During the national preparedness in Sweden, 1939-1945, the new dimensions of the “Total war” pushed for a build-up of a Civil defence that could help to reduce effects on the civil population if Sweden were put under attack. This thesis poses the question of how women’s roles in the Civil defence were motivated and driven by the state and women’s defence organisations. It aims to further give knowledge to how social and economic constraints have shaped renegotiation processes of women’s roles in times of national crisis. It finds that the state and women´s defence organisations both evoked and dismissed women’s engagement in the Civil defence. Women were expected to contribute to specific assignments but were not admitted and obliged to the duties on the same terms as men. Women’s roles in the Civil defence changed over time; this can be derived from the increased threat of war and the augmented pressure to provide reserve labour to industries and the defence.

No description available.

Notre recherche a consisté a nous faire une opinion raisonnée sur les interventions des Institutions de Bretton-Woods en République Démocratique de Congo, en nous appuyant sur une analyse de long terme de l’endettement extérieur du pays, et par conséquent à la mise en œuvre des programmes des stabilisations dans les années 70 et d’ajustement structurel depuis les années 80. Cette analyse nous a permis de mettre en lumière les contraintes économiques et sociales, internes et extérieures, auxquelles le pays a dû faire face. Loin de soulager cette économie rentière, les thérapies de choc préconisées par ces Institutions ont provoqué des coûts ou effets secondaires négatifs, délibérément cherché ou non sur d’autres variables (revenu global, niveau des prix, inflation/hyperinflation…). D’autre part, elles ont eu un coût social élevé, et ont contribuées lourdement à une détérioration de la répartition des revenus entre les diverses couches sociales du pays. L’échec des programmes d’ajustement structurel étant aujourd’hui reconnu, il était devenu donc impératif d’imaginer d’autres types d’approches moins superficielles, qui puissent intégrer non-seulement l’équilibre des variables macro et/ou micro-économiques, mais aussi méso-économique ; et donc l’accent doit être désormais mis sur l’amont (discussions des politiques) et sur l’aval (mis au point des projets ou programmes). C’est ainsi que furent mis en place, depuis le milieu des années 90, les mesures d’allègement ou d’annulation de la dette extérieure. L’austérité préconisée aujourd’hui, face à la crise de la dette dans la zone euro, semble ne pas tenir compte des conséquences que les politiques d’inspiration monétariste ont entraînées partout où elles ont été mises en œuvre, et particulièrement en Afrique. Ainsi, nous-nous demandons si le Libéraux ont-ils retenu les leçons des échecs des programmes d’ajustement structurel (PAS) dans les pays ajustés. Pour ce faire, nous-nous sommes permis de proposer quelques perspectives ou voies de sortie afin d’éviter de retomber dans le cycle de la dette que la RD Congo a connut. / Our research was to give us a reasoned opinion on the actions of the Bretton-Woods in DR Congo, relying on an analysis of long term external debt of the country, and therefore the implementation of programs stabilization in the 70s and structural adjustment since the 80s. This analysis allowed us to highlight the economic and social constraints, internal and external, that the country faced. Far from alleviating the rentier economy, shock therapies advocated by these institutions have caused costs or negative side effects, deliberately sought or not other variables (total income, inflation/hyperinflation…). On the other hand, they had a high social cost, and contributed heavily to the deterioration of income distribution among different social strata of the country. The failure of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) is regnized today, it has become imperative to imagine other types of less superficial approaches that can integrate not only the balance of macro variables and/or micro-economic, but also meso, and therefore the emphasis should now be placed on the upstream (policy discussion) and downstream (developed projects or programs). Thus were established since the mid 90s, the relief measures or cancellation of the external debt. The austerity advocated today, faced with the debt crisis in the euro area seems to ignore the impact that monetary policies have led to inspiration wherever they have been implemented, particularity in Africa. Thus, we ask whether we Liberals have learned from the failures of adjustment programs (SAPs) in the country originates, the former adjusted. To do this, we have allowed us to propose a few prospects or output channels to avoid failing into the cycle of debt that DR Congo has experienced so far.

