Orientador: Anna Diva Plasencia Lotufo / Resumo: A maior inserção de tecnologias da informação nas redes de distribuição de energia elétrica vem permitindo que maiores volumes de dados de consumo sejam capturados em níveis cada vez mais detalhados, menos agregados e com maiores resoluções. Com a evolução dos mercados de energia elétrica, esses tipos de dados alcançam maior importância, uma vez que a comercialização de energia também passa a considerar estes níveis de consumo. Diversas técnicas têm sido aplicadas para previsão de cargas elétricas, como modelos estatísticos, de inteligência computacional e híbridos. Na literatura especializada é possível encontrar trabalhos que aplicam a rede neural artificial ARTMAP Fuzzy para tarefas de previsão de cargas elétricas, no entanto, a técnica ainda é pouco explorada em cenários de consumo menos agregados, e com maiores níveis de detalhe. Neste trabalho a rede ARTMAP Fuzzy é aplicada em tarefas de previsão multi-step de cargas elétricas reais com distintos níveis de agregação. Considerando o impacto do ruído sobre os previsores, sobretudo na capacidade de generalização das redes neurais artificiais, a técnica singular spectrum analysis é aplicada na tarefa de remoção de ruído. Os resultados de previsão permitiram analisar desempenho da rede ARTMAP Fuzzy, que foi comparada com outros dois previsores utilizados como benchmark, a saber, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average e a rede neural multiLayer perceptron. A remoção de ruído permitiu melhora nos níveis de generaliz... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The increased insertion of information technologies in electricity distribution networks has allowed larger volumes of consumption data to be captured at increasingly detailed, less aggregated and higher resolution levels. With the evolution of electric energy markets, these types of data become more important, since the commercialization of energy also begins to consider these levels of consumption. Several techniques have been applied to predict electrical loads, such as statistical, computational intelligence and hybrids models. In the specialized literature it is possible to find works that apply the artificial neural network ARTMAP Fuzzy for tasks of prediction of electric charges, however, the technique is still little explored in less aggregated consumption scenarios, and with greater levels of detail. In this work the ARTMAP Fuzzy network is applied in multi-step forecasting tasks of real electric loads with different levels of aggregation. Considering the impact of noise on predictors, especially in the generalization capacity of artificial neural networks, the singular spectrum analysis technique is applied in the noise removal task. The prediction results allowed to analyze the performance of the ARTMAP Fuzzy network, which was compared with other two predictors used as benchmark, namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and the multiLayer perceptron neural network. The noise removal allowed an improvement in the levels of network generalization, po... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor

Submitted by MARCOS RICARDO MÜLLER (marcos.ricardo.unesp@gmail.com) on 2018-04-23T16:13:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 muller_mr_tese_lv.pdf: 4063915 bytes, checksum: 2bd34db37cecdea37a74a93bf0e348b5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Cristina Alexandra de Godoy null (cristina@adm.feis.unesp.br) on 2018-04-23T17:10:16Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 muller_mr_dr_ilha.pdf: 4063915 bytes, checksum: 2bd34db37cecdea37a74a93bf0e348b5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-23T17:10:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 muller_mr_dr_ilha.pdf: 4063915 bytes, checksum: 2bd34db37cecdea37a74a93bf0e348b5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A maior inserção de tecnologias da informação nas redes de distribuição de energia elétrica vem permitindo que maiores volumes de dados de consumo sejam capturados em níveis cada vez mais detalhados, menos agregados e com maiores resoluções. Com a evolução dos mercados de energia elétrica, esses tipos de dados alcançam maior importância, uma vez que a comercialização de energia também passa a considerar estes níveis de consumo. Diversas técnicas têm sido aplicadas para previsão de cargas elétricas, como modelos estatísticos, de inteligência computacional e híbridos. Na literatura especializada é possível encontrar trabalhos que aplicam a rede neural artificial ARTMAP Fuzzy para tarefas de previsão de cargas elétricas, no entanto, a técnica ainda é pouco explorada em cenários de consumo menos agregados, e com maiores níveis de detalhe. Neste trabalho a rede ARTMAP Fuzzy é aplicada em tarefas de previsão multi-step de cargas elétricas reais com distintos níveis de agregação. Considerando o impacto do ruído sobre os previsores, sobretudo na capacidade de generalização das redes neurais artificiais, a técnica singular spectrum analysis é aplicada na tarefa de remoção de ruído. Os resultados de previsão permitiram analisar desempenho da rede ARTMAP Fuzzy, que foi comparada com outros dois previsores utilizados como benchmark, a saber, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average e a rede neural multiLayer perceptron. A remoção de ruído permitiu melhora nos níveis de generalização da rede, impactando positivamente sua capacidade preditiva. / The increased insertion of information technologies in electricity distribution networks has allowed larger volumes of consumption data to be captured at increasingly detailed, less aggregated and higher resolution levels. With the evolution of electric energy markets, these types of data become more important, since the commercialization of energy also begins to consider these levels of consumption. Several techniques have been applied to predict electrical loads, such as statistical, computational intelligence and hybrids models. In the specialized literature it is possible to find works that apply the artificial neural network ARTMAP Fuzzy for tasks of prediction of electric charges, however, the technique is still little explored in less aggregated consumption scenarios, and with greater levels of detail. In this work the ARTMAP Fuzzy network is applied in multi-step forecasting tasks of real electric loads with different levels of aggregation. Considering the impact of noise on predictors, especially in the generalization capacity of artificial neural networks, the singular spectrum analysis technique is applied in the noise removal task. The prediction results allowed to analyze the performance of the ARTMAP Fuzzy network, which was compared with other two predictors used as benchmark, namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and the multiLayer perceptron neural network. The noise removal allowed an improvement in the levels of network generalization, positively impacting its predictive capacity. / 1560734

