This thesis studies the interaction between new and used durable goods without physical depreciation. In product categories such as CDs/DVDs and video games, the competition from used goods markets has been viewed as a serious problem by producers. These products physically depreciate negligibly, but owners' consumption values could depreciate quickly due to satiation. Consequently, used goods that are almost identical to new goods may become available immediately after a new product release. However, the existence of used goods markets also provides consumers with a selling opportunity. If consumers are forward-looking and account for the future resale value of a product in their buying decision, used goods markets could increase the sales of new goods. Thus, whether used good markets are harmful or beneficial to new-good producers is an empirical question. To tackle this question, I extend the previous literature in three ways. First, I assemble a new data set from the Japanese video game market. This unique data set includes not only the sales and prices of new and used goods, but also the resale value of used copies, the quantity of used copies retailers purchased from consumers, and the inventory level of used copies at retailers. Second, I develop a structural model of forward-looking consumers that incorporates (i) new and used goods buying decisions, (ii) used goods selling decisions, (iii) consumer expectations about future prices of new and used goods as well as resale values of used goods, and (iv) the depreciation of both owners' and potential buyers' consumption values. Third, I develop a new Bayesian estimation method to estimate my model. In particular, my method can alleviate the computational burden of estimating non-stationary discrete choice dynamic programming models with continuous state variables that evolve stochastically over time. The estimation results suggest that consumers are forward-looking in the Japanese video game market and the substitutability between new and used video games is quite low. Using the estimates, I quantify the impact of eliminating the used video game market on new-game revenues. I find that the elimination of used video game market could reduce the revenue for a new game.

A large body of literature studies the issues of the option price and other ex-ante welfare measures under the microeconomic theory to valuate reductions of risks inherent in environment and human health. However, it does not offer a careful discussion of how to estimate risk reduction values using data, especially the modeling and estimating individual perceptions of risks present in the econometric models. The central theme of my dissertation is the approaches taken for the empirical estimation of probabilistic risks under alternative assumptions about individual perceptions of risk involved: the objective probability, the Savage subjective probability, and the subjective distributions of probability. Each of these three types of risk specifications is covered in one of the three essays. The first essay addresses the problem of empirical estimation of individual willingness to pay for recreation access to public land under uncertainty. In this essay I developed an econometric model and applied it to the case of lottery-rationed hunting permits. The empirical result finds that the model correctly predicts the responses of 84% of the respondents in the Maine moose hunting survey. The second essay addresses the estimation of a logit model for individual binary choices that involve heterogeneity in subjective probabilities. For this problem, I introduce the use of the hierarchical Bayes to estimate, among others, the parameters of distribution of subjective probabilities. The Monte Carlo study finds the estimator asymptotically unbiased and efficient. The third essay addresses the problem of modeling perceived mortality risks from arsenic concentrations in drinking water. I estimated a formal model that allows for ambiguity about risk. The empirical findings revealed that perceived risk was positively associated with exposure levels and also related individuating factors, in particular smoking habits and one’s current health status. Further evidence was found that the variance of the perceived risk distribution is non-zero. In all, the three essays contribute methodological approaches and provide empirical examples for developing empirical models and estimating value of risk reductions in environment and human health, given the assumption about the individual’s perceptions of risk, and accordingly, the reasonable specifications of risks involved in the models.

Understanding joint and causal relationships among multiple endogenous variables has been of much interest to researchers in the field of activity and travel behavior modeling. Structural equation models have been widely developed for modeling and analyzing the causal relationships among travel time, activity duration, car ownership, trip frequency and activity frequency. In the model, travel time and activity duration are treated as continuous variables, while car ownership, trip frequency and activity frequency as ordered discrete variables. However, many endogenous variables of interest in travel behavior are not continuous or ordered discrete but unordered discrete in nature, such as mode choice, destination choice, trip chaining pattern and time-of-day choice (it can be classified into a few categories such as AM peak, midday, PM peak and off-peak). A modeling methodology with involvement of unordered discrete variables is highly desired for better understanding the causal relationships among these variables. Under this background, the proposed dissertation study will be dedicated into seeking an appropriate modeling methodology which aids in identifying the causal relationships among activity and travel variables including unordered discrete variables. In this dissertation, the proposed modeling methodologies are applied for modeling the causal relationship between three pairs of endogenous variables: trip chaining pattern vs. mode choice, activity timing vs. duration and trip departure time vs.mode choice. The data used for modeling analysis is extracted from Swiss Travel Microcensus 2000. Such models provide us with rigorous criteria in selecting a reasonable application sequence of sub-models in the activity-based travel demand model system.

