La dynamique des populations vise à étudier les processus qui déterminent les fluctuations spatio-temporelles des effectifs d’organismes vivants. Ma thèse vise à caractériser les relations entre trois niveaux d’organisation des populations d’oiseaux coloniaux, l’individu, la colonie et la méta-colonie, et à étudier l’influence de l’environnement physique et social sur cette organisation. A cette fin, je me suis concentrée sur deux espèces de laridés coloniaux aux dynamiques de populations contrastées: la mouette rieuse, Chroicocephalus ridibundus, et le goéland railleur, Chroicocephalus genei. J’ai décrit, dans un premier temps, la dynamique spatio-temporelle des colonies de goélands railleurs en France, dont la répartition tend à s’étendre le long de la côte Méditerranéenne. Malgré cette expansion, les individus nés en France restent fidèles à leur région natale, mais leur âge et leur sexe modulent leur recrutement et leur comportement de dispersion. J’ai affiné ce premier travail en montrant que la condition corporelle des poussins, paramètre majeur du recrutement, est modulée par la taille des colonies, sa date d’installation et la stratégie d’alimentation des parents. Mes travaux ont de plus permis de montrer l’existence de groupes sociaux chez le goéland railleur, dont la stabilité est modulée par le succès de reproduction de la colonie. Ainsi, le degré de relations entre les individus d’une colonie est modulé par les caractéristiques intrinsèques de la colonie et son contexte environnemental. J’ai en particulier montré, chez la mouette rieuse, que la persistance des colonies dépend du succès de reproduction local, mais que la colonisation de nouveaux sites dépend plutôt du succès de reproduction dans les colonies avoisinantes. Mes travaux montrent ainsi que l’ensemble des niveaux d’organisation des populations d’oiseaux coloniaux, de l’individu à la méta-colonie, doivent être étudiés à travers de nouvelles approches intégratives qui représentent des challenges conceptuels, méthodologiques et techniques à l’interface entre dynamique des populations et étude des réseaux sociaux. / Population dynamics addresses the processes that underpin the spatio-temporal fluctuations of organism counts. My PhD dissertation aims at characterizing the connections between three organization levels in colonial bird populations, the individual, the colony, and the meta-colony, and at investigating the influence of the physical and social environments on this organization. To this aim, I focused on two colonial larid species that exhibit contrasted population dynamics: the black headed gull, Chroicocephalus ridibundus, and the slender-billed gull, Chroicocephalus genei. I first described the population dynamics of french slender-billed gull colonies, which are currently spreading along the Mediterranean coast. In spite of this expansion, individuals born in France return to their natal area to breed, but their age and sex modulate their recruitment and dispersal behaviours. I added-up to this first results by showing that nestling body condition, a major factor for recruitment, is affected by colony size, arrival date and parental foraging strategy. I further showed that slender-billed gulls gather into social groups whose stability is modulated by colony breeding success. The strength of inter-individual relationships within a colony is thus modulated by its intrinsic properties and its environmental context. Furthermore, I showed that, in black-headed gulls, colony persistance varies with local breeding success while colonization of new sites is mainly related to breeding success in neighbouring colonies. I conclude overall that the multiple organization levels of colonial bird populations, from the individual to the meta-colony, should be studied within integrative frameworks that represent novel conceptual, methodological and technical challenges at the crossroad between population dynamics and the study of social networks.

The monitoring and assessment of prawn populations in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, has been identified as a continuing research priority by both the fishing industry and the fisheries managers. This dissertation presents a series of dynamic population models developed to evaluate the status of the eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) and eastern school prawn (Metapenaeus macleayi) populations within NSW and to analyse the relative performance of a number of alternative management strategies involving the three fisheries that target these species. Monthly commercial prawn catch and effort data from 1984 to 2006 were used to calibrate the stock assessment models. Where possible, the results of previous research were used to develop the structure of the model and to provide estimates of biological parameters. A process of increasing model complexity, including the addition of physical processes, such as river discharge events and economic considerations, was undertaken in an attempt to develop the most appropriate model for the analysis of management strategies. The first model presented was used to undertake a single-species assessment of the eastern king prawn stock and was based on a delay-difference population model with four different representations of recruitment. This model was calibrated to observations using the Bayesian sampling/importance re-sampling method and used to test the effect of significant changes in the future catch on the stock. The second model presented is a size-based metapopulation model which incorporated the dynamics of school prawns over three habitats, being harvested by three different fishing methods. This model was used to test the effect of alternative climate variability scenarios on the stock. The third model presented is a multi-species, multi-fishery bio-economic model. This model was used to examine the impact of nine alternative economic scenarios, incorporating various combinations of input costs and product prices. The results from the use of these models indicated that neither of the prawn population appeared to be over-exploited. The analyses also indicated that none of the alternative management strategies were found to stand-out enough to justify a move away from the current management strategy of input controls and spatio-temporal closures, even under a range of future scenarios including climate change and large movements in input costs and product prices.

