In this study, the limitations of point-source stochastic simulations are investigated in terms of fundamental geophysical parameters. Within this context, a total of 6000 synthetic ground motions are generated for various magnitude (5.0 &amp / #8804 / Mw &amp / #8804 / 7.5), source-to-site distance (less than 100 km), faulting style (shallow dipping and strike-slip) and site class (soft, stiff and rock) bins. The simulations are performed in two main stages: (1) the acceleration time series at outcropping very hard rock sites are simulated based on the stochastic method proposed by Boore (1983, 2003) and (2) they are modified through 1-D equivalent linear site response analysis to generate the free-field motions at soft, stiff and rock sites. Thus, as a part of this study, a probability-based soil profile model that considers the random variation of S-wave slowness as a function of depth is derived. The synthetic ground motions are assessed with several recent empirical ground-motion models to constitute the limitations of the simulation procedure. It is believed that the outcomes of this study will realistically describe the limitations of stochastic point-source simulation approach that can be employed further for the studies on improvements of this simulation technique.

Turkey is one of the most earthquake prone countries in the world. The study area, Erbaa, is located in a seismically active fault zone known as North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Erbaa is one of the towns of Tokat located in the Middle Black Sea Region. According to the Earthquake zoning map of Turkey, the study area is in the First Degree Earthquake Zone. The city center of Erbaa (Tokat) was previously settled on the left embankment of Kelkit River. After the disastrous 1942 Niksar-Erbaa earthquake (Mw = 7.2), the settlement was moved southwards. From the period of 1900s, several earthquakes occurred in this region and around Erbaa. The 1942 earthquake is the most destructive earthquake in the center of Erbaa settlement. In this study, the geological and geotechnical properties of the study area were investigated by detailed site investigations. The Erbaa settlement is located on alluvial and Pliocene deposits. The Pliocene clay, silt, sand, and gravel layers exist in the southern part of Erbaa. Alluvium in Erbaa region consists of gravelly, sandy, silty, and clayey layers. The alluvial deposits are composed of stratified materials of heterogeneous grain sizes, derived from various geological units in the vicinity. The main objective of this study is to prepare a seismic microzonation map of the study area for urban planning purposes since it is getting more essential to plan new settlements considering safe development strategies after the disastrous earthquakes. In this respect, seismic hazard analyses were performed to deterministically assess the seismic hazard of the study area. Afterwards, the essential ground motions were predicted regarding near fault effects as the study area is settled on an active fault zone. 1-D equivalent linear site response analyses were carried out to evaluate the site effects in the study area. Amplification values obtained from site response analyses reveal that the soil layers in the study area is quite rigid. Furthermore, liquefaction potential and post liquefaction effects including lateral spreading and vertical settlement were also delineated for the study area. The above-mentioned parameters were taken into account in order to prepare a final seismic microzonation map of the study area. The layers were evaluated on the basis of overlay methodologies including Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Two different MCDA techniques, Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), were carried out in GIS environment. The seismic microzonation maps prepared by SAW and AHP methods are compared to obtain a final seismic microzonation map. Finally, the map derived from the AHP method is proposed to be the final seismic microzonation map of Erbaa. As an overall conclusion, the northwestern part of the study area where the loose alluvial units exist is found to be vulnerable to earthquake-induced deformations. On the other hand, the Pliocene units in the southern and alluvial units in the northeastern part are quite resistant to earthquake effects. In addition, the proposed final seismic microzonation map should be considered by urban planners and policy makers during urban planning projects in Erbaa.

