional set has done over the past few decades. The absence of nuclear weapons among Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, in particular, is striking, given their technological and scientific capabilities. Though each of those countries has come close at times to developing their own nuclear weapons, one factor or another contributed to the failure of those upstart programs. The United States has played a significant role in all of them. Still, other factors remain. The purpose of this thesis is to determine in detail what caused the lack of a nuclear arms race in northeast Asia, beyond the American angle, as far as could be done. Existential threats exist to each country involved in the study, theoretically and tactically. Additionally, what causes an outlier like North Korea, which has boldly moved forward with nuclear weapons development? An important work by Scott Sagan is utilized in the thesis to assist with developing some far-reaching conclusions, with great importance to other parts of the world, beyond northeast Asia. Other literature can assist with those conclusions, as well. The framework of this thesis will be to intermingle a somewhat amended version of Sagan's nuclear proliferation rationalizations with historical analyses to draft some region-specific conclusions about why northeast Asia has not had a nuclear arms race. Processes going on between countries, within countries, and among countries, militarily, culturally, and economically, play such important roles than none can be discarded. The economic power centered on the capitalist core of northeast Asia can show how nuclear weapons acquisition is no longer among the things necessary to gain international respect or even security.

One of the key features of the 2002 United States National Security Strategy was an abrupt shift from the traditional U.S. approach to proliferation threats that prioritized deterrence and promotion of nondiscriminatory nonproliferation norms, to an approach called counterproliferation that emphasized military preemption and direct challenges to adversarial state identity. This thesis asks the question, what caused counterproliferation to largely replace deterrence and nonproliferation as the central national security policies of the U.S. concerning unconventional weapons? The thesis argues that to understand this policy change requires not merely an appreciation of changes in the post-Cold War international security environment, but also an examination of how culturally shaped threat conceptions among American policymakers interacted with capabilities development and policy institutionalization within the U.S. military. As no current theory adequately addresses those dynamics, complimentary strategic culture and organizational theory models are presented as the framework for analysis. This thesis will contend that policy shift from NP to CP resulted from the merging of strategic cultural efforts aimed at legitimizing conceptions of proliferation threats as originating from state identity, with a military organizational drive to avoid uncertainty through the development of counterproliferation capabilities. Together these strategic cultural and organizational responses to shifting proliferation threats altered the menu of choice for policymakers by institutionalizing and legitimizing a policy response that directly challenged existing nonproliferation norms and practices. This thesis relies on a detailed case study of the evolution of counterproliferation policy from 1993 to 2002, with particular focus on the analysis of public discourse, declassified policy planning and Department of Defense documents, and participant interviews.

Orientador: Shiguenoli Miyamoto / Banca: Hector Luis Saint-Pierre / Banca: Suzeley Kalil Mathias / O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais é instituído em parceria com Unesp/Unicamp/PUC-SP, em projeto subsidiado pela CAPES, intitulado "Programa San Tiago Dantas" / Resumo: A presente dissertação analisa as mudanças nos elementos domésticos e internacionais que influenciaram a decisão do governo brasileiro de aderir ao Tratado de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares (TNP) em 1998, após três décadas de rejeição a ele. Essa rejeição era justificada pelo caráter discriminatório do Tratado, que concedia privilégios aos países possuidores de armas nucleares e impedia o desenvolvimento tecnológico autônomo daqueles que não as possuíam. A pesquisa revelou que, em consonância com a explicação oficial, a alteração de postura com relação ao TNP foi fruto das mudanças que ocorreram no plano internacional após o fim da Guerra Fria, juntamente com as mudanças internas, com o fim do regime militar. A manutenção da renúncia ao TNP pareceu, então, infundada por ser incapaz de trazer benefícios práticos para o país e, além disso, causar danos políticos à imagem e à credibilidade externa do país, característica considerada essencial para a obtenção de vantagens no novo contexto internacional / Abstract: This Master's thesis analyzes the changes in domestic and international factors that influenced Brazilian government's decision to accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1998 after three decades rejecting it. This rejection was justified by the discriminatory character of the Treaty, which granted privileges to countries possessing nuclear weapons and prevented the autonomous technological development of those which didn't possess them. The survey showed that, in line with the official explanation, the change of attitude to the NPT was the result of the changes that have occurred internationally since the end of the Cold War, along with internal changes, with he end of military regime. The maintenance of rejection to the NPT seems to be, then, seless, for being unable to bring practical benefits to the country and also for causing political damage to the country's external image and credibility, a characteristic considered essential to obtain advantages in the new international context / Mestre

