Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1401888 bytes, checksum: b42ad9ebc33bc9b9e8aa504e4476c14e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-04-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This work deepens the discussion in the Technical Analysis field, aligning it premises to the theoretical framework of Behavioral Finance. In this purpose, this paper aimed to make, for the period between the years of 2007 and 2008, an empirical study of the brazilian stock market in the light of Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance, as well as verifying the performance of technical index as auxiliary instrument for the decision taking. This way, the work is divided in two parts. In the first part, adopting the complementarity hypothesis of behavioral-technique approach in the process of analysis and taking of decision in the stock market, is aimed to establish a relation between Technical Analysis (Dow Theory and Elliott Waves Theory) and Behavioral Finance assumptions in the interpretation of the subprime crisis in the Brazilian stock market, through a documentary research with referring information of the years 2007 and 2008, crisis development period. The results had evidenced the utility of these theories, not only for the analysis of the subprime crisis consequences, as, also, for the examination of financial market agent s behavior in a historical perspective of larger reach. In the second part, adopting the hypothesis that the technical index are capable to assist the investors in the process of decision taking, had been refined the performances of the Exponential Moving Average, Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, Relative Force Index, Stochastic and Directional System, using as base, Brazilian s stock market data referring to the year of 2007. The research results demonstrated that the Assertiveness (A) of the purchase signals is superior to the Assertiveness (A) of the sales signals the results had demonstrated as well, the uselessness of Directional System (DS) as beeper of the market s predominant trend. / Este trabalho aprofunda a discussão no campo de estudos da Análise Técnica, alinhando suas premissas ao arcabouço teórico das Finanças Comportamentais. Neste intuito buscou-se realizar, para o período compreendido entre os anos de 2007 e 2008, um estudo empírico do mercado brasileiro de ações à luz da Análise Técnica e das Finanças Comportamentais, bem como verificar o desempenho de indicadores técnicos como instrumento auxiliar para a tomada de decisão. Desta forma, o trabalho encontra-se dividido em duas partes. Na primeira parte, adotando a hipótese de complementaridade das abordagens técnica-comportamental no processo de análise e tomada de decisão no mercado de ações, busca-se estabelecer uma relação entre os pressupostos da Análise Técnica (Teoria Dow e Teoria da Ondas de Elliott) e das Finanças Comportamentais na interpretação da crise subprime no mercado de ações brasileiro, através de uma pesquisa documental com informações referentes aos anos de 2007 e 2008, período de desenvolvimento da crise. Os resultados evidenciaram a utilidade destas teorias, não só para a análise dos reflexos da crise subprime, como, também, para o exame do comportamento dos agentes do mercado financeiro numa perspectiva histórica de maior alcance. Na segunda parte, adotando a hipótese de que os indicadores técnicos são capazes de auxiliar os investidores no processo de tomada de decisão, foram apurados os desempenhos dos indicadores Média Móvel Exponencial, Convergência/Divergência da Média Móvel, Índice de Força Relativa, Estocástico e Sistema Direcional, tomando como base dados do mercado de ações brasileiro referentes ao ano de 2007. Os resultados encontrados demonstraram que a Assertividade (A) dos sinais de compra é superior à Assertividade (A) dos sinais de venda, bem como apontaram a inutilidade do Sistema Direcional (SD) enquanto sinalizador da tendência predominante do mercado.

Partindo dos conceitos estabelecidos pela Hipótese dos Mercados Eficientes (HME), a qual questiona a validade da Análise Gráfica, e considerando as críticas feitas à HME pelos defensores das assim chamadas Finanças Comportamentais, e outros, este estudo procurou detectar a existência de uma relação entre os sinais gráficos observados no dia-a-dia do mercado de ações brasileiro e as tendências que lhes sucedem, durante um período de 8 anos, para um número de papéis. Os resultados obtidos neste trabalho evidenciam a existência de tal relação, sugerindo a validade da utilização da Análise Gráfica como instrumento para a previsão de preços no mercado de ações brasileiro, no período considerado. / Based on the principles established by the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which argues that the Technical Analysis is of no value in order to predict future prices of securities, and considering the criticism to the EMH by the advocates of the so called Behavioral Finance, and others, this work tried to detect the existence of a relationship between the graphic signals observed day by day in the Brazilian stock market and the trends which happen after these signals, within a period of 8 years, for a number of securities. The results obtained from this study offer evidence of the existence of such relationship, suggesting the validity of the Technical Analysis as an instrument to predict security prices in the Brazilian stock market within that period.

