臺灣近年來常常以發展觀光產業，來促進地方經濟發展，最明顯的政策便屬為臺灣政府於2008年開放陸客來臺以後，帶起許多陸客旅行團來臺旅遊的熱潮。同時在媒體渲染陸客強勁的消費力之下，使旅遊周邊產業都能受惠。但根據交通部觀光局統計資料顯示，陸客來臺人數成長率已大幅下降，但這股陸客來臺風潮卻已悄悄改變了臺灣旅遊業的體質。臺灣的觀光產業應朝向高品質服務業發展，才能同時保有觀光的品質與產值，否則在觀光人次太多的情況下，將影響國人旅遊的品質。 因此本研究利用2014年國人旅遊調查資料，利用決策樹方法根據縣市做分類，分別從旅遊者的背景、旅遊規劃、旅遊內容角度出發，檢視國人於臺灣縣市旅遊的特性與滿意程度，深入探討國人旅遊之型態與品質，藉此提供國內旅遊發展上一些建議，帶動在地旅遊，甚可藉由國民外交的「口碑」向外推廣、創造旅遊需求。

In my dissertation, I investigate the relationship between household consumption expenditures and transitory income shocks. In the first two essays, I pay particular attention to household expenditures in the aftermath of natural disasters, which are becoming more frequent and costly in the U.S. since 1980. Additionally, I study specialty farm producers' risk attitudes after an income shock due to natural disasters. Although the permanent income hypothesis predicts that households smooth consumption over their lifetimes, credit-constrained households may find consumption smoothing impractical. This dissertation brings forth evidence regarding heterogeneity in the effect of income shocks on household expenditures. First, I find that floods and hurricanes affect food-at-home (FAH) spending in different ways. The average 15-day decrease in FAH spending is about $2 in the 90 days after a flood and about $7 in the 30 days after a hurricane. In other words, floods have a prolonged effect and hurricanes have an immediate effect. I find that floods and hurricanes remain a threat to the FAH expenditures of vulnerable households, for instance, low-income households and households in coastal states. Second, Indiana specialty farm households reduce their monthly expenses of food and miscellaneous categories by about $119 and $280, respectively, after an income loss of 20%-32%. I also find that Indiana specialty producers are less willing to take financial risk after an income loss experience, i.e., they have a decreasing absolute risk aversion. Finally, in the third essay, I show that Australian households exhibit loss aversion in consumption expenditures which also means that they behave asymmetrically in their consumption response to income shocks. However, it is only working-age younger households that show asymmetric consumption behavior as opposed to the symmetric behavior of retirement-age households. The main message of these various findings is clear: after an income shock, the magnitude of change in consumption expenditures and the saliency of certain expenditure categories for adjustment are context- and population-dependent. Hence, income support policies and post-disaster relief programs may benefit from a better understanding of the consumption behavior of beneficiary population, to achieve maximum impact through better targeting.

No description available.

Les marchés financiers sont sujets quotidiennement à la diffusion de statistiques économiques ainsi que leurs prévisions par des institutions publiques et privées. Ces annonces sont prévues ou non prévues. Les annonces prévues sont organisées selon un calendrier connu à l’avance par tous les opérateurs. Ces annonces telles que les statistiques d'activité, d’exportation ou de sentiments, sont publiées une fois par mois par des agences spécialisées telles que Bloomberg. La diffusion d’une statistique économique ou financière est toujours précédée par la publication de sa prévision calculée comme la médiane de toutes les prévisions individuelles fournies par les agents. Cette médiane est un proxy de la vision commune des opérateurs et aide à la construction d'une représentation collective de l'environnement économique. Le premier chapitre de ma thèse a pour objectif d'analyser l'hétérogénéité dans la prévision des annonces macroéconomiques est testée grâce à des données mensuelles de prévisions issues d'enquêtes conduites par Bloomberg, sur une série d'indicateurs macroéconomiques. S’ensuit alors une deuxième problématique. Quels sont aux yeux des investisseurs, les critères qui permettent de considérer qu’une annonce est plus importante qu’une autre ? L’analyse du processus par lequel une information est incorporée dans les cours, nous a éclairés sur l’existence d’une forte rotation dans les statistiques considérées comme importantes (Market Mover indicators). Le deuxième chapitre tente donc de répondre à cette problématique. Dans un dernier chapitre je m’interroge sur la dynamique des prix post-publications d’annonces macroéconomiques et financières. Des connections sont réalisées entre les Jumps sur les cours des actifs et les annonces macroéconomiques, financières mais aussi imprévues. / Financial markets are subjected daily to the diffusion of economic indicators and their forecasts by