This paper investigates the determinants of excess returns using dividend yields as a proxy in a cross-sectional setting. First, we find that types of industry and the current business cycle are determining factors of returns. Second, our results suggest that dividend yield serves a signaling mechanism indicating “healthiness” of a firm among prospective investors. Third we see that there is a positive relationship between dividend yield and risk, especially in the utility and financial sectors. And finally, using actual excess returns, instead of dividend yield in our model shows that all predictors of dividend yield were also significant predictors of excess returns. This connection between dividend yield and excess returns support our use of dividend yield as a proxy for excess returns.

Föreliggande uppsats avser bidra till att fylla gapet till den svenska forskningen om utdelningspolitiken för familjeföretag i Sverige. Studier om utdelningspolitik i familjeföretag och vilka faktorer som påverkar den är förhållandevis marginell. Studien analyserar familjeföretag listade på OMX Stockholm under tidsperioden 2005-2018. Ett urval om 25 företag har inkluderats i studien och bortfallen summeras till 11 företag.   Ett av studiens t-test fördelade familjeföretagen i två grupper, de som ägde över och under 50 procent av de röstberättigade aktierna. t-testet undersöker hypotes 1. Resultatet visar att det inte är statistiskt säkerställt att majoritetsägande påverkar utdelningsnivån. Hypotes 2 undersöks genom ett t-est. Vid genomförandet av t-testet utformades subgrupper till de två ovannämnda grupperna. Subgrupperna ställdes mot varandra för att undersöka en skillnad i utdelningsnivå. Hypotes 1 och 2 accepterades för båda t-testen som undersöktes med en signifikansnivå på 5 procent. Utöver t-testen har det genomförts en multivariat analys. Med hjälp av den multivariata analysen identifierades ett negativt samband mellan ägarkoncentration och utdelningsnivå, samt ett positivt samband mellan lönsamhet och utdelningsnivå. / This paper seeks to fill the gap in Swedish research about dividend policy. Studies about which key numbers that affect the dividend policy in family firms are marginal. The study involves family firms listed on OMX Stockholm between 2005 til 2018.   One of the studies t-tests examine families that have majority positions and minority positions. The result is not statistical reliable. Therefore the t-test cannot show a difference in the average dividend payout ratio with a significance level at 5 percent. A Multivariate analysis has been made. It shows a negative correlation between ownership and dividend payout ratio. The variables profit and dividend payout ratio has a positive correlation.

Denna studie visar utbetalningspolitiken hos företag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen år 2000-2015. Svensk utbetalningspolitik skiljer sig från utbetalningspolitiken i USA och inom EU. I Sverige fick återköp som utbetalningsform stor genomslagskraft år 2000 men trots detta är utdelningar fortsatt den dominerande utbetalningsformen idag. Vid en uppdelning i finansiella och industriella företag blir det tydligt att finansiella företag fått en allt mer betydelsefull roll inom svensk utbetalningspolitik. En ökad koncentration av det kassaflöde samtliga företag fördelar till aktieägare tycks inte kunna urskiljas på den svenska marknaden. Skiljer man på finansiella och industriella företag går det att se en ökad koncentration av det kassaflöde som fördelas av finansiella företag. År 2015 finns en stor andel mogna företag på Stockholmsbörsen vilket förklarar att total utbetalning av företag har ökat sedan 2000. Det framkommer genom att studera företagens kapitalstruktur och fas i den ekonomiska livscykeln. / This paper depicts payout policies of companies listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) 2000-2015. Payout policy in Sweden differs significantly from policy in the U.S. and the rest of the EU. In Sweden open market stock repurchases (OMR) came to be the dominant method of payout back in 2000. However, since then dividends have taken over the scene. Comparing financial and industrial corporations, makes it evident that financial corporations have come to gain prominence when it comes to shaping payout policy. It is not possible to entail an increasing concentration of cash flow that companies distribute to shareholders, when investigating the entire Swedish stock market. Dividing between the two sectors proves a heightened concentration of payouts among financial corporations. In 2015 mature companies have come to gain a greater share of SSE, which explains the increased number of dividend paying corporations since 2000. This becomes evident when examining the capital structure of the companies and their phase in the economic lifecycle.