Submitted by Neusa Fagundes (neusa.fagundes@unioeste.br) on 2018-03-08T14:52:34Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Michel_Marques2017.pdf: 2867420 bytes, checksum: 53caf71d521e72787fb224c798d1dcde (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-08T14:52:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Michel_Marques2017.pdf: 2867420 bytes, checksum: 53caf71d521e72787fb224c798d1dcde (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-11 / This dissertation aims to apply a scenario simulation model into the stock market, by using fuzzy logic in fundamentalist indicators to define the asset to be invested and technical analysis to determine the best timing to invest. The chosen model of scenario simulation foresees 5 steps, the first one being previously achieved by Rojo’s (2014) study and the others being applied throughout the fourth chapter or this research. Particularly, during the application of the second step of the model, presented over chapter 4.1, the fuzzy logic was applied as the competitive intelligence tool in order to support the analysis of 5 fundamental indicators. Therefore, as for the objective, this research is exploratory, with a quantitative and qualitative approach, and the research universe is compound of 10 shares that belong to the civil construction subsector and are part of the Small Cap index. Regarding to the temporal perspective, it was adopted the period between 18/11/09 and 27/08/17 to proceed with fundamental analysis and the period between 28/08/17 and 24/11/17 to apply technical analysis. During the application of fundamentalist analysis, the data were retrieved from Economática basis, meanwhile for the application of technical analysis the information was extracted from the Protrader web software that is provided by some brokers at no cost. At the end of the research, the general objective was achieved and it was presented a practical and scientifically grounded proposal that may be used by other investors, who may adapt several research points in order to attend their different profiles, as exemplified in the final considerations of this paper. One of the main limitations of this research arises from the fact that the present proposal could not be evaluated in terms of obtained results, mainly due to the time needed to perform such evaluation. / Essa dissertação visa aplicar um modelo de simulação de cenários no mercado de ações, utilizando lógica fuzzy em indicadores fundamentalistas para definir o(s) ativo(s) a ser(em) investido(s) e análise técnica para determinar o melhor momento de investir. O modelo utilizado para a simulação de cenários prevê 5 etapas, sendo que a primeira delas já fora realizada previamente no estudo de Rojo (2014) e as demais são aplicadas ao longo do quarto capítulo desse trabalho. Em particular durante a aplicação do segundo nível do modelo, discutido ao longo do capítulo 4.1, recorreu-se à lógica fuzzy como ferramenta de inteligência competitiva que visa auxiliar na análise dos 5 indicadores fundamentalistas. Dessa forma, essa pesquisa tem objetivo de ser exploratória, com abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa e o universo da pesquisa é composto de 10 ações pertencentes ao subsetor de construção civil e que fazem parte do índice Small Cap. Quanto à perspectiva temporal, foi considerado o período entre 18/11/09 e 27/08/17 para proceder com a análise fundamentalista e o período entre 28/08/17 e 24/11/17 para aplicação da análise técnica. Durante a aplicação da análise fundamentalista os dados foram extraídos da base Economática, enquanto que para aplicação da análise técnica foi utilizado as informações disponíveis no software Protrader Web que é fornecido gratuitamente por algumas corretoras. Ao final do trabalho, o objetivo geral foi alcançado e foi apresentado uma proposta prática e cientificamente fundamentada que pode ser reaplicada por outros investidores, sendo que esses podem adaptar diversos pontos da pesquisa de forma a atender seus diferentes perfis, conforme exemplificado nas considerações finais do trabalho. Uma das principais limitações da pesquisa decorre do fato que a presente proposta não pôde ser avaliada em função dos resultados obtidos, devido principalmente ao tempo necessário para fazer tal avaliação.

The goal of this master's thesis is to evaluate the successfulness of the strategies' portfolio and of trading and trending indicators, which are parts of the portfolio, through this evaluation. The theoretical part concerns with the key principles of the foreign exchange market which the portfolio is created for. After that, the individual technical indicators, which are used in the analytical part of the thesis, are analyzed in detail. Then in the following part, the development process of automated trading systems in case of the genetic algorithms' application is defined. Individual generated trading systems are described in the next segment separately. Their descriptions are followed by evaluation of outcomes of testing on historical data and of robustness' tests. Afterwards, the correlations between individual strategies are mentioned. The thesis concludes by efficiency evaluation of strategies' portfolio via backtest results and paper testing.