public institutions and even private ones. These annoncements can be scheduled or unscheduled. The scheduled announcements are organized according to a specific calendar and known in advance by all operators. These news such as activity indicators, credit, export or sentiments’ surveys, are published monthly or quarterly by specialized agencies to all operators in real time. Our thesis contributes to diferent literatures and aims to thoroughly analyze the three phases of the diffusion process of new information on financial markets : anticipation of the announcement before its publication, interest that arouse its publication and impact of its publication on market dynamics. The aim of the first chapter is to investigate heterogeneity in macroeconomic news forecasts using disaggregate data of monthly expectation surveys conducted by Bloomberg on macroeconomic indicators from January 1999 to February 2013. The second chapter examines the impact of surprises associated with monthly macroeconomic news releases on Treasury-bond returns, by paying particular attention to the moment at which the information is published in the month. In the third chapter we examine the intraday effects of surprises from scheduled and unscheduled announcements on six major exchange rate returns (jumps) using an extension of the standard Tobit model with heteroskedastic and asymmetric errors.

L'objectif de cette thèse était d'anticiper les effets de l'Obligation de Débarquement (OD) mise en place en UE depuis début 2015 en Manche Orientale (MO). Pour accomplir ces objectifs, il a été prévu de : i) mieux comprendre la distribution spatiale saisonnière d'espèces commerciales à l'aide d'observations embarquées sur des navires commerciaux, ii) les comparer avec la distribution de l'effort de pêche à fine échelle des chalutiers de fonds (OTB), et iii) développer un modèle individu-centré de dynamique des flotilles, DSVM, à intégrer avec le modèle écosystémique OSMOSE pour simuler l'OD. L'utilité des données d'observations embarquées a été prouvée pour une majeure partie des espèces échantillonnées, en utilisant une validation par la bibliographie et un indicateur géostatique. Ensuite la comparaison de l'effort de pêche à fine échelle a fourni une amélioration de la quantification de l'effort de pêche effectif et mis en valeur l'importance de la seiche et du rouget barbet pour la distribution des OTB en MO. De plus, l'intensité de ciblage des OTB a été quantifiée en octobre à l'aide d'un nouvel indicateur, et démontré l'intérêt pour les mêmes espèces, mais aussi la contrainte d'un faible quota de cabillaud pour les pêcheurs. Les résultats du couplage OSMOSE-DSVM montrent que k'OD aurait des effets négatifs à court terme pour le revenu des pêcheurs, induits par le déplacement de l'effort de pêche afin d'éviter les dépassements de quota, mais serait profitable à moyen terme. Cependant, l'OD provoquerait une hausse de la pression de prédation produite par le cabillaud et le merlan sur les autres espèces, ce qui n'améliorerait pas l'état global de l'écosystème. / The objective of this thesis was to anticipate the effects if the EU Landing Obligation (LO) implemented since the beginning of 2015 in the Eastern English Channel (EEC). To achieve these objectives, it was planned to : i) better understand seasonal spatial distribution of commercial species using on-board commercial vessels observation data, ii) compare them with the final scale fishing effort distribution of EEC bottom otter trawlers (OTB), and iii) develop an individual-based model of fleet-dynamics, DSVM, to be integrated within the ecosystem model OSMOSE to simulate a LO. The usefulness of on-board observation data was proved for a main part of a species sample, using validation from the literature and a geostatistical indicator. Then the comparison of fine scale fishing effort provided an improvement of the quantification of effective fishing effort and emphasized the importance of cuttlefish and red mullet for the global distribution of EEC OTB. In addition, the targeting intensity of OTB was quantified in October using a newly-developed indicator, and demonstrated the attractiveness of the same species, but also the constraint of low cod quota for fishers. Results of the OSMOSE-DSVM coupling show that the LO would have short-term negative effects on fishers' revenue, induced by a large reallocation of their fishing effort to avoid quota over-shooting, but would be profitable in the medium-term. However, the LO would induce an increase of the predatory pressure operated by cod and withing on the other species, which would not improve the overall ecosystem health.