Dopo l’analisi delle modalità di misurazione del potere di mercato e della competizione tra brand nel contesto di un mercato caratterizzato dalla presenza di prodotti differenziati, viene presentata l’applicazione dei modelli a scelta discreta nel mercato del latte alimentare in Italia. Ho utilizzato dati scanner per analizzare i comportamenti nelle scelte di acquisto dei consumatori e le dinamiche competitive tra i due maggiori brand presenti nel mercato e le marche commerciali. Ho considerato il mercato del latte alimentare suddiviso in due sottocategorie, quella del latte a lunga conservazione (UHT) e quella del latte refrigerato. Ho quindi proceduto alla stima della domanda del latte alimentare utilizzando un nested logit model, appartenente alla categoria dei modelli a scelta discreta. Utilizzando i coefficienti stimati è possibile sia calcolare le elasticità di sostituzione tra i diversi brand e le elasticità dirette, nonché i margini di profitto dei brand presi in analisi considerando differenze nelle strategie di prezzo e nella struttura di mercato. / This work first gives an overview of the measurement of market power and brand competition in a differentiated products market, secondly applies discrete choice models to asses the Italian milk market. I use scanner data to estimate consumer purchasing decisions and competitive relationships between two major industry-level brands and (as a third category) supermarket private labels. I divide all milk sold in Italian market into two distinct classes of products: “UHT” and “Refrigerated” milk. I employ a well-known “discrete choice” nested-logit model to estimate consumer demand. Then, using the estimated coefficients, it is possible to calculate both consumer substitution patterns between products, and the profit-margins of the three major retail-level brands across the different sub-categories of milk under different pricing strategies and market structure.

This D.Phil. thesis develops a new agent-based simulation model to improve the results of analysis, which solely uses discrete choice modelling, as well as to analyse the effects of a road user charging scheme for the Upper Derwent Valley in the Peak District National Park. The advantages of discrete choice analysis are well known. However, results with these conventional conventional approaches, which conduct analysis solely with discrete choice models, can be biased if interaction and learning effects are significant. The Minority Game, in which agents try to choose the option of the minority side, is an appropriate tool to deal with these problems. The situation in the Upper Derwent Valley can be explained with economic game theories and the Minority Game. The two approaches mutually help to analyse the situation in the Upper Derwent Valley leading to the development of a stochastic Minority Game. The stochastic Minority Game was tested with an online game (questionnaire), which was played 3,886 times by response in all around the world. The practical part of this thesis examines the components of the stochastic Minority Game with the data collected around the Upper Derwent Valley. The main data was collected using a stated preference survey. Overall, 700 questionnaires were distributed and 323 of them were returned (i.e. a return rate of 46.1 %). In the practical part, the agent-based model has four sub modules: 1) Multinomial mixed logit model for mode choice, 2) Binary logit model for parking location choice, 3) Markov queue model for parking network, and 4) the Minority Game for parking congestion and learning. This simulation model produces comprehensive outputs including mode choices, congestion levels, and user utilities. The results show that the road user charging scheme reduces car demand in the Upper Derwent Valley and ensures a reduction in congestion at the parking areas. The model also shows that an exemption will increase the utilities of elderly visitors without substantially sacrificing those of younger visitors. In conclusion, the simulation model demonstrated that oversimplification in conventional approaches solely using discrete choice models gave significant biases when real world problems were analysed.

Στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία διερευνήθηκε η επιλογή των πρωτοετών φοιτητών αναφορικά με το τμήμα της πανεπιστημιακής τους εκπαίδευσης στην Ελλάδα. Ειδικότερα, αυτή η επιλογή αξιολογείται μέσω δυο μεταβλητών. Η πρώτη αφορά το αντικείμενο σπουδών με βάση το επιστημονικό περιεχόμενο του προγράμματος σπουδών και η δεύτερη αφορά τις προεξοφλημένες αποδόσεις ανά αντικείμενο σπουδών. Για λόγους εκτίμησης χρησιμοποιήθηκαν δεδομένα για το έτος 2006 από το Ατομικό Δελτίο Φοιτητή-Σπουδαστή της Ελληνικής Στατιστικής Αρχής (Ελ.ΣΤΑΤ) και εφαρμόστηκαν υποδείγματα διακριτής επιλογής με διάταξη (ordered probit) αλλά και χωρίς διάταξη (binary probit). Ως επεξηγηματικές μεταβλητές χρησιμοποιήθηκαν το επίπεδο εκπαίδευσης, το επάγγελμα των γονέων και μια ευρεία δέσμη δημογραφικών μεταβλητών (ηλικία, φύλο, τόπος γέννησης, κ.λπ.). Όπως προέκυψε από τα αποτελέσματα της οικονομετρικής ανάλυσης η επιλογή του πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος (είτε με βάση το αντικείμενο σπουδών είτε με βάση τις προεξοφλημένες αποδόσεις) επηρεάζεται σημαντικά από το οικογενειακό υπόβαθρο (εκπαίδευση, επάγγελμα) του πρωτοετή φοιτητή. Επίσης, διερευνήθηκε η σχέση μεταξύ του οικογενειακού εισοδήματος και της επιλογής πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος με βάση τις μελλοντικές αποδόσεις και βρέθηκε να υπάρχει μια θετική και στατιστικά σημαντική σχέση μεταξύ αυτών των δυο μεταβλητών. Με βάση τα αποτελέσματα της παρούσας εργασίας, η δια-γενεακή κινητικότητα στην Ελλάδα (που σχετίζεται με την επιλογή του πανεπιστημιακού τμήματος από τους πρωτοετείς φοιτητές) αναμένεται να είναι χαμηλή. / In this thesis is investigated the choice of the university major of study of the Greek freshmen. Specifically, this choice of major is assessed through two variables. The first is the object of study based on the scientific content of the curriculum and the second is the discounted returns of education per major of study. For assessment purposes we used data for the year 2006 from the Greek statistic authority (el.stat)and we applied discrete choice models by order (ordered probit) and also without order (binary probit). As explanatory variables are used the educational attainment and occupation of parents as well as a wide range of demographic variables (age,sex,place of birth, etc). As the results of the econometric analysis demonstrate the choice of university department(regardless the type of the discrete choice model we use) is significantly influenced by the family background and their social class. It is also investigated the relationship between family income and choice of university department based on future earnings and is found to be a positive and statistically significant relationship between these two variables. Based on the results of this study the intergenerational mobility in Greece (associated with the major of study the freshmen choose) is expected to be low.