I studied aspects of the ecology of the Murray River turtle, Emydura macquarii, to determine the impact of the introduced red fox, Vulpes vulpes. The fox is one of Australia's worst vertebrate pests through its predation on livestock and native mammals, but their impact on reptilian communities is not known. I conducted a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate population growth of E. macquarii in the Albury region of the upper Murray River by determining growth, reproduction and survival. The study was conducted downstream of the first, and largest, impoundment on the Murray River, Lake Hume. Emydura macquarii predominantly inhabit the lagoons in the upper Murray River, as the mainstream and Lake are possibly too cool to maintain metabolic processes. They are easily captured in hoop traps and the use of live decoys maximises trap success. Over 2000 hatchling turtles were marked and released into two lagoons between January 1997 and January 1998. Growth of these individuals is rapid over the first few years but declines towards maturity, and is indeterminate after maturity. Although growth annuli are not well defined, even on young individuals, the von Bertalanffy model describes the growth of both male and female E. macquarii. Male turtles mature at 5-6 years and females mature at 10-12 years. Female turtles may maximise reproductive potential by delaying maturity and producing one relatively large clutch (mean = 21 eggs) per year, which is positively correlated with body size (PL). Although primarily related to body size, clutch size varies annually because of environmental conditions. If winter and summer rainfalls are below average and temperatures are above average, E. macquarii may reduce clutch size to increase the chance of the eggs surviving. Nesting predominantly occurs during the first major rain-bearing depression in November. Habitat variables, including distance from water, nearest nest, and tree, and soil type were measured for each nest to determine characteristics that attract predators. Nests close to the shoreline and trees are heavily preyed on, and nests constructed in sand are less likely to be destroyed by predators. Foxes detect nests through a combination of chemical cues from eggs and slight soil disturbances, whereas birds only destroy nests observed being constructed during the day. Female turtles alter nesting behaviour and construct nests much further away from water when foxes were removed and as a result, nests are less dense and away from trees. Thus in high predation risk areas, turtles minimise emergence and search times to reduce the risk of direct predation by foxes. Predation is reduced when nests are in lower densities and away from trees, because predators increase search efforts when nests are in higher densities and birds are more likely to destroy nests close to trees. Reproductive success is further reduced in high predation risk areas because more nests are constructed in sandy substrates where clutch success is reduced compared to incubation in more dense substrates. Where predators are a significant source of mortality, prey may use indirect methods, such as chemical recognition, to avoid encounters. Nesting turtles did not avoid areas where fox odour was present, suggesting that they assess predation pressure from foxes by other mechanisms, such as visual recognition. However, an innate response occurs to the odour of a once common predator on the Murray River, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus), whereby turtles recognise and avoid nesting in areas where quoll odour is present. Therefore nesting turtles show a similar avoidance response to two different predators, using different mechanisms of detection. Similarly, predation risk may influence hatching times and nest emergence. The rate of embryonic development of E. macquarii may increase or eggs may hatch early so that the clutch hatches synchronously, thereby reducing the risk of predation through group emergence from the nest. Emydura macquarii reach densities of over 100 turtles.ha-1, with the majority of the population consisting of sexually mature individuals. Emydura macquarii has a Type III survival curve where mortality is extremely high in the egg stage (93% nest predation), remaining high over the hatchling stage (minimum survival rate- 10%), but decreasing rapidly throughout the juvenile stage (~70% juvenile survival). Adult survival is extremely high, with greater than 95% of adults surviving each year. Foxes through nest predation cause most mortality but a small proportion (~3%) of nesting adult females are killed by foxes each year. A removal program evaluated the impact of foxes. In 1996, fox numbers were monitored around four lagoons by spotlighting and non-toxic bait uptake. Foxes were removed from around two of the lagoons throughout 1997 and 1998, using spotlight shooting and 1080 bait poisoning. Fox numbers were continually monitored around all four lagoons during the study. Nest predation rates remained around 90% in all sites where foxes were present, but fell to less than 50% when foxes were removed. At the same time, predation on nesting female turtles was eliminated where foxes were removed. Demographic models using staged based survival schedules, together with growth and fecundity values for E. macquarii show a decline of 4% per year in these populations. Elasticity analyses shows that survival of adult female E. macquarii has the major influence on population stability and a reduction of nest predation alone is unlikely to address the population decline. Management options, such as reducing foxes prior to nesting around key lagoons, will stabilise the population decline, and eliminating foxes completely from certain areas with high dispersal potential, will promote recruitment of juvenile E. macquarii.