The thesis, entitled "Essays on macroeconometrics and short-term forecasting",<p>is composed of three chapters. The first two chapters are on nowcasting,<p>a topic that has received an increasing attention both among practitioners and<p>the academics especially in conjunction and in the aftermath of the 2008-2009<p>economic crisis. At the heart of the two chapters is the idea of exploiting the<p>information from data published at a higher frequency for obtaining early estimates<p>of the macroeconomic variable of interest. The models used to compute<p>the nowcasts are dynamic models conceived for handling in an efficient way<p>the characteristics of the data used in a real-time context, like the fact that due to the different frequencies and the non-synchronicity of the releases<p>the time series have in general missing data at the end of the sample. While<p>the first chapter uses a small model like a VAR for nowcasting Italian GDP,<p>the second one makes use of a dynamic factor model, more suitable to handle<p>medium-large data sets, for providing early estimates of the employment in<p>the euro area. The third chapter develops a topic only marginally touched<p>by the second chapter, i.e. the estimation of dynamic factor models on data characterized by block-structures.<p>The firrst chapter assesses the accuracy of the Italian GDP nowcasts based<p>on a small information set consisting of GDP itself, the industrial production<p>index and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. The task is carried out by using<p>real-time vintages of data in an out-of-sample exercise over rolling windows<p>of data. Beside using real-time data, the real-time setting of the exercise is<p>also guaranteed by updating the nowcasts according to the historical release calendar. The model used to compute the nowcasts is a mixed-frequency Vector<p>Autoregressive (VAR) model, cast in state-space form and estimated by<p>maximum likelihood. The results show that the model can provide quite accurate<p>early estimates of the Italian GDP growth rates not only with respect<p>to a naive benchmark but also with respect to a bridge model based on the<p>same information set and a mixed-frequency VAR with only GDP and the industrial production index.<p>The chapter also analyzes with some attention the role of the Economic Sentiment<p>Indicator, and of soft information in general. The comparison of our<p>mixed-frequency VAR with one with only GDP and the industrial production<p>index clearly shows that using soft information helps obtaining more accurate<p>early estimates. Evidence is also found that the advantage from using soft<p>information goes beyond its timeliness.<p>In the second chapter we focus on nowcasting the quarterly national account<p>employment of the euro area making use of both country-specific and<p>area wide information. The relevance of anticipating Eurostat estimates of<p>employment rests on the fact that, despite it represents an important macroeconomic<p>variable, euro area employment is measured at a relatively low frequency<p>(quarterly) and published with a considerable delay (approximately<p>two months and a half). Obtaining an early estimate of this variable is possible<p>thanks to the fact that several Member States publish employment data and<p>employment-related statistics in advance with respect to the Eurostat release<p>of the euro area employment. Data availability represents, nevertheless, a<p>major limit as country-level time series are in general non homogeneous, have<p>different starting periods and, in some cases, are very short. We construct a<p>data set of monthly and quarterly time series consisting of both aggregate and<p>country-level data on Quarterly National Account employment, employment<p>expectations from business surveys and Labour Force Survey employment and<p>unemployment. In order to perform a real time out-of-sample exercise simulating<p>the (pseudo) real-time availability of the data, we construct an artificial<p>calendar of data releases based on the effective calendar observed during the first quarter of 2012. The model used to compute the nowcasts is a dynamic<p>factor model allowing for mixed-frequency data, missing data at the beginning<p>of the sample and ragged edges typical of non synchronous data releases. Our<p>results show that using country-specific information as soon as it is available<p>allows to obtain reasonably accurate estimates of the employment of the euro<p>area about fifteen days before the end of the quarter.<p>We also look at the nowcasts of employment of the four largest Member<p>States. We find that (with the exception of France) augmenting the dynamic<p>factor model with country-specific factors provides better results than those<p>obtained with the model without country-specific factors.<p>The third chapter of the thesis deals with dynamic factor models on data<p>characterized by local cross-correlation due to the presence of block-structures.