Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have seen widespread use in a variety of applications ranging from speech recognition to gene prediction. While developed over forty years ago, they remain a standard tool for sequential data analysis. More recently, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was developed and soon gained widespread popularity as a powerful topic analysis tool for text corpora. We thoroughly develop LDA and a generalization of HMMs and demonstrate the conjunctive use of both methods in predictive data analysis for health care problems. While these two tools (LDA and HMM) have been used in conjunction previously, we use LDA in a new way to reduce the dimensionality involved in the training of HMMs. With both LDA and our extension of HMM, we train classifiers to predict development of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in the near future.

Background: In every organization, employees are an essential resource. For several reasons, employees are neglected by the organizations, which leads to employee turnover. Employee turnover causes considerable losses to the organization. Using machine learning algorithms and with the data in hand, a prediction of an employee’s future in an organization is made. Objectives: The aim of this thesis is to conduct a comparison study utilizing supervised machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and XGBoost to predict an employee’s future in a company. Using evaluation metrics models are assessed in order to discover the best efficient model for the data in hand. Methods: The quantitative research approach is used in this thesis, and data is analyzed using statistical analysis. The labeled data set comes from Kaggle and includes information on employees at a company. The data set is used to train algorithms. The created models will be evaluated on the test set using evaluation measures including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 Score, and ROC curve to determine which model performs the best at predicting employee turnover. Results: Among the studied features in the data set, there is no feature that has a significant impact on turnover. Upon analyzing the results, the XGBoost classifier has better mean accuracy with 85.3%, followed by the Random Forest classifier with 83% accuracy than the other two algorithms. XGBoost classifier has better precision with 0.88, followed by Random Forest Classifier with 0.82. Both the Random Forest classifier and XGBoost classifier showed a 0.69 Recall score. XGBoost classifier had the highest F1 Score with 0.77, followed by the Random Forest classifier with 0.75. In the ROC curve, the XGBoost classifier had a higher area under the curve(AUC) with 0.88. Conclusions: Among the studied four machine learning algorithms, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and XGBoost, the XGBoost classifier is the most optimal with a good performance score respective to the tested performance metrics. No feature is found majorly affect employee turnover.

Evaluation of the road's condition and state is essential for its upkeep, especially when discussing gravel roads, for the following reasons, among other. When loose gravel is not adequately maintained, it can pose a hazard to drivers, who can lose control of their vehicle and cause accidents. Current maintenance procedures are either laborious or time-consuming. Road agencies and institutions are on the lookout for more effective techniques. This study seeks to establish an automatic method for estimating loose gravel using acoustic observation. On gravelroads, recordings from a car's interior were evaluated and matched to the road's state. The first strategy examined road sections with a four-tier (multiclass) manual classification, based on their perceived condition of loose gravel, in accordance with the Swedish road administration authority’s guidelines. The second, examined two tier (binary) manual classification, distinguishing between roads with low and high maintenance needs. Sound features were extracted and processed for subsequentanalysis. Several supervised machine learning methods and algorithms, combined with selected data preprocessing strategies, were deployed. The performance of each strategy and model is determined by assessing and evaluating their classification accuracy along with other performance metrics. The SVM classifier had the best performance in classifying both multiclass as well as binary gravel road conditions. SVM achieved an accuracy of 57.8% when classifying on a four-tier scale and an accuracy of 82% when classifying on a two-tier scale. These results indicate some merits of using audio features as predictive features in the automatic classification of loose gravel conditions on gravel roads.