The objective of this thesis is to study the sources of discrepancy between the actual traffic in motorways under concession schemes and the traffic forecast ex-ante. The demand forecast for a specific project is the main variable influencing its realization. From a public sector perspective, socio-economic evaluations are driven by demand forecasts, which gives the basis for choose and hierarchy public projects in order to maximise social welfare. From a private sector perspective, traffic forecasts are the base of financial evaluation and toll setting.Despite its importance and the numerous and important developments in the field, the differences of forecast and ex-post traffic are usually very high. Some recent studies show that differences as big as 20% are much more the rule than the exception.A huge amount of uncertainty is associated with the forecasting exercise. First because transport is a derived demand and depends on many exogenous variables, also uncertain; because modelling is and simplification exercise, implies many assumptions and rely on field data, many times incomplete or of low quality; moreover, modelling human (in this case users) behaviour is always a dangerous enterprise.Although these arguments could explain at least the larger part of errors associated with forecasts, one can wonder whether the agents implicated in the forecast would or could use this uncertainty strategically in their favour. In a competition for the field scheme (bids), the bidder may overestimate the demand in order to reduce the toll included in the bid. This strategic behaviour can introduce a high bias in forecasts. Also, overoptimistic (or overpessimistic) forecasters may introduce a bias in the forecast.We propose to focus in turn on the three main groups of agents involved in the demand forecast process. The forecasters, the project promoters and the users. Study all the issues related to them would be a too ambitious (or more concretely impossible) task. We then focus on some particular issues related to the modelling of the actors' behaviour in the context of the demand forecast for toll roads.Regarding the forecaster behaviour, we present the results of the first large sample survey on forecasters' perceptions and opinions about forecasting demand for transport projects, based on an on-line survey. We first describe the main characteristics of forecasters. We then describe the last forecast forecasters prepared. We turn to the models forecasters apply, the errors they declare on past forecasts and the main sources of errors according to them. We then describe the forecast environment in terms of pressure forecasters receive. These unique results provide a picture of the world of forecasters and forecasts, allowing for a better understanding of them. We turn then to the study of the optimism and overconfidence in transport forecasts. Optimism and overconfidence in general are recognized human traits. We analyze the overoptimistic bias by comparing the distribution of stated errors with actual errors found in literature; we also compare the own skilful of subjects in doing forecasts with studies showing self-evaluations of a common skill - driving. We finally propose a regression of the competence, quality and errors on the main forecasters' and projects' specific variables.Results show that the distribution of errors transport forecasters state has a smaller average magnitude and a smaller variance than those found in literature. Comparing forecasters perception of their own competence with the results found in literature about drivers skill self-evaluation, however, we could not find a significant difference, meaning that the forecasters' overconfidence is in line with what could be viewed as a normal human overconfidence level.The pressure for results forecasters receive and the strategic manipulation they affirm exist merit a special attention. They imply that while forecasters' behavioural biases may exist and should be take in account when evaluation forecasts, the project promoter may influence forecasts by pressuring the forecasters to produce results which better fit his expectancies.We then study the bidders' strategic behaviour in auctions for road concessions. We address three questions in turn. First, we investigate the overall effects of the winner's curse on bidding behaviour in such auctions. Second, we examine the effects of the winner's curse on contract auctions with differing levels of common-value components. Third, we investigate how the winner's curse affects bidding behaviour in such auctions when we account for the possibility for bidders to renegotiate. Using a unique, self-constructed, dataset of 49 worldwide road concessions, we show that the winner's curse effect is particularly strong in toll road concession contract auctions. Thus, we show that bidders bid less aggressively in toll road concession auctions when they expect more competition. We observe that this winner's curse effect is even larger for projects where the common uncertainty is greater. Moreover, we show that the winner's curse effect is weaker when the likelihood of renegotiation is higher. While the traditional implication would be that more competition is not always desirable when the winner's curse is particularly strong, we show that, in toll road concession contract auctions, more competition may be always desirable. Modelling aggregated users' behaviour, we study the long term traffic maturity. We argue that traffic maturity results from decreasing marginal utility of transport. The elasticity of individual mobility with respect to the revenue decreases after a certain level of mobility is reached. In order to find evidences of decreasing elasticity we analyse a cross-section time-series sample including 40 French motorways' sections. This analysis shows that decreasing elasticity can be observed in the long term. We then propose a decreasing function for the traffic elasticity with respect to the economic growth, which depends on the traffic level on the road. Although “unconditional” decreasing elasticities were already proposed in the literature, this is the first work, as far as we know, putting this idea in evidence and giving it a functional form. This model provides better interpretation of the coupling between traffic and economic growth, and a better long-term forecast. From the disaggregate perspective, we study the main individual modal choice variable, the value of time. The value of travel time savings is a fundamental concept in transport economics and its size strongly affects the socio-economic evaluation of transport schemes. Financial assessment of tolled roads rely upon the value of time as the main (or even the unique) willingness to pay measure. Values of time estimates, which primarily represent behavioural values, as then increasingly been used as measures of out-of-pocket money. In this setting, one of the main issues regarding the value of time is its distribution over the population. We apply the Logit, the Mixed Logit and the Bayesian Mixed Logit models to estimate the value of time in freight transport in France. Estimations with mixed logit faced many difficulties, as expected. These difficulties could be avoided using the Bayesian procedures, providing also the opportunity of properly integrating a priori beliefs. Results show that 1) using a single constant value of time, representative of an average, can lead to demand overestimation, 2) the estimated average value of time of freight transport in France is about 45 Euro, depending on the load/empty and hire/own account variables, which implies that 3) the standard value recommended in France should be reviewed upwards.

