Prices in financial markets are primarily driven by the interaction of risk and time. The returns to financial assets over long time horizons are primarily driven by fundamental news regarding their promised cash flows. In contrast, short-run price variation is associated with a large degree of predictable, transient investor trading behavior unrelated to fundamental prospects. The quantity of long-run risk directly affects economic well-being, and its magnitude has varied significantly over the past century. The theoretical model presented here shows some success in quantifying the impact of news about future risks on asset prices. In particular, some investing strategies that appear to offer anomalously large returns are associated with high exposures to future long-run risks. The historical returns to these portfolios are partly a result of investors’ distaste for assets whose worth declines when uncertainty increases. The financial sector is tasked with pricing these risks in a way that properly allocates investment resources. Over the past thirty years, this sector has grown much more rapidly than the economy as a whole. As a result, asset prices appear to be more informative. However, the new information relates to short-term uncertainty, not long-run risk. This type of high-frequency information is unlikely to affect real investment in a way that would benefit broader economic growth.

AbstractThe dynamic environment means that organizations always faces new challenges. There are various factors which could affect the process of change thus the purpose of this investigation is to research into the key values of organizational changes. We have done an in-depth research about a planned and ongoing process of change in the organization HEM. The aim is to investigate how knowledge and learning are spread among the staff in the company before and during changes. Also further investigation has been made to study the communication between management and employees through the changes. This report includes seven individuals with different working positions within the organization. Based on our research questions we have conducted interviews with each one of the participants individually. The results showed different views among the respondents about how communication is spread within the organization through a change. The results also illustrated that a change could be perceived differently with relation to the position and role in the company. Furthermore, it is possible to connect the ongoing communication in the company and the involvement of the employees during an organizational change. / Förändringar ställer organisationen inför nya utmaningar, och olika faktorer kan tänkas påverka förändringsprocessen på olika sätt. Syftet med den här undersökningen är att studera vilka inomorganisatoriska förhållanden eller faktorer som kan vara betydelsefulla i samband med förändringsprocesser, men även vilken betydelse kunskaper om tidigare förändringar kan ha inför och under förändringsprocessen. Vi har vidare avgränsat oss med denna undersökning genom att studera en planerad och pågående förändringsprocess på organisationen HEM. En av de frågor vi ställer oss är hur kunskapen och lärandet sprids ut bland personalen inför och under den aktuella förändringsprocessen, och vidare hur kommunikationen mellan ledning och medarbetare fungerar under förändringsprocesser. Undersökningen innefattar sju individer med utspridda positioner inom organisationen. Utifrån våra frågeställningar och de teman vi delat upp undersökningen i utförde vi intervjuer med denna grupp individer. Resultaten visade på delade uppfattningar bland respondenterna om hur kommunikationen i organisationen sprids ut under förändringsprocesser. Resultatet uttrycker även att tidsperspektivet och hur denna uppfattas också kan härledas till position och roll i förändringsprocessen, med andra ord påverkas alltså tidsperspektivet av kommunikationen. Vidare går kommunikationen under förändringsprocessen att koppla till hur delaktiga alla inom organisationen känner sig i samband med förändringsprocesser. / förändringsarbete

This dissertation contains three applications of time series in finance and macroeconomics. The first essay compares the cumulative returns for stocks and bonds at investment horizons from one to ten years by using a test for spatial dominance. Spatial dominance is a variation of stochastic dominance for nonstationary variables. The results suggest that for investment horizons of one year, bonds spatially dominate stocks. In contrast, for investment horizons longer than five years, stocks spatially dominate bonds. This result is consistent with the advice given by practitioners to long term investors of allocating a higher proportion of stocks in their portfolio decisions. The second essay presents a method that allows testing of whether or not an asset stochastically dominates the other when the time horizon is uncertain. In this setup, the expected utility depends on the distribution of the value of the asset as well as the distribution of the time horizon, which together form the weighted spatial distribution. The testing procedure is based on the Kolmogorov Smirnov distance between the empirical weighted spatial distributions. An empirical application is presented assuming that the event of exit time follows an independent Poisson process with constant intensity. The last essay applies a dynamic factor model to generate out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. Factor models are useful to summarize the information contained in large datasets. We evaluate the role of using a wide range of macroeconomic variables to forecast inflation, with particular interest on the importance of using the consumer price index disaggregated data. The data set contains 54 macroeconomic series and 243 consumer price subcomponents from 1988 to 2008. The results indicate that factor models outperform the benchmark autoregressive model at horizons of one, two, four and six quarters. It is also found that using disaggregated price data improves forecasting performance.

