由於技術分析之有效性一直為學者們所探討且備具爭議的議題，有部分學者認為技術分析無效，但實務上，技術分析在金融市場上的應用卻相當廣泛；此外，由於外匯市場為交易量龐大且眾多學者研究之重要金融市場，故本文回顧過去多項國內、外研究，並經由實地探訪台灣外匯市場上之投資人，針對仍未被研究，但實務上所採用之技術指標進行多項交易策略之模擬並探討其獲利性。 本文主要針對新臺幣兌換美元之匯市，探究將商品通道指標(Commodity Channel Indexes)及威廉指標(Williams Overbought/ Oversold Index)兩種技術分析指標應用於此外匯市場上之獲利情形，採用1993年1月1日至2012年12月28日，共計二十年，5279筆銀行間交易之新台幣兌美元之匯率日間資料，擷取其最高價、最低價及收盤價並透過程式交易進行回溯測試，並針對此兩種技術指標建構多種交易策略，歸納並分析其中可獲得超額報酬之技術策略，期能找出獲得最佳投資報酬以及提高交易的成功機率與獲利能力之法則。 藉由Matlab運算處理後，將此兩種技術指標應用於過去20年之歷史價格進行回溯測試，本實證研究發現：1. 採用威廉指標之策略普遍績效都較採用商品通道指標來的好，不僅在總報酬率的表現上比較好，採用威廉指標所執行的交易獲利的機率也必較高。2. 由於此兩技術指標應用在新台幣兌美元之外匯市場上可得的績效高於買賣策略應用於此市場之平均年化報酬率，故證實此兩種技術指標應用在新台幣兌美元的外匯市場上，均可獲得超額報酬，此兩技術指標在新台幣兌美元市場是有效的、可獲利的。 / It has long been a controversial question to scholars whether or not technical analysis is efficient. Although some scholars believe technical analysis is useless, it has been broadly used in the financial markets for a long time. As foreign exchange markets are one of the most important financial markets with huge trading volume in the world, this paper reviews many past literature and extracts trading strategies from some real investors in Taiwan’s foreign exchange markets. Additionally, this paper focuses on testing the trading performance of applying the technical indexes which have not been researched in the academic field but have often been utilized in the real exchange markets. This thesis mainly concentrates on the exchange market of New Taiwan Dollar against US dollar and examines the trading performance of utilizing two technical indexes which have been used but not been researched in foreign exchange markets : Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Williams Overbought/Oversold Index (WMS). The dataset of this paper is from January 1st, 1993 to December 28th, 2012, an overall of 20 years and 5279 times of daily NTD/USD exchange rates between banks. To complete the back-testing, this research utilizes the highest, lowest and close price from those materials and analyzes the technical strategies which obtain excess profits. By generalizing the results of those trading strategies, investors can find the best trading rules and increase the returns from applying these two technical indexes to foreign exchange market. The results of this research are as follows: 1. WMS’s performances are chiefly superior to the CCI’s performances. Not only the total profit rates of technical strategies from WMS are higher than the total profit rates of trading rules from CCI, but also the rates of profits on WMS always demonstrate a better result than the rates of profits on CCI. 2. Both of these two technical indicators can produce excess profits. Compared to the average annual return of buy-and-hold strategy in this market, both of the two technical indexes conduct a better performance. As a result, these two technical indexes are effective in NTD/USD market.

