Thesis advisor: Robert Murphy / A study of recent inflation dynamics in the G-7, this paper discusses a problem with the Phillips curve which arose during the Great Recession (2008-2011). We find that work with time-varying slope, expectation anchoring, and core inflation can correct for the under-predictions that develop in the Phillips Curve during the recession, improving its accuracy throughout the G-7. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

Thesis advisor: Robert Murphey / This paper demonstrates that a linear Phillips Curve has neither theoretical nor empirical justification. I first alter the traditional linear model specification to allow for non-linearity between inflation and unemployment. I show that these non-linear models produce greater R2’s than similar linear versions. I provide theoretical justification for the non-linear models and demonstrate why the theoretical reasoning for linear models is flawed. Finally, by introducing the natural rate of unemployment as a separate independent variable, I increase the explanatory power of the model. I allow the natural rate’s marginal effect on inflation to vary with time and suggest a theoretical framework that supports this final model. I conclude that non-linearity and therefore convexity between inflation and unemployment is the correct framework under any time period for Phillips Curve analysis and application. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2017. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

The financial crisis of 2008 was characterized by disruptions in credit markets and sharp rises in unemployment. This dissertation contributes to our understanding of the interaction of credit and labour markets. The first chapter studies the impact of credit frictions on labour demand given that the labour market is frictionless. The second chapter introduces search and matching to the labour market and studies the interaction between the two types of frictions. The third chapter investigates wages determined by surplus sharing between firms and workers in the environment with search and credit frictions. In Chapter 1 I develop a partial equilibrium model where homogenous firms face credit frictions in the form of collateral constraints. As a result of these frictions firms' demand for capital depends on their net worth. Firms hire workers in the frictionless labour market with an upward-sloping labour supply curve. The model generates a large, although short-lived, response of capital demand to a negative productivity shock. Through complementarity of factors of production the decrease in capital affects employment and wages. As a result of a one standard deviation negative productivity shock employment falls by around 0.65% and wages fall by around 1.3% as opposed to 0.11% and 0.25%, respectively, in the first-best economy. I also find that changing capital and labour supply elasticities have different implications in the presence of credit frictions compared to the first-best economy. Chapter 2 extends Chapter 1 by introducing search frictions to the labour side of the economy. On one hand, when buying capital firms have to deal with the credit frictions outlined above. On the other hand, when hiring workers they face standard search and matching frictions. I then study the interaction of the two frictions. Credit frictions affect labour demand through complementarity of capital and labour. Search frictions influence capital demand through wages: When wages are only partially flexible, the decline in firms' net worth is larger, and the resulting fall in capital is larger as well. I also find that the response of wages to wage flexibility is non-monotonic in the presence of credit frictions. This could potentially explain why we see wages fall little in data. In Chapter 3 I use a model of search and credit frictions developed in Chapter 2 to investigate wages determined by surplus sharing in such environment. I find that credit frictions affect the surplus-sharing mechanism in such a way that they increase the worker's effective bargaining power. That is, the firm and the worker negotiate wages as if the worker had a higher bargaining power. This is due to the fact that under search and credit frictions the firm values workers more that under pure search frictions because output they produce increases the firm's net worth. However, the effective worker's bargaining power appears to be endogenous to the firm's capital holdings and the number of employees. The more capital the firm has, the less the firm is financially constrained, and the lower wages its workers are able to extract. Due to endogeneity of the worker's effective bargaining power, the effect of credit frictions on wages is ambiguous.