<p>This thesis deals with the dynamics of tundra living voles with emphasis on the most common one, the grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus). The tundra area chosen for the study was Finnmarksvidda, a vast flatland in northernmost Norway. All small mammal herbivores in the area showed dramatic fluctuations, and field experiment were conducted in order to elucidate these density fluctuations. The specific subjects addressed included: 1/ Temporal and spatial appearance of density fluctuations of voles and lemmings in the area, 2/ The generality of the density patterns observed, 3/ The impact of predation by vole predators during summertime, 4/ The impact of grey-sided vole grazing on food plants of different preference in a predator free environment, in the presence and absence of extra food, and 5/ The impact of food availability on density and demography of grey-sided voles in a predator free environment.</p><p>The results achieved showed that voles in the slope and lowland had cyclic density fluctuations with 5 years duration. The cycles consisted of four phases: an increase phase, a peak phase, a decline phase and a crash phase. In the unproductive lowland and on the moderately productive slope, small pockets of productive habitats seemed to work as “triggers” for the cycles. The lemming fluctuations in the upper plateau (separated from the slope by a steep zone of boulders) differed markedly from the vole patterns in the lowland.</p><p>Only two lemming peaks were recorded in twenty years. Both peaks had very short increase phases, a knife-sharppeak phase and no decline phase before the crash. A comparison between our results and lemming and vole populations from two other areas in Fennoscandia revealed the same difference in fluctuation pattern between lemmings and voles as seen in our area. This results suggests that lemmings in barren tundra highlands and voles in slightly more productive tundra lowlands are regulated by different mechanisms.</p><p>The exclusion of vole predators from vole populations during summertime led to increase in overall vole density. Densities of the clumsy field vole (Microtus agrestis) and juveniles of all species showed the strongest positive effects of the exclusion.</p><p>An experiment analysing the effects of food availability was conducted in islands in a large lake where grey-sided voles were introduced to predator free islands . Supplemental food was given to the voles in two unproductive, and two productive islands. Two unproductive and two productive islands were used as reference islands. The density of voles and the vole weight were higher in both the islands with supplemental food and those with high natural productivity. Increased vole density did not significantly increase grazing damage to plants. The cyclic density pattern of the voles in the nearby mainland (that harboured resident vole specialist predators as stoat and weasel) showed little resemblance to the seasonal fluctuations found in the islands (devoid of resident vole specialist predators). This result suggested that predation by stoat and weasel on grey-sided vole populations may cause the cyclic vole fluctuations seen in the area.</p>

Conservation biologists have used reintroduction as a method to reestablish extirpated species in their native habitat. Three important aspects of a successful reintroduction effort include: (1) a habitat suitability study of the reintroduction area, including effects of migration corridors; (2) identification of possible predators of the reintroduced species; and (3) a post-reintroduction assessment including an evaluation of the species' population dynamics. In this study I examine the suitability of Guadalupe Mountains National Park (GUMO) as a reintroduction area for desert bighorn sheep. The study used landscape metrics to compare GUMO to a nearby mountain range that is currently supporting an estimated population of 400 bighorn sheep. This study identified migration corridors for bighorns throughout the region and evaluated mountain lion (a potential predator of bighorn sheep) numbers either residing in or passing through the park between the years 1997 to 2004. Results on the studies in GUMO revealed 15,884 ha of suitable habitat for bighorn sheep and provided evidence of migration routes between GUMO and neighboring mountain ranges. In terms of potential predators, a minimum of 32 resident and/or transient mountain lions occurred in GUMO over a seven year period, and a minimum of 15 cats used the park in 2002. Based on estimates of individual home range of males and females, GUMO should be able to support four to five individuals. The genetic data indicates a high number of transients or perhaps an unstable population of mountain lions that may be the result of intense hunting pressure of cats in Texas. Finally, my study simulates parameters of the population dynamics of a different species, the Arabian oryx that was reintroduced as three separate populations to the Israeli Negev between 1998 and 2005. I simulated population growth and the effect of migration corridors on species persistence. Results suggest that migration corridors are essential for a self-sustaining viable metapopulation under current natality rates. In the event that natality rates increase (as was evident in a reintroduced population of Arabian oryx in Oman), metapopulation can reach viable size with only two of the release sites (open, flat terrain) connected by migration corridors.