Tiriamajame darbe nagrinėjama techninės analizės metodų pelningumas bei patikimumas, jų praktinė nauda ir veikimo principai mažesnėse akcijų biržose (Vilniaus, Rygos, Talino). Gautų rezultatų palyginimui į tyrimą įtraukiama S&P500 akcijų indeksas. Pagrindinis tyrimo tikslas išnagrinėti du techninės analizės metodus - Santykinio stiprumo indeksą ir Slankiųjų vidurkių metodą, praktiškai juos panaudojant aukščiau paminėtose akcijų biržose, ištirti generuojamų pirkimo – pardavimo signalų patikimumą. Fundamentalios analizės atveju yra nagrinėjama Lietuvos komercinių bankų teikiamų konkrečių įmonių akcijų apžvalgų-rekomendacijų, patikimumas bei praktinė nauda. Pirmoje darbo dalyje aprašoma efektyvios rinkos teorijos prasmė (pamatinė techninės ir fundamentalios analizės teorija), kartu paliečiant pagrindinius fundamentalios ir techninės analizės principus. Plačiau nagrinėjami pasaulyje atlikti techninės analizės tyrimai, gauti jų rezultatai. Antroje darbo dalyje pateikiama metodologija kaip buvo atliktas techninės analizės tyrimas su Baltijos šalių ir JAV akcijų indeksais, nubrėžiamos pagrindinės tyrimo ribos. Trečioje tyrimo dalyje pateikiami rezultatai. Didžiausias metinis pelningumas buvo gautas remiantis Slankiųjų vidurkių metodu (50/200 su OMXV akcijų indeksu) – 24,44 proc., kai tuo tarpu „pirk ir laikyk“ strategijos gautas pelningumas – 22,68 proc. po mokesčių. RSI indekso metodas geriausiai pasiteisino su S&P500 akcijų indeksu. Šio metodo metinė grąža siekė 2,15 proc., o... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The profitability and reliability of technical analysis methods is the main theme of this work. The practical value of these methods and main rules of operation are analyzed in smaller markets (Vilnius, Ryga and Tallin) and also in comparison with S&P 500 index. The main purpose of this study is to practically test couple of technical analysis methods (Relative Strength Index – RSI and Dual Moving Average Crossover - DMAC) by applying them in markets mentioned above, explore the signals for buying and selling. The fundamental analysis is evaluated while analyzing the reliability and practical benefits of recommendations provided by the commercial banks of Lithuania. The meaning of efficient market theory (it’s the most basic theory for technical and fundamental analysis) is described in literature analysis part. Also, the main rules of fundamental and technical analysis are described there. All the methodology of the research with Baltic and USA indexes is provided in the second part of the work. The third part is filled with results of the research. The best annual after tax gain providing method was DMAC (Dual Moving Average Crossover) (50/200 with OMXV share index) with 22,44% gain for the shareholder, while “buy and keep” strategy provided only 22,68%. RSI (Relative Strength Index) worked best with S&P500 index. The annual odd of this method was 2,15%, while “buy and keep” strategy was only 0,087. DMAC (20/100) also worked best while analyzing the truthfulness of... [to full text]

本文應用遺傳規劃交易程式來檢驗八個國家的股票指數和外匯巿場的表現，採用移動視窗的方法，測試三組獨立的期間，重新檢驗較早期的研究結果，並繼續延申探討，包括交易報酬與交易行為。實證結果顯示，不論在股票還是外匯巿場，若訓練期間的資料選擇不當，遺傳規劃的獲利表現會不理想。資料形態不但會影響遺傳規劃交易程式的獲利性，同時也決定了程式本身的一些觀察特性。我們另外分析了交易程式的複雜度、演化時間、交易頻率和一致性。交易程式的複雜度和演化時間有正向的相關性，但複雜度和報酬、以及演化時間和報酬之間都只有很弱的關係。這些發現可以讓我們更了解遺傳規劃演化交易策略的過程，有助往後更進一步的研究。