The Swedish real estate market has been digitalized over the past decade with the current practice being to post your real estate advertisement online. A question that has arisen is how a seller can optimize their public listing to maximize the selling premium. This paper analyzes the use of three machine learning methods to solve this problem: Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regressor and Random Forest Regressor. The aim is to retrieve information regarding how certain attributes contribute to the premium value. The dataset used contains apartments sold within the years of 2014-2018 in the Östermalm / Djurgården district in Stockholm, Sweden. The resulting models returned an R2-value of approx. 0.26 and Mean Absolute Error of approx. 0.06. While the models were not accurate regarding prediction of premium, information was still able to be extracted from the models. In conclusion, a high amount of views and a publication made in April provide the best conditions for an advertisement to reach a high selling premium. The seller should try to keep the amount of days since publication lower than 15.5 days and avoid publishing on a Tuesday. / Den svenska bostadsmarknaden har blivit alltmer digitaliserad under det senaste årtiondet med nuvarande praxis att säljaren publicerar sin bostadsannons online. En fråga som uppstår är hur en säljare kan optimera sin annons för att maximera budpremie. Denna studie analyserar tre maskininlärningsmetoder för att lösa detta problem: Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regressor och Random Forest Regressor. Syftet är att utvinna information om de signifikanta attribut som påverkar budpremien. Det dataset som använts innehåller lägenheter som såldes under åren 2014-2018 i Stockholmsområdet Östermalm / Djurgården. Modellerna som togs fram uppnådde ett R²-värde på approximativt 0.26 och Mean Absolute Error på approximativt 0.06. Signifikant information kunde extraheras from modellerna trots att de inte var exakta i att förutspå budpremien. Sammanfattningsvis skapar ett stort antal visningar och en publicering i april de bästa förutsättningarna för att uppnå en hög budpremie. Säljaren ska försöka hålla antal dagar sedan publicering under 15.5 dagar och undvika att publicera på tisdagar.

Road traffic control has been around for a long time to guarantee the safety of vehicles and pedestrians. However, anomalies such as accidents or natural disasters cannot be avoided. Therefore, it is important to be prepared as soon as possible to prevent a higher number of human losses. Nevertheless, there is no system accurate enough that detects and classifies anomalies from the road traffic in real time. To solve this issue, the following study proposes the training of a machine learning model for detection and classification of anomalies on the highways of Stockholm. Due to the lack of a labeled dataset, the first phase of the work is to detect the different kind of outliers that can be found and manually label them based on the results of a data exploration study. Datasets containing information regarding accidents and weather are also included to further expand the amount of anomalies. All experiments use real world datasets coming from either the sensors located on the highways of Stockholm or from official accident and weather reports. Then, three models (Decision Trees, Random Forest and Logistic Regression) are trained to detect and classify the outliers. The design of an Apache Spark streaming application that uses the model with the best results is also provided. The outcomes indicate that Logistic Regression is better than the rest but still suffers from the imbalanced nature of the dataset. In the future, this project can be used to not only contribute to future research on similar topics but also to monitor the highways of Stockholm. / Vägtrafikkontroll har funnits länge för att garantera säkerheten hos fordon och fotgängare. Emellertid kan avvikelser som olyckor eller naturkatastrofer inte undvikas. Därför är det viktigt att förberedas så snart som möjligt för att förhindra ett större antal mänskliga förluster. Ändå finns det inget system som är noggrannt som upptäcker och klassificerar avvikelser från vägtrafiken i realtid. För att lösa detta problem föreslår följande studie utbildningen av en maskininlärningsmodell för detektering och klassificering av anomalier på Stockholms vägar. På grund av bristen på en märkt dataset är den första fasen av arbetet att upptäcka olika slags avvikare som kan hittas och manuellt märka dem utifrån resultaten av en datautforskningsstudie. Dataset som innehåller information om olyckor och väder ingår också för att ytterligare öka antalet anomalier. Alla experiment använder realtidsdataset från antingen sensorerna på Stockholms vägar eller från officiella olyckor och väderrapporter. Därefter utbildas tre modeller (beslutsträd, slumpmässig skog och logistisk regression) för att upptäcka och klassificera outliersna. Utformningen av en Apache Spark streaming-applikation som använder modellen med de bästa resultaten ges också. Resultaten tyder på att logistisk regression är bättre än resten men fortfarande lider av datasetets obalanserade natur. I framtiden kan detta projekt användas för att inte bara bidra till framtida forskning kring liknande ämnen utan även att övervaka Stockholms vägar.