Dois foram os objetivos deste trabalho: estruturar, a partir de um enfoque psicanalítico, um enquadre de atendimento clínico com trabalhadores desempregados e suas famílias numa instituição pública de saúde, e investigar, através do atendimento clínico, o impacto do desemprego na vida de homens e mulheres que atravessam essa situação. Desta forma, propusemo-nos a realizar a dupla função do método psicanalítico: a de ser, a um só tempo, instrumento de intervenção e investigação. Apresentamos e discutimos a elaboração conjunta, com a equipe técnica de um Centro de Referência em Saúde do Trabalhador da cidade de São Paulo, de nossa proposta de atendimento, as tentativas de contato e as primeiras entrevistas com as famílias e as dificuldades que encontramos para acompanhá-las por um período de tempo mais prolongado. A seguir, apresentamos o material clínico advindo dos atendimentos que realizamos: as transcrições de seis sessões de um grupo de trabalhadores desempregados, seguidas, cada uma delas, de uma análise que visa acompanhar o passo a passo do suceder grupal; a análise do processo de atendimento de um trabalhador desempregado e sua família, que tem como foco central o modo de funcionamento psíquico dele em família diante da situação de desemprego; e o atendimento de um casal, do qual transcrevemos e analisamos uma sessão referente ao final do processo de atendimento. A parte teórica inicia-se com uma reflexão sobre o campo de estudos e pesquisas da Psicologia Social, para nele situar nossa investigação. Segue-se uma discussão sobre o sistema econômico de mercado e seu impacto na vida social, que tem como uma de suas conseqüências o desemprego de uma parcela significativa da população, e algumas reflexões sobre as relações entre a cultura de massas e a cultura popular que dão suporte tanto ao material que pudemos obter como à nossa maneira de compreendê-lo. A discussão dos elementos encontrados sugere que, para os trabalhadores desempregados, a família é o núcleo central de elaboração, o território que resta para uma re-organização pessoal da nova realidade situacional que o desemprego vem a gerar, embora não possa atender as demandas materiais e emocionais supridas anteriormente, ainda que de forma precária, pela inserção no mundo do trabalho.O trabalho finaliza-se com uma avaliação sobre a experiência clínica realizada, seus limites e possibilidades, e aponta, a partir dos dados encontrados em nossa experiência, para a necessidade de dar continuidade à estruturação de um serviço psicoterapêutico para desempregados em instituições públicas de saúde. / The present work had two objectives: to structure, based on a psychoanalytical focus, a clinical treatment frame involving unemployed workers and their families at a public health institution, and to investigate, through clinical treatment, the impact of unemployment on the lives of men and women who are in this situation. Thus, we aimed to perform the double function of the psychoanalytical method: being, at the same time, an instrument of intervention and investigation. First, we present and discuss the joint elaboration of our treatment proposal, conducted together with the technical team of a Reference Center in Worker’s Health in the city of São Paulo, the attempts to contact the families and the first interviews carried out with them, as well as the difficulties we faced to follow them closely over a long period of time. Then, we present the clinical material resulting from the treatment services we rendered: the transcriptions of six sessions of a group of unemployed workers, followed, each one of them, by an analysis that aims at following closely the step-by-step development of the group; the analysis of the treatment process of an unemployed worker and his family, which focuses on his mode of psychic functioning when he is with his family, facing the unemployment situation; and the treatment of one couple, of which we transcribed and analyzed one session referring to the end of the treatment process. The theoretical part begins with a reflection on the field of studies and research of Social Psychology, in which we situate our investigation. This is followed by a discussion on the market economy system and its impact on social life, which has as one of its consequences the unemployment of a significant portion of the population. Then, we provide some reflections on the relationships between mass culture and popular culture, which support both the material we could obtain and our way of understanding it. Results discussion suggests that, to the unemployed workers, the family is the central nucleus of elaboration, the remaining territory for a personal re-organization of the new situational reality that unemployment generates, although it cannot meet the material and emotional demands that were previously supplied, even though precariously, by insertion in the work world. The work is concluded with an evaluation of the clinical experience that was carried out, its limits and possibilities. Based on the data collected in our research study, it shows the need to continue structuring a psychotherapeutic service for the unemployed in public health institutions.

Dans cette recherche, il s'agit d'étudier la situation socioprofessionnelle de diplômés Bac + 5 de filières techniques à la recherche de première insertion à la sortie de l'université, principalement de connaître les stratégies qu'ils se donnent pour trouver le premier emploi à la sortie de l'université. Cette étude consistera à connaître les réelles difficultés d'insertion professionnelle de ces diplômés dans les six à douze mois qui suivent leur sortie de l'université et aussi de mettre en évidence les stratégies qu'ils se donnent pour trouver leur premier emploi. / In this research, it is to study the socio-occupations license graduates technical fields in search of the first insertion at the exit of the university, mainly know the strategies they give themselves to find the first job out of collège. This study is to know the real difficulties employability of graduates within six to twelve months after their leaving university and also to highlight the integration strategies they give themselves to find their first employment.