På 1980-talet handlade en grupp, som kallades för The Turtle Traders, med två trendföljande handelsstrategier helt baserade på teknisk analys på ett stort antal finansmarknader. De två handelsstrategierna byggde på mekaniska regler för köp- respektive säljbeslut och riskhantering, men även regler för vilka marknader som var tillåtna att handla på. Gruppen var mycket framgångsrik under flera år och medlemmarnas avkastningar översteg marknadernas avkastningar med råge. Den svaga varianten av den effektiva marknadshypotesen säger att detta ska vara omöjligt på effektiva marknader. På en effektiv marknad är det enligt hypotesen istället bättre att följa en buy-and-hold strategi. Hur kommer det sig att The Turtle Traders lyckades? Var det bara tur att de två trendföljande strategierna, som genererade köp- och säljbesluten, gav väldigt höga avkastningar under några år på 1980-talet? Eller är inte marknaderna effektiva? Inom forskningen råder det idag en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen och huruvida marknaderna är effektiva. Olika vetenskapliga studier presenterar tester som både stöder och förkastar hypotesen. Syftet med det här examensarbetet är att visa huruvida de två trendföljande strategierna fortfarande är vinstgivande och därmed användbara strategier på dagens finansmarknader. Syftet är också att jämföra de två strategierna med buy-and-hold strategin på olika marknaderna och därmed bidra med ytterligare insikter till den numera alltmer ifrågasättande diskussionen kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen, med speciellt fokus på den svaga varianten. För att få fram vilka avkastningar de två trendföljande strategierna ger på dagens marknader konstrueras inom ramen för detta examensarbete ett datorprogram som simulerar de köp- och säljbeslut som skulle tas med hjälp av de mekaniska regler som de två trendföljande strategierna bygger på. Undersökningen i examensarbetet ger, precis som många andra undersökningar, en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen. Hälften av de finansmarknader som undersöks tycks vara ineffektiva och hälften effektiva, enligt den svaga varianten av hypotesen. Undersökningen visar även att de två trendföljande strategierna inte är så pass vinstgivande att de kan rekommenderas att använda på dagens finansmarknader. / During the 1980s a group called The Turtle Traders used two trend following trading strategies, based on technical analysis, to trade a large number of financial markets. The two trading strategies used mechanical rules to make buy and sell decisions and to manage risk. The rules also specified which markets to trade. The group was very successful during several years in the 1980s and the returns the members of the group generated, using the two trading strategies, widely surpassed the returns of the markets. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis states that this should be impossible on markets that are efficient. On efficient markets it is instead better to follow a buy-and-hold strategy. How come that The Turtle Traders succeeded? Was is just luck that the two trend following strategies, that generated the buy and sell decisions, resulted in such high returns during a few years in the 1980s? Or are the markets inefficient? Current research gives an unclear picture regarding the efficient market hypothesis and whether or not the markets are efficient. Different studies present results that both support and reject the hypothesis. The purpose of this bachelor thesis is to show whether or not the two trend following strategies still are profitable and therefor useful strategies on the financial markets of today. The purpose is also to compare the two strategies with the buy-and-hold strategy on different markets and in this way contribute with more insights to the ongoing and nowadays often increasingly questioning discussion regarding the efficient market hypothesis, with special focus on the weak form of the hypothesis. To get the returns of the two trend following strategies on the financial markets of today a computer program is constructed as part of this bachelor thesis. This computer program simulates the buy and sell decisions that would have been taken by the mechanical rules the two trend following strategies are built upon. The study done in this bachelor thesis gives, just as many other studies, an unclear picture of the efficient market hypothesis. Half of the markets that are studied in this thesis seem to be inefficient and half seem to be efficient, according to the weak form of the hypothesis. The study also shows that none of the two trend following strategies are profitable enough that they can be recommended to be used on the financial markets of today.

