"Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Program Management from the Naval Postgraduate School, June 2009." / Advisor(s): Bondreau, Michael ; Simon, Cary. "June 2009." "Joint applied project"--Cover. Description based on title screen as viewed on July 10, 2009. DTIC Descriptors: Author(s) subject terms: Acquisition workforce, networks, flat hierarchy, flexible practices, diversity, global trends. Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-90). Also available in print.

Economic events may cause structural changes in markets. To know the effect of the economic event we should analyze the structural changes in the market demand and supply. The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the effect of selected economic events on market demand and supply using econometric models. Structural changes can be modeled according to the types of changes. For an abrupt and instantaneous break, a dummy variable model can be used. For a smooth and gradual movement, proxy variables which represent the event can be applied, if we know the variables. If we don‟t know the appropriate proxy variables, a smooth transition regression model can be employed. The BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy) outbreak in the U.S. in 2003 is assumed to make abrupt and instantaneous changes in Korean meat consumption. To analyze the effect on Korean meat consumption, the Korean demands of beef, pork, chicken, and U.S. beef are estimated using an LA/AIDS (Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System) model with the dummy variable specifying the time before and after the BSE. From the results we can confirm that food safety concerns caused by the BSE case changed Korean meat consumption structure. Korean beef and U.S. beef became less elastic, and pork and chicken got more elastic to budget. Korean beef became less price elastic, but pork and U.S. beef got more price elastic. The changes of U.S. natural gas supply caused by technology development and depletion in reserves are analyzed using a smooth transition regression model. From the results, we can confirm that the productivity improvement by technology development is greater than the labor cost increase by depletion, but not greater than the capital cost increase by depletion in mid-2000s. The effects of posting the winning bid in a repeated Vickrey auction are examined using a proxy variable. By applying an unobserved effect Tobit model to the experimental auction done by Corrigan and Rousu (2006) for a candy bar, we can confirm that the changes of bidding behavior are significant, especially when the winning bid is high. By extracting the bid affiliation effects, we showed that true willingness to pay can be estimated.

No description available.

Contract farming is an agreement between a farmer and a firm regarding the agricultural production. Studies have shown that contract farming can influence farmers in different ways. Positive aspects of contract farming is said to be that farmers get access to a bigger market, a secure source of income and valuable assistance from the companies that they have entered into a contract with. Negative aspects are foremost said to be that farmers may loose control over the production and feel that they do not have their independence left. Researchers also argue that contract farming can affect the structure within agriculture, which in many countries is dominated by family farm systems. Some therefore believe that contract farming could play a part in family farm systems changing or disappearing. This study applied a Marxist perspective and aimed to examine farmers and their experience of contract farming and how it might affect the structure within agriculture. An agricultural area in the southern parts of Sweden called Söderslätt was studied. The result showed that contract farming affected the farmers in various ways and that it in some terms can be a cause for changes within the structure of agriculture. Keywords: Söderslätt, contract farming, structural changes, family farm systems.