<p>The latter is modeled by introducing block-specific factors, i.e. factors that<p>are specific to blocks of time series. We propose an algorithm to estimate the model by (quasi) maximum likelihood and use it to run Monte Carlo<p>simulations to evaluate the effects of modeling or not the block-structure on<p>the estimates of common factors. We find two main results: first, that in finite samples modeling the block-structure, beside being interesting per se, can help<p>reducing the model miss-specification and getting more accurate estimates<p>of the common factors; second, that imposing a wrong block-structure or<p>imposing a block-structure when it is not present does not have negative<p>effects on the estimates of the common factors. These two results allow us<p>to conclude that it is always recommendable to model the block-structure<p>especially if the characteristics of the data suggest that there is one. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Landtagswahlergebnisse in der BRD werden von empirischen Wahlforschern häufig als aktuelle Stimmungsbarometer für die Bundespolitik interpretiert. Bei dieser Interpretation von Landtagswahlen als \"Bundestestwahlen\" wird jedoch häufig vernachlässigt, dass Landtagswahlen überwiegend auch Regionalwahlen sind und landestypischen Dynamiken folgen. Empirische Untersuchungen zu Bestimmungsfaktoren von Landtagswahlverhalten wurden in Deutschland bis dato entweder in Form von qualitativen Einzelfallanalysen oder als Aggregatdatenanalysen der amtlichen Wahlstatistiken durchgeführt. Eine direkte und vergleichende Quantifizierung der Effektstärken mit Survey-Daten wurde allerdings bislang nicht vorgenommen. Die vorliegende Studie wertet deshalb im Rahmen eines replikativen Surveys 17 Landtagswahlstudien aus. So können die Effektstärken der individuellen Bewertung der Bundes- versus der Landesparteien auf die Landtagswahlentscheidungen direkt verglichen werden. Als Fazit zeigt sich, dass in Westdeutschland die Beurteilung der Landesparteien einen stärkeren Einfluss auf die individuelle Landtagswahlentscheidung ausübt als die Beurteilung der Bundesparteien. In Ostdeutschland prägt dagegen bei Landtagswahlen die bundespolitische Dimension das Abstimmungsverhalten der Wähler stärker. Die Parteipolitikverflechtung zwischen Landes- und Bundesebene ist somit bei Landtagswahlen in Ostdeutschland erheblich stärker ausgeprägt als in den alten Bundesländern.:Einleitung; Theoretische Grundlagen der bundespolitischen Parteipolitikverflechtung bei Landtagswahlen; Empirischer Test der Parteipolitikverflechtung bei Landtagswahlen; Diskussion und Ausblick / Electoral studies often interpret German regional election results ("Landtagswahlen") as barometers of public opinion on federal governmental parties'' performance. However, while interpreting German regional elections as "test-elections" for the national parliament, it is often underemphasised that subnational elections often follow a unique regional dynamics. So far, empirical investigations on the determinants of German regional elections consist either in qualitative case studies or aggregate analyses of official statistics. A quantitative study of individual-level survey data, comparing directly the explanatory power of the federal versus the subnational level, is still lacking. Conducting a repeated survey design, we analyse data from 17 German regional election surveys. Thus, the effects of individual assessments of federal parties versus their subnational counterparts on subnational voting preferences can be directly compared. The conclusion of our analyses can be summarized as follows: In Western Germany, the valuation of subnational parties has a stronger impact on individual voting preferences in subnational elections than the valuation of the federal parties has. However, in Eastern Germany, the federal dimension has a comparatively stronger effect. Hence, the federal – regional ("Länder") party system linkage is clearly stronger in Eastern than in Western Germany.:Einleitung; Theoretische Grundlagen der bundespolitischen Parteipolitikverflechtung bei Landtagswahlen; Empirischer Test der Parteipolitikverflechtung bei Landtagswahlen; Diskussion und Ausblick

Problématique. Cette thèse examine comment la pression sociale — issue de la norme sociale que voter est un devoir civique — influence la décision d’aller voter ou non. La recherche sur la participation électorale est largement dominée par une vision de l’électeur comme étant un acteur individuel et rationnel. Ce faisant, trop peu d’attention a été portée spécifiquement au rôle du cercle social comme vecteur de pression sociale. De plus, une importante littérature en psychologie sociale démontre de la puissante influence des normes sociales et de la pression sociale qui s’en dégage sur les comportements. En science politique, les études expérimentales associées au projet Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) ont démontré l’effet causal de la pression sociale sur la participation électorale. Cependant, ces études ne nous aident pas à comprendre comment cette pression s’exerce dans la vie quotidienne, ni à en déterminer la fréquence, l’intensité, ou encore qui l’exerce et qui la subit. Quelques études observationnelles récentes traitent de certaines de ces questions et offrent de premiers éléments de réponse. Cette thèse s’inscrit dans cette littérature émergente, avec pour objectifs de mesurer, décrire et comprendre la pression sociale pour aller voter et son influence sur la participation électorale en dehors d’un contexte expérimental. Questions de recherche. Je cherche à répondre à quatre questions fondamentales sur la pression sociale pour aller voter : 1) Combien ? Quelle proportion de personnes rapportent de la pression sociale pour aller voter et combien de pression reçoivent-elles ? 