本研究針對台股期貨與現貨價差、成交量與技術指標融合之期貨交易策略進行獲利分析，以台股期貨與現貨的價差為主體，融合傳統技術指標和量價關係作為進場買賣台股期貨的訊號與指標，採用資料為2001年至2016年加權指數與台指期貨一分鐘資料，經過實證研究後發現，正價差放空與逆價差做多其績效表現優於正價差做多與逆價差放空，這與坊間的使用方法大為不同，另外經過實證結果，我們可以得知，若要以量價關係作為交易策略與指標，長期下來成交量增加做多與成交量減少放空績效較佳，若要以均線作為交易策略與指標，長期下來指數在均線之上做多與指數在均線之下放空績效較佳，也經由實證結果得知，價差策略可以藉由價差濾網與考量除權息因素進行調整，使價差策略績效表現更為突出，另一方面，也實證出價差策略融合成交量形成的新策略，績效表現優於價差策略融合均線形成的策略，本研究最後將價差策略融合成交量形成的新策略，考慮了價差濾網與除權息因素進行改良，並且與大盤績效進行比較，實證結果得知價差策略融合成交量作為的交易策略，績效表現可以擊敗大盤，我們最後將資料區分為兩個時間區間，將價差策略融合成交量的策略進行穩健性檢定，發現在兩個不同時間區間下，策略的績效無明顯差異，因此我們可以說此策略長期下來具有穩定性，這有利於未來進行交易。 / This study focus on profit analysis of futures trading strategy with stock price spread, quantity and technical indicators in Taiwan. With the price spread between the stock index and the futures as main topic, we fusion traditional technical analysis indicators and the relationship of trading volume and price as our signal and indicator to setup a futures trading strategy. Our research data use one-minute data frequency of Taiwan weighted stock index and Taiwan index futures from 2001 to 2016 as analysis period. The empirical result shows that to short sale if bull spread is occurred and to going long if bear spread shows up have better performance than its opposite activity, which is different from the method people use in general. This study also finds that if we attempt to utilize the relationship of trading volume and price as trading strategy and indicator, going long if trading volume increase and to short sale if trading volume decrease will work better in long run period. If we are going to use the moving average as trading strategy and indicators, that we go long for price above the moving average of the stock index and short sale for price below the moving average of the stock will more proper in long run period. Empirical results also demostrate that through spread filter and ex-dividend factor consideration spread strategy can be adjusted accordingly so that spread strategy performance can be more prominent. On the other hand, this study also proves that the performance of new strategy, formed through integration of spread strategy and trading volume strategy, is better than the integration of spread strategy and moving average strategy. Finally, this study integrates the spread strategy and trading volume strategy to formed new strategy, taking into account the improvement of the spread filter and the ex-dividend factor, then compares it with the market performance. The results show that the spread strategy integration with trading volume as a trading strategy and performance indicators can beat the market. We first divide the data into two cycles, then we perfom robustness test to the integration of spread strategy and trading volume strategy. We find out that under both cycles the strategy shows similar result. Thus, we can conclude that this strategy is stabile in long run and would be beneficial in future trading.

The goal of the thesis is to evaluate the degree of efficiency of the particular markets and to apply the methods of fundamental and technical analysis on them in order to assess their efficiency in terms of profitablity. The thesis analyses the degree of long-term memory of the particular commodities and stock indices via Hurst coefficient. Afterwards fundamental and technical methods are applied to the market with the highest degree of long-term memory, which is the feeder cattle market. Indidivual methods from both disciplines are being applied at first, after wich a combnation of both is appleid as well. The result is the discovery, whether combining the two approaches leads to a higher profitability of the trading strategy. At the end the effect of transacton costs is also evalauted and a final conclusion is made regarding the profit potential of both methods for the case of individual Czech investor.

This master's thesis deals with stock market of the Czech Republic under financial crisis conditions. It is divided into a theoretical and a practical part. The theoretical part describes a stock price, most significant stock bubbles and fundamental, technical and psychological analysis. The practical part of this thesis is dedicated to an up-to-date stock valuation of three representative stock companies quoted on Prague Stock Exchange by using the fundamental analysis. The technical analysis is applied as an additional approach. The main target of this thesis is to verify whether the current Czech stock market can not be designated as a stock bubble any more in contrast to a situation before the financial crisis.

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze investment options into wheat, corn and rice futures throughout different time horizons. Mostly we use daily closing prices for the last fifteen years. General knowledge of the field in context of nowadays is required to perform such an analysis. To achieve our goals we use technical analysis, time series analysis and we discuss the fundaments of price movements. Contribution of this thesis can be summed as presenting the basic tools of technical analysis in real world, presenting the fundamentals of price movements in one place and practical application of time series analysis on futures prices. By doing so we can confirm that random walk thesis is not unsubstantial but cannot be generalized for all instruments and periods of capital market.

This graduation theses provides on the basis of an analysis fundamental and technical investment recommendation regarding shares of ČEZ. In determining the internal value of shares are used dividend discount models, profit models and FCFE model. By comparing this value with the current share price is determined whether the stock is profitable investment or not. Technical analysis with utilization graphical methods and technical indicators are able to predict when the market occurs a situation in which an advantageous sale or purchase of share is.