Sport clubs are always searching for innovative ways to improve performance and obtain a competitive edge. Sports analytics today is focused primarily on evaluating metrics thought to be directly tied to performance. Injuries indirectly decrease performance and cost substantially in terms of wasted salaries. Existing sports injury research mainly focuses on correlating one specific feature at a time to the risk of injury. This paper provides a multidimensional approach to non-contact injury prediction in Swedish professional ice hockey by applying machine learning on historical data. Several features are correlated simultaneously to injury probability. The project’s aim is to create an injury predicting algorithm which ranks the different features based on how they affect the risk of injury. The paper also discusses the business potential and strategy of a start-up aiming to provide a solution for predicting injury risk through statistical analysis. / Idrottsklubbar letar ständigt efter innovativa sätt att förbättra prestation och erhålla konkurrensfördelar. Idag fokuserar data- analys inom idrott främst på att utvärdera mätvärden som tros vara direkt korrelerade med prestation. Skador sänker indirekt prestationen och kostar markant i bortslösade spelarlöner. Tidigare studier på skador inom idrotten fokuserar huvudsakligen på att korrelera ett mätvärde till en skada i taget. Den här rapporten ger ett multidimensionellt angreppssätt till att förutse skador inom svensk elitishockey genom att applicera maskininlärning på historisk data. Flera attribut korreleras samtidigt för att få fram en skadesannolikhet. Målet med den här rapporten är att skapa en algoritm för att förutse skador och även ranka olika attribut baserat på hur de påverkar skaderisken. I rapporten diskuteras även affärsmöjligheterna för en sådan lösning och hur en potentiell start-up ska positionera sig på marknaden.

This method demonstrates an approach to determine the best grasping location on an unknown object using Weighted Random Forest Algorithm. It used RGB-D value of an object as input to find a suitable rectangular grasping region as the output. To accomplish this task, it uses a subspace of most important features from a very high dimensional extensive feature space that contains both image and point cloud features. Usage of most important features in the grasping algorithm has enabled the system to be computationally very fast while preserving maximum information gain. In this approach, the Random Forest operates using optimum parameters e.g. Number of Trees, Number of Features at each node, Information Gain Criteria etc. ensures optimization in learning, with highest possible accuracy in minimum time in an advanced practical setting. The Weighted Random Forest chosen over Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree and Adaboost for implementation of the grasping system outperforms the stated machine learning algorithms both in training and testing accuracy and other performance estimates. The Grasping System utilizing learning from a score function detects the rectangular grasping region after selecting the top rectangle that has the largest score. The system is implemented and tested in a Baxter Research Robot with Parallel Plate Gripper in action.

Background: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmen-tal disorder that affects social communication, behavior, and cognitive development.Patients with autism have a variety of difficulties, such as sensory impairments, at-tention issues, learning disabilities, mental health issues like anxiety and depression,as well as motor and learning issues. The World Health Organization (WHO) es-timates that one in 100 children have ASD. Although ASD cannot be completelytreated, early identification of its symptoms might lessen its impact. Early identifi-cation of ASD can significantly improve the outcome of interventions and therapies.So, it is important to identify the disorder early. Machine learning algorithms canhelp in predicting ASD. In this thesis, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and RandomForest (RF) are the algorithms used to predict ASD. Objectives: The main objective of this thesis is to build and train the models usingmachine learning(ML) algorithms with the default parameters and with the hyper-parameter tuning and find out the most accurate model based on the comparison oftwo experiments to predict whether a person is suffering from ASD or not. Methods: Experimentation is the method chosen to answer the research questions.Experimentation helped in finding out the most accurate model to predict ASD. Ex-perimentation is followed by data preparation with splitting of data and by applyingfeature selection to the dataset. After the experimentation followed by two exper-iments, the models were trained to find the performance metrics with the defaultparameters, and the models were trained to find the performance with the hyper-parameter tuning. Based on the comparison, the most accurate model was appliedto predict ASD. Results: In this thesis, we have chosen two algorithms SVM and RF algorithms totrain the models. Upon experimentation and training of the models using algorithmswith hyperparameter tuning. SVM obtained the highest accuracy score and f1 scoresfor test data are 96% and 97% compared to other model RF which helps in predictingASD. Conclusions: The models were trained using two ML algorithms SVM and RF andconducted two experiments, in experiment-1 the models were trained using defaultparameters and obtained accuracy, f1 scores for the test data, and in experiment-2the models were trained using hyper-parameter tuning and obtained the performancemetrics such as accuracy and f1 score for the test data. By comparing the perfor-mance metrics, we came to the conclusion that SVM is the most accurate algorithmfor predicting ASD.

