本文採雙因子固定效果模型(Two-Factor Fixed-Effects Model)，利用中 華人民共和國國家統計局1998 年至2007 年資料，排除台港澳等旅客，研 究中國大陸各省市地區國外入境遊客人次，探討影響各地區入境遊客人次 之決定因素，以及其影響程度。實證模型採用之解釋變數分別為各地區交 通便利性、星級飯店旅館數、人均可支配所得、外資投入總額、製造業比 重、人均醫療機構數、園林與綠地面積、鄰近地區旅遊到訪人數、前兩年 旅遊到訪人數、人均貿易額、平均降水量、降水量變異數以及各地區特質 效果以及時間效果。而被解釋變數為中國大陸各省市地區接待國外入境遊 客人次，經由迴歸分析發現影響中國大陸各地區吸引外國遊客之決定因素 有、星級飯店旅館數、外資投入總額、人均醫療機構數、園林與綠地面積、 前兩年旅遊到訪人數、人均貿易額、平均降水量。並分析中國大陸各地區 之旅遊觀光產業之發展方向，最後則是對觀光產業發展進行政策建議。 / This article is aimed at the factors why visitors visit those regions in mainland China. This study will firstly review literatures about the demand of tourism. By viewing all the discussions, we tried to find out the most likely factors, and the two-factor fixed-effects model was used to analyze these various factors. Data for this analysis was provided by the National Bureau of Statistics People's Republic of China from 1998 to 2007. Several likely factors were taken into consideration as independent variables: the convenience of local traffic, the number of hotels, per capita disposable income, the total amount of foreign investment, the manufacturing sector, the per capita number of medical institutions, gardens and green area, the number of tourist visits around, The number of tourist visiting the first two years, the per capita volume of trade, the average rainfall, rainfall variation and the characteristics effects, and time effects. We used the numbers of foreign visitors of each region of China as dependent variables. The results showed that the factors which would significantly attract foreign tourists were the number of hotels, the total amount of foreign investment, per capita number of medical institutions, gardens and green area, the first two years the number of visiting tourists, the per capita volume of trade, and the average rainfall.

目前超低生育率現象，已對整體社會的走向、國家經濟的發展、生活思維的方式等都產生了相當大的影響。換言之，生育不僅是婦女本身的問題，它與國際社會的動態、經濟的全球化、企業的國際化、現代的子女教育、社會的性別教育、老年人的護理等都有著相當緊密的關係。因此，本研究的主要目的，在於探討臺灣各縣市房地產價格對生育率的影響，並瞭解臺灣生育率持續下降的癥結所在，找出可能影響生育率下降的主要因素加以分析。 本文利用臺灣23個縣市別的追蹤資料，涵蓋期間為2000年至2008年，採雙因子固定效果模型進行實證分析。估計結果發現，在控制其他變數不變之下，在生育率遞延二期時，臺灣各縣市平均地價對生育率為負影響，且在生育率遞延三期時更為顯著，兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。而其他影響臺灣生育率的主要因素，如：各縣市農業人口比例、各縣市粗結婚率、與外國人結婚人數比例皆呈顯著正影響；臺灣各縣市平均地價、原住民人數比例及婦女勞動參與率皆呈顯著負影響。 依本研究結果顯示，房地產價格是影響臺灣生育率相當重要的因素，政府應需高度正視此問題並有所作為。建議未來政府在訂定國家發展政策時，除需研擬更多提升生育率的策略，如：降低父母生育子女的機會成本、改善學前幼托體系，以及加強減輕家庭育兒壓力的宣導工作等，並可增加控制「臺灣房地產價格」及避免房價炒作之策略，以促進國家永續發展及增強國際競爭力。 / The current low fertility rate has been a great impact on our entire social trend, the development of national economy, and the way we think. That is, fertility is not only women’s consideration, but also an issue connected closely to international society, economical globalization, internationalization of business, children education, sex education, and nursing care of the elders. As a result, the main purpose of this paper lies on the effect of average land price on fertility rate in Taiwan. This article uses the panel data of the 23 counties and cities of Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, and does the evidence-based analysis by two-factor fixed-effects model. We found that the average land price has conspicuously positive effect on the fertility rate in Taiwan. While other main factors affect the fertility rate in Taiwan such as the proportion of farm-workers, crude marriage rate, and the proportion of marriage with the foreigners have conspicuously positive effects on it; on the other hand, female labor force participation and the proportion of aborigine have conspicuously negative effects on it. According to our study, average land price is the most important factor which affects the fertility rate in Taiwan, and the government should face the problem and do something to it. When making policy, it is suggested the government may take into consideration of how to control the housing price in Taiwan and avoid housing price speculation.