The asymptotic scaling properties of conservative algorithms for parallel discrete-event simulations (e.g.: for spatially distributed parallel simulations of dynamic Monte Carlo for spin systems) of one-dimensional systems with system size $L$ is studied. The particular case studied here is the case of one or two elements assigned to each processor element. The previously studied case of one element per processor is reviewed, and the two elements per processor case is presented. The key concept is a simulated time horizon which is an evolving non equilibrium surface, specific for the particular algorithm. It is shown that the flat-substrate initial condition is responsible for the existence of an initial non-scaling regime. Various methods to deal with this non-scaling regime are documented, both the final successful method and unsuccessful attempts. The width of this time horizon relates to desynchronization in the system of processors. Universal properties of the conservative time horizon are derived by constructing a distribution of the interface width at saturation.

The rapid escalation in plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and their uncoordinated charging patterns pose several challenges in distribution system operation. Some of the undesirable effects include overloading of transformers, rapid voltage fluctuations, and over/under voltages. While this compromises the consumer power quality, it also puts on extra stress on the local voltage control devices. These challenges demand a well-coordinated and power network-aware charging approach for PEVs in a community. This paper formulates a realtime electric vehicle charging scheduling problem as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). The problem is to be solved by an aggregator that provides charging services in a residential community. The proposed formulation maximizes the profit of the aggregator, enhancing the utilization of available infrastructure. With prior knowledge of load demand and hourly electricity prices, the algorithm uses a moving time horizon optimization approach, allowing an unknown number of arriving vehicles. In this realistic setting, the proposed framework ensures that power system constraints are satisfied and guarantees the desired PEV charging level within the stipulated time. Numerical tests on an IEEE 13-node feeder system demonstrate the computational and performance superiority of the proposed MILP technique. / M.S. / There is an enhanced rate of global warming due to emissions and increased usage of fossil fuels in the transportation sector. As a feasible solution, electrification of transportation has become a necessary step towards an environment-friendly future. The escalation in plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has increased the impact on loading and voltage fluctuations in the distribution grid due to uncoordinated charging. This puts on extra stress on the grid system and compromises the system performance. As a measure to control the vehicle charging in a residential setup, a real-time optimal charging scheduling algorithm is developed which is implemented at the neighborhood level. To increase the charging performance with the limited available resources, an aggregator is introduced. The charging profit is maximized as the PEV charging problem is solved optimally by the aggregator. This facilitates the reduction in night-time grid congestion and maximization of number of PEVs getting charged with limited dependency on communication to avoid long delays in charging control. The proposed technique guarantees the complete charging of the selected PEVs in the stipulated time while considering the power grid operational constraints. It also reduces the impact of peak load demand by flattening the base load demand curve. To demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed mixed integer linear programming optimization algorithm, numerical tests for an IEEE 13 node feeder are performed. The results are discussed to give an outlook on the balance between system and user requirements by meeting the demand of the PEV users.