Tesis por compendio / [ES] La contaminación del agua representa un desafío ambiental crítico a nivel global y en la Unión Europea (UE), particularmente en la región mediterránea de España. El crecimiento poblacional, la demanda creciente de alimentos y combustibles, junto con el cambio climático, intensifican la contaminación por nutrientes en los cuerpos de agua. Esta contaminación amenaza la calidad del agua y los ecosistemas acuáticos, así como la salud humana. La complejidad de las vías de transporte de nutrientes hace que su monitoreo y mitigación sean complicados. Se requieren modelos integrales que vinculen procesos y relaciones de causa y efecto para controlar eficazmente la contaminación. En la región mediterránea, como la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Júcar (DHJ), la interacción entre agua superficial y subterránea es clave, pero los modelos tradicionales presentan limitaciones. Esta tesis aborda estos desafíos al caracterizar la contribución de nutrientes a las masas de agua superficiales de la DHJ, evaluar medidas de reducción de la contaminación, considerando el cambio climático a largo plazo y aplicar técnicas de aprendizaje supervisado para predecir la concentración de nitratos. El acoplamiento de modelos hidrológicos y de calidad del agua, junto con el aprendizaje automático, ofrece una comprensión profunda y valiosa de los factores detrás de la contaminación por nutrientes y proporciona una base sólida para la toma de decisiones y la gestión sostenible del agua en la DHJ y regiones similares. Esta tesis fue estructurada como un compendio de tres artículos que abarcan estos desafíos. El primer artículo profundiza en la compleja interacción entre las aguas superficiales y las subterráneas en las cuencas de la DHJ, centrándose en la dinámica de la contaminación por nitratos. Los resultados muestran una correlación directa entre las concentraciones de nitratos en ríos y acuíferos a lo largo del eje principal de los ríos Júcar y Turia, lo cual destaca el papel fundamental de las aportaciones de agua subterránea en la contribución a los niveles de nitratos de los ríos. Además, el estudio identifica regiones aguas abajo con actividades agrícolas y urbanas intensificadas como focos de contaminación por nitratos. El segundo artículo aborda la vulnerabilidad de la calidad de las aguas superficiales al cambio climático y escenarios de reducción de la contaminación difusa y puntual en las cuencas de la DHJ a largo plazo. Los resultados indican que, en los escenarios de cambio climático, se espera que aumenten significativamente las masas de agua con un mal estado de amonio, fósforo y DBO5, y en menor proporción las masas en mal estado de nitratos. En concreto, las concentraciones medias de amonio y fósforo podrían duplicarse durante los meses de bajo caudal. Para mantener la calidad actual del agua, se requieren reducciones sustanciales de al menos el 25% de la contaminación difusa por nitratos y del 50% de las cargas puntuales de amonio, fósforo y DBO5. El tercer artículo presenta un enfoque innovador para simular la concentración de nitratos en masas de agua superficiales mediante modelos de aprendizaje automático. Aprovechando los métodos de selección de características y los algoritmos random forest (RF) y eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), el estudio logró una gran precisión en la predicción de la concentración de nitratos. Estos modelos analizaron 19 variables de entrada, que abarcan factores ecológicos, hidrológicos y ambientales, junto con datos de concentración de nitratos procedentes de estaciones de aforo de la calidad de las aguas superficiales. En particular, la investigación destaco que la localización desempeña un papel dominante, explicando el 87% de la variabilidad de los nitratos en relación con la concentración de nitrógeno y fósforo. Esta investigación destaco el potencial del aprendizaje automático en la predicción de la calidad del agua y la evaluación de riesgos. / [CA] La contaminació de l'aigua representa un desafiament ambiental crític a nivell global i a la Unió Europea (UE), particularment a la regió mediterrània d'Espanya. El creixement poblacional, la demanda creixent d'aliments i combustibles, juntament amb el canvi climàtic, intensifiquen la contaminació per nutrients en els cossos d'aigua. Aquesta contaminació amenaça la qualitat de l'aigua i els ecosistemes aquàtics, així com la salut humana. La complexitat de les vies de transport de nutrients fa que el seu monitoratge i mitigació siguin complicats. Es requereixen models integrals que vinculin processos i relacions de causa i efecte per a controlar eficaçment la contaminació. A la regió mediterrània, com la Demarcació Hidrogràfica del Xúquer (DHJ), la interacció entre aigua superficial i subterrània és clau, però els models tradicionals presenten limitacions. Aquesta tesi aborda aquests desafiaments en caracteritzar la contribució de nutrients a les masses d'aigua superficials de la DHJ, avaluar mesures de reducció de la contaminació, considerant el canvi climàtic a llarg termini i aplicar tècniques d'aprenentatge supervisat