Em junho de 2013, o reajuste de R$ 0,20 na tarifa de ônibus gerou uma série de manifestações populares no país que acabaram fazendo alguns governos, como o da cidade de São Paulo, voltarem atrás e arcarem com essa diferença com as empresas de ônibus. Visto isso, o prefeito de São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, propôs uma política de municipalização de um tributo imposto sobre a gasolina, a CIDE, para financiar o transporte público urbano. Nesse contexto, foi encomendada uma pesquisa a Fundação Getúlio Vargas para responder a magnitude do impacto desse subsídio cruzado entre usuários do transporte privado e coletivo. Esse trabalho utiliza o resultado encontrado por essa pesquisa para responder qual o efeito sobre o tráfego da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo utilizando dados da Pesquisa de Origem e Destino de 2007. Os resultados encontrados mostram que a política de subsídio cruzado proporciona um baixo deslocamento no fluxo dos modos de transporte. Além disso, a análise de bem estar da política mostra que os mais favorecidos são os indivíduos de baixa renda. A estimação é feita com base em dois modelos de escolha discreta (Multinomial e Mixed Logit), separada por dois motivos de viagem: trabalho e estudo. E, as simulações de deslocamento de demanda utilizam dois valores de tributos, R$ 0,10 e R$ 0,50. / In June 2013, the increase of 0.20 BRL in bus fare has emerged a series of popular demonstrations in the country that ended up making some governments, such as the city of São Paulo, backtrack and pay out this difference with the buses company. So, the mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, proposed a policy of decentralization of a tax imposed on gasoline, CIDE, to finance urban public transport. In this context, a report was commissioned to Fundação Getúlio Vargas to respond the magnitude of the impact of cross-subsidy between users of private and collective transport. This work uses the results found in this report to answer the effect on traffic in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo using data from the Source and Destination Survey of 2007. Results show that the cross-subsidy policy provides a low offset in the flow modes of transport. Moreover, the analysis of welfare policy shows that the most favored are the low-income individuals. The estimation is based on two discrete choice models (Multinomial and Mixed Logit), separate for two reasons of trips: work and study. And the simulations of displacement demand use two values of taxes, 0.10 and 0.50 BRL.

nÃo hà / O objetivo deste trabalho à estimar a probabilidade de um trabalhador estar empregado no setor informal, condicionadas as suas caracterÃsticas produtivas, considerando a possibilidade de viÃs de seleÃÃo amostral. A amostra se restringe ao CearÃ, e utiliza a Pesquisa Nacional de Amostras por DomicÃlio (PNAD) 2008 para classificar os trabalhadores em formais e informais. De acordo com a hipÃtese da dualidade, os postos de trabalho no setor formal sÃo efetivamente melhores em vÃrias dimensÃes, e a existÃncia de informalidade ocorre porque o nÃmero destes postos à limitado. Se de fato hà segmentaÃÃo no mercado de trabalho e racionamento dos postos de trabalho formais, à importante saber como ocorre à alocaÃÃo de trabalhadores entre os dois setores. Para tanto, à considerada a possibilidade de viÃs de seleÃÃo na escolha entre os setores formal e informal. O viÃs de seleÃÃo ocorre quando uma sÃrie de caracterÃsticas nÃo observÃveis dos indivÃduos pode fazer com que eles acabem trabalhando, por opÃÃo ou necessidade, no setor informal da economia. Ou seja, caracterÃsticas nÃo observÃveis dos indivÃduos, como habilidade, forÃa de vontade, determinaÃÃo, criatividade etc., podem estar determinando a escolha entre trabalhar no mercado formal ou informal. / The aim of this study to estimate the probability of a worker being employed in the informal sector conditioned their productive characteristics, considering the possibility of sample selection bias. The sample is restricted to CearÃ, and uses the National Survey of Household Sample Survey (PNAD) in 2008 to classify workers in formal and informal. According to the dual hypothesis, the jobs in the formal sector are indeed better in many dimensions, and the existence of informality is because the number of these jobs is limited. If indeed there is segmentation in the labor market and rationing of formal jobs, it is important to know how the allocation of workers between the two sectors. For this is considered the possibility of selection bias in the choice between formal and informal sectors. The selection bias occurs when a number of unobservable characteristics of individuals can make them end up working, by choice or necessity, in the informal economy. That is, unobservable characteristics of individuals such as skill, willpower, determination, creativity etc., it may be influencing the choice between working in the formal or informal.