2) Qui ? Qui émet la pression sociale pour aller voter et qui la subit ? 3) Comment ? Comment la pression sociale pour aller voter s’exerce-t-elle ? Par quel mécanisme influence-t-elle la décision de voter ou non ? 4) Quels effets ? Quel est l’effet de la pression sociale sur la participation électorale et comment est-ce que cet effet varie ? Méthodologie. La thèse se divise en trois chapitres empiriques sous forme d’articles scientifiques. Je présente dans le premier chapitre empirique un portrait descriptif et comparatif de la pression sociale à partir de données de 65 études électorales dans 11 pays, totalisant environ 287 000 répondants et plus de 872 000 mesures de pression sociale. Je me concentre dans les deux autres chapitres empiriques sur le rôle et l’influence des attentes de désapprobation de l’abstention sur la participation électorale. Je cherche dans le second chapitre empirique à comprendre les déterminants des attentes de désapprobation ainsi que l’intersection entre le devoir civique et la désapprobation. Pour ce faire, j’utilise les données d’un module de questions original administré dans l’Étude électorale autrichienne de 2019. Je m’intéresse dans le dernier article empirique au rôle de modération de la visibilité du comportement sur la désapprobation ; les gens devraient voter pour éviter la désapprobation des autres seulement s’ils pensent que les autres seront au courant de leur décision. Je mobilise pour ce chapitre les données d’un second module de questions original, administré cette fois dans l’Étude électorale canadienne de 2019. Résultats obtenus. Mes analyses confirment que la pression sociale pour aller voter est très présente dans la société. La pression sociale descriptive est plus fréquente que celle injonctive et ses effets sur la pression sociale sont plus stables. En fait, je trouve que la pression sociale injonctive influence la décision de voter dans la moitié des études. D’autre part, mes analyses montrent que la pression sociale est plus fréquente et plus forte lorsqu’elle provient de personnes plus proches dans notre réseau, comme la famille et le partenaire. Elle est également plus forte chez les personnes plus éduquées, plus riches, et plus âgées. Les personnes ayant un sens élevé du devoir civique rapportent également plus de pression sociale, mais ne semblent pas influencées par cette pression. Contrairement aux attentes théoriques, je ne trouve pas d’effet de modération de la visibilité du comportement sur l’influence de la désapprobation. Enfin, je trouve également que la pression sociale varie surtout sur le plan la mesure. Conclusions. Cette thèse confirme le rôle crucial de la pression sociale comme déterminant de la participation électorale. Elle contribue à notre compréhension générale des normes sociales, et de leur influence spécifique sur la participation. Ceci est important, car la participation électorale est l’un des piliers caractérisant un système démocratique en bonne santé. Mieux comprendre le mécanisme de pression sociale contribuera au développement d’outils de mobilisation efficaces, éthiques et non partisans pour pallier au déclin de la participation électorale au Canada et ailleurs dans le monde. Cette thèse a également des conséquences méthodologiques importantes pour la mesure de la pression sociale et avance de nouvelles théories pour comprendre la participation électorale et l’influence de la pression sociale. En somme, cette thèse pose de bases solides pour de futures recherches sur la pression sociale pour aller voter. / Background. This dissertation examines how social pressure — stemming from the social norm that voting is a civic duty — influences the decision to vote or not. Research on electoral participation is largely dominated by a view of the voter as an individual and a rational actor. Hence, too little attention has been paid specifically to the role of the social circle as a vector of social pressure. Moreover, a large body of literature in social psychology demonstrates the powerful influence of social norms and the social pressure they generate on behaviour. In political science, experimental studies associated with the Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) project have demonstrated the causal effect of social pressure on voter turnout. However, these studies do not help us to understand how social pressure is exerted in everyday life, to determine its frequency and intensity, or who exerts it and who receives it. Recent observational studies have sought to answer these questions and offer some initial answers. This thesis is part of this emerging literature, with the objectives of measuring, describing and understanding the social pressure to vote and its influence on electoral participation outside an experimental context. Research questions. I am seeking to answer four fundamental questions about the social pressure to vote: 1) How much? How many people report social pressure to vote, and how much pressure do they report? 