per a predir la concentració de nitrats. L'acoblament de models hidrològics i de qualitat de l'aigua, juntament amb l'aprenentatge automàtic, ofereix una comprensió profunda i valuosa dels factors darrere de la contaminació per nutrients i proporciona una base sòlida per a la presa de decisions i la gestió sostenible de l'aigua en la DHJ i regions similars. Aquesta tesi va ser estructurada com un compendi de tres articles que abasten aquests desafiaments. El primer article aprofundeix en la complexa interacció entre les aigües superficials i les subterrànies en les conques de la DHJ, centrant-se en la dinàmica de la contaminació per nitrats. Els resultats mostren una correlació directa entre les concentracions de nitrats en rius i aqüífers al llarg de l'eix principal dels rius Xúquer i Túria, la qual cosa destaca el paper fonamental de les aportacions d'aigua subterrània en la contribució als nivells de nitrats dels rius. A més, l'estudi identifica regions aigües avall amb activitats agrícoles i urbanes intensificades com a focus de contaminació per nitrats. El segon article aborda la vulnerabilitat de la qualitat de les aigües superficials al canvi climàtic i escenaris de reducció de la contaminació difusa i puntual en les conques de la DHJ a llarg termini. Els resultats indiquen que, en els escenaris de canvi climàtic, s'espera que augmentin significativament les masses d'aigua amb un mal estat d'amoni, fòsfor i DBO5, i en menor proporció les masses en mal estat de nitrats. En concret, les concentracions mitjanes d'amoni i fòsfor podrien duplicar-se durant els mesos de baix cabal. Per a mantenir la qualitat actual de l'aigua, es requereixen reduccions substancials d'almenys el 25% de la contaminació difusa per nitrats i del 50% de les càrregues puntuals d'amoni, fòsfor i DBO5. El tercer article presenta un enfocament innovador per a simular la concentració de nitrats en masses d'aigua superficials mitjançant models d'aprenentatge automàtic. Aprofitant els mètodes de selecció de característiques i els algorismes random forest (RF) i extremi Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), l'estudi va aconseguir una gran precisió en la predicció de la concentració de nitrats. Aquests models van analitzar 19 variables d'entrada, que abasten factors ecològics, hidrològics i ambientals, juntament amb dades de concentració de nitrats procedents d'estacions d'aforament de la qualitat de les aigües superficials. En particular, la recerca destaco que la localització exerceix un paper dominant, explicant el 87% de la variabilitat dels nitrats en relació amb la concentració de nitrogen i fòsfor. Aquesta recerca destaco el potencial de l'aprenentatge automàtic en la predicció de la qualitat de l'aigua i l'avaluació de riscos. / [EN] Water pollution poses a critical environmental challenge globally and in the European Union (EU), particularly in the Mediterranean region of Spain. Population growth, increasing demand for food and fuels, coupled with climate change, intensify nutrient pollution in water bodies. This pollution threatens water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and human health. The complexity of nutrient transport pathways makes monitoring and mitigation challenging. Comprehensive models that link processes and cause-and-effect relationships are required to effectively control pollution. In the Mediterranean region, such as the Júcar River Basin District (RBD), the interaction between surface and groundwater is crucial, but traditional models have limitations. This thesis addresses these challenges by characterising the contribution of nutrients to surface waters in the Júcar RBD, evaluating pollution reduction measures considering long-term climate change, and applying supervised learning techniques to predict nitrate concentrations. The coupling of hydrological and water quality models, along with machine learning, provides a deep and valuable understanding of the factors behind nutrient pollution and establishes a solid foundation for decision-making and sustainable water management in the Júcar RBD and similar regions. This thesis is structured as a compendium of three articles that encompass these challenges. The first article delves into the complex interaction between surface and groundwater in the Júcar RBD basins, focusing on nitrate pollution dynamics.The results reveal a direct linear correlation between nitrate concentrations in rivers and aquifers along the main axes of the Júcar and Turia rivers, highlighting the fundamental role of groundwater contributions to river nitrate levels. Additionally, the study identifies downstream regions with intensified agricultural and urban activities as nitrate pollution hotspots. This research not only identifies pollution sources but also offers a means to predict nitrate concentrations and assess the effectiveness of pollution prevention measures. The second article addresses the vulnerability of surface water quality to climate change and long-term diffuse and point source pollution reduction scenarios in the Júcar RBD basins. In a region where nutrient concentrations are of particular