Text in English / Energy is the natural power stored in matter which can be potential and kinetic energy. This occurs in nature in various forms such as chemical energy, thermal energy, electromagnetic radiation, gravitational energy, electric energy, elastic energy, nuclear energy, and rest energy. The scientific research relating to nuclear energy has revealed that atoms are the foundation of matter. In 1905 Albert Einstein initiated the quantum revolution utilising the Newtonian mass-energy equivalence concept in order to put his famous equation: E =mc2, where energy is (E). This facilitated the nuclear research which focused on manufacturing the first atomic bomb. In 1945 the USA acquired its first two atomic bombs which were dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, killing 200 000 people; mostly civilians. But nuclear energy research has been redirected by scientists in order to industrialise nuclear technology in order to address growing power needs. This encouraged policy makers to consider the risks posed by utilising nuclear energy for civil purposes. The shift towards peaceful nuclear energy applications has been motivated by the many valuable contributions to humankind which nuclear energy offers - for instance in the fields of energy generation, human health, agriculture and industry. The nature of nuclear energy lends itself to becoming an important component of the world energy and global economic system. Nuclear energy is a viable option for many countries including South Africa, because it offers an economic and clean source of electricity; the primary engine for socio-economic development. South Africa operates the only two nuclear power reactors in Africa, (Koeberg 1 and Koeberg 2) generating 1.8 GWe. South Africa’s energy supply infrastructure consists fundamentally of coal-fired power plants which pose serious threats to the environment. Therefore, it is assumed that the planned 9.6 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2030 will meet the requirements of South Africa’s policy regarding the diversification of available energy resources to secure energy supply, support economic growth, and contribute to environmental management. Consequently, the legal system which governs nuclear energy programme is intended to prohibit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, ensure security and maintain the safe operation of nuclear facilities. / Public, Constitutional, & International Law / LL.D.

Energy is the natural power stored in matter which can be potential and kinetic energy. This occurs in nature in various forms such as chemical energy, thermal energy, electromagnetic radiation, gravitational energy, electric energy, elastic energy, nuclear energy, and rest energy. The scientific research relating to nuclear energy has revealed that atoms are the foundation of matter. In 1905 Albert Einstein initiated the quantum revolution utilising the Newtonian mass-energy equivalence concept in order to put his famous equation: E =mc2, where energy is (E). This facilitated the nuclear research which focused on manufacturing the first atomic bomb. In 1945 the USA acquired its first two atomic bombs which were dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, killing 200 000 people; mostly civilians. But nuclear energy research has been redirected by scientists in order to industrialise nuclear technology in order to address growing power needs. This encouraged policy makers to consider the risks posed by utilising nuclear energy for civil purposes. The shift towards peaceful nuclear energy applications has been motivated by the many valuable contributions to humankind which nuclear energy offers - for instance in the fields of energy generation, human health, agriculture and industry. The nature of nuclear energy lends itself to becoming an important component of the world energy and global economic system. Nuclear energy is a viable option for many countries including South Africa, because it offers an economic and clean source of electricity; the primary engine for socio-economic development. South Africa operates the only two nuclear power reactors in Africa, (Koeberg 1 and Koeberg 2) generating 1.8 GWe. South Africa’s energy supply infrastructure consists fundamentally of coal-fired power plants which pose serious threats to the environment. Therefore, it is assumed that the planned 9.6 GW of new nuclear capacity by 2030 will meet the requirements of South Africa’s policy regarding the diversification of available energy resources to secure energy supply, support economic growth, and contribute to environmental management. Consequently, the legal system which governs nuclear energy programme is intended to prohibit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, ensure security and maintain the safe operation of nuclear facilities. / Public, Constitutional, and International Law / LL. D.