Esta pesquisa investiga os determinantes e a evolução recente no Brasil do trabalho remunerado feminino exercido no próprio domicílio ou simplesmente trabalho domiciliar. Quase 10% da população feminina ocupada, aproximadamente 4,5 milhões de mulheres, tem esse tipo de ocupação. Constatando a inexistência de estudos sobre o tema com dados quantitativos abrangentes, a presente pesquisa utiliza informações da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras Domiciliares (PNAD) de 1992 a 2005 para analisar como evoluiu a proporção de trabalhadoras domiciliares no total da população ocupada. As mais importantes hipóteses delineadas na literatura a partir de estudos de caso são discutidas pela confrontação com os dados. Sob a ótica da demanda por essa forma de trabalho, analisa-se os setores que mais fazem uso do trabalho domiciliar feminino e as mudanças nessa composição, bem como sua relação com as transformações no mundo do trabalho decorrentes da reestruturação empresarial. Quanto à oferta por trabalho domiciliar, investiga-se como atributos individuais e familiares afetam as chances da mulher estar nesse tipo de condição de ocupação. É debatido como as transformações na inserção produtiva feminina afetaram a importância relativa do trabalho domiciliar. Constrói-se um modelo Logit Multinomial no Stata a partir dos dados da PNAD para comparar como mudou no tempo o impacto de cada atributo sobre a probabilidade de que uma mulher seja trabalhadora domiciliar. / This research investigates the determinants and recent developments of female home-based work in Brazil. Almost 10% of the occupied female population, approximately 4.5 million women, has this kind of occupation. Noting the lack of studies on the topic with comprehensive quantitative data, the present research uses information from PNAD beginning on 1992 until 2005 to evaluate how the proportion of female home-based workers on occupied population evolved. The most important assumptions outlined in the literature from case studies are discussed by confrontation with the data. From the perspective of demand for this type of work, sectors that intensively use female home-based work are analyzed, as well as its relationship with the changes in the labor market resulting from firms restructuring. On the supply of home-based work, it is investigated how individual and family attributes affect the chances of a woman to be in this work condition. It is discussed how the changes on female\'s productive insertion affected the relative importance of home-based work. A Multinomial Logit model is built on Stata using the data from PNAD to compare how the impacts of each attribute on the probability of a woman being home-based worker changed over time.

Submitted by Cristiana Freitas (criscgf@hotmail.com) on 2018-05-24T19:38:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE - Cristiana Freitas.pdf: 1002118 bytes, checksum: 04f0edb6067713b5b5b09ee6fa22d053 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-05-28T16:29:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE - Cristiana Freitas.pdf: 1002118 bytes, checksum: 04f0edb6067713b5b5b09ee6fa22d053 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-14T20:15:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação EPGE - Cristiana Freitas.pdf: 1002118 bytes, checksum: 04f0edb6067713b5b5b09ee6fa22d053 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-27 / This thesis aims to estimate the demand for auto insurance in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Due to the availability of consumer level data, a brief review of discrete choice models was made, focusing on Logit with random coefficients. In order to effectively implement the models, we had to deal with a peculiarity of the insurance industry: prices vary according to each individual. As we only have the effective prices of the contracted policy, a random forest model was tested to generate expected premium values for the insurers. / Esta dissertação tem como objetivo estimar a demanda por seguro de automóvel na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Em razão da disponibilidade de dados a nível do consumidor, foi feita uma breve revisão de modelos de escolha discreta, com destaque para o Logit com coeficientes aleatórios. Para ser possível a efetiva implementação dos modelos, foi preciso lidar com uma peculiaridade do setor de seguros: os preços variam de acordo com o indivíduo. Como só temos os preços efetivos da apólice contratada, foi testado um modelo random forest para gerar valores esperados de prêmio das seguradoras.

Das Ziel der Masterarbeit ist es zu klären, ob private Haushalte variable Strompreise akzeptieren und die Stärke der charakteristischen Merkmale zu ermitteln. Der dazu benötigte Datensatz wurde mit Hilfe einer Stated Choice Befragung im Internet ermittelt. Dafür wurden drei Gerätekategorien und ein Dreitarifmodell formuliert. Für die Auswertung wurde ein additiv verknüpftes Teilwert-Nutzenmodell und ein binäres Logit-Choice-Modell verwendet. Signifikante Variablen wurden über das Top-down-Verfahren bestimmt. Das Modell und die Schätzer der Preise wurden im Anschluss durch Hypothesentest getestet. Als signifikante Schätzer, mit stark negativen Werten, stellten sich in allen Kategorien die Preise heraus. Die Hypothesentests ergaben, dass es sinnvoll ist, die Schätzer der Preise für die ersten beiden Gerätetypen zusammenzufassen. Es stellte sich eine unterproportionale Preiselastizität der Nachfrage heraus und eine hohe Akzeptanz ein Teil der Geräte in den Nachtstunden zu nutzen. Insgesamt sprachen sich mehr Teilnehmer für ein Smart-Meter-Gateway aus als dagegen. / The aim of the master thesis is to clarify whether private households accept variable electricity prices and determine the strength of the characteristic attributes. The data set was determined with a Stated Choice survey on the Internet. For this purpose, three device categories and a three-tariff model were formulated. An additive-linked partial-value model and a binary logit choice model were used for the evaluation. Significant variables were determined by using the top-down method. Afterwards the model and the estimators of the prices were tested with statistical hypothesis testings. The price emerged as a significant estimator, with strongly negative values in all categories. The hypothesis tests showed that it is useful to conclude the estimators of the prices for the first two device types. The results showed an inelastic price elasticity of demand and a high acceptance of the subjects to use a part of the devices in the night hours. Overall, more participants decide to use a smart meter gateway than to refuse it.