Earthquake is undoubtedly one of the greatest natural disasters that can induce serious structural damage and huge losses of properties and lives. The resulting destructive consequences not only have made structural seismic analysis and design much more important but have impelled the necessity of more realistic representation of ground motions, such as inclusion of ground motion spatial variations in earthquake modelling and seismic analysis and design of structures. Recorded seismic ground motions exhibit spatial variations in their amplitudes and phases, and the spatial variabilities have an important effect on the responses of structures extended in space, such as long span bridges. Because of the multi-parametric nature and the complexity of the problems, the development of specific design provisions on spatial variabilities of ground motions in modern seismic codes has been impeded. Eurocode 8 is currently the only seismic standard worldwide that gives a set of detailed guidelines to explicitly tackle spatial variabilities of ground motions in bridge design, providing both a simplified design scheme and an analytical approach. However, there is gap between the code-specified provisions in Eurocode 8 and the realistic representation of spatially varying ground motions (SVGM) and the corresponding stochastic vibration analysis (SVA) approaches. This study is devoted to bridge this gap on modelling of SVGM and development of SVA approaches for structures extended in space under SVGM. A complete and realistic SVGM representation approach is developed by accounting for the incoherence effect, wave-passage effect, site-response effect, ground motion nonstationarity, tridirectionality, and spectra-compatibility. This effort brings together various aspects regarding rational seismic scenarios determination, comprehensive methods of accounting for varying site effects, conditional modelling of SVGM nonstationarity, and code-specified ground motion spectra-compatibility. A comprehensive, systematic, and efficient SVA methodology is derived for long span structures under tridirectional nonstationary SVGM. An absolute-response-oriented scheme of pseudo-excitation method and an improved high precision direct integration method are proposed to reduce the enormous computational effort of conventional nonstationary SVA. A scheme accounting for tridirectional varying site-response effect is incorporated in the nonstationary SVA scheme systematically. The proposed highly efficient and accurate SVA approach is implemented and verified in a general finite element analysis platform to make it readily applicable in SVA of complex structures. Based on the proposed SVA approach, parametric studies of two practical long span bridges under SVGM are conducted. To account for spatial randomness and variability of soil properties in soil-structure interaction analysis of structures under SVGM, a meshfree-Galerkin approach is proposed within the Karhunen-Loeve expansion scheme for representation of spatial soil properties modelled as a random field. The meshfree shape functions are proposed as a set of basis functions in the Galerkin scheme to solve integral equation of Karhunen-Loeve expansion, with a proposed optimization scheme in treating the compatibility between the target and analytical covariance models. The accuracy and validity of the meshfree-Galerkin scheme are assessed and demonstrated by representation of covariance models for various homogeneous and nonhomogeneous spatial fields. The developed modelling approaches of SVGM and the derived analytical SVA approaches can be applied to provide more refined solutions for quantitatively assessing code-specified design provisions and developing new design provisions. The proposed meshfree-Galerkin approach can be used to account for spatial randomness and variability of soil properties in soil-structure interaction analysis.

This thesis develops and explores two methodologies to assess earthquake ground shaking in southwestern British Columbia based on 1D soil layering and 3D basin structure. To assess site response based on soil layering, microtremor array measurements were conducted at two sites of contrasting geology to estimate Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves. A Bayesian inversion algorithm is developed to invert the dispersion data for the shear-wave velocity (VS) profile together with quantitative uncertainty estimates, accounting rigorously for data error covariance and model parameterization selection. The recovered VS profiles are assessed for reliability by comparison with invasive VS measurements at each site with excellent agreement. Probabilistic site response analysis is conducted based on a sample of VS profiles drawn from the posterior probability density of the microtremor inversion. The quantitative uncertainty analysis shows that the rapid and inexpensive microtremor array method provides sufficient resolution of soil layering for practical characterization of earthquake ground motion. To assess the effects of 3D Georgia basin structure on long-period (> 2 s) ground motion for large scenario earthquakes, numerical 3D finite difference modelling of viscoelastic wave propagation is applied. Both deep (> 40 km) subducting Juan de Fuca plate and crustal (5 km) North America plate earthquakes are simulated in locations congruent with known seismicity. Simulations are calibrated by comparing synthetic waveforms with 36 selected strong- and weak-motion seismograms of the 2001 MW 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. The ratio between predicted peak ground motions in models with and without Georgia basin sediments is applied as a quantitative measure of basin amplification. Steep edges in the upper 1 km of the northwest and southeast extents of the basin are coincident with the appearance of surface waves. Focussing of north-to-northeast propagating surface waves by shallow (< 1 km) basin structure increases ground motion in a localized region of southern Greater Vancouver. This effect occurs for both types of earthquakes located south-southwest of Vancouver at distances greater than ~80 km. The predicted shaking level is increased up to 17 times and the duration of moderate shaking (> 3.4 cm/s) is up to 16 times longer due to the 3D Georgia basin structure. / Graduate