Η διαρθρωτική αλλαγή σε μια οικονομία σχετίζεται με την συστηματική έρευνα στις μεταβολές των απαιτήσεων εισροών, στην παραγωγή νέων προϊόντων και στο σχετικό μέγεθος των κλάδων μιας οικονομίας, σε μια συγκεκριμένη χρονική περίοδο. Αυτή η διαδικασία μπορεί να διερευνηθεί μέσα από την εξέταση του υποδείγματος Εισροών-Εκροών (το οποίο εκτός των άλλων απεικονίζει τις διακλαδικές συναλλαγές σε μια οικονομία), δίδοντας έτσι ένα συγκριτικό σταθερό πλαίσιο για τον προγραμματισμό και την ανάλυση της αναπτυξιακής πολιτικής. Οι όροι «διαρθρωτική» και «τεχνολογική» αλλαγή αλληλεπικαλύπτονται σε κάποια έκταση στην βιβλιογραφία που αφόρα την μέθοδο ανάλυσης Εισροών – Εκροών (Ε-Ε), εν μέρει εξαιτίας των παραμέτρων Ε-Ε σαν «τεχνολογικοί συντελεστές». Ο Carter (1970) αναφέρεται στην τεχνολογική αλλαγή σαν μια αντικατάσταση της διαδικασίας παραγωγής σε μια άλλη. Παράλληλα άλλοι ερευνητές ισχυρίζονται ότι η διαρθρωτική αλλαγή είναι ένας όρος πιο γενικός, αφού αναφέρεται σε χρονικές αλλαγές των αλληλεπιδράσεων μεταξύ των κλάδων οικονομικής δραστηριότητας (Jackson κ.α.,1990,-Μc Donald,1991). Η διαρθρωτική αλλαγή μπορεί να εξεταστεί μέσω της χρήσης διαφόρων δεικτών. Η αναγνώριση των μεθόδων οι οποίες εκτιμούν την κλαδική αλληλεξάρτηση είναι ένα σημαντικό θέμα για τον σχεδιασμό της ανάπτυξής. Ένας δημοφιλής και αποτελεσματικός τρόπος ανάλυσης των διαρθρωτικών αλλαγών είναι η χρήση της μεθόδου Ε-Ε, που απεικονίζει ενιαία την οικονομική διάρθρωση (Chenery, 1980,- Feldam κ.α., 1987,- Rose και Miernyk,1989) σε μια χώρα ή περιφέρεια. Αρχικά οι οικονομολόγοι εφάρμοσαν την μέθοδο αυτή σε εθνικό επίπεδο. Η ανάλυση αυτή εξασφαλίζει τα απαραίτητα εργαλεία για την αποτίμηση των κλάδων, περιλαμβάνοντας τις σχέσεις τους και με την υπόλοιπη οικονομία. Όπως αναφέρεται στη διεθνή βιβλιογραφία, η ανάλυση Ε-Ε θεωρείται από τις σημαντικότερες συνεισφορές στα οικονομικά του 20ου αιώνα (Baumol, 2000). Η Ελλάδα, μετά από μια εκτεταμένη περίοδο σύνδεσης με την Ευρωπαϊκή Οικονομική Κοινότητα (ΕΟΚ), έγινε το δέκατο πλήρες μέλος της την 1η Ιανουαρίου 1981. Αυτό το γεγονός είναι η αρχή μιας μεταβατικής περιόδου για την προσαρμογή της Ελληνικής οικονομίας στην οικονομία της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης (ΕΕ), διαδικασία η οποία βεβαίως απαιτεί αρκετές διαρθρωτικές αλλαγές. Σε αυτό το περιβάλλον αντιμετωπίζουμε σημαντικές μεταβολές, οι οποίες προκλήθηκαν και από μεταβολές σε όλους τους κλάδους παραγωγής και κατανάλωσης στο περιβάλλον της αγοράς. Οι αλλαγές αυτές αφορούν την τεχνολογία, τις προτιμήσεις του καταναλωτή και τις συνήθειες του, τις τιμές και το κόστος του προϊόντος, την νοοτροπία σχετικά με την προστασία και διατήρηση του περιβάλλοντος και τον ανταγωνισμό με τις άλλες χώρες της Κοινότητας. Στο πλαίσιο αυτό ο στόχος της συγκεκριμένης εργασίας είναι η ανάλυση των διαρθρωτικών αλλαγών για ένα ορισμένο χρονικό διάστημα στην ελληνική οικονομία. Για να επιτευχθεί η κατάλληλη συγκριτική ανάλυση, χρησιμοποιήθηκαν οι πίνακες Ε-Ε για τα έτη 1997-2005 και στην συνέχεια χρησιμοποιήθηκαν διάφοροι δείκτες για να διεκπεραιωθεί η διαρθρωτική ανάλυση. / -

The goal of this thesis is to create a methodology that helps companies in the sawmill industry to improve their efficiency. The purpose the case study is to create a more efficient production process by improving the structure of the work through improvements in leadership, commitment and motivation. The methodology is tested in the case company and together with the selected empirical data l generates a situation analysis in order to facilitate detection and observation of factors that are essential to study to improve the production. The results of the methodology used in the case company led to several factors considered important for improved efficiency. The most relevant success factors are better quality in communication and leadership processes. Recommendations for the case company to succeed with the implementation of the relevant factors, is to induce motivation and highlight the purpose of the change, and introduce more openness between managers and workers. This will lead to an improved structure that will benefit the critical improvement factors. / Målsättningen med arbetet är att skapa en metodik som skall hjälpa företag inom sågverksindustrin att förbättra effektiviteten. Syftet med fallstudien är att skapa så effektiva produktionsprocesser som möjligt genom att förbättra strukturen på arbetet genom förbättringsåtgärder inom ledarskap, engagemang och motivation. Metodiken testas på ett fallföretag och tillsammans med det insamlade empiriska materialet genereras en nulägesanalys som underlättar identifieringen av faktorer som är väsentliga att studera för att förbättra en produktion. Resultaten från den använda metodiken på fallföretaget ledde till flera faktorer som anses viktiga för en förbättrad effektivitet. Dem mest relevanta förbättringsfaktorerna är bättre kvalitet inom kommunikation och ledarskapsprocesser. Rekommendationer för att fallföretaget ska lyckas med implementeringen av de relevanta faktorerna är att framkalla motivation och lyfta fram syftet till att en förändring, samt införa mer öppenhet mellan chef och arbetare. Detta kommer leda till en förbättrad struktur som kommer att gynna de kritiska förbättringsfaktorerna.