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-02-20T22:47:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DarioGuedesMirandaDeAssuncao_DISSERT.pdf: 5531425 bytes, checksum: ce1be7a5114d5ab1a80f64312a354e13 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-02-24T21:16:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DarioGuedesMirandaDeAssuncao_DISSERT.pdf: 5531425 bytes, checksum: ce1be7a5114d5ab1a80f64312a354e13 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-24T21:16:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DarioGuedesMirandaDeAssuncao_DISSERT.pdf: 5531425 bytes, checksum: ce1be7a5114d5ab1a80f64312a354e13 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-23 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / A pesquisa e desenvolvimento de t?cnicas cada vez mais eficientes de estimula??o de reservat?rios de hidrocarbonetos, que j? n?o s?o economicamente vi?veis devido ? baixa permeabilidade relativa, atrav?s de faturamento hidr?ulico alavancaram os ?ndices de produ??o mundial nos ?ltimos anos. O monitoramento de eventos micross?smicos, gerados nesse ambiente de produ??o, pode fornecer informa??es importantes a respeito do reservat?rio. A aplica??o do monitoramento micross?smico, relacionado ? inje??o de fluidos (hidrofraturamento), est? sendo cada vez mais recorrente na ind?stria de petr?leo, devido ? capacidade destas informa??es auxiliarem no desenvolvimento do reservat?rio, na decis?o de posicionamento de novas inje??es de fluidos, localiza??o de novas perfura??es, etc. O desenvolvimento e aperfei?oamento de m?todos no monitoramento micross?smico ? uma importante alternativa de pesquisa para auxiliar o desenvolvimento de campos produtores, devido ? aus?ncia de m?todos que apresentem baixo custo e ent?o viabilize a sua utiliza??o em campos de baixa produ??o. Desta forma, propomos neste trabalho uma an?lise de viabilidade computacional e efici?ncia na utiliza??o da t?cnica SSA com poss?vel identificador de onda ?P?, para poss?vel utiliza??o em monitoramento de eventos micross?smicos em ambientes com opera??es de fraturamento hidr?ulico. O processamento computacional foi dividido em tr?s fases, duas com testes em dados sint?ticos e uma com aplica??o em dados reais de tiro de canhoneio. Na primeira fase de testes sint?ticos analisou-se os erros de posicionamento e erros de tempo de origem de um evento (com posi??o real em x=0, y=0 e z=-1km) com 3 e 8 receptores (geometria diferente do dado real), para diferentes dados e par?metros de entrada, por exemplo, dado sem ru?do, dado com ru?do (2, 5 ,10, 20, 30 e 40%), diferentes janelas de RPA/LPA, diferentes quantidades de receptores, etc. Na segunda fase de testes sint?ticos analisou-se os erros de posicionamento de um evento (com posi??o real em x=0, y=0 e z=-0,7km) com 3 e 12 receptores (geometria similar ao dado real), para um ?nico dado com ru?do aleat?rio de 40% e diferentes janelas de RPA/LPA. E na fase de aplica??o em dados reais (13 diferentes eventos posicionados em x=0, y=0 e Z=diferentes profundidades) as analises foram feitas com rela??o aos resultados de posicionamento de cada evento e os tempos de origem encontrados para cada um deles, utilizando uma ?nica janela RPA/LPA. / The research and development of techniques of stimulation of oil reservoirs, that are no longer economically viable due to the low relative permeability, through of hydraulic fracturing, leveraged world production rates in recent years. The monitoring microseismics events, generated in this production environment, can provide important information about the reservoir. The application of microseismic monitoring, related to the injection of fluids, is being increasingly recurrent in the oil industry due to the capacity of this information assist in the development of the reservoir, the placement decision of new injections of fluid, location of new perforations, among others. The development and improvement of methods in microseismic monitoring is an important alternative of search for help in the development of producing oil fields, due to lack of methods that have low cost and so makes possible its use in fields low production. Thus, we propose in this paper an analysis of the computational viability and efficient in the use of the technical SSA with possible P-wave identifier, for possible use in monitoring microseismic events in environments with hydraulic fracturing operations. The computational processing was divided into three phases, two with synthetic data tests and one with real data application of perforating shot (cannonade shot). In the first phase of synthetic tests were analyzed positioning errors and origin time errors of an event (with real position at x = 0, y = 0 and z = -1km) with 3 and 08 receptors (different geometry of the real data) for different data and input parameters, for example, data without noise, data with noise (2, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40%), different windows RPA/LPA, different amounts receptors, etc. In the second phase synthetic test were analyzed the positioning errors of an event (with real position x = 0, y = 0 and z = -0,7km) with 3 and 12 receptors (geometry similar to the real data), for only a data with random noise of 40% and different windows of RPA/LPA. And in the phase of real data test (13 different events positioned at x = 0, y = 0 and Z = different depths) analyzes were made with respect the results for event each positioning and origin times found for each event, using only one RPA/LPA window.