Occurrence of displacements of shallow mat foundations resting on saturated silt-clay mixtures were reported in Mexico City during 1985 Mexico Earthquake, and in Adapazari during 1999 Kocaeli (izmit) Earthquake. Soft surface soils, shallow ground water, limited foundation embedments and deep alluvial deposits were the common features pertaining to such foundation displacements in either case. Experience shows, while uniform foundation settlements, even when excessive, do not limit post earthquake serviceability of building structures, tilting is particularly problematic. In this study, a simplified methodology is developed to estimate the seismically induced irrecoverable tilting potential of shallow mats on fine saturated soils. The undrained shear and deformation behavior of silt-clay mixtures encountered at the Adapazari sites with significant foundation displacements are investigated through a series of standard and rapid monotonic, and stress-controlled cyclic triaxial tests conducted over anisotropically consolidated natural soil samples. Test results show that, while the shear strength of these soils do not significantly degrade under means of loading comparable to that of Kocaeli earthquake, their plastic strain accumulation characteristics critically depend on the mode of loading as well as the relative levels of applied load with regard to the monotonic strength. Based on the results of laboratory tests, the response of nonlinear soil-foundation-structure system is reduced to a single-degree-of-freedom oscillator with elastic-perfectly plastic behavior. The natural period of the system is expressed by simplified soil-structure-interaction equations. Pseudo-static yield acceleration, which is required to initiate the foundation bearing capacity failure when applied to the structural mass, is estimated by the finite-element method. Eventually, the tilting potential of the foundations is estimated utilizing inelastic response of the nonlinear oscillator. Response of the deep alluvium sites, which involves velocity pulses with periods consistent with the fundamental site period, is significant in determination of inelastic response of low bearing capacity systems. Predictive capability of the methodology developed is tested with actual case data. The methodology is observed to predict irrecoverable tilting potential of foundations consistent with the observations, except for the cases with low seismic bearing capacity. Deviations are explained considering the sensitivity of low-strength systems to asymmetrical behavior and uncertainties involved in seismic demand.

Les travaux de cette thèse s'inscrivent dans l'objectif général de fournir des recommandations sur la façon d'intégrer les effets du site dans l'évaluation probabiliste des risques sismiques, mieux connue sous le nom de PSHA, une méthodologie connue et utilisée à l'échelle mondiale pour estimer l'aléa et le risque sismiques à l'échelle régionale et locale. Nous passons donc en revue les méthodes disponibles dans la littérature pour obtenir la courbe d'aléa sismique en surface d'un site non-rocheux, en commençant par les méthodes les plus simples et plus génériques (partiellement probabiliste), jusqu'aux méthodes site-spécifiques (partiellement et entièrement probabilistes) qui nécessitent une caractérisation du site de plus en plus poussée, rarement disponible sauf cas exceptionnel comme par exemple le site test d'Euroseistest. C'est justement sur l'exemple de ce site que sont donc comparées un certain nombre de ces méthodes, ainsi qu'une nouvelle.La spécificité et la difficulté de ces études PSHA "site-spécifiques" vient du caractère non-linéaire de la réponse des sites peu rigides, ainsi que du fait que le rocher de référence contrôlant cette réponse est souvent très rigide. Les aspects "ajustement rocher dur" et "convolution" de l'aléa sismique au rocher avec la fonction d'amplification ou la fonction transfert (empirique ou numérique) d’un site font donc l'objet d'une attention particulière dans ces études comparatives. Un cadre général est présenté sur la façon de prendre en compte simultanément les caractéristiques spécifiques au site, la variabilité aléatoire complète ou réduite ("single station sigma"), les ajustements hôte-cible et le comportement linéaire / non linéaire d'un site, où nous expliquons toutes les étapes, corrections, avantages et difficultés que nous avons trouvés dans le processus et les différentes façons de les mettre en oeuvre.Cette étude comparative est divisée en deux parties: la première porte sur les méthodes non site-spécifiques et les méthodes hybrides site-spécifique (évaluation probabiliste de l'aléa au rocher et déterministe de la réponse de site), la seconde porte sur deux approches prenant en compte la convolution aléa rocher / réponse de site de façon probabiliste. Un des résultats majeurs de la première est l'augmentation de l'incertitude épistémique sur l'aléa en site meuble comparé à l'aléa au rocher, en