Les régions urbaines alpines et en proximité des Alpes présentent des caractéristiques spécifiques: elles combinent une ressource foncière limitée pour l'urbanisation et une qualité environnementale particulière dans l'arrière-pays. Cette combinaison les rend particulièrement propices à la péri-urbanisation, et potentiellement à la ségrégation sociale. Dans le contexte d'une métropolisation croissante, ces deux processus entravent des objectifs centraux de la planification urbaine, à savoir la compacité des formes urbaines, la mixité fonctionnelle, l'égalité territoriale et la cohésion sociale. Dans les régions urbaines alpines, les liens entre l'environnement montagnard, les politiques de planification et les processus résidentiels à l’œuvre restent toutefois peu connus.Cette thèse analyse la planification urbaine et des choix de localisation résidentielle en région urbaine alpine. Elle cherche à comprendre les liens entre l'environnement montagnard, les politiques de planification urbaine et deux processus résidentiels: la péri-urbanisation et la ségrégation sociale. Son objectif général est de mettre en lumière comment et dans quelle mesure ces processus résidentiels sont influencés par (i) l'environnement montagnard et (ii) les politiques de planification pour ainsi fournir des recommandations pour la planification territoriale en région urbaine. Pour cela, nous nous appuyons sur trois contributions distinctes en utilisant la région urbaine de Grenoble comme zone d'étude centrale.La première contribution porte sur les changements dans la pratique de la planification urbaine contemporaine dans la région d'étude. Basée sur une recherche qualitative, elle se concentre sur l'émergence d'une planification territoriale stratégique et sa montée en échelle vers des périmètres de planification plus larges intégrants les espaces péri-urbains. Le chapitre montre la création de nouvelles arènes de gouvernance qui remettent en question les cultures de planification locale.La deuxième contribution analyse les liens entre les préférences pour l'environnement naturel, les choix de localisation résidentielle et la ségrégation sociale. En utilisant des modèles de choix de localisation pour la région d'étude et la région métropolitaine de Marseille, cette partie présente une analyse de ségrégation contrefactuelle qui compare les résultats de ségrégation og avec fg{} et og sans fg{} les préférences pour l'environnement naturel entre les deux régions. Le principal résultat est que la recherche des milieux naturels par les ménages a des effets significatifs sur la ségrégation sociale. Cette recherche a le plus souvent tendance à renforcer la ségrégation, mais peut également être un facteur d'atténuation.La dernière contribution étudie les liens entre les politiques de planification urbaine et les processus résidentiels. Le chapitre développe un modèle de choix discrets pour créer et analyser des simulations de demande résidentielle pour différents scénarios de politique de planification. Les résultats illustrent que les scénarios tendanciels de planification soutiennent et potentiellement renforcent la périurbanisation dans la région d'étude. Des politiques de planification plus contraignantes semblent capables de freiner et potentiellement d'inverser la dispersion de la demande. Les politiques visant à ré-centraliser la demande tendent à maintenir, voire accroître les niveaux de ségrégation sociale.Les résultats de cette thèse suggèrent l'importance d'une prise en compte plus grande de l'environnement naturel dans la planification urbaine et territoriale. Si les disparités spatiales dans la qualité environnementale contribuent aux processus résidentiels qui portent atteintes aux objectifs du développement urbain, les politiques de planification devraient rendre compte de ces disparités afin de limiter l'étalement urbain, la ségrégation sociale et l'inégalité environnementale, non seulement dans un contexte de région urbaine alpine. / Urban regions in and close to the Alps have specific characteristics: they combine a limited land resource for urban development with particular environmental quality in their mountainous hinterland. This combination makes them particularly prone to peri-urbanisation, and potentially social segregation. In the context of continued metropolisation, both of these processes work against central objectives of urban planning, notably compactness of settlement patterns, functional mix, social equity and cohesion. In Alpine urban regions, the links between the mountain environment, urban planning policies and residential processes remain, however, not well understood.This thesis analyses urban planning and residential moves in an Alpine urban region. It seeks to understand the links between the mountain environment, urban planning and notably two residential processes: peri-urbanisation and social segregation. Its general objective is to investigate how and to what extent these residential processes are influenced by (i) the mountain environment and (ii) urban planning policies and to develop recommendations for urban and regional planning. The thesis does this via three distinct contributions which use the urban region of Grenoble in the French Alps as a central study area.The first contribution addresses changes in contemporary urban planning practice in the study region. Based on qualitative research, it focuses on the shift towards strategic spatial planning and on territorial re-scaling towards large urban-peri-urban planning perimeters. The chapter shows the creation of new governance arenas which call into question local planning cultures.The second contribution investigates the links between preferences for the natural environment, residential moves and social segregation. Using location choice models for the study region and the Marseille metropolitan area, this chapter presents a counterfactual segregation analysis that compares segregation outcomes ``with'' and ``without'' preferences for the natural environment. The main result is that households' search for natural environments has significant impacts on social segregation. It most often contributes to reinforcing segregation, but can also be an attenuating factor.The last contribution investigates the links between urban planning policies and residential processes. The chapter develops a residential location choice model in order to predict and analyse residential demand patterns for different planning policy scenarios in terms of concentration and segregation. The scenario results show that continued trends in urban planning policies would sustain and potentially reinforce peri-urbanisation in the region. Confining planning policies are found to be capable of curbing and potentially reversing demand dispersion. Policies that aim at re-centralising demand sustain and potentially increase social segregation levels.The results of this thesis call for a stronger integration of the natural environment in urban and regional planning. If spatial disparities in environmental qualities contribute to residential processes that are detrimental to compact urban forms and an equitable access to environmental quality, then planning should incorporate and account for these disparities in order to prevent further loss of land resources, socio-spatial fragmentation and environmental inequality, not only in an Alpine urban region context.