本篇論文主要探討股利支付率與未來獲利能力成長的關聯性。過去相關文獻專注在股利變化率與未來盈餘成長的關係，股利支付率的文獻則較少。本研究以1991至2016年台灣上市、上櫃公司為樣本，利用固定效果模型來進行分析，實證結果發現股利支付率與未來獲利能力成長的關係呈顯著正相關。本研究根據文獻在迴歸模型中加入成長機會代理變數來檢驗股利支付率與未來獲利能力成長的正向關係是否能以自由現金流量假說解釋，實證結果與文獻一致，說明當成長機會愈低，台灣上市櫃公司之股利支付率與未來獲利能力成長之關聯性愈強，透過將剩餘的自由現金流量以股利發放的形式返還予股東，能減少公司之代理成本，市場上的投資機會未受到市場的競爭而使報酬率高於預期，因此出現公司股利支付率愈高，未來獲利能力成長愈高的現象。 / This study examines the relationship between dividend payout ratio and the growth of future profitability. Previous literatures mainly focused on the relationship between dividend change rate and future earnings growth instead of dividend payout ratio. The sample of this study includes companies listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange and the OTC market from 1991 to 2016. Results of the fixed effect model shows that there is a significantly positive relationship between dividend payout ratio and the growth of future profitability. Proxy variables for growth opportunities are used in the　fixed effect model to further verify whether the positive relationship can be explained by free cash flow theory. Our results support the explanation, indicating that the positive relationship between dividend payout ratio and the growth of future profitability is stronger when growth opportunities are low. Companies can reduce agency costs by paying out dividends to shareholders, and the returns of investment opportunities on the market are unaffected by competition force, which results in the counter-intuitive phenomenon of higher dividend payout ratio and subsequent growth of future profitability.

The goal of this diploma thesis is to analyze P/S ratio using Gordon dividend discount model and also to prove hypothesis that assumes existing influence of margin, dividend payout ratio, future dividend growth and discount rate on P/S ratio value. The goal is also to find other factors that can influence relative market stock valuation. Multidimensional regression analysis and also factor analysis were used in order to get a proper knowledge of the factors. There are 781 stocks used in this work. This thesis proves influence of the mentioned variables and also other variables were found that help achieve deeper understanding of examined variable. Market valuation is a very complex matter and is influenced by numerous factors.

Payout policies is one of the most discussed topics in corporate finance. Since Miller & Modigliani (1961) dividend irrelevance theory, which was based on perfect markets, many theories have been developed in order to incorporate market imperfections to payout decisions. Numerous scholars have been trying to explain why companies pay dividends, whether they should compensate investors with alternative methods such as share repurchases or not distribute cash at all. The theme has gained lots of attention during the 21-st century driven by the subprime financial crisis in 2008 and mostly recently, in 2020, due to economic impacts brought by the Covid 19 pandemic. Another important aspect that makes the study of payout policy relevant in the 21-st century is the unique impacts of unveiled trends such as globalization and volatile markets, increased importance of ecology and sustainability, emergency of fast growth firms (mainly in the Tech industry) and change characteristics of listed firms. Globally there is a tendency of reduction in the number of listed firms and also deterioration in the quality of earnings. Additionally, there is no consensus about which factors influence a firm propensity of distributing cash to shareholders, which makes the topic very intriguing. Previous research has been conducted mainly within US firms. Few studies have been conducted regarding payout policies in the Nordic countries and most of them give little attention to share repurchases and payout policy determinants. Therefore, we decided to conduct a study regarding the patterns and determinants of payout policy in the 21-st century with focus on the Nordic countries. The purposes of the study are: first, to understand the pattern of payout policies in the Nordic countries during the 21-st century and second determine if there is a relationship between a number of firm’s selected factors and firm’s payout policy. As a sub purpose we intend to examine whether the Covid 19 pandemic had any effect on Nordic firm’s payout policies. The factors investigated, namely: debt, profit, retained earnings, growth opportunities, cash holdings, size and age were identified through a detailed literature review. We collected data from Thomson Reuters DataStream Eikon covering the period between 2000 and 2020 for 1,153 firms from all Nordic countries: Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The study follows a quantitative research method with a deductive approach, and we have based the theoretical framework on the following theories: Miller-Modigliani dividend irrelevance theory, Signaling theory, Agency theory, Life-cycle theory and Substitution and Flexibility hypotheses. In order to determine whether there is a relationship between the companies selected factors and the payout ratios we conducted ordinary least square (OLS) correlation analysis. Additional regression analysis was conducted to verify possible impacts of Covid 19 on Nordic payout policies. Results indicate that some firms’ selected characteristics such as debt, size and age have an impact on Nordic firms’ payout policy during the 21-st century. Larger firms with lower debt are more willing to pay cash dividends, while older firms tend to present higher levels of share repurchase. Firms’ characteristics showed no impact on changes in payout ratios during the initial period of Covid 19.