raison du cumul des incertitudes associées à chaque étape. Un autre résultat majeur commun aux deux études est l'impact très important de la non-linéarité du sol dans les sites souples, ainsi que de la façon de les prendre en compte: la variabilité liée à l'utilisation de différents codes de simulation NL apparaît plus importante que la variabilité liée à différentes méthodes de convolution 100% probabilistes. Nous soulignons l'importance d'améliorer la manier d’inclure les effets du site dans les méthodes de l’estimation de l’aléa sismique probabiliste ou PSHA, et nous soulignons aussi l'importance d'instrumenter des sites actifs avec des sédiments meubles, comme l'Euroseistest, afin de tester et valider les modèles numériques.Finalement, on présente un résumé des résultats, des conclusions générales, de la discussion sur les principaux problèmes méthodologiques et des perspectives d'amélioration et de travail futur.Mots-clés: Effets du site, incertitude épistémique, PSHA, single station sigma, ajustements hôte-cible, effets linéaires et non linéaires, réponse de site / The overall goal of this research work is of provide recommendations on how to integrate site effects into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, better known as PSHA, a well-known and widely used methodology. Globally used to estimate seismic hazard and risk at regional and local scales. We therefore review the methods available in the literature to obtain the seismic hazard curve at the surface of a soft soil site, starting with the simplest and most generic methods (partially probabilistic), up to the full site-specific methods (partially and fully probabilistic), requiring an excellent site-specific characterization, rarely available except exceptional cases such as the case of Euroseistest site. It is precisely on the example of this site that are compared a number of these methods, as well as a new one. And it is precisely at the Euroseistest that we performed an example of application of the different methods as well as a new one that we propose as a result of this work.The specificity and difficulty of these "site-specific" PSHA studies comes from the non-linear nature of the response of the soft sites, as well as from the fact that the reference rock controlling this response is often very rigid. The "rock to hard rock adjustment" and "convolution" aspects of the rock seismic hazard, together with the amplification function or the transfer function (empirical or numerical) of a site are therefore the subject of particular attention in these studies. comparative studies. A general framework is presented on how to simultaneously take into account the site-specific characteristics, such as the complete or reduced random variability ("single station sigma"), host-to -target adjustments and the linear / nonlinear behavior of a site, where we explain all the followed steps, the different corrections performed, the benefits and difficulties that we found in the process and the ways we sort them and discussing them when the answer was not straight forward.This comparative study is divided into two parts: the first deals with non-site-specific methods and site-specific hybrid methods (probabilistic evaluation of rock hazard and deterministic of the site response). The second deals with two approaches taking into account the convolution of rock hazard and the site response in a probabilistically way. One of the major results of the first is the increase of the epistemic uncertainty on the soft site hazard compared to the rock hazard, due to acumulation of uncertainties associated to each step. Another major common result to both studies is the very important impact of non-linearity on soft sites, as well as the complexity on how to account for them: the variability associated with the use of different non-linear simulation codes appears to be greater than the method-to-method variability associated with the two different full convolution probabilistic methods. We emphasize on the importance of improving the way in which the site effects are included into probabilistic seismic hazard methods, PSHA. And we also emphasize on the importance of instrumenting active sites with soft sediments, such as the Euroseistest, to test and validate numerical models.Finally, a summary of the results, the general conclusions, discussion of key methodological issues, and perspectives for improvement and future work are presented.Keywords: Site Effects, Epistemic Uncertainty, PSHA, single station sigma, host to target adjustments, linear and nonlinear site effects, soil site response.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第21950号 / 理博第4528号 / 新制||理||1650(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 釜井 俊孝, 教授 千木良 雅弘 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