An evidence-based policy debate about future fuel demand requires reliable estimates for fuel price elasticities. Such predictions are often based on revealed preference (RP) data. However, this procedure will only yield reliable results in the absence of severe structural discontinuities. In order to overcome this potential limitation we used a situational stated preference (SP) survey to estimate the response to hypothetical fuel price changes beyond the scope of previous observations. We elicit fuel price elasticities for price increases up to four Euros per liter and find that the situational approach predicts the actual responses to previously observed fuel price changes very well. We conclude that applying a situational approach is particularly useful, if behavioral predictions for unprecedented (non-monetary) policy interventions or supply side shocks are of interest that go beyond the reach of standard RP approaches.

Hoy en día, las Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas (PYMES) son consideradas como una fuente de crecimiento, empleo e inclusión social; sin embargo, estas sufren de limitaciones recurrentes respecto al acceso al crédito sobre todo si son lideradas por mujeres. Por ello, la presente investigación tiene como objetivo determinar la existencia de discriminación de género en el acceso al crédito en PYMES en el Perú en el año 2017 mediante la Encuesta Nacional de Empresas 2018 (ENE) para lo cual se utilizara un modelo econométrico Probit y se analizaran variables como edad, educación del propietario, sector económico, etc., lo cual demuestra que la probabilidad de que una PYME logre acceder al crédito disminuye cuando este presenta como propietario una mujer y afirmando la hipótesis sobre si en realidad la estructura de la empresa varía dependiendo del sexo del propietario de la PYME teniendo énfasis en la educación del propietario y sector económico al cual la PYME pertenece. / Nowadays, Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are considered a source of growth, employment, and social inclusion; however, they suffer from recurrent limitations in access to credit, especially if they are led by women. For that, reason, the aim of this research is to determine the existence of gender discrimination in access to credit in SMEs in Peru in 2017 through the National Survey of Companies 2018 (ENE). To do so, a Probit econometric model will be used and variables such as age, owner's education, economic sector, etc. will be analyzed, which shows that the probability of an SME gaining access to credit decreases when the owner is a woman and affirms the hypothesis that the structure of the business varies depending on the sex of the SME owner, with emphasis on the education of the owner and the economic sector to which the SME belongs. / Trabajo de investigación

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18255号 / 工博第3847号 / 新制||工||1590(附属図書館) / 31113 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 准教授 宇野 伸宏, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

The research utilizes a Discrete Choice Experiment to assess consumer preferences and determine blockchain-based food traceability's relative importance and utility in the food purchasing process. The study specifically tests five selected attributes of olive oil, including price, organic label, olive oil type, country of origin, and blockchain traceability. Additionally, a survey is conducted to evaluate Swedish consumers' knowledge levels concerning blockchain technology and its application in the food system to improve transparency. The study also explores consumer evaluations of safety and sustainability information and their willingness to pay price premiums for food products verified for safety and environmental claims. The findings indicate that while Swedish consumers possess moderate knowledge of blockchain technology, their understanding of its specific application in food traceability is limited. Nevertheless, consumers highly value access to accurate information about the safety and sustainability of their food purchases. A considerable portion of respondents express a willingness to pay a premium for products verified for safety, authenticity, and sustainability. The choice experiment results reveal that blockchain-based food traceability ranks lower in relative importance than the price and organic label but higher than olive oil type and country of origin. The findings of this study contribute to bridging the existing gap in the understanding of blockchain-based food traceability technology among Swedish consumers.

Natural disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity and have devastating impacts on individuals, both humanitarian and economic, particularly in developing countries. Microinsurance is seen as one promising instrument of disaster risk management, however the level of demand for respective projects remains low. Using behavioural games and a discrete choice experiment, this paper analyses the demand for hypothetical microinsurance products in rural Cambodia and contributes significant household level evidence to the current research. A general preference for microinsurance can be found, with demand significantly affected by price, provider, requirements for prevention and combinations with credit. Furthermore, financial literacy, risk aversion, levels of trust and previous disaster experience impact the individual demand for flood insurance in rural Cambodia.