L'hétérochromatine, de nature compacte et répétitive, limite l’accès à l'ADN et fait de la réparation des DSBs un processus difficile que les cellules doivent surmonter afin de maintenir leur intégrité génomique. Pour y étudier la réparation des DSBs, nous avons conçu un système CRISPR / Cas9 dans lequel les DSB peuvent être efficacement et spécifiquement induites dans l'hétérochromatine de fibroblastes de souris NIH3T3. En développant un système CRISPR / Cas9 hautement spécifique et robuste pour cibler l'hétérochromatine péricentrique, nous avons montré que les DSB en G1 sont positionnellement stables et réparés par NHEJ. En S / G2, ils se déplacent vers la périphérie de ce domaine pour être réparés par HR. Ce processus de relocalisation dépend de la résection et de l'exclusion de RAD51 du domaine central de l'hétérochromatine. Si ces cassures ne se relocalisent pas, elles sont réparées dans le cœur du domaine de l'hétérochromatine par NHEJ ou SSA. D'autre part, les DSBs dans l'hétérochromatine centromérique activent NHEJ et HR tout au long du cycle cellulaire. Nos résultats révèlent le choix de la voie de réparation différentielle entre l'hétérochromatine centromérique et péricentrique, ce qui régule également la position des DSBs. / Heterochromatin is the tightly packed form of repetitive DNA, essential for cell viability. Its highly compacted and repetitive nature renders DSB repair a challenging process that cells need to overcome in order to maintain their genome integrity. Developing a highly specific and robust CRISPR/Cas9 system to target pericentric heterochromatin, we showed that DSBs in G1 are positionally stable and repaired by NHEJ. In S/G2, they relocate to the periphery of this domain to be repaired by HR. This relocation process is dependent of resection and RAD51 exclusion from the core domain of heterochromatin. If these breaks fail to relocate, they are repaired within heterochromatin by NHEJ or SSA. On the other hand, DSBs in centromeric heterochromatin activate both NHEJ and HR throughout the cell cycle. Our results reveal the differential repair pathway choice between centromeric and pericentric heterochromatin that also regulates the DSB position.