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One of the most difficult tasks towards designing earthquake resistant structures is the determination of critical earthquakes. Conceptually, these are the ground motions that would induce the critical response in the structures being designed. The quantification of this concept, however, is not easy. Unlike the linear response of a structure, which can often be obtained by using a single spectrally modified ground acceleration history, the nonlinear response is strongly dependent on the phasing of ground motion and the detailed shape of its spectrum. This necessitates the use of a suite (bin) of ground acceleration histories having phasing and spectral shapes appropriate for the characteristics of the earthquake source, wave propagation path, and site conditions that control the design spectrum. Further, these suites of records may have to be scaled to match the design spectrum over a period range of interest, rotated into strike-normal and strike-parallel directions for near-fault effects, and modified for local site conditions before they can be input into time-domain nonlinear analysis of structures. The generation of these acceleration histories is cumbersome and daunting. This is especially so due to the sheer magnitude of the data processing involved. The purpose of this thesis is the development and documentation of PC-based computational tools (hereinafter called EQTools) to provide a rapid and consistent means towards systematic assembly of representative strong ground motions and their characterization, evaluation, and modification within a performance-based seismic design framework. The application is graphics-intensive and every effort has been made to make it as user-friendly as possible. The application seeks to provide processed data which will help the user address the problem of determination of the critical earthquakes. The various computational tools developed in EQTools facilitate the identification of severity and damage potential of more than 700 components of recorded earthquake ground motions. The application also includes computational tools to estimate the ground motion parameters for different geographical and tectonic environments, and perform one-dimensional linear/nonlinear site response analysis as a means to predict ground surface motions at sites where soft soils overlay the bedrock. While EQTools may be used for professional practice or academic research, the fundamental purpose behind the development of the software is to make available a classroom/laboratory tool that provides a visual basis for learning the principles behind the selection of ground motion histories and their scaling/modification for input into time domain nonlinear (or linear) analysis of structures. EQTools, in association with NONLIN, a Microsoft Windows based application for the dynamic analysis of single- and multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems (Charney, 2003), may be used for learning the concepts of earthquake engineering, particularly as related to structural dynamics, damping, ductility, and energy dissipation. / Master of Science

<p>The research presented in this dissertation investigates the influence of soil-structure<br> interaction on seismic isolation of nuclear reactor vessels using numerical simulations. This<br> research is motivated by the nuclear industry searching for viable solutions to standardize<br> the design of reactor vessels. Seismic isolation of reactor vessels is a potential solution as it<br> enables deployment of standardized reactor vessels irrespective of site seismic hazard<br> thereby saving time and cost by allowing large-scale factory fabrication of standard<br> modules and by eliminating the need for repeated approval of reactor vessel design. Seismic<br> isolation is also a technology that has matured from successful implementation in buildings<br> and bridges allowing easier transition to nuclear applications. Currently, the<br> implementation of component-level seismic isolation in nuclear industry is challenging due<br> to gaps in research and lack of specific guidelines.</p> <p><br></p> <p><br> In this research, the effectiveness and potential limitations of using conventional friction<br> pendulum bearings for component-level isolation are investigated based on conceptual<br> numerical models of seismically isolated reactor vessels at different nuclear power plant<br> sites subject to a variety of ground motions. The numerical modeling and analysis<br> approach presented in this research are checked using experimental data and results from<br> multiple numerical codes to ensure reliability of the obtained analysis results.</p> <p><br></p> <p><br> Within the scope of this study, it is found that slender vessels are particularly vulnerable<br> to rotational acceleration at the isolation interface. Rotational acceleration at the isolation<br> interface is caused by rotation at the foundation level of the containment building housing<br> the isolated reactor vessel and by excitation of higher horizontal translational modes of the<br> seismically isolated system. Rotation of the building foundation increases with decrease in<br> shear wave velocity of the soil surrounding the building foundation. When the containment<br> building is embedded below the soil surface, the effect of embedment on peak horizontal<br> acceleration of the isolated vessel depends on the amount of increase in shear wave velocity<br> at the foundation level of the building. When embedment does not result in any change in<br> shear wave velocity, it is found to have negligible impact on the acceleration response of the<br> isolated vessel.</p> <p><br></p> <p>  The optimum location to support a vessel for seismic isolation is found to be on a plane<br> passing through its center of mass. It minimizes horizontal acceleration in the isolated<br> vessel as well as the tendency of isolator to uplift. Isolator uplift and exceedence of<br> displacement capacity of the isolator during extreme events are possible drawbacks in using<br> seismic isolation technology since they produce impact forces due to uplift and<br> re-engagement of the isolator or due to collision between the isolated system and the moat<br> wall. If such cases are avoided, seismic isolation of reactor vessel could provide more than<br> 50% reduction in peak acceleration of vessel except for low-intensity motions that do not<br> engage the isolator.<br>  <br>  </p>