Thesis advisor: Robert C. Bartlett / This dissertation investigates Aristotle’s famous claim that “the human being is by nature a political animal.” This claim seems to express a basic disagreement between Aristotelian political philosophy and the contractarian political philosophy that informs modern liberalism. Aristotle asserts, contrary to Hobbes, for instance, that the political community is not a convention between naturally individual human beings but a natural entity in its own right prior to and authoritative over the individual. Yet not only are Aristotle’s reasons for supposing that we are naturally political obscure and questionable, but the meaning of Aristotle’s claim that we are naturally political is not altogether clear. For not only does Aristotle suggest that we are naturally political because the city is naturally prior to and authoritative over us, but he suggests we are political animals above all due to our distinctive faculty of reason, or speech, which, because it is the medium of the perception of advantage and justice that informs our actions, is what constitutes the city. Speech, in other words, is what brings the city to sight as the natural whole Aristotle asserts it to be. This suggests, however, that the naturalness of politics must be evaluated on the basis of such speech, which admits of clarification, and not on the basis Aristotle originally offers, which is speculation about the origins of the city. We argue that Aristotle’s dialectical examinations of despotic, political, and kingly forms of rule provide an outline of this task of clarification, which alone can permit us to evaluate the naturalness of politics. A close reading of these examinations, however, indicates that Aristotle ultimately rejects the view that the city is the natural whole it presents itself as being. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2018. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Political Science.

In this thesis we analyze learning mechanisms applied to a variety of macroeconomic models. In the first chapter, we present and discuss the advantages and limitations of estimating Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models added with learning, thus suppressing the central assumption of rational expectations. First, we introduce the reader on how learning can be inserted in those models, starting from the discussion of where and how the rational expectations operator is substituted by the learning mechanism. We then present several additional learning setups related to the information set available to agents considered by the literature, which affect directly the dynamics of the final model. Last, we estimate three different models to assess the advantages of learning in our artificially generated data and real data for Brazil. In the second chapter, we algebraically show the limitations of learning and propose two flexible methods to deal with the parameter instability in data. The first of these methods is closely related to the DSGE-VAR methodology, which we call Learning DSGE-VAR, and the second, which departs even further from the DSGE model, which we call Learning Minimum State Variable, or LMSV. Finally, in the third chapter we provide evidences that the supposedly moderate improvements found in the previous chapters have more to do with the nature of the model at hand than to the learning method itself. To do so, we simulate problems using a time-varying structure similar to the one presented in chapter 1 and evaluate the likelihood improvements with different learning mechanisms. We then provide empirical evidences of learning in reduced form models to forecast inflation, interest rates and output gap for the Brazilian economy, using ad-hoc reduced form models commonly used by practitioners. / Nesta tese analisamos os instrumentos de aprendizado (Learning) aplicados a uma variedade de modelos macroeconômicos. Em nosso primeiro capítulo, apresentamos e discutimos as vantagens e limitações de se estimar modelos dinâmicos e estocásticos de equilíbrio geral (DSGE) acrescidos de um mecanismo de aprendizado, ou seja, abandonando-se a hipótese de expectativas racionais, tão cara a estes modelos. Em primeiro lugar, mostramos como esse mecanismo pode ser introduzido nesses modelos, começando pela discussão de onde e como o operador de expectativas racionais é substituído pelo operador de aprendizado. Em seguida apresentamos configurações alternativas em relação ao conjunto de informações disponível aos agentes dentro do mecanismo de aprendizado, que afeta diretamente a dinâmica do modelo final a ser estimado. Por fim, estimamos três modelos usando nosso mecanismo de aprendizado, aplicando-o a dados artificiais e reais para a economia brasileira. No segundo capítulo, mostramos algebricamente as limitações do mecanismo de aprendizado em modelos DSGE e propomos dois métodos mais flexíveis para lidar com a instabilidade dos parâmetros nos dados. O primeiro desses métodos é intimamente ligado à literatura de DSGEVAR, e que chamamos de Learning DSGE-VAR, enquanto o segundo método, que se afasta ainda mais do modelo DSGE, ao qual chamamos de LMSV. No terceiro capítulo, provemos evidências de que os ganhos supostamente moderados de nosso modelo de aprendizado apresentados nos dois primeiros capítulos têm mais a ver com a natureza dos modelos estimados do que com o método de aprendizado utilizado. Para tal, simulamos dois grupos de dados usando uma estrutura econômica que varia no tempo, semelhante àquela estudada no primeiro capítulo, e estimamos os modelos utilizando diferentes mecanismos de aprendizado. Por fim, fornecemos evidências empíricas de aprendizado em modelos de forma reduzida para projetar inflação, taxas de juros e hiato do produto para a economia brasileira, através de modelos ad-hoc comumente utilizado por econometristas.