This thesis deals with the dynamics of tundra living voles with emphasis on the most common one, the grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus). The tundra area chosen for the study was Finnmarksvidda, a vast flatland in northernmost Norway. All small mammal herbivores in the area showed dramatic fluctuations, and field experiment were conducted in order to elucidate these density fluctuations. The specific subjects addressed included: 1/ Temporal and spatial appearance of density fluctuations of voles and lemmings in the area, 2/ The generality of the density patterns observed, 3/ The impact of predation by vole predators during summertime, 4/ The impact of grey-sided vole grazing on food plants of different preference in a predator free environment, in the presence and absence of extra food, and 5/ The impact of food availability on density and demography of grey-sided voles in a predator free environment. The results achieved showed that voles in the slope and lowland had cyclic density fluctuations with 5 years duration. The cycles consisted of four phases: an increase phase, a peak phase, a decline phase and a crash phase. In the unproductive lowland and on the moderately productive slope, small pockets of productive habitats seemed to work as “triggers” for the cycles. The lemming fluctuations in the upper plateau (separated from the slope by a steep zone of boulders) differed markedly from the vole patterns in the lowland. Only two lemming peaks were recorded in twenty years. Both peaks had very short increase phases, a knife-sharppeak phase and no decline phase before the crash. A comparison between our results and lemming and vole populations from two other areas in Fennoscandia revealed the same difference in fluctuation pattern between lemmings and voles as seen in our area. This results suggests that lemmings in barren tundra highlands and voles in slightly more productive tundra lowlands are regulated by different mechanisms. The exclusion of vole predators from vole populations during summertime led to increase in overall vole density. Densities of the clumsy field vole (Microtus agrestis) and juveniles of all species showed the strongest positive effects of the exclusion. An experiment analysing the effects of food availability was conducted in islands in a large lake where grey-sided voles were introduced to predator free islands . Supplemental food was given to the voles in two unproductive, and two productive islands. Two unproductive and two productive islands were used as reference islands. The density of voles and the vole weight were higher in both the islands with supplemental food and those with high natural productivity. Increased vole density did not significantly increase grazing damage to plants. The cyclic density pattern of the voles in the nearby mainland (that harboured resident vole specialist predators as stoat and weasel) showed little resemblance to the seasonal fluctuations found in the islands (devoid of resident vole specialist predators). This result suggested that predation by stoat and weasel on grey-sided vole populations may cause the cyclic vole fluctuations seen in the area.

In this thesis, molecular genetic methods were used to study a threatened species, the Eurasian otter. Estimates of population size and population dynamics parameters were obtained, the genetic effects of a restocking program was evaluated, and a population viability analysis was conducted to assess which demographic parameters are most important for the future viability of an otter population. Many of the studies were based on noninvasive genetic sampling of faeces. In the genetic evaluation of the restocking program, it was found that the released otters had contributed to subsequent generations. However, the effects were to a large degree limited to the near surroundings of the release areas. Comparison of two census methods, snow-tracking and noninvasive genetic census based on faeces, showed that approximately only half of the otters detected with the genetic census were found with the snow-tracking census. It is recommended to combine these two methods to obtain the most reliable estimates of population size. A short-term study on population dynamics in otters showed that apparent survival was higher in females than in males and that the rate of addition was also high and likely influenced by migration. The population viability analysis incorporated both genetics and demography and revealed that survival to first reproduction was the most crucial demographic parameter affecting the viability of the study population. This result suggests that conservation efforts should be focused on protocols that enhance the survival prospects of young females. Environmental stochasticity was also found to have large effects on the probability of extinction of this population.