北韓自1950年代起逐步建立其核武實力，形成對國際社會的嚴重威脅，基於其政權生存與經濟的需要，動輒以核武要脅國際社會換取能源、糧食援助及安全保障。1994年第一次北韓核武危機結束後，由於美國與北韓後續未確實履行核框架協議，從2002年10月北韓承認恢復其核計畫、美國開始停止對北韓供應重油起，北韓動作頻頻，除自2003年1月10日起宣佈退出禁止核子武器擴散條約外，更積極發展核武抗衡美國與國際社會，對相關國家的安全造成莫大影響，並期望藉此獲得所需的政治利益與經濟援助。北韓的行為引起國際關注，視之為第二次北韓核武危機。中共、南韓、日本、俄羅斯及美國對此均投以高度關注，努力謀求解決之道，而中共更是此次核武危機演變與發展的關鍵斡旋角色。 第二次北韓核武危機發生以來，中共對核武問題的解決發生了建設性的作用，各輪會談能夠持續運作，中共以穿梭外交遊走於各國功不可沒，其角色重要而多樣，儼然成為斡旋者、調停者、領導者、防衛者、緩衝器、利益攸關者、平衡者、機制建議者，若依北韓核武危機往良性發展的端倪來看，未來中共更可能兼具經濟支援者、安全保障者和制度監督者的角色。此次的核武危機為中共大國外交提供難得的歷史機運，藉由複雜的危機解決過程，緩和了危機的緊張態勢，更藉由與各國間的互動與合作，獲得實質外交進展，提高了中共的國際影響力，同時這樣的作為也是符合各方利益的最佳選擇。 本文主要包含兩大方向：首先探討第二次北韓核武危機的背景與判斷北韓發展核武的動機，繼之簡述兩次核武危機始末；接著統整自三邊會談、六方會談召開以來之情勢發展及與會各國互動形成的共識共決，分析中共居中的角色與其國家利益之間的關聯性，並研判該議題未來走向。 / Since 1950s North Korea has gradually built up its nuclear weapon capabilities, forming a serious threat to international community. Based on the need of regime survival and economy, North Korea frequently uses nuclear weapons in threatening international community for exchanges of energy, food aid and security assurances. After the end of the First North Korea Nuclear Crisis in 1994, US and North Korea did not actually carry out the Agreed Framework, North Korea confessed to restart its nuclear program in October 2002 while US suspended supplying heavy fuel oil to North Korea. In addition to its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, North Korea also actively develops nuclear weapons to contend with the US and international community, bringing about huge impacts on the security of relative countries, hoping to exchange for more political benefit and economic assistance. The behavior of North Korea has raised international attention, regarding it as the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis. China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the US all pay high attention and work hard to seek for solutions to the crisis. China has played a key role in the evolution and development of the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis. Since the inception of the 2nd North Korea Nuclear Crisis, China has turned out to be constructively pivotal in solving nuclear weapon problems. The fact that six rounds of talks can take place continuously go to China’s credit, which pursues shuttle diplomacy to coordinate the activities of the other six-party talks participators, playing roles that are important yet various, apparently becoming a mediator, good officer, host, defender, buffer, stakeholder, balancer, mechanism keeper, and, in viewing from the point that North Korea Nuclear Crisis has been developed toward a more positive direction, China will more than likely take key role as economic supporter, security guarantor and mechanism supervisor. This nuclear crisis provides China a rare historical opportunity of big-power diplomacy. Through complex crisis solving process to détente intense situation and the interaction and cooperation among Northeast Asian nations to obtain actual diplomatic progress, the influence of China has soared while such action is the best choice in complying with relative nation’s interests. The study mainly include two directions: At first the background of the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis be reviewed and the motive of North Korea in developing nuclear weapon be determined. Then how the two nuclear crises began and ended are briefly stated, followed by integration of situation development since the Three-party talks, Six-party talks and the common agreement formed among participating nations. The role of China and relations to its interest is analyzed and thus the future direction of the issues is also carefully studied.