<p>Many believe that the current application of modern logistics solutions in general and centralisation of distribution systems in particular is damaging from an environmental perspective. The reason for this claim is that when a distribution system is centralised, products need to be shipped over greater distances. This causes an increase in transport work, which in turn is believed to cause an increase in emissions. Further, the decision to centralise distribution can be characterised as a structural decision and earlier research has helped illustrate how such decisions have greater impact on the overall performance of a distribution system than decisions taken at subsequent levels (tactical and operative). The reason for this is that structural decisions help create new opportunities to make other logistical decisions that are beneficial for the performance of a distribution system, as measured in terms of costs and service.</p><p>It is also acknowledged that there is a lack of research illustrating the actual environmental effects of centralisation. This area is the theme of this thesis and the overall purpose is to describe and analyse how centralisation of a distribution system can affect the environment. This purpose has been divided into two research questions, where the first one reads:</p><p>- How does physical centralisation of a distribution system influence the environment?</p><p>This question aims at investigating what effect centralisation has on the amount of emissions that are caused by transport in a distribution system. One of the main advantages with a centralised distribution system is that emergency deliveries are expected to decrease. This type of transport is often performed by airfreight, which is a mode of transport that is regarded to cause the largest amount of environmental stress among the four most commonly used transport modes. The argument that is made is that even though centralisation causes an increase in transport work, this must not necessarily mean that emissions increase.</p><p>As indicated above, earlier studies on structural changes in distribution systems have shown that this type of decision creates new opportunities to make other decisions that are beneficial for the performance of a distribution system, albeit in terms of costs and service. The aim of the second research question is consequently to study this issue, but from an environmental perspective. This question therefore reads:</p><p>- How do structural decisions in logistics create new opportunities to improve on the environmental performance of a distribution system?</p><p>The results of the study show that it is not sufficient to only consider transport work and emergency deliveries when the environmental effect of a centralisation is to be evaluated. It has also been concluded that centralisation creates an opportunity to make improvements within the distribution system that can prove beneficial from an environmental perspective. In summary, three characteristics besides transport work and emergency deliveries were identified as being of importance when considering the environmental effects of a centralisation. These included centralised flow, modal change, and bargaining power.</p><p>This model (<em>see full pdf</em>) does not aim to include all characteristics that can be relevant in an environmental evaluation of a centralisation, but rather those that have been found significant in this study. However, the model helps illustrate that there are many aspects that need to be considered in such an evaluation and that depending on the characteristics of the distribution system at hand the results can vary quite extensively.</p>