The de-industrialisation of the UK economy caused by globalised international markets, advancements in technology and production with changing consumer demands have made much of what was ‘traditional’ manufacturing redundant; this has led to industrial restructuring or even collapse, resulting in mass job redundancies. Market and industrial pressures have intensified since the late 1990s, culminating in the symbolic collapse of MG Rover in 2005 in addition to other key producers in the West Midlands, which represented the end of mass automotive production in the region (Donnelly et al. 2012). This came alongside various geographical, political and economic factors, including the restructuring of regional development agencies, prolonged industrial decline and a period of national economic recession, which presented challenges for any recovery. This thesis examines more precisely the closure of the commercial vehicle manufacturer LDV in 2009, once a part of the larger conglomerate British Leyland. The closure further reinforced the decline in UK automotive manufacturing until that point. The research involves the corporate collapse of LDV and the local government reaction to the closure and the following re-employment pathways of the redundant LDV workforce. The research continues the discussion of plant closures and the issues that redundant workers face when engaged in the labour market during economic recession. In particular, the thesis contribution employs a qualitative approach to examine the difficulties faced by the office tier, or ‘white collar’, workers who possess relatively high skills and who regarded as flexible and less vulnerable workers within the labour market. Yet this research exposes that highly skilled specialist workers are themselves also subject to unique issues when adjusting to the labour market. This topic is covered through the concept of worker trajectories: the research illustrates the unique employability issues and job precariousness that highly skilled workers can experience. The research concludes that the ability of highly skilled redundant workers to adapt effectively requires local job recovery strategies to implement short- and long-term policies with an emphasis on better job search and network development for individuals to sustain a resilient economy, and to mitigate the effects of plant closure upon redundant workers and maintain high skills within the region.

Os três artigos que compõem esta Tese possuem em comum a discussão da macroeconomia e o mercado de trabalho, para a investigação de problemas específicos. Desta forma, esta Tese busca preencher importantes lacunas presentes na literatura nacional e internacional. O primeiro artigo analisa os ciclos do desemprego brasileiro a partir de dados de fluxo de trabalhadores obtidos a partir da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME-IBGE). Usamos a abordagem proposta por Shimer (2007), que tenta controlar para eventual viés decorrente da agregação temporal nos dados do mercado de trabalho. Os dados brasileiros sugerem que a margem de ingresso para o desemprego (margem de separação) tem grande relevância para explicar os ciclos da taxa de desemprego no Brasil no período de março de 2002 a dezembro de 2010. Tais resultados indicam que o Brasil, relativamente a alguns países desenvolvidos, apresenta um mercado de trabalho com características mais próximas de um contexto com baixa regulamentação, ou seja, que o ingresso (e não a saída) no desemprego seria o principal responsável por sua flutuação. Além disso, a dinâmica da margem de separação, em relação a indicadores de atividade (PIB e Taxa de Desemprego), tem um comportamento claro (anticíclico e pró-cíclico, respectivamente), respondendo com um trimestre de antecedência com relação à taxa de desemprego. O segundo artigo analisa o papel da heterogeneidade no mercado de trabalho ao longo dos ciclos de negócio no Brasil. O comportamento cíclico da mão de obra dá sinais de mudanças em sua composição qualitativa. Tais indícios, encontrados na PME, se basearam no comportamento cíclico relativo de emprego e salário real/hora a partir de diferentes coortes: grau de escolaridade, tempo de trabalho e idade. Usando um arcabouço de busca de emprego com destruição endógena, nos moldes de Mortensen e Pissarides (1994), ilustramos que quanto maior a heterogeneidade na economia menor será a correlação entre salário real e desemprego. Por fim, o último artigo utiliza o modelo de DSGE proposto por Galí et al. (2011) - que faz o uso da taxa de desemprego e, assim, evita a Crítica de Lucas - a fim de (i) identificar quais fricções são importantes para captar as flutuações das séries macroeconômicas no Brasil, em especial da taxa de desemprego; (ii) averiguar se a série de desemprego traz informações úteis ao modelo; e (iii) discutir como choques de produtividade se manifestam sobre a taxa de desemprego. Os resultados sugerem, em relação aos dados da economia brasileira, melhor acurácia do modelo com todas as fricções (exceção às indexações salariais). Além disso, a presença da taxa de desemprego muda a ordem de importância das fricções, dando maior importância às fricções reais. As decomposições de variância realizadas indicam que choques de markup salarial perdem importância à custa, principalmente, dos choques de prêmio de risco. O uso da taxa de desemprego permite que choques de preferência sejam identificados e passem a explicar os ciclos. Por fim, funções de resposta ao impulso bayesianas sugerem que o desemprego é negativamente afetado por choque de produtividade, resultado decorrente de reduções da demanda de trabalho. / The three articles that compose this thesis have in common the discussion of macroeconomics and the labor market, for the investigation of specific problems. Thus, this thesis seeks to fill important gaps in the national and international literature. The first article analyzes the cycles of Brazilian unemployment from workers flow data obtained in Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME-IBGE). We use the approach proposed by Shimer (2007) that attempts to control for possible bias due to temporal aggregation in labor market data. Brazilian data suggest that the margin of entry into unemployment (separation margin) has great relevance to explain the cycles of unemployment rate in Brazil from March 2002 to December 2010. These results indicate that Brazil, relatively to some developed countries, has a labor market with characteristics much closer to a context with low regulation, that is, entering (not leaving) unemployment would be primarily responsible for its fluctuation. Moreover, the dynamics of the separation margin, in relation to activity indicators (GDP and Unemployment Rate), has a clear behavior (anti-cyclical and procyclical, respectively), responding with a quarter in advance regarding the unemployment rate. The second article examines the role of heterogeneity in the labor market over the business cycle in Brazil. The cyclical behavior of the labor-work gives signs of qualitative changes in its composition. Such indications, found in the PME, were based on the cyclical behavior of employment and real wage/hour from different cohorts: level of education, tenure and age. Using a framework of job search with endogenous destruction, along the lines of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), we illustrate that the greater heterogeneity in the economy, the lower the correlation between real wages and unemployment. Finally, the last article uses the DSGE model proposed by Galí et al. (2011) - which makes use of the unemployment rate and thus avoid the Lucas Critique - in order to (i) identify which frictions are important to capture the fluctuations of the series of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil, especially in the unemployment rate; (ii) determine whether the series of unemployment brings useful information to the model, and (iii) discuss how productivity shocks manifest themselves on the unemployment rate. The results suggest, in relation to the data of the Brazilian economy, the better accuracy of the model with all frictions (except for wage indexation). Moreover, the presence of unemployment rate changes the order of importance of frictions, giving greater weight to real frictions. The variance decompositions performed indicate that wage markup shocks become less important at the expense mainly of the risk premium shocks. The use of the unemployment rate allows preference shocks to become identified and to explain the cycles. Finally, impulse response functions Bayesian suggest that unemployment is negatively affected by productivity shock, a result due to reductions in labor demand.