Kwong, Wai Ming. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 34-35). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese.

This research investigates parental choice in an active preschool education market in Taiwan. Most research into parental choice of school has been conducted in quasi-markets; markets that are highly regulated by government policy. The Taiwanese preschool market could be said to be a true market, operating through supply and demand and regulated by price. How parents operate in such markets and how their choice influences what is offered, is less explored. The research consisted of following eighteen parents through the choice process. Data collection methods involved diaries completed before the child started preschool and two in-depth interviews; one at the beginning of the school year and one nine months later. The parents who supplied the information came from different educational backgrounds, social status and family structures. For most it was their first experience of choosing an educational setting for their children. Using a rational choice theoretical framework the thesis argues that there was certain rationality in the parents’ process of choice but balancing the benefits and costs of preschool education was embedded in a wider family context. In addition, the findings show that whilst the parents were initially concerned about the more structural aspects of quality, their on-going engagement with the preschool provision enabled them to have a deeper understanding of process issues. However, there were other criteria that the parents used which would suggest that they were defining quality in a way that may be more influenced by Taiwanese life and culture. One implication is that the quality of preschool provision is not likely to improve if it is purely dependent on preschools wishing to meet the parents’expectations. However, neither will it improve if the contextual conditions are ignored. The implications for Taiwanese government preschool policy are discussed.

We employ some of the modern tools of economic theory and time series econometrics to consider a number of economic problems. The communication and coordination problems we study are relevant in accounting, business, economics and finance. The thesis begins by examining the behaviour of people and organisations, who are supposed to share a common goal. Then it considers the equilibriating mechanisms of behaviour by groups of economic agents, who usually have conflicting interests. We apply the tools of non-cooperative game theory, which constitutes a large part of modern economic theory. In the sequel, we address the question of why people behave the way they do in their economic a↵airs. Peoples' economic behaviour is mirrored in the aggregates of macroeconomics. We propose a Time Varying Autoregressive model to study the movements in the five main macroeconomic variables. The methods come from standard Time Series Analysis, but we do introduce some innovative time series techniques. Finally, we conduct an empirical investigation of the movements in one of the five main macroeconomic variables, the rate of inflation. Among the econometric tools employed are standard Autoregressive models (AR), Autoregressive Distributed Lag models (ADL) and the more recent Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / This thesis discusses the impact of modern Rational Islam on the Muslim community of the Western Cape between 1950 and 1996. It is particularly concerned with the role of Shaykh Shakier Gamieldien in establishing and propagating this discourse in the region through the use of education as his means of propagation. The study defines modern Rational Islam as a discourse that emerged as a response to the incursion of modern Western culture into traditional Muslim regions during the 19th Century. The study further reflects on the local conditions in the Western Cape and assesses the progress that modern Rational Islam had made under Gamieldien’s guidance in the period immediately after the Second World War. It investigates the negative impact that the forced removals of the community of District 6 from their urban homes in Cape Town had on Rational Islam who had lived in this area. It explores the emergence of alternative interpretive and discursive tendencies in the Townships and the apathy of the rationalists during this period. Two issues come under critical scrutiny in the thesis in order to provide clarity on the changing strategy used by Rational Islam during period of forced removals. First, the creation of new structures that could be employed for purposes of Islamic education within the rational discourse. The second was its attempt to reach a wider audience because of the destruction of its primary base in District 6. In assessing the impact of Rational Islam on the community of the Western Cape consideration is given to the changing contexts that existed between 1950 and 1996. The thesis examines the effect of the disintegration of the Muslim community and then the emergence of other discursive tendencies in the townships on Rational Islam. It also considers the indirect influence that Gamieldien’s discourse had on the other Islamic discursive tendencies in its assessment of Rational Islam’s impact. The study is based on qualitative research methods, mostly oral interviews with groups of students who studied and worked with Gamieldien as well as with individual informants such as family members, friends and his leading students. This thesis investigates the emergence and impact of Rational Islam in the Western Cape and the contribution made by Shaykh Shakier Gamieldien in its establishment in this region. It further investigates the role of education as used by Gamieldien as a means of propagating modern Rational Islam as an accepted local Islamic discourse.