Syftet med studien är att undersöka hur ungdomar (18-25-åringar) som är inskrivna på arbetsförmedlingen i en mindre ort upplever sin livssituation som arbetslös, vilka framtidsvisioner de har samt om det föreligger skillnader i dessa avseenden beroende på familjebakgrund. Studien baseras på sex kvalitativa intervjuer med ungdomar inskrivna på en arbetsförmedling i en mindre ort i Mellansverige som sedan transkriberats, meningskoncentrerats och slutligen analyserats främst med utgångspunkt i begreppen habitus, livsstil samt transaktionella behov. Resultaten i studien visar att respondenterna antingen vill flytta eller att förutsättningarna i orten gör att de känner sig tvingade till att göra det. Två olika mönster kan urskiljas i resultaten då respondenterna antingen tenderar att se flytten som ett medel för att få jobb eller tillgodogöra sig en utbildning, eller att de ser jobb eller utbildning som ett medel för att kunna flytta från orten. I analysen kopplar jag dessa två kategorier till begreppen habitus respektive livsstil och konstaterar att vissa ungdomar är mer habitusbetingade i sina handlingsmönster medan andra mer livsstilsbetingade. Jag konstaterar också att de transaktionella behoven i allmänhet kan uppfyllas med hjälp av en anställning. I diskussionen tas möjliga förklaringar till resultaten upp. En förklaring till de skilda handlingsmönstren som respondenterna visar på skulle kunna vara samhälleliga strukturer som hindrar respondenterna att göra vad man traditionellt har gjort. En annan förklaring skulle kunna vara ett motstånd mot reproducering av könsroller hos vissa respondenter. I diskussionsdelen vägs även resultaten i denna studie mot resultaten i tidigare forskning. / The purpose of this study is to investigate how young unemployed people (18-25 years old) in a small district experience their life as unemployed, what visions of the future they have and if there is any difference in these references depending on their social background. This study is based on six qualitative interviews with young people who are registered at the employment office in a small county in the middle of Sweden. The interviews were then transcribed and finally analyzed, mainly based on the concepts of habitus and lifestyle and the theory of transactional needs. The results in this study shows that the respondents either wants or feel themselves compelled to move from their district. I could see two different patterns in the results of the interviews; the respondents either tended to see the moving as a way to get a job or an education or they tended to see the job or the education as a way to move from their district. In the analyze I linked these two cathegories to the concepts of habitus and lifestyle and noted that some of the respondents were more prone to the concepts of habitus and some were more prone to the concepts of lifestyle. I also noted that the transactional needs in general can be met by an employment. The study concludes with a discussion in which possible explanations to the results are given. An explanation to the different patterns of acting could be social structures that prevent the interviewees to do what the traditionally would have done. Another explanation would be a resistance against reproduction of gender roles by some of the interviewees. The results are also compared with the results of earlier research.

The first chapter considers the asymptotic validity of bootstrap methods in a linear trend model with a change in slope at an unknown time. Perron and Zhu (2005) analyzed the consistency, rate of convergence, and limiting distributions of the parameter estimates in this model. I provide theoretical results for the asymptotic validity of bootstrap methods related to forming confidence intervals for the break date. I consider two bootstrap schemes, the residual (for white noise errors) and the sieve bootstrap (for correlated errors). Simulation experiments confirm that confidence intervals obtained using bootstrap methods perform well in terms of exact coverage rate. The second chapter extends Perron and Zhu's (2005) analysis to cover more general fractionally integrated errors with memory parameter d in the interval (-0.5,1.5). My theoretical results uncover some interesting features. For example, with a concurrent level shift allowed, the rate of convergence of the estimate of the break date is the same for all values of d in the interval (-0.5,0.5), a feature linked to the contamination induced by allowing a level shift. In all other cases, the rate of convergence is decreasing as d increases. I also provide results about the spurious break issue. The third chapter considers constructing confidence intervals for the break date in linear regressions. I compare the performance of various procedures in terms of the exact coverage rates and lengths: Bai's (1997) based on the asymptotic distribution with shrinking shifts, Elliott and Müller's (EM) (2007) based on inverting a test locally invariant to the magnitude of the change, Eo and Morley's (2013) based on inverting a likelihood ratio test, and various bootstrap procedures. In terms of coverage rates, EM's approach is the best but with a high cost in terms of length. With serially correlated errors and a change in intercept or in the coefficient of a regressor with a high signal-to-noise ratio, or when a lagged dependent variable is present, the length approaches the whole sample as the magnitude of the change increases. This drawback is not present for the other methods. Theoretical results are provided to explain the drawbacks of EM's method.

A indústria de carne de frango no Brasil cresceu e figura, desde 2004, como maior exportadora mundial desta carne, mesmo destinando menos de 30% do volume total produzido no país para o mercado internacional. No Brasil, a carne de frango é a mais consumida, desde 2006, entre as carnes. Neste contexto, é importante o entendimento de como a indústria evoluiu para atingir o patamar atual. Visando analisar a dinâmica da estrutura da indústria de carne de frango no Brasil entre os anos de 2000 e 2010, as Teorias da Organização Industrial e da Localização foram adotadas na pesquisa e utilizou-se o método quantitativo com dados secundários do conjunto de empresas responsáveis pelo abate e industrialização de frangos no Brasil. Para o período entre 2000 e 2010, analisou-se a mobilidade regional das operações de abate; a concentração de mercado foi mensurada, pelos índices Razão de Concentração e Herfindahl-Hirschman; e também se avaliou a mudança de posições das empresas pela análise de turnover. Para os índices de concentração e para o turnover adotou-se como critérios de análise o número de frangos abatidos e o volume de carne de frango exportada de cada empresa anualmente. Os resultados demonstram expansão da indústria de carne de frango e que seu direcionamento está associado à disponibilidade de insumos para alimentação dos frangos. Na região Centro-Oeste, observa-se o maior incremento de participação no abate de frangos no Brasil. Na análise das variáveis estruturais, constata-se que a concentração pelo índice HH é classificada como não concentrada no abate, com exceção de 2009, ano em que as duas maiores empresas responderam por mais de 44% dos frangos abatidos no Brasil. Já as exportações caracterizam-se como moderadamente concentradas. Ao longo do período analisado, ocorre um aumento da concentração no abate e uma moderada redução da concentração nas exportações. Porém, na segunda metade dos anos 2000, registra-se uma intensificação do aumento da concentração no abate de frangos e uma inversão da tendência de queda nas exportações. Como fator, parcial, de explicação para tal fenômeno tem-se os processos de fusões e aquisições, que se intensificaram nessa indústria na segunda metade dos anos 2000. Pela análise de turnover, verifica-se que há mudanças de posições entre as empresas e que estas, também, se intensificaram na segunda metade dos anos 2000. Evidenciam-se mudanças no padrão de consumo domiciliar no Brasil e na pauta das exportações, que indicam decréscimo do frango inteiro e acréscimo desta carne em cortes e de produtos elaborados. Constata-se que a indústria amplia seus mercados internacionais e tem-se a perspectiva de aumento da participação de produtos industrializados na pauta das exportações. Conclui-se que os movimentos ocorridos caracterizam mudanças na estrutura da indústria de carne de frango no Brasil. E nesta trajetória constata-se como importantes direcionadores as fusões e aquisições ocorridas e o aumento do tamanho do mercado. Espera-se, com esta pesquisa, contribuir com informações sobre a evolução recente da indústria, o que pode auxiliar nas proposições de políticas públicas e nas orientações das empresas que atuam, ou venham a entrar nesta indústria. / The Brazilian chicken meat industry has grown and stands out, since 2004, as world’s major exporter of this meat, even allocating less than 30% of the total amount produced in this country to international trade. In Brazil, chicken meat has been the most consumed within the meat types, since 2006. Given this perspective, it is important to understand how the industry has evolved to reach such status. Aiming to analyze the structural dynamics of chicken meat industry in Brazil in 2000 and 2010, Industrial Organization and Location theories were adopted , a quantitative method was used, with secondary data regarding poultry slaughtering and processing companies. Between 2000 and 2010, regional mobility of the slaughtering operations was analyzed; market concentration has been measured through Concentration Ratio and Herfindahl-Hirschman indexes. Changes in the ranking of companies were also assessed, through turnover analysis. In order to undertake the market concentration measurement and the turnover analysis, the number of slaughtered chickens and the volume of chicken meat exported by each company, annually, were adopted as analysis criterion. The results show an expansion of the chicken meat industry, which directioning is related to the availability of inputs for chicken feed. In the Central-West Region, one observes the highest increase in participation in chicken slaughtering in Brazil. When analyzing the structural variables, one notes that market concentration is characterized as not concentrated regarding slaughtering, the exception being 2009, when the two largest companies accounted for more than 44% of chicken slaughtered in Brazil. Concerning exports, they are characterized as moderately concentrated. Throughout the time period that has been analyzed, there is an increase in slaughtering concentration and a moderate reduction in exports concentration. However, in the second half of decade 2000-2010, one records intensification on the concentration increase in chicken slaughtering and an inversion on the decrease trend in exports. As a partial factor of explanation for such phenomenon, there are mergers and acquisition processes, intensified within this industry during the second half of the decade 2000-2010. By means of turnover analysis, one verifies that there are changes in the ranking of the companies, phenomenon that has also been during the second half of the decade 2000-2010. Changes in the domestic consumption patterns in Brazil, as well as in its exports portfolio are observed and indicate a decrease of the whole chicken figures and an increase of cuts and elaborated products. It is found that the industry expands its international markets and there is a perspective of increase in the participation of industrialized products in the exports portfolio. It can be concluded that movements occurred during the observed time period characterize changes in chicken meat industry, in Brazil. And in this evolution it can be seen as important drivers mergers and acquisitions and the increasing of size market. This research is expected to contribute with information on recent developments in the industry, by means of assistance for proposal for public policies, and orientations to companies currently operating in this industry and of those that could possibly enter this market.