Bhattacharyya（2007）建立一個連結企業管理階層薪酬與現金股利的模型。該模型指出在既定的可用現金下，企業管理階層薪酬與現金股利支付率呈負相關。本研究參考上述模型，以2005年至2008年國內上市櫃公司資料為樣本，使用Tobit模型檢視樣本公司高階經理人薪酬、董監事薪酬與現金股利支付率之關聯性。本研究實證結果符合上述模型之推論，亦即高階經理人總薪酬與公司之現金股利支付率呈顯著負相關。 　　本研究另將高階經理人薪酬區分為現金薪酬與股票薪酬，進行額外的分析，其結果顯示高階經理人之股票薪酬與公司現金股利支付率呈顯著負相關。換言之，台灣上市櫃公司（尤其高科技產業）常使用之股票薪酬合約，其性質具有長期激勵之效果。在公司既定的可用現金下，此種合約不但可激勵高品質的高階經理人選擇淨現值為正的投資方案，且可確保經理人不因短期投資方案而犧牲公司的長期利益。 / Bhattacharyya (2007) proposed a dividend payout model in which executive compensation is associated with the level of cash dividends. The model shows that for a given level of cash available for distribution, there is a negative　relationship between a company’s dividend payout ratio and its managerial compensation. This study applies the above model to a sample of the listed companies at the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) and the Gre Tai Securities Market (GTSM) from 2005 to 2008. The Tobit regression results are consistent with the Bhattacharyya (2007) model’s prediction, i.e., the dividend payout ratios of sample firms have negative associations with their managerial compensations. 　　In addition, this study classifies executive compensation into cash and stock payments for further analyses. The results show that dividend payout ratio is negatively correlated only with the stock portion of executive compensation. It means that for a given level of available cash for distribution, the nature of stock compensation has the long term effects which not only encourage a company’s executives to invest more in the projects with positive NPV without sacrificing the company’s benefits, bus also leave less cash for　distribution as dividends.

For many financial analysts the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility remains inconclusive. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for JSE-listed firms in South Africa differs from previous, similar research done on different markets. The research study answered the research question and determined what the relationship is between dividend policy and share price volatility for a representative sample of JSE-listed firms. In addition, it met the objective of finding and evaluating the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for a selection of JSElisted firms, under various economic conditions. The research study spanned a 12- year period with more than 1 065 observations noted. Quantitative, secondary data was collected and descriptive statistics were used during the analysis phase. Two standard multiple regression models were used to regress dividend policy and share price volatility, with the first regression model only providing a crude test between the variables. The second regression model accounted for factors that affect both variables and was included to provide a more accurate test estimation. The relationship between the dividend payout ratio and share price volatility and the relationship between dividend yield and share price volatility were evaluated and reported on, under various different economic conditions (pre, during and post the 2008 financial crisis). The study concluded that there is a negative correlation between a firm’s dividend policy and share price volatility. It further found that a firm’s dividend payout ratio, and not the dividend yield ratio, remains the single biggest contributor in explaining the variance in share price volatility throughout the different economic phases presented by pre, during and post the 2008 global financial crisis. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / M. Com. (Financial Management)