2) Who? Who exerts social pressure to vote, and who experiences it? 3) How? How does the social pressure to vote mechanism work? How does it influence the decision to vote or not? 4) What effects? What are the effects of social pressure on voter turnout, and how do these effects vary? Methodology. The dissertation is divided into three empirical chapters in the form of scientific articles. In the first empirical chapter, I present a descriptive and comparative portrait of social pressure based on data from 65 electoral studies in 11 countries, totalling about 287,000 respondents and more than 872,000 measures of social pressure. In the other two empirical chapters, I focus on the role and influence of abstention disapproval expectations on electoral participation. In the second empirical chapter, I seek to understand the determinants of disapproval expectations and the intersection between civic duty and disapproval. To do so, I use data from an original question module administered in the 2019 Austrian Election Study. In the last empirical paper, I focus on the moderating role of behaviour visibility on disapproval; people should vote to avoid disapproval only if they believe that others will be aware of their decision to vote or not. For this chapter, I mobilize data from another original question module, this time administered in the 2019 Canadian Election Study. Results. My analyses confirm that social pressure to vote is quite prevalent in society. Descriptive social pressure is more frequent than injunctive pressure, and its effects on social pressure are more stable. In fact, I find that injunctive social pressure influences the decision to vote in about half the studies. My analyses also show that social pressure is more frequent and stronger from relationships in our social circle, such as family or the partner. Social pressure is stronger among people who are better educated, wealthier and older. Although people with a strong sense of civic duty also report more social pressure, they do not seem to be influenced by it. I find no moderating effect of behavioural visibility on the influence of disapproval contrary to theoretical expectations. At last, I also find that most of the variance in social pressure occurs at the measurement level. Conclusions. This dissertation confirms the crucial role of social pressure as a determinant of electoral participation. It contributes to our general understanding of social norms and their specific influence on voter turnout. This is important because electoral participation is one of the pillars of a healthy democratic system. A better understanding of the social pressure mechanism will help to develop effective, ethical and non-partisan mobilization tools to counter the decline in electoral participation in Canada and the world. This dissertation also has important methodological implications for measuring social pressure and suggests new theories for understanding voter turnout and the influences of social pressure. In sum, this thesis dissertation offers a solid foundation for future research on social pressure to vote.

This thesis examines the measurement, applications and properties of consumer inflation expectations in the context of eight European Union countries: France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden. The data proceed mainly from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and are qualitative in nature, therefore requiring quantification prior to use. This study first seeks to determine the optimal quantification methodology among a set of approaches spanning three traditions, associated with Carlson-Parkin (1975), Pesaran (1984) and Seitz (1988). The success of a quantification methodology is assessed on the basis of its ability to match quantitative expectations data and on its behaviour in an important economic application, namely the modelling of wages for our sample countries. The wage equation developed here draws on the theoretical background of the staggered contracts and the wage bargaining literature, and controls carefully for inflation expectations and institutional variables. The Carlson-Parkin variation proposed in Curto Millet (2004) was found to be the most satisfactory. This being established, the wage equations are used to test the hypothesis that the advent of EMU generated an increase in labour market flexibility, which would be reflected in structural breaks. The hypothesis is essentially rejected. Finally, the properties of inflation expectations and perceptions themselves are examined, especially in the context of EMU. Both the rational expectations and rational perceptions hypotheses are rejected. Popular expectations mechanisms, such as the "rule-of-thumb" model or Akerlof et al.'s (2000) "near-rationality hypothesis" are similarly unsupported. On the other hand, evidence is found for the transmission of expert forecasts to consumer expectations in the case of the UK, as in Carroll's (2003) model. The distribution of consumer expectations and perceptions is also considered, showing a tendency for gradual (as in Mankiw and Reis, 2002) but non-rational adjustment. Expectations formation is further shown to have important qualitative features.