Malgré la multiplicité des méthodes d'estimation de la VaR, elles souffrent d'une faiblesse fondamentale. En effet, elles ne font aucune distinction entre l'information captée à basse fréquence et celle captée à haute fréquence. Ce qui revient à  supposer de façon implicite que l'information contenue dans les données historiques a la même importance quel que soit l'horizon temporel de l'investisseur c'est-à-dire sa fréquence de trading (intra-journalière, journalière, hebdomadaire, mensuelle,..). Mais, accepter une telle hypothèse revient à supposer que les marchés financiers sont homogènes. Ce qui est contraire à la réalité empirique. En effet, les marchés financiers sont caractérisés par une grande hétérogénéité d'acteurs. L'objet de notre thèse est d'apporter une contribution à l'estimation de la VaR basée sur la décomposition de la volatilité dans le domaine des fréquences. Ce qui nous permet de mette en évidence l'influence de l'hétérogénéité des horizons temporels des acteurs des marchés financiers sur l'estimation de la Value at Risk. Pour cela,nous faisons appel à un outil statistique susceptible de nous procurer de l'information temporelle sur la volatilité et de l'information fréquentielle sur la fréquence de trading des différents acteurs des marchés financiers: l'approche temps-fréquence de la transformée en ondelettes. / Although multiplicity of VaR estimate approaches,they suffer from a fundamental weakness.They don't make any distiction between informations captured in a high frequency and in a low frequency manner.It is an implicit assumption of homogeneity of fiancial markets in contrast to empirical facts. In our thesis, we try to construct a VaR model based on volatility decomposition in the frequency domain.It enables us to show how the time horizons heterogeneity of financial markets participants could influence value at risk estimates.We use a statistical tool able to give us temporal information about volatility and frequencial information about trading frequencies of market participants:the time frequency approach of wavelet transform.

How to integrate sustainability into business activities is discussed within corporations more than ever today. With increasing sustainability requirements set by governments and non-governmental organizations, corporations in all industries are facing challenges to readjust their businesses. The emission intense stainless steel industry is no exception. Through a case study of Corporation X, this thesis aims to investigate how Facility Y works with sustainability aspects and what could be done to enhance the level of environmental sustainability. It is done by first exploring what sustainability is. When a common understanding of sustainability hasbeen established, it is explored how a corporation can be identified in terms of their sustainability commitment and ongoing projects. Lastly, an investigation of how a corporation could enhance the level of substantiality is conducted through four pillars to fulfill the bottom line. We found that Corporation X is somewhat proactive and have a minimization approach towardenvironmental sustainability. In other words, they are considered to aim at ‘being less bad’ rather than being ‘more good’ in their sustainability work. Corporation X thus face challenges with increasing requirements and should enhance their level of sustainability to remain competitive. With an analysis of the four pillars, we concluded that Facility Y should prioritize improvements within the pillar of measurement and disclosure since they lack in terms of reliable carbon dioxide emission metrics on a product level. We further argue that the four pillars are intertwined but should be prioritized differently based on the prerequisites of thecorporation at hand. The recommended prioritization at Facility Y on measurement will thuschange when there are reliable carbon dioxide emission measurements. A reassessment of what is most important must be done.

Could shareholder primacy, with its assumed short-termist practices, have had its day when it comes to managerial activity centered on creating corporate value? Many business and opinion leaders appear to take this position, not least Jack Welch who famously declared 'shareholder primacy is the dumbest idea in the world!' Indeed, in a post-Crash economy has a wider stakeholder focus with a longer-term outlook superseded any business notions of shareholder primacy and wealth maximization? This research examines these possibilities through a consideration of the narrative companies produce, such as annual reports. From this corpus material, an assessment is made of whether UK managers' perceptions about corporate value generation changed over the period covering the worldwide financial crisis, with respect to their relative favouring of shareholders and stakeholders. The corpus of narrative material used is visualized as a conceptual space in which a conversation reflecting perceptual bias to the generation of corporate value occurs. To explore such corpuses, in order to compare narratives at points either side of the 2008 Crash, a new methodology was devised called narrative staining. Hence, a detection and visual mapping over the period was made possible of managers' changing perceptions concerning primacy (shareholder or stakeholder orientation) with its mediation by termism (a short or long-term bias). Termism is also originally conceived as part of a larger temporal category, which includes a sense of urgency to act (urgent versus non-urgent) that is similarly examined. The investigation reveals that over time perceptual change about value creation happened, though in unanticipated ways. Companies pre-Crash were often short-term stakeholder oriented then moved post-Crash to a long-term shareholder orientation. A focus for this study was the corporate domain, consisting of a selection of FT250 companies. However, managerial perceptions about corporate value creation are influenced not simply by the conversation of the corporate domain but rather by a multi-actor conversation taking place throughout the business environment. To comprehend this effect, the research mines further corpuses that comprise the UK's regulatory domain (hard and soft law), the press (Financial Times and other newspapers), and relevant peripheral stakeholder organizations (including the Confederation of British Industry, the Institute of Directors, and the Trades Union Congress). These organizations demonstrated more complex, unforeseen, perceptual effects as the financial crisis proceeded with many aligning according to their political or business agenda, which also impacted any sense of urgency to act they had. There appears to be no previous attempt at an extensive and multivariate analysis of this nature. And the findings challenge prevalent characterizations of shareholder and stakeholder behaviour. Moreover, the research shows that utilizing a wide set of stakeholder corpuses acts a viable proxy for broader financial perspectives amongst UK organizations. The technique of narrative staining therefore provides insights, hitherto inaccessible, for assessing and consolidating large-scale perceptual bias regarding value creation across the economy. The technique also has significant potential for other applications.