This thesis contains three self-contained chapters, covering different subjects but using similar methods: The Effect of Foreclosure Laws on Securitization: Evidence from U.S. States shows that mortgage loans are less likely to be securitized in states with costlier foreclosure procedures. I interpret this in light of prior literature showing a higher foreclosure risk for securitized loans, due to unwillingness to renegotiate by the agents working on behalf of investors. Moreover, the magnitude of the effect increases for loans with higher risk of default, and disappears for loans where state foreclosure laws usually do not apply. Do daughters make family firms more sustainable? studies listed companies with a family owning a large block of shares, and asks how the family composition affects the company’s policies. Creating a novel Swedish data set, I find that environmental performance improves when the family has more daughters. The effect does not seem to operate through more adult daughters leading to more female CEOs or board members, or through the appointment of family members as CEOs. Bank taxes, leverage and risk uses staggered changes in US state-level bank taxation, and documents an increase in leverage when taxes are raised. Banks partly dampen the effect by adjusting their Tier 2 capital (a lower-quality form of regulatory capital that is less able to absorb losses), and by reducing the risk on the asset side of the balance sheet as measured by regulators. / <p>Diss. Stockholm :  Stockholm School of Economics, 2015. Introduction together with 3 papers</p>

No description available.

In this article, the author highlights the benefits of incorporating the concepts “concession contract” and “long term contract” within the new Civil and Commercial Code of the Nation in Argentina. For the author, these contractual arrangements are fundamental in Administrative Law to understand the scope of the concession of public services, specifically in regard to the introduction of changes in the contract. This also means that foreign police concepts or theories as ius variandi, which only add authoritarian elements under the contract, are not longer required. / En el presente artículo, el autor resalta los beneficios de la incorporación de los conceptos “contrato de concesión” y “contrato de larga duración” dentro del nuevo Código Civil y Comercial de la Nación argentina. Así, para el autor, estas figuras contractuales son fundamentales en el Derecho Administrativo para poder comprender los alcances del contrato de concesión de servicios públicos, específicamente, en cuanto a la introducción de variaciones en la ejecución del contrato. Ello conlleva, además, que ya no se tenga que recurrir a conceptospoliciales extraños o a teorías como la del ius variandi que únicamente añaden elementos autoritarios en el marco del contrato.

La renégociation reste l'un des mécanismes les plus captivants et les plus controversés des deux derniers siècles. S'il est admis que dans les relations à long terme, plus sensibles aux changements de circonstances, efficacité et flexibilité du contrat sont liées, il était considéré depuis l'arrêt Canal de Craponne de 1876, que la renégociation ne pouvait devait découler que de la volonté des parties ou d'une clause contractuelle. En France, la réforme du code civil de 2016 rompt avec cette jurisprudence et consacre définitivement la théorie de l'imprévision. Si l'avancée est importante, le régime de ce devoir de renégociation reste à préciser. Il en est de même de l'importance dorénavant reconnu à l'autonomie de la volonté. En droit OHADA également l'horizon est favorable à la renégociation. Lancé sur un chantier d'actes uniformes sur le droit des contrats, le législateur entend à cette occasion, consacrer la renégociation pour hardship. Il pourrait ainsi s'inspirer de la réforme du droit français, mais aussi et surtout de l'expérience des tribunaux africains. En effet, très vite le juge africain, conscient de l'inadéquation d'une application rigoureuse du code civil de 1804 à des situations juridiques ancrées dans un contexte socio-économique africain différent de celui du justiciable français, a, par divers subterfuges régulièrement imposé la renégociation du contrat lorsque l'évolution des circonstances l'imposait. Aujourd'hui renégocier n'est plus qu'un vieil usage du commerce que pourrait ainsi consolider le législateur OHADA dans le futur acte uniforme sur le droit des contrats en s'aidant des précisions apportées par la jurisprudence arbitrale sur la question / Renegotiation remains one of the most exciting but also the most controversial judicial mechanisms of the last two centuries. In long-term relationships, which are more sensitive to changes in circumstances, contract efficiency and flexibility are linked. Since the Craponne Canal 1876 legal judgment, it was assumed that renegotiation could arise only when supported by the parties or the contractual term. In France, the 2016 civil code reform breaks with this case law and definitively establishes the doctrine of unforeseeability. Although important progress has been made, the duty to renegotiation still remains unclear. This is also the case for the recognized importance of contractual autonomy. The OHADA law is favorable for renegotiation. Launched as part of a set of uniform judicial acts on contract law, the legislator intends to devote renegotiation for hardship. This law could well learn from the reform of French law, but also from the experience of African courts. African judges, quickly became aware of the inadequacy of a rigorous application of the civil code of 1804 to legal cases consistent with the African socio-economic context which is different from that of a french defendant. As a consequence, these judges, using various strategies, would often impose contract renegotiation when necessary. Nowadays, renegotiation is commonly used in trade and this might well strengthen the OHADA legislator in developing the future uniform act on contract law. For this, information provided by the arbitral jurisprudence on the matter will be valuable

