It can be difficult for a sovereign debt manager to see the implications on expected costs and risk of a specific debt management strategy, a simulation model can therefore be a valuable tool. This study investigates how future economic data such as yield curves, foreign exchange rates and CPI can be simulated and how a portfolio optimization model can be used for a sovereign debt office that mainly uses financial derivatives to alter its strategy. The programming language R is used to develop a bespoke software for the Swedish National Debt Office, however, the method that is used can be useful for any debt manager. The model performs well when calculating risk implications of different strategies but debt managers that use this software to find optimal strategies must understand the model's limitations in calculating expected costs. The part of the code that simulates economic data is developed as a separate module and can thus be used for other studies, key parts of the code are available in the appendix of this paper. Foreign currency exposure is the factor that had the largest effect on both expected cost and risk, moreover, the model does not find any cost advantage of issuing inflation-protected debt. The opinions expressed in this thesis are the sole responsibility of the author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Swedish National Debt Office. / Det kan vara svårt för en statsskuldsförvaltare att se påverkan på förväntade kostnader och risk när en skuldförvaltningsstrategi väljs, en simuleringsmodell kan därför vara ett värdefullt verktyg. Den här studien undersöker hur framtida ekonomiska data som räntekurvor, växelkurser ock KPI kan simuleras och hur en portföljoptimeringsmodell kan användas av ett skuldkontor som främst använder finansiella derivat för att ändra sin strategi. Programmeringsspråket R används för att utveckla en specifik mjukvara åt Riksgälden, men metoden som används kan vara användbar för andra skuldförvaltare. Modellen fungerar väl när den beräknar risk i olika portföljer men skuldförvaltare som använder modellen för att hitta optimala strategier måste förstå modellens begränsningar i att beräkna förväntade kostnader. Delen av koden som simulerar ekonomiska data utvecklas som en separat modul och kan därför användas för andra studier, de viktigaste delarna av koden finns som en bilaga till den här rapporten. Valutaexponering är den faktor som hade störst påverkan på både förväntade kostnader och risk och modellen hittar ingen kostnadsfördel med att ge ut inflationsskyddade lån. Åsikterna som uttrycks i den här uppsatsen är författarens egna ansvar och ska inte tolkas som att de reflekterar Riksgäldens syn.

Foreign trade is increasingly becoming a powerful tool when it comes to the promotion of economic growth in modern economies. This is especially so in the face of the continued rise of globalisation. In consideration of this fact, this thesis assessed the impact of foreign trade on the growth process of Namibia’s economy for the period stretching from 1990 to 2012. This main objective was further developed into primary, theoretical and empirical objectives. In order to realise these multiple objectives, two modern econometric time series techniques were employed, namely vector autoregressive (VAR) and auto-regression distributed lag (ARDL) models. Based on these two techniques, the following procedures featured during the study: Stationary tests, error correction modelling, co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, generalised impulse response functions and generalised forecast error variance decomposition. The following constitutes the main findings arising from this study: First, the study found that there is a positive relationship among the variables that were investigated. Indeed, this positive relationship suggests that the economy of Namibia can be expanded potentially by means of foreign trade. The result is also in line with economic theory. Secondly, the empirical findings also show that export, foreign direct investment and exchange rate endogenously respond to shocks in economic growth. Thirdly, economic growth itself accounted for most of the innovations that occurred during the period under consideration concerning economic growth. Fourthly, amongst the three explanatory variables used in the model, exports and foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast period. Initially, exports and foreign direct investment dominated over the forecast horizon with each contributing almost an equal share of over 5 percent after 12 quarters. Thereafter, exports’ contribution relatively exceeded that of foreign direct investment. Fifthly, it is particularly important to note that the exchange rate variable made the weakest contribution towards explaining economic growth for the forecast period of 24 quarters. In consideration of the general constraints associated with this study, the thesis puts forward a number of proposals for possible further investigation by any theorist who is keen about probing the issue that the thesis investigated. The thesis considers the following as its significant contributions to the existing literature: First, this study primarily examined the relationship between exports and economic growth. By adding the effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate to the analysis, this study became more comprehensive. This further widens the scope for policymaking for Namibia, as well as other developing economies on a similar route. Secondly, the study employed two modern econometric time series techniques, namely VAR and ARDL models in investigating the research topic under consideration. Most of the related studies that were reviewed either utilised ordinary least squares (OLS) or VAR or ARDL approach on its own. By implication, the results obtained from this study, therefore, are from a technical point of view more robust. Thirdly, through constructive comments, this thesis made valuable contributions to the relevant empirical literature as reviewed during the course of the study. Fourthly, since this study has a focus on Namibia, it provided the opportunity for the thesis to present a comprehensive analysis on issues pertaining to Namibia specifically. Lastly, the various recommendations put forward by this thesis will assist Namibia, as well as other developing countries, on a related path when it comes to formulating policies for the promotion of exports in particular and economic growth in general. / PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015.