This diploma thesis was aimed at analysing the investment strategies on the American stock market. The main aim was to evaluate the market efficiency, to analyse various strategies and to select the most appropriate one according to the assessed form of the market efficiency. Firstly, the weak-form efficiency was validated by correlation and runs tests. Subsequently, the methods of technical and fundamental analysis were applied. The final part is focused on creating the investment portfolio, which is also considered the most suitable strategy.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 Eduardo Menescal Lustosa Longo.pdf.jpg: 10145 bytes, checksum: b065ece0a6050c28545e0c2004a42402 (MD5) Eduardo Menescal Lustosa Longo.pdf.txt: 40329 bytes, checksum: 1026ba29309ee769eab96eae93bebd92 (MD5) Eduardo Menescal Lustosa Longo.pdf: 273765 bytes, checksum: c3f0204a9f073bb4276db2a68130c0cb (MD5) license.txt: 4886 bytes, checksum: a7c9cfe8632065c9656e1d827d849400 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-01-29T00:00:00Z / In this dissertation, we assess the application of pairs trading strategy in the Brazilian stock market. Differently from other papers about the same theme, we built synthetic asset from a linear relationship between stock prices. Accordingly to Burgeois and Minko (2005), we applied the Johansen methodology to identify stock pairs to be evaluated. After identifying cointegrated stock pairs, in order to filter out nonstationary synthetic assets, we did the DF-GLS and KPSS tests and removed those with unit root in the time series. Thereafter, we simulate the strategy (backtesting) in the selected pairs and in order to find the best results parameters, we optimized the results using different formation periods, trading periods and entry, exit and stop-loss parameters. To assure the most close to reality backtesting, we included in the results the brokerage, exchange and stock loan fees. In addition we added one day lag to trade after an order has triggered. / Neste trabalho, verificamos viabilidade de aplicação da estratégia de pairs trading no mercado acionário brasileiro. Diferentemente de outros estudos do mesmo tema, construímos ativos sintéticos a partir de uma combinação linear de preços de ações. Conforme Burgeois e Minko (2005), utilizamos a metodologia de Johansen para a formação dos pares a serem testados. Após a identificação de pares cointegrados, para assegurar a estacionaridade do ativo sintético contruído a partir da relação linear de preços das ações, utilizamos os testes DF-GLS e KPSS e filtramos àqueles que apresentavam raiz unitária em sua série de tempo. A seguir, simulamos a estratégia (backtesting) com os pares selecionados e para encontrar os melhores parâmetros, testamos diferentes períodos de formação dos pares, de operação e de parâmetros de entrada, saída e stop-loss. A fim de realizarmos os testes de forma mais realista possível, incluímos os custos de corretagem, de emolumentos e de aluguel, além de adicionar um lag de um dia para a realização das operações

The aim of the thesis was assess the usefulness of different methods of technical and fundamental analysis in the trading of securities on the stock exchange. Choose the appropriate investment strategy for a particular industry.First has been performed a calculation of the theory efficient markets. For this purpose has been used two tests, correlation tests and runs test. The theory of market efficiency was demonstrated. But still has been performed the calculation of active strategies.Then was made the technical analysis. We used moving averages and oscillators, RSI, ROC and momentum. Based on these tests, we can´t select an appropriate investment strategy.Final test was carry out with using fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis consist from testing addiction of revenue at coefficient alfa. Sector services shown 0. And at other sectors amount to possitive values. In last of all I advised pasive strategy.

The subject of this thesis is a technical analysis as a specific method for prediction of the future trend of equities. The topic is introduced by an analysis of investment opportunities in markets in the Czech Republic and in the world, by a comparison of analytical methods. The main part consists of exploration and description of selected indicators of technical analysis. On their basis business strategies are created and reflected in automated trading systems. These strategies are subject of testing on historical data and of subsequent optimization to maximize potential profitability. The results of testing are summarized and evaluated in the final phase of this thesis that also analyzes advantages and shortcomings of the technical analysis and gives an idea for further investigation.

This thesis is dedicated to the stock markets issue. Its main aim was to assess the effectiveness of the stock market and choose an appropriate investment strategy. To this purpose, the 5 industries of U.S. stock market were chosen, which served as a data base for all applied methods. The thesis presents the results of correlation and runs tests verifying the weak form of market efficiency, the results of fundamental analysis and of active strategies simulation as well. The final part is focused on creating of investment portfolio, which was chosen as the most appropriate investment strategy of the refenrence data set.

The purpose of this thesis was to analyze selected sectors of the stock exchange through methods of technical and fundamental analysis and to find the most appropriate investment strategy based on the results. At first were subjected to corell and runs tests. These tests should have proven or disproven the existence of weak form of efficiency. In the fundamental analysis was chosen the method of comparation of alpha coefficient and average monthly revenues. The technical analysis tested of moving averages and monitoring the signals using oscillators. The last step was a comparison of investment methods and strategies, found investment strategy and made a investment porfolio.

In this work was evaluated the effectiveness of artificial neural networks in trading on the stock markets. The subject of the work was the process of optimizing parameters of artificial neural networks, the resulting predictive efficiency was determined on the basis of the application being optimized parameters of neural networks.