Early in the 20th century wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) in North America were on the brink of extinction. Conservation and reintroduction efforts ensured that this species recovered throughout most of its historic range. Efforts to reintroduce eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo sylvestris) to the Pineywoods of east Texas have achieved limited success. Previous research suggested that predation may have confounded this reintroduction. My aim was to quantify the influence of mesopredators on the wild turkey population in the Pineywoods. Raccoons (Procyon lotor), bobcats (Lynx rufus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) occur sympatrically in east Texas and are thought to prey on wild turkeys, their nests and poults. I fitted bobcats, coyotes and raccoons with both GPS and VHF collars and used location data and GIS applications to estimate home ranges, home range overlap and habitat selection for these mesopredators. I used scat analysis to determine diet of mesopredators and to establish whether they preyed on wild turkeys. I used capture mark recapture (CMR) techniques to investigate small mammal population dynamics at annual and seasonal bases. I used spotlight counts and track plates to assess seasonal relative abundance of eastern cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus floridana). I used artificial nests to identify likely nest predators of wild turkey nests. I found that mesopredators in the Pineywoods had larger home ranges than elsewhere in the Southeast. Bobcat and coyote home ranges varied seasonally, being largest in fall. Raccoon home ranges did not vary seasonally. Bobcats and coyotes shared space more than did raccoons with bobcats or coyotes. There was differential habitat selection between species, but mature pine and young pine were important to the mesopredators and as nesting habitat for eastern wild turkeys. I found no evidence of wild turkey remains in scat samples. White tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), lagomorphs and small mammals occurred in the diets of all three mesopredators. Small mammal numbers varied seasonally, declining from spring to summer, in synchrony with mesopredator diet diversification, and wild turkey nesting and brood rearing. Lagomorph abundance did not vary seasonally. Bobcats were predominantly carnivorous while coyotes and raccoons were omnivorous, consuming seasonal fruit and insects. American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) and raccoons were the primary artificial nest predators. Crows depredated most artificial nests, except in summer, when raccoons depredated the most nests. I concluded that the impact of mesopredators on wild turkeys was not as severe as suggested by previous research. I suggest a combination of video monitoring live wild turkey nests to identify nest predators, improvement of nesting habitat to reduce mesopredator / wild turkey nest encounters, and a program of conditioned taste aversion to reduce any nest predation by mesopredators and crows.

Conservation biologists have used reintroduction as a method to reestablish extirpated species in their native habitat. Three important aspects of a successful reintroduction effort include: (1) a habitat suitability study of the reintroduction area, including effects of migration corridors; (2) identification of possible predators of the reintroduced species; and (3) a post-reintroduction assessment including an evaluation of the species' population dynamics. In this study I examine the suitability of Guadalupe Mountains National Park (GUMO) as a reintroduction area for desert bighorn sheep. The study used landscape metrics to compare GUMO to a nearby mountain range that is currently supporting an estimated population of 400 bighorn sheep. This study identified migration corridors for bighorns throughout the region and evaluated mountain lion (a potential predator of bighorn sheep) numbers either residing in or passing through the park between the years 1997 to 2004. Results on the studies in GUMO revealed 15,884 ha of suitable habitat for bighorn sheep and provided evidence of migration routes between GUMO and neighboring mountain ranges. In terms of potential predators, a minimum of 32 resident and/or transient mountain lions occurred in GUMO over a seven year period, and a minimum of 15 cats used the park in 2002. Based on estimates of individual home range of males and females, GUMO should be able to support four to five individuals. The genetic data indicates a high number of transients or perhaps an unstable population of mountain lions that may be the result of intense hunting pressure of cats in Texas. Finally, my study simulates parameters of the population dynamics of a different species, the Arabian oryx that was reintroduced as three separate populations to the Israeli Negev between 1998 and 2005. I simulated population growth and the effect of migration corridors on species persistence. Results suggest that migration corridors are essential for a self-sustaining viable metapopulation under current natality rates. In the event that natality rates increase (as was evident in a reintroduced population of Arabian oryx in Oman), metapopulation can reach viable size with only two of the release sites (open, flat terrain) connected by migration corridors.

In this thesis, both theoretical and application oriented results are obtained for differential equations with discontinuities of different types: impulsive differential equations, differential equations with piecewise constant argument of generalized type and differential equations with discontinuous right-hand sides. Several qualitative problems such as stability, Hopf bifurcation, center manifold reduction, permanence and persistence are addressed for these equations and also for Lotka-Volterra predator-prey models with variable time of impulses, ratio-dependent predator-prey systems and logistic equation with piecewise constant argument of generalized type. For the first time, by means of Lyapunov functions coupled with the Razumikhin method, sufficient conditions are established for stability of the trivial solution of differential equations with piecewise constant argument of generalized type. Appropriate examples are worked out to illustrate the applicability of the method. Moreover, stability analysis is performed for the logistic equation, which is one of the most widely used population dynamics models. The behaviour of solutions for a 2-dimensional system of differential equations with discontinuous right-hand side, also called a Filippov system, is studied. Discontinuity sets intersect at a vertex, and are of the quasilinear nature. Through the B&amp / #8722 / equivalence of that system to an impulsive differential equation, Hopf bifurcation is investigated. Finally, the obtained results are extended to a 3-dimensional discontinuous system of Filippov type. After the existence of a center manifold is proved for the 3-dimensional system, a theorem on the bifurcation of periodic solutions is provided in the critical case. Illustrative examples and numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.