Foreign trade is increasingly becoming a powerful tool when it comes to the promotion of economic growth in modern economies. This is especially so in the face of the continued rise of globalisation. In consideration of this fact, this thesis assessed the impact of foreign trade on the growth process of Namibia’s economy for the period stretching from 1990 to 2012. This main objective was further developed into primary, theoretical and empirical objectives. In order to realise these multiple objectives, two modern econometric time series techniques were employed, namely vector autoregressive (VAR) and auto-regression distributed lag (ARDL) models. Based on these two techniques, the following procedures featured during the study: Stationary tests, error correction modelling, co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, generalised impulse response functions and generalised forecast error variance decomposition. The following constitutes the main findings arising from this study: First, the study found that there is a positive relationship among the variables that were investigated. Indeed, this positive relationship suggests that the economy of Namibia can be expanded potentially by means of foreign trade. The result is also in line with economic theory. Secondly, the empirical findings also show that export, foreign direct investment and exchange rate endogenously respond to shocks in economic growth. Thirdly, economic growth itself accounted for most of the innovations that occurred during the period under consideration concerning economic growth. Fourthly, amongst the three explanatory variables used in the model, exports and foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast period. Initially, exports and foreign direct investment dominated over the forecast horizon with each contributing almost an equal share of over 5 percent after 12 quarters. Thereafter, exports’ contribution relatively exceeded that of foreign direct investment. Fifthly, it is particularly important to note that the exchange rate variable made the weakest contribution towards explaining economic growth for the forecast period of 24 quarters. In consideration of the general constraints associated with this study, the thesis puts forward a number of proposals for possible further investigation by any theorist who is keen about probing the issue that the thesis investigated. The thesis considers the following as its significant contributions to the existing literature: First, this study primarily examined the relationship between exports and economic growth. By adding the effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate to the analysis, this study became more comprehensive. This further widens the scope for policymaking for Namibia, as well as other developing economies on a similar route. Secondly, the study employed two modern econometric time series techniques, namely VAR and ARDL models in investigating the research topic under consideration. Most of the related studies that were reviewed either utilised ordinary least squares (OLS) or VAR or ARDL approach on its own. By implication, the results obtained from this study, therefore, are from a technical point of view more robust. Thirdly, through constructive comments, this thesis made valuable contributions to the relevant empirical literature as reviewed during the course of the study. Fourthly, since this study has a focus on Namibia, it provided the opportunity for the thesis to present a comprehensive analysis on issues pertaining to Namibia specifically. Lastly, the various recommendations put forward by this thesis will assist Namibia, as well as other developing countries, on a related path when it comes to formulating policies for the promotion of exports in particular and economic growth in general. / PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015.

In this thesis we examine the macroeconomic interactions of unconventional monetary policy introduced by European Central bank during crisis by estimating a panel vector autoregression. We study impact of such policies using monthly data from 13 Central and Eastern European countries within seven-year period from 2008 to 2014. We find a positive reactions of output and prices to expansionary unconventional monetary policy shock. Our results provide evidence that decrease in shadow policy rate of ECB leads to rise in output as well as temporary rise in inflation, however, the effect on inflation is weaker and less persistent. We also find that unconventional monetary policy positively influences market uncertainty, but we do not find any significant effect on exchange rates. Individual country estimates suggest that the reaction of exchange rates to non-standard monetary policy shock significantly vary across countries.

Objective: One of the main theoretical proposals of Intensive Short-term Dynamic Psychotherapy (ISTDP; Davanloo, 1990) is that experiencing of previously unconscious guilt over aggressive impulses associated with attachment trauma leads to increase in self-compassion. The present study aimed to test this assumption. Method: Videotaped sessions from five therapies from a randomized controlled trial of 20-sessions of time-limited ISTDP for treatment-refractory depression were rated with the Achievement of Therapeutic Objectives Scale (ATOS; McCullough, Larsen, Schanche, Andrews& Kuhn, 2003b). Degree of patient guilt arousal and self-compassion were rated on all available sessions. Data were analyzed using a replicated single-subject time-series approach. Results: Guilt arousal was not shown to positively predict self-compassion for any of the five patients. For one patient guilt arousal negatively predicted self-compassion two sessions ahead in time. Conclusion: The current study yields no support that the experience of guilt over aggressive feelings and impulses leads to increases in self-compassion. On the contrary, the finding that guilt negatively predicted self-compassion for one patient must be considered as an indication that this treatment process might negatively impact self-compassion for some patients in some contexts. However, there are several methodological limitations to the current study in the light of which the results should be regarded as tentative.