We present three chapters on theoretical issues of banking. These deal with bank runs, risk sharing, lending and profitability. In the first chapter, we examine the agency problem in the bank-depositor relationship. Depositors are the principals and banks are the agents. Banks choose investment portfolios and are subject to moral hazard in that they have incentive to take on more risk than desirable to depositors because they are residual claimants. We study an incentive-compatible mechanism that prompts banks to follow a safe investment policy. This mechanism leaves the bank a profit margin in a similar manner to a CEO being paid a bonus by a company. In the second chapter, we extend Allen and Gale (1998) by adding a long-term riskless investment opportunity to the original portfolio of a short-term liquid asset and a long-term risky illiquid asset. Through portfolio diversification, we identify the risk-sharing deposit contract in a three-period model that maximizes the ex-ante expected utility of depositors. Unlike Allen and Gale, there are no information-based bank runs in equilibrium. In addition, our model can improve consumers' welfare over the Allen and Gale model. I also show that the bank will choose to liquidate the cheaper investments, in terms of the gain-loss ratios for the two types of existing long-term assets, when there is liquidity shortage in some cases. Such a policy reduces the liquidation cost and enables the bank to meet the outstanding liability to depositors without large liquidation losses. In the third chapter, we study the role of banks in providing loans to borrower firms. This paper extends the theory of designing optimal loan contracts (for profits) in the Bolton and Scharfstein (1996) model to a setting where asymmetry of information exists. Based on the verifiability of information structure, we analyze complete and incomplete contracts. Through this analysis, optimal, incentive-compatible loan contracts that maximize the expected profit of the bank are characterized. Our analysis suggests that a bank could be induced to liquidate a borrower's project under specific conditions. Furthermore, we identify implementable mechanisms for the renegotiation game given the bargaining power between a borrower and a bank.

La présente thèse de doctorat propose une étude empirique des liens existant entre la sphère politique et la gestion des services publics locaux en France. Les municipalités sont confrontées à un choix lorsqu’elles doivent administrer leurs services publics : elles peuvent fournir un service en régie ou l’externaliser, et ainsi conclure des contrats avec le secteur privé. Dans un premier temps, ces arrangements conclus entre des entités publiques et privées sont analysés, et l’influence des motivations électorales des maires sur les renégociations contractuelles est révélée. Dans un second temps, les facteurs influençant les choix des maires entre gestion directe et externalisation sont étudiés. L’idéologie des maires successifs d’une ville apparaît comme un déterminant fondamental de la proportion de services publics gérés en régie. Enfin, le recours simultané à la régie et à l’externalisation pour un même service public est analysé, et il apparaît que ce choix est davantage stratégique que politique. Cette thèse de doctorat contribue à améliorer notre compréhension de la gestion des services publics locaux, et établit l’importance des facteurs politiques dans l’étude de cette dernière. / This dissertation offers an empirical investigation of the links between the political sphere and the management of local public services in France. When they administer public services, local governments can decide either to provide a service in-house,or to externalize its management, and therefore conclude contracts with private entities.First, these public-private contracts are analyzed, and the major influence of mayors’ electoral motives on contractual renegotiations is revealed. Second, the drivers of the choice between internal provision and externalization of public services are studied. The political affiliation of successive mayors is found to be a major determinant of the proportion of public services provided in-house. Finally, the decision to provide one public service using simultaneously in-house provisionand externalization is studied, and it appears that this choice is more motivated by pragmatism rather than ideology. This dissertation contributes to add knowledge to the understanding of the management of local public services, and highlights the importance of political factors in the study of the latter.