A knot is an embedding of S1 in three-dimensional space. Generally, it can be thought of as a knotted piece of string with the ends glued together. When we project a knot into the plane, we can create a knot diagram in which we specify which portion of the string lies on top at each place that the string crosses itself. To perform a crossing change on a knot, one can imagine cutting one portion of the string at a crossing, allowing another portion of the string to pass through, and then gluing the cleaved ends back together. We define the distance between two knots, K1 and K2, to be the minimum number of crossing changes one must perform on either K1 or K2 to obtain the other knot. Circular DNA can become knotted during biological processes such as recombination and replication. We can model knotted DNA with a mathematical knot. Type II topoisomerases are the enzymes tasked with keeping DNA unknotted, and they act on double-stranded circular DNA by breaking the backbone of the DNA, allowing another segment of DNA to pass through, and then re-sealing the break. Thus, performing a crossing change on a knot models the action of this protein. Specifically, studying knots of distance one can help us better understand how the action of a type II topisomerase on double-stranded circular DNA can alter DNA topology. We create a knot distance graph by letting the set of vertices be rational knots with up to and including thirteen crossings and by placing an edge between two vertices if the two knots corresponding to those vertices are of distance one. A neighborhood of a vertex, v, in a graph is the set of vertices with which v is adjacent via an edge. Using graph theoretical and topological tools, we examine graphs of knot distances and define a mapping between distance one neighborhoods. Additionally, this idea can also be examined and visualized as performing Dehn surgery on the double branched cover of a knot.

In this dissertation, I examine the impact of uncertainty and information processing restrictions on standard economic models. Chapter 1 examines a reevaluation of the excess volatility puzzle in asset prices by assessing the impact of a shift in the agent's focus from minimizing average loss to minimizing maximum loss. Chapters 2 and 3 extend and clarify the newly developing arena of economic models in which the agent's capacity for information processing is systematically limited, as in the recent rational inattention literature. Chapter 1, which represents joint work with Charles Whiteman, studies the consequences changing the present value formula for stock prices. In place of the squared-error-loss minimizing expected present value of future dividends, we use a predictor optimal for the min-max preference relationship appropriate in cases of ambiguity. With ``robust" predictions, the well-known variance bound is reversed in that prices are predicted to be far more volatile than what is observed. We also investigate an intermediate ``partially robust'' case in which the degree of ambiguity is limited, and discover that such an intermediate model cannot be rejected in favor of an unrestricted time series model. Chapter 2 demonstrates the properties and solutions for the more general two-period rational inattention model. We show that the problem is convex, can be solved in seconds, and highlights several important features of information-processing-capacity-constrained models. Additionally, we show the importance of deriving, rather than assuming, the form of the final solution in rational inattention models. Chapter 3 extends the work of Chapter 2 to a finite-horizon dynamic setting by creating a structure in which distributional state and control variables interact under information-processing constraints. Limited information processing capacity is used optimally, and agents have the opportunity to trade processing capacity for higher expected future income. The framework is applied to the canonical life-cycle model of consumption and saving, and an analysis of the impact of preference parameters on optimal attention allocation is conducted. The model produces a distinct hump-shaped profile in expected consumption.

Problem The purpose of this study was to identify, implement, and evaluate a program of counseling intervention which could be described as preventative or developmental as opposed to remedial. An important consideration was the possibility of intervening with the student, the student's primary or associational groups, or the institutional groups that influence his behavior. A program of freshman orientation and career articulation was identified through institutional research, a review of literature, and the work of a student steering committee. Method An experimental population of 100 and a control population of 100 were selected from the 1971-72 entering freshman class at Weber State College. The experimental subjects were assigned to small groups (9-15) with a group leader. The experimental groups were then processed through a set of behaviorally defined steps with the goal of personalizing orientation and enabling them to determine a feasible career choice. A programmed rational decision-making model was used as the mode for articulating the career choice and establishing long-range plans for achieving that goal. This model required participation throughout this quarter. The control subjects were processed through the traditional large group, auditorium orientation. This treatment consists of three sessions of some three to four hours in length. Various administrators present information on WSC policies and practices followed by a tour of the campus. Main Findings The experimental small group process was preferred much more than the large group process and allowed students to feel that their individual needs were better met. Students in this experimental group also reported their treatment to be much more "helpful", "useful", and "informative." The time spent with experimental subjects exceeded the time spent with control subjects by 3 to 1, yet the experimental subjects indicated that the time spent was "about right" while control subjects reported their presentations were "too long". Experimental subjects reported that they were better informed about college services and policies than were control subjects. Attitudes of general satisfaction with the college as a whole were not significantly improved by the experimental treatment. Experimental subjects reported substantial gains over the control subjects in deciding a major or confirming previous plans and attributed these gains to their small group work with the decision-making model. After the experimental subjects were processed through the decision model they reported that they were more certain of their choice of major than were the control subjects. At the end of two quarters no statistically significant differences were determined about retention of subjects although approximately 16% more of the experimental subjects were still enrolled. Conclusions The review of literature presented a generally dismal picture as to the potential good to be derived from any orientation program. It was indicated that at best it may serve as a public relations function. To the contrary, the data and experience from this study indicate that orientation may be much more meaningful to participants than previous evidence would indicate. Indeed, it is believed that the introduction of career selection through a rational, sound, and logical process probably strikes at the heart of what orientation could and possibly should be about.

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