No description available.

Growth and development in the context of climate change and environmental challengesare issues of increasing importance in the economic debate. With higher levels of greenhousegases in the atmosphere, droughts and other forms of extreme weather are expected to increasein frequency. Some of the worst affected are people living in sub-Saharan African countries. However, there are literature showing that countries who diversify their production becomesmore resilient against negative shocks. This study aims to determine the relationship betweenprecipitation anomalies and GDP per capita growth under different levels of concentrationof the export portfolio, in order to understand what kind of diversification reduces economicrisks connected to precipitation. Precipitation anomalies, such as abnormally heavy rainfallor droughts, is seen as a good measurement for climate change, and can thus be treated aseconomic shocks. We are using data on export product shares and monthly precipitation todetermine whether the level of sectoral diversification in exports affects the influence precipitation anomalies have on GDP per capita growth. The effects are estimated using a two-stageleast squares model, only targeting countries in SSA for our estimations. The results show thatpositive weather anomalies correlate with lower levels of GDP per capita growth. But the samenegative trend cannot be seen for negative precipitation anomalies. The results also show thatthe level of diversification within exports does not have any significant effect on the influencethat precipitation anomalies have on GDP per capita growth.

This study investigates the relationship between official development assistance (ODA) and human development indicators (HDIs) in 49 sub-Saharan African countries over the period of 1995 to 2017 using 3-stage least squares (3SLS). The four key sub-classes of HDIs considered for this research include education, health, government and civic society, as well as environmental indicators. Of all these HDIs, the results of the analysis show that health aid is the most effective form of aid, significantly reducing the incidence of HIV, the infant mortality rate and the maternal mortality rate, as well as leading to improved life expectancy. Education aid has a significant effect on the progression to secondary school followed by adult literacy rates. Government and civil society aid significantly affects the ability of girls to access education at primary, secondary and tertiary levels while environmental aid is found to increase the carbon efficiency of production. Hence, this study demonstrates that aid is most effective on the health, education and environmental human development indicators.

Cervical cancer rates in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are amongst the highest in the world. The World Health Organization currently estimates that worldwide, cervical cancer will kill more than 443,000 women per year by 2030, of which 90% of deaths are predicted to occur in SSA. The Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine provides primary protection against the most common cancer-causing strains of HPV that are responsible for cervical cancer. Over the last five years, there has been a slow increase in the number of African countries that have introduced the HPV vaccine via demonstration and pilot projects, and a minority of African countries that have incorporated the HPV vaccine into their National Immunisation Programmes. As part of this systematic review, a literature review was conducted and revealed that research has been conducted on top-down barriers and facilitators to HPV vaccine uptake and have found that poor health system capabilities, inaccessibility to medical care, low cervical cancer screening levels, inadequate infrastructure, finances, and health worker training are significant systemic barriers to HPV vaccination success in SSA. Little research has been conducted on demand-side or end-user perspectives of, and decisions around, the HPV vaccine. In order to complement existing research, and inform current and future implementation approaches, this qualitative systematic review explored stakeholder understandings of the HPV vaccine in SSA. This review searched the following databases: Embase (via Scopus), Scopus, MEDLINE (via PubMed), PubMed, EBSCOhost, Academic Search Premier, Africa-Wide Information, CINAHL, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, SocINDEX, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials (CENTRAL) and found a total of 259 articles. Of these, 31 articles met the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were included in the review. Braun and Clarke’s six step process for conducting a thematic analysis was used for analysis and studies were assessed for quality using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist. Three major themes emerged from the thematic analysis: knowledge is intertwined with misinformation; fear shapes contradictory perceptions about the HPV vaccine; and social norms and gender dynamics are relevant factors in how stakeholders understand the HPV vaccine in SSA. This review iterates the importance of first working with communities to gauge understandings of the HPV vaccine, before trying to implement change through education, sensitization and behavior change.

No description available.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第24895号 / 工博第5175号 / 新制||工||1988(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 KIM Chul-Woo, 教授 杉浦 邦征, 教授 八木 知己 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM