Denna studie granskar aktieanalytikers arbetsmetodik, deras påverkan på aktiemarknaden samt deras upplevda yrkesproblematik. För att åskådliggöra detta har vi genomfört tio djupintervjuer med aktörer från dagens finansbransch. Fem analytiker från de större analyshusen samt fem experter från diverse relaterade finansområden har intervjuats. Målsättningen är att granska analytiker utifrån dessa tio respondenters olika perspektiv och därmed tydliggöra analytikers roll i det finansiella maskineriet. Detta uppnås genom att fokusera på tre delområden: Hur analytiker faktiskt praktiserar sitt yrke och vad för vetenskaplig förankring de har (1), vad de har för påverkan på aktiemarknaden (2) samt vilka svårigheter de upplever att yrket möter i dagsläget och en nära framtid (3). Studien påvisar att variablerna bakom aktievärderingarna är viktigare än värderingsverktyget i sig. Analytikers verktyg för analys är därför bristande vilket har sitt ursprung i företagsekonomins ofullständiga finansiella teorier. De aktörerna med störst påverkan på marknaden är de professionella och institutionella placerarna. Det framgår även att analytiker inte har någon större påverkan på marknaden, vilket var studiens utgångpunkt. Småsparare bör vara medvetna om dessa fakta och inte blint följa riktkurser eller rekommendationer. Slutligen kan studien påvisa att analytiker inte befinner sig i en helt oberoende ställning gentemot arbetsgivare, kunder och bolagen de analyserar. Att konstant värna om dessa relationer leder till direkta och indirekta agentkostnader som slutligen drabbar kunderna och analyshuset. / This paper examines analysts' methodology, their impact on the stock market and their perceived professional problems. To illustrate this, we have conducted ten interviews with profiles from today's financial industry. Five analysts from larger investment banks and five experts from various related financial areas were interviewed. The goal is to examine analysts from these ten respondents' perspectives and thereby clarify the analyst’s role in the financial machinery. This is achieved by focusing on three areas: How analysts actually practice their profession and what scientific basis they have (1), what their impact on the stock market is (2) and the difficulties they believe that the profession is facing today and in the near future (3). The paper shows that the variables behind set value of the stock are more important than the tools of how to set the value itself. The analysts’ tools for analyzing are therefore lacking which can be derived from the fact that the financial theories within the community of business administration often are incomplete. The profiles with the greatest impact on the market are the professional and institutional investors. Furthermore, the paper shows that analysts do not have a major influence on the market, which was the study's starting point. Small investors should be aware of these facts and not blindly follow target prices or recommendations. Finally, the study shows how analysts do not have an unbiased relationship towards their employers, clients or the companies they analyze. Constantly trying to preserve these relations leads to direct and indirect agency costs that ultimately affect the clients and investment banks.

Bakgrund: Affärspressen publicerar dagligen rekommendationer och riktkurser från aktieanalytiker och dess analyser kan anses ligga till grund för investeringsbeslut hos såväl privata som institutionella investerare. Aktieanalytikers förmåga att prognostisera aktiekurser är ett outforskat område med endast ett fåtal publicerade studier på variabeln riktkurs. Tidigare studier fokuserar på att utvärdera träffsäkerheten i prognoserna men få av dessa bidrar till förståelse kring vad som påverkar prognosfelens storlek. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att analysera aktieanalytikers förmåga att prognostisera framtida aktiekurser. Genomförande: Studiens deduktiva ansats gör att resultat från tidigare studier ligger till grund för formulering av forskningsfrågor och utformning av tänkbara påverkansfaktorer för träffsäkerhet. Träffsäkerheten i riktkurserna analyseras via regressionsanalys där det absoluta prognosfelet är beroende variabel medan de formulerade påverkansfaktorerna är förklarande variabler. Vidare studeras en eventuell närvaro av överoptimism i prognoserna genom att undersöka fördelningen av det relativa prognosfelet via T-test. Resultat: Aktieanalytikers riktkurser påverkas av flertalet faktorer, där ett bolags storlek och beta uppvisar tydligast samband med träffsäkerheten. Variablerna uppvisar ett positivt samband med träffsäkerheten i prognoserna. Indikationer återfinns på att aktieanalytiker inte agerar fullständigt rationellt och att psykologiska påverkansfaktorer kan förekomma. Köprekommendationer influeras av en överoptimism medan säljrekommendationer uppvisar en överdriven pessimism. / Background: On a daily basis, the business press publishes stock recommendations and earnings estimates that stock analysts’ produce. These recommendations can be viewed as an integral part of both private and institutional investors’ investment decisions. Stock analysts’ ability to predict stock prices is an unexplored area with only a few studies on the variable target price. Previous studies focus on evaluating the accuracy of the forecasts but few of them contribute to the understanding of which factors influence the size of the forecast errors. Aim: The aim of the thesis is to analyze stock analysts’ ability to predict future stock prices. Completion: A deductive approach is used which allows the formulation of research questions and the identification of possible influencing factors on accuracy to be derived from previous studies. The accuracy is analyzed using regression analysis, where the absolute forecast error is the dependent variable while the formulated influencing factors are used as explanatory variables. Furthermore an analysis of the relative forecast errors is conducted to examine whether overoptimism influences the forecasts. This is carried out by examining the distribution of the relative forecast errors using T-tests. Results: Stock analysts’ price targets are influenced by several of the examined factors. A company’s size and its beta value exhibit the strongest influence on target price accuracy. The variables display a positive relationship with the accuracy of the forecasts. The results indicate that stock analysts’ do not act completely rational and that psychological biases may affect the target prices. Buy recommendations are influenced by an overoptimism whereas sell recommendations show an exaggerated pessimism.

Bakgrund: För att förklara olika händelser på den finansiella marknaden använder sig många forskare av aktiemarknadspsykologi med bakgrund i att aktörerna är människor. Konsensus är aktieanalytikers sammanställda estimat som ska motsvara marknadens aggregerade, fundamentala förväntningar. Det faktum att aktieanalytiker är människor gör att även dessa influeras av psykologi, vilket i sin tur både påverkar konsensus, investerare och till slut även marknaden. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera och belysa vad som ligger bakom konsensusestimaten för att sedan kunna redogöra för hur aktörer på aktiemarknaden kan förhålla sig till detta. Fokus kommer att ligga på faktorer som, till skillnad från fundamentala och tekniska analyser, har sin utgångspunkt i aktiemarknadspsykologi. Metod: Med en kvalitativ ansats genomfördes intervjuer med tio olika aktieanalytiker. Intervjuerna ligger sedan till grund för analysen där den teoretiska referensramen bestående av aktiemarknadspsykologiska faktorer användes för att dra slutsatser. Slutsats: Resultatet visar på att konsensus inte fullt motsvarar aktieanalytikernas egentliga åsikter och att investerare och analytiker därför snarare bör förhålla sig till konsensus som en referenspunkt än som en riktlinje för investeringar. / Background: To explain certain events that transpires on the stock market a lot of scientists use behavioral finance. They use this due to the fact that the market participants are human after all. Consensus estimates is the compiled estimates of sell side analyst which is supposed to be equivalent to the markets fundamental expectations. The fact that sell side analysts are human infers that they also get influenced by psychology, which in turn affect consensus, investors and lastly the market. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze and shed light on the elements that affect consensus estimates to clarify how stock market participants can relate to them. The focus will be on elements that, unlike fundamental and technical analysis, originates from behavioral finance. Method: Ten different stock analysts have been interviewed with a qualitative research approach. The interviews then acted as a basis for the analysis where the theory, originating from behavioral finance, is used to come to a conclusion. Conclusion: In conclusion, the result exhibits proof that consensus estimates doesn’t, to a full extent, truly reflect the sell side analysts’ true beliefs. Investors and other stock analysts should therefore relate to consensus as a reference point rather than a guideline for investment decisions.

Este trabalho investiga a relação entre as revisões das projeções de lucro por ação e do seu preço-alvo, assim como das recomendações feitas pelos analistas de investimentos, especificamente os de ações, e o comportamento dos gestores de fundos de investimento. Para o desenvolvimento dessa pesquisa, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica das principais teorias que tratam da ideia de investimento, assim como de questões sobre a gestão dos fundos e discussões acerca dos motivos e impactos das informações emitidas pelos analistas. Analisando uma amostra que compreende a composição trimestral da carteira dos fundos de investimento classificados na categoria ações da ANBIMA, entre o terceiro trimestre de 2009 e o primeiro trimestre de 2014, a hipótese principal testada é a de que os gestores seguem as informações emitidas pelos analistas. Para tal análise foi aplicado um modelo econométrico, com o uso de dados em painel, para avaliar como as revisões das recomendações e das projeções de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito, sendo essse calculado a partir do preço-alvo estimado pelos analistas, influenciam a variação da participação trimestral dos ativos nas carteiras dos fundos de investimentos. Os resultados apontam que, na maior parte dos tipos de fundos, os gestores tendem a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as outras, sendo mais presente tal comportamento quando se tem um downgrade das revisões, embora aparente que em tipos específicos, a revisão do lucro por ação é a que influencia em maior intensidade o comportamento dos gestores. Ainda mais, gestores ativos, especificamente do tipo de fundo IBrX tendem a seguir tais recomendações de modo mais intenso que os gestores passivos de tal tipo. Nota-se também que a discordância das opinões dos analistas aparenta influenciar negativamente o comportamento dos gestores, ou seja, quanto mais discordância, menos o gestor tende a seguir o consenso das revisões, especificamente as de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito. Por fim, embora os gestores tendam a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as das projeções de lucro por ação e retorno implícito, são as revisões das projeções, quando seguidas, que aparentam gerar retornos positivos para os trades dos gestores. / This work assesses the relation between the revisions of the forecasts of earning per share and target price, as well as the recommendations made by the investments analysts, specifically the stocks analysts, and the trades of the manager of investment funds. To do so was done a literature review which approached the main theories of investment, even as, some aspects of the funds management and discussions about the reasons and impacts of the information issued by the analysts. Assessing one sample, which involves the quarterly composition of the portfolio of the investment funds classified in the category stocks, according ANBIMA, between the third quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2014, the main hypothesis tested is that the funds managers follow the information issued by the analysts. For this purpose, an econometric model using panel data was applied to assess how the revisions of the recommendations and the projections of earning per share and the implied returns, being this calculated from the target price estimated by the analysts, influence the variation of the participation of assets in the portfolio of the investiments funds between the quarters. The results show that, in the most part of kinds of funds, the managers tend to follow more the recommendations, being more present this behavior when there is a downgrade, although appears that in some kinds, the earning per share revision is that which influence with more intensity the manager\'s behavior. Moreover, active managers, specifically of IBrX funds, tend to follow the recommendation revisions with more intensity than the passive managers of this kind of fund. It\'s observable that the disagreement of opinions between analysts seems to influence negatively the managers\' behavior, this is, more disagreement, less the manager tends to follow the consensus of the revisions, specifically the earning per share and implied return revision. Lastly, although the managers tend to follow more the recommendation revisions than the projections of earning per share and the implied return, are the revisions of the projections, when followed, that appear to generate positive returns to the managers\' trades.

Este trabalho investiga a relação entre as revisões das projeções de lucro por ação e do seu preço-alvo, assim como das recomendações feitas pelos analistas de investimentos, especificamente os de ações, e o comportamento dos gestores de fundos de investimento. Para o desenvolvimento dessa pesquisa, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica das principais teorias que tratam da ideia de investimento, assim como de questões sobre a gestão dos fundos e discussões acerca dos motivos e impactos das informações emitidas pelos analistas. Analisando uma amostra que compreende a composição trimestral da carteira dos fundos de investimento classificados na categoria ações da ANBIMA, entre o terceiro trimestre de 2009 e o primeiro trimestre de 2014, a hipótese principal testada é a de que os gestores seguem as informações emitidas pelos analistas. Para tal análise foi aplicado um modelo econométrico, com o uso de dados em painel, para avaliar como as revisões das recomendações e das projeções de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito, sendo essse calculado a partir do preço-alvo estimado pelos analistas, influenciam a variação da participação trimestral dos ativos nas carteiras dos fundos de investimentos. Os resultados apontam que, na maior parte dos tipos de fundos, os gestores tendem a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as outras, sendo mais presente tal comportamento quando se tem um downgrade das revisões, embora aparente que em tipos específicos, a revisão do lucro por ação é a que influencia em maior intensidade o comportamento dos gestores. Ainda mais, gestores ativos, especificamente do tipo de fundo IBrX tendem a seguir tais recomendações de modo mais intenso que os gestores passivos de tal tipo. Nota-se também que a discordância das opinões dos analistas aparenta influenciar negativamente o comportamento dos gestores, ou seja, quanto mais discordância, menos o gestor tende a seguir o consenso das revisões, especificamente as de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito. Por fim, embora os gestores tendam a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as das projeções de lucro por ação e retorno implícito, são as revisões das projeções, quando seguidas, que aparentam gerar retornos positivos para os trades dos gestores. / This work assesses the relation between the revisions of the forecasts of earning per share and target price, as well as the recommendations made by the investments analysts, specifically the stocks analysts, and the trades of the manager of investment funds. To do so was done a literature review which approached the main theories of investment, even as, some aspects of the funds management and discussions about the reasons and impacts of the information issued by the analysts. Assessing one sample, which involves the quarterly composition of the portfolio of the investment funds classified in the category stocks, according ANBIMA, between the third quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2014, the main hypothesis tested is that the funds managers follow the information issued by the analysts. For this purpose, an econometric model using panel data was applied to assess how the revisions of the recommendations and the projections of earning per share and the implied returns, being this calculated from the target price estimated by the analysts, influence the variation of the participation of assets in the portfolio of the investiments funds between the quarters. The results show that, in the most part of kinds of funds, the managers tend to follow more the recommendations, being more present this behavior when there is a downgrade, although appears that in some kinds, the earning per share revision is that which influence with more intensity the manager\'s behavior. Moreover, active managers, specifically of IBrX funds, tend to follow the recommendation revisions with more intensity than the passive managers of this kind of fund. It\'s observable that the disagreement of opinions between analysts seems to influence negatively the managers\' behavior, this is, more disagreement, less the manager tends to follow the consensus of the revisions, specifically the earning per share and implied return revision. Lastly, although the managers tend to follow more the recommendation revisions than the projections of earning per share and the implied return, are the revisions of the projections, when followed, that appear to generate positive returns to the managers\' trades.