Millions of lives have been lost over the years as a result of the effects of earthquakes. One of these devastating effects is slope failure, more commonly known as landslide. Over the years, seismologists and engineers have teamed up to better record data during an earthquake. As technology has advanced, the data obtained have become more refined, allowing engineers to use the data in their efforts to estimate earthquakes where they have not yet occurred. Several methods have been proposed over time to utilize the earthquake data and estimate slope displacements. A pioneer in the development of methods to estimate slope displacements, Nathan Newmark, proposed what is now called the Newmark sliding block method. This method explained in very simple ways how a mass, in this case a rigid block, would slide over an incline given that the acceleration of the block surpassed the frictional resistance created between the bottom of the block and the surface of the incline. Because many of the assumptions from this method were criticized by scientists over time, modified Newmark sliding block methods were proposed. As the original and modified Newmark sliding block methods were introduced, the need to account for the uncertainty in the way soil would behave under earthquake loading became a big challenge. Deterministic and probabilistic methods have been used to incorporate parameters that would account for some of the uncertainty in the analysis. In an attempt to use a probabilistic approach in understanding how slopes might fail, the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center proposed a performance-based earthquake engineering framework that would allow decision-makers to use probabilistically generated information to make decisions based on acceptable risk. Previous researchers applied this framework to simplified Newmark sliding block models, but the approach is difficult for engineers to implement in practice because of the numerous probability calculations that are required. The work presented in this thesis provides a solution to the implementation of the performance-based approach by providing a simplified procedure for the performance-based determination of seismic slope displacements using the Rathje & Saygili (2009) and the Bray and Travasarou (2007) simplified Newmark sliding block models. This document also includes hazard parameter maps, which are an important part of the simplified procedure, for five states in the United States. A validation of the method is provided, as well as a comparison of the simplified method against other commonly used approaches such as deterministic and pseudo-probabilistic.

Liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacements cause severe damage to infrastructure, resulting in large economic losses in affected regions. Predicting lateral spread displacements is an important aspect in any seismic analysis and design, and many different methods have been developed to accurately estimate these displacements. However, the inherent uncertainty in predicting seismic events, including the extent of liquefaction and its effects, makes it difficult to accurately estimate lateral spread displacements. Current conventional methods of predicting lateral spread displacements do not completely account for uncertainty, unlike a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) approach that accounts for the all inherent uncertainty in seismic design. The PBEE approach incorporates complex probability theory throughout all aspects of estimating liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacements. A new fully-probabilistic PBEE method, based on results from the cone penetration test (CPT), was created for estimating lateral spread displacements using two different liquefaction triggering procedures. To accommodate the complexity of all probabilistic calculations, a new seismic hazard analysis tool, CPTLiquefY, was developed. Calculated lateral spread displacements using the new fully-probabilistic method were compared to estimated displacements using conventional methods. These comparisons were performed across 20 different CPT profiles and 10 cities of varying seismicity. The results of this comparison show that the conventional procedures of estimating lateral spread displacements are sufficient for areas of low seismicity and for lower return periods. However, by not accounting for all uncertainties, the conventional methods under-predict lateral spread displacements in areas of higher seismicity. This is cause for concern as it indicates that engineers in industry using the conventional methods are likely under-designing structures to resist lateral spread displacements for larger seismic events.

Liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacements cause severe damage to infrastructure, resulting in large economic losses in affected regions. Predicting lateral spread displacements is an important aspect in any seismic analysis and design, and many different methods have been developed to accurately estimate these displacements. However, the inherent uncertainty in predicting seismic events, including the extent of liquefaction and its effects, makes it difficult to accurately estimate lateral spread displacements. Current conventional methods of predicting lateral spread displacements do not completely account for uncertainty, unlike a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) approach that accounts for the all inherent uncertainty in seismic design. The PBEE approach incorporates complex probability theory throughout all aspects of estimating liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacements. A new fully-probabilistic PBEE method, based on results from the cone penetration test (CPT), was created for estimating lateral spread displacements using two different liquefaction triggering procedures. To accommodate the complexity of all probabilistic calculations, a new seismic hazard analysis tool, CPTLiquefY, was developed. Calculated lateral spread displacements using the new fully-probabilistic method were compared to estimated displacements using conventional methods. These comparisons were performed across 20 different CPT profiles and 10 cities of varying seismicity. The results of this comparison show that the conventional procedures of estimating lateral spread displacements are sufficient for areas of low seismicity and for lower return periods. However, by not accounting for all uncertainties, the conventional methods under-predict lateral spread displacements in areas of higher seismicity. This is cause for concern as it indicates that engineers in industry using the conventional methods are likely under-designing structures to resist lateral spread displacements for larger seismic events.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23490号 / 工博第4902号 / 新制||工||1766(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 五十嵐 晃, 教授 高橋 良和, 准教授 北根 安雄 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

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