This paper concetrates on the unemployment. In the theory there are described various terms of the labour market field. In the practical part you can find the comparison of the rate of unumplyment in chosen district Tábor and Písek and as well you can learn, how the industrial zone affects the unemployment.

This thesis focuses on corelation between unemployment and gross domestic product in the Czech Republic and Poland during the period 1990 - 1998. It analyses an empirically observed relationship relating change in unemloyment rate to change in GDP -- Okun's law. After presenting aproaches of different economic schools to unemployment, this work analyses and compares changes in unemployment and labour market as well as identifies the main factors of economic growth and unemployment rate. It faces a problem of discrepancy and inaccuracy of statistical data from the transformation period as well as rapidly changing factors that influenced the natural rate of unemployment and potential output. These reasons made it impossible to uniquely determine validity of Okun's law during transformation period in the Czech Republic and Poland.

This thesis is an analysis of two concurrent processes - the liberalisation of the economy and the expansion of the tertiary education system - by the National Islamic Front (NIF)/National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum, Sudan. It is based on 18 months fieldwork conducted between 2008 and 2010, combining qualitative material from interviews, focus groups and field notes with a questionnaire administered to 300 employees in 14 organisations and 100 other individuals on public transportation. This questionnaire was adapted from Mark Granovetter’s survey of job information in the United States. The thesis makes both theoretical and empirical contributions. It examines the extent to which liberalisation has developed ‘markets’ by looking at communication in the labour market from the point of view of university graduates and managers in different fields. In contrast to Granovetter’s theory of ‘the strength of weak ties’ (SWT), it shows a trend of strong and strengthening ties in the Sudanese labour market. It argues that the combination of politically motivated liberalisation and the drastic expansion of education has plunged Sudan into a state of ‘hyperinflation’ of its qualifications, making public information about candidates untrustworthy and encouraging managers to use more personal sources of information to evaluate candidates. A simultaneous privatisation and internationalisation of opportunity has ensued. Educational expansion and liberalisation have dissolved the national cognitive space of the labour market and have forced actors to construct their own private economic spaces and to draw on transnational spaces in order to deal with uncertainty. The thesis therefore demonstrates an incongruity between ‘liberalised markets’ and the ‘markets’ envisioned by economic models (spaces of communication and coordination between strangers). It concludes by arguing that the retreat of both state and market has contributed to the ethnic fragmentation of Sudan under the NCP.