concern, the study investigates how changing climatic conditions, including rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, affect nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) levels. The results indicate that under climate change scenarios, significantly more water bodies are expected to be in poor condition for ammonium, phosphorus, and BOD5, and to a lesser extent, nitrate. Specifically, average concentrations of ammonium and phosphorus could double during low-flow months. To maintain current water quality, substantial reductions of at least 25% in diffuse nitrate pollution and 50% in point source loads of ammonium, phosphorus, and BOD5 are required. This research underscores the importance of water quality management strategies. The third article introduces an innovative approach to simulate nitrate concentrations in surface water bodies using machine learning models. Leveraging feature selection methods and artificial intelligence algorithms, including random forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), the study achieved high precision in predicting nitrate concentrations. These models analysed 19 input variables spanning ecological, hydrological, and environmental factors, along with nitrate concentration data from surface water quality gauging stations. In particular, the research highlighted the dominant role of location, explaining 87% of nitrate variability in relation to nitrogen and phosphorus concentration. This research showcased the potential of machine learning in water quality prediction and risk assessment. / We appreciate the help provided by the Júcar River Basin District Authority (CHJ), who gathered field data. The first author’s research was partially funded by a PhD scholarship from the food research stream of the programme “Colombia Científica—Pasaporte a la Ciencia”, granted by the Colombian Institute for Educational Technical Studies Abroad (Instituto Colombiano de Crédito Educativo y Estudios Técnicos en el Exterior, ICETEX). The authors thank the Spanish Research Agency (AEI) for the financial support to RESPHIRA project (PID2019-106322RB- 100)/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. The contributors gratefully acknowledge funding for open access charge: CRUE-Universitat Politècnica de València / Dorado Guerra, DY. (2024). Modelización integrada con aprendizaje automático para evaluar la contaminación por nutrientes en las masas de agua actual y bajo el efecto del cambio climático. Aplicación a la Demarcación Hidrográfica del Júcar [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/202898 / Compendio

Unemployment at young age is a negative life event that has been found to have scarring effects for future life outcomes, especially when continuing long-term. Understanding precursors for long-term unemployment in early adulthood is important to be able to target policy interventions in critical junctures in the life course. Paths to unemployment are complex and a comprehensive outlook on the most important factors and mechanisms is difficult to obtain. This study proposes a data-driven, exploratory approach for studying individual and family level factors during ages 0-24, that predict long-term unemployment at the age of 25-30. A supervised machine learning approach was applied to understand associations deriving from longitudinal, individual-level administrative data from a full birth cohort in Finland. The data comprise information about physical and social wellbeing, life course events, as well as demographics, including the parents of the cohort members. Potential predictors were chosen from the data based on theories and previous research, and used to train a model aiming to correctly classify unemployed individuals. A CART algorithm was used to build a classification tree that reveals important variables, ranges of them as well as combinations of factors that together are predictive of long-term unemployment. A random forest algorithm was used to build several trees producing smoothed predictions that reduce overfitting of one tree. CARTs and random forest models were compared to each other to understand how they perform in a research task predicting life outcomes. Both individual and family level factors were found to be predictive of the outcome. Combinations of variables such as GPA lower than ~7.5, ego’s low education level, late work history start, depressive disorders and low parental education and income levels were found to be particularly predictive of unemployment. CART models correctly classified up to 87% of the unemployed, while misclassifying 70% of the employed and having 45% overall accuracy. Testing for CART model stability, finding consistency across several tree models improved robustness. Random forest correctly predicted up to 59% of the unemployed, while also correctly classifying 65% of the employed and producing robust results. The two algorithms together provided valuable insight for better understanding factors contributing to unemployment. The study shows promise for classification tree based methods in studying life course and life outcomes.