The rapid emergence of broadband, or always-on Internet, during the course of the last decade, has increased the importance of the so- called information society in urban and industrialized societies world- wide. Liberalized information and communications technology (ICT) market forces worldwide have however failed to supply these services to rural and low-income regions resulting in the so-called digital divide. One financial tool, adopted by many developing nations to drive broadband investments in underserved areas, is the universal service fund (USF), a public fund mainly levying its resources from ICT market players. USFs have previously been used to fund telecom networks but with the growing importance of broadband, structural and regulatory discrepancies are preventing USFs from adequately supporting broadband investments. Currently, little up-to-date academic theory exists within this field; thus, this thesis serves to outline principles that policy-makers and regulators need to consider when designing or reforming universal service fund mechanisms. The research is based on a series of qualitative country case studies investigating policy, procedural, and executional aspects related to USFs and rural broadband. Publicly available material has been complemented with interviews of stakeholders from various levels to establish a holistic empirical base upon which conclusions have been drawn. The conclusions outline principles governing public involvement in USFs, roles played by various stakeholders in the broadband ecosystem, and strategies for rural broadband network deployment. / Framfarten av bredband under det senaste årtiondet har ökat vikten av det så kallade informationssamhället i de industrialiserade och urbaniserade samhällen. Marknadskrafterna inom den liberaliserade informations- och kommunikationsindustrin har dock misslyckats med att göra dess tjänster tillgängliga till glesbefolkade och låginkomstregioner, vilket har lett till en digital klyfta. Ett finansiellt hjälpmedel som många utvecklingsländer har anammat för att påskynda bredbandsinvesteringar i regioner med få bredbandsuppkopplingar är fonder för samhällsomfattande tjänster (USF), som är en offentlig fond vilken får den största delen av sitt kapital genom en pålaga på intäkterna från aktörer inom informations- och kommunikationsindustrin. USF:er har tidigare använts för att finansiera telekomnätverk, men i takt med att bredbandets ökande genomslag i samhället har strukturella och regleringsmässiga problem med USF:erna uppdagats vilka hindrar dem från att effektivt stödja bredbandsinvesteringar. För närvarande finns lite akademisk teori på området, och sålunda syftar denna uppsatts till att tillhandahålla principer vilka beslutsfattare och regulatorer bör efterfölja vid utformning eller reformering av mekanismer för samhällsomfattande tjänster för bredband. Arbetet baseras på en serie kvalitativa fallstudier av länder med policy, procedurella och verkställande aspekter kopplade till USF:er i områden med få bredbandsuppkopplingar i fokus. Material tillgängligt för allmänheten har kompletterats med intervjuer av intressenter från olika organisations- och samhällsnivåer för att skapa en heltäckande empiri på området från vilka slutsatser har dragits. Slutsatserna innehåller principer som rör offentlig inblandning i USF:er, roller för samhällets olika intressenter i ett ekosystem för bredband, samt strategier för utbyggnad av bredbandsnätverk i glesbefolkade områden.