This dissertation examines several issues regarding the congestion on the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois Waterway. Chapter II identifies and measures the impact of lock congestion on grain barge rates on these waterways. Results indicate grain barge rates on both rivers are not affected by lagged lock congestion. In present time, however, lock congestion in the lower reaches of the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers are found to increase barge rates that link the north central United States to the lower Mississippi Gulf port area. The findings suggest the impact of lock congestion on grain barge rates is moderate. Chapter III explores the interaction between grain prices in export and domestic markets and transportation rates linking these markets over time. Three model frameworks were evaluated and some consistent results are observed. In general, shocks in transportation rates (barge, rail, and ocean) explain a great proportion of the variation in corn and soybean market prices in the long run, suggesting the importance of transportation in grain price determination. The volatile ocean freight rates are the mostimportant transportation rates contributing to the variation in grain prices, while shocks in barge rates on the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois Waterway generally explain less than 15 percent of the variation in grain prices. The dynamic interrelationships among the six evaluated transportation rates are also found. In addition, the north central corn markets likely have the most influence over other markets while soybean export price dominates the soybean market in the long run. Chapter IV estimates the structural demand for grain barge transportation on both the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Results suggest foreign grain demand is the most influential force affecting grain barge demand on both rivers. Also, results indicate an inelastic demand for grain barge transportation on the Upper Mississippi in the short run; demand is price elastic in the long run. The price elasticity for grain barge demand on the Illinois River is consistently inelastic. Additionally, the winter season and floods affect demand on the Upper Mississippi negatively, while barge demand increases on the Illinois River in winter.

This article considers the evolution of international business cycle interdependencies among 27 developed and developing countries since the beginning of 1870s, utilising the generalized vector autoregressive (VAR)-based spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), which allows the construction of a time-varying measure of business cycle spillovers. We find that, on average, 65% of the forecast error variance of the 27 countries' business cycle shocks is due to international spillovers. However, the magnitude of international business cycle spillovers varies considerably over time. There is a clear increasing trend since the end of World War II and until the middle 1980s. After that, international business cycle interdependencies declined during the period that was dubbed the Great Moderation, and stabilized around the beginning of the twenty-first century. During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, international business cycle spillovers increased to unprecedented levels. Finally, developed countries are consistently ranked as net transmitters of cyclical shocks to developing counties throughout the sample. (authors' abstract)

Macroeconomic stability is one of the most important national objectives in any country. However, economies are often subjected to a number of shocks (internal and external), which can be destabilising, produce volatility and make it difficult to achieve and maintain economic stability. Consequently, various policies are used to help deal with the various shocks that may affect the economy. Of all the available policies, monetary policy appears to have been ever more at the centre of macroeconomic policymaking. Meanwhile, for monetary policy to be effective, there is a need for a better understanding of the transmission mechanism, i.e., the process through which monetary policy decisions are transmitted into changes in real output and inflation. Whereas extensive research on the transmission mechanism has been conducted in developed countries, such work in developing countries, especially in Africa is lacking. This could be due to the fact that it was not long time ago, around the 1990s that countries in Africa started adopting the more modem central bank operations in a market-based economic and financial system characterised by indirect monetary policy. Such operations require an understanding of the transmission mechanism. Lack of empirical analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Botswana and developing countries of Africa in general, is the main motivating factor behind this thesis. The main objective of this thesis is, therefore, to estimate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Botswana. Three different, but complementary techniques (the Narrative Approach, Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and the Structural Approach involving the estimation of a small structural model for Botswana economy) are used. Results from these methods tell a consistent story and indicate that monetary policy in Botswana affects real output and inflation through the interest rate channel, while the exchange rate channel is not operational. The credit channel is also active but not strong. The structural approach also indicates that devaluation is contractionary in Botswana, but more research is necessary before firmer conclusions could be made.

In the field of empirical macroeconomics factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models have become a popular tool in explaining how economic variables interact over time. FAVAR is based upon a data-reduction step using factor estimation, which are then employed in a vector autoregressive model. This paper aims to study alternative methods regarding factor estimation. More precisely, we compare the generally used principal component method with the uncomplicated common correlated effect estimation. Results show low divergence between the two factor estimation methods employed, indicating interchangeability between the two estimation approaches.

This study examines the linkages between output growth and output volatility in the G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2013M8. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) we find that: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined; ii) spillovers have reached unprecedented levels during the global financial crisis; and iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of growth and volatility shocks. Generalized impulse response analyses suggest moderate growth spillovers and sizable volatility spillovers across countries. Cross-variable effects indicate that volatility shocks lead to lower growth, while growth shocks reduce output volatility.