Submitted by Letícia Nunes (leticiafcnunes@gmail.com) on 2015-06-11T16:44:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Leticia Nunes - Practice Location of Physicians.pdf: 569206 bytes, checksum: bde07c17bc4ab59a76a947e9fa27f35e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2015-06-18T13:46:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Leticia Nunes - Practice Location of Physicians.pdf: 569206 bytes, checksum: bde07c17bc4ab59a76a947e9fa27f35e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-06-29T12:13:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Leticia Nunes - Practice Location of Physicians.pdf: 569206 bytes, checksum: bde07c17bc4ab59a76a947e9fa27f35e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-29T12:13:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Leticia Nunes - Practice Location of Physicians.pdf: 569206 bytes, checksum: bde07c17bc4ab59a76a947e9fa27f35e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-07 / Economists and policymakers have long been concerned with increasing the supply of health professionals in rural and remote areas. This work seeks to understand which factors influence physicians’ choice of practice location right after completing residency. Differently from previous papers, we analyse the Brazilian missalocation and assess the particularities of developing countries. We use a discrete choice model approach with a multinomial logit specification. Two rich databases are employed containing the location and wage of formally employed physicians as well as details from their post-graduation. Our main findings are that amenities matter, physicians have a strong tendency to remain in the region they completed residency and salaries are significant in the choice of urban, but not rural, communities. We conjecture this is due to attachments built during training and infrastructure concerns.

Submitted by Ricardo Barros de Aquino Fonseca (ricardobafonseca@gmail.com) on 2017-06-28T06:01:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2017-06-30T12:38:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-04T18:13:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo_Fonseca_Dissertacao.pdf: 1923906 bytes, checksum: 31859d5e2f131b25276d0fc435835757 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-28 / I test for the existence of moral hazard and adverse selection in the Brazilian health insurance market. I use the positive correlation test, proposed by Chiappori and Salanié (2000), to assess the existence of asymmetric information in this market. I estimate the effect of health plan on treatment usage, controlling for many variables (measured blood pressure, age, smoker, etc.), identifying the effect of the plan. I use this coefficients as plan characteristics and estimate their effects on plan purchase using a simple logit regression. The coefficients from this estimation show the relative importance of anticipated moral hazard of different treatments on health plan choice. I find evidence of asymmetric information in the market for every state, in either the Metropolitan Area or not, and for the country as a whole. When performing the positive correlation test using hospitalizations as the usage variable, where moral hazard is assumed to be controlled, I find this evidence only for young women and for the last age group (59 years or more). I find no evidence of asymmetric information for plans paid through work, as expected. Several treatments are used more by people with plans, even when controlling for adverse selection. The analysis suggests that some of those are relevant for plan purchase.

Cette thèse se concentre sur l'interdépendance entre les choix de localisation résidentielle et professionnelle. Des questions telles que le processus de prise de décision, l'accessibilité à l'emploi, la répartition géographique des emplois, et le prise de décision collective des conjoints, entre autres, sont analysées en développant des modèles de choix discrets. Dans ce cadre, nous étudions les choix de localisation à partir de deux points de vues complémentaires. (1) Premièrement, nous étudions l'interdépendance entre les deux choix de localisation sans considérer le processus de décision au sein des ménages. Nous développons un modèle logit emboîté à trois niveaux, pour les choix de localisation résidentielle et professionnelle et nous étudions l'effet des mesures d'attractivité et d'accessibilité spécifiques à chaque individu (log-sommes). Les résultats du premier chapitre montrent que l'accessibilité spécifique à chaque individu est un facteur déterminant du choix de localisation résidentielle et que son effet diffère le long du cycle de vie des ménages. L'attractivité des types d'emploi est un meilleur indicateur du choix de localisation professionnelle que le nombre d'emplois. L'évolution des mesures d'attractivité et d'accessibilité aux emplois est analysée dans le deuxième chapitre. (2) Deuxièmement, nous étudions l'interdépendance de la localisation résidentielle et professionnelle au sein du ménage. Cette thèse contribue à la littérature des modèles collectifs en développant un modèle de choix avec processus de négociation au sein des ménages à la Chiappori, pour décrire le choix de localisation résidentielle des ménages bi-actifs. Le dernier chapitre développe et estime un modèle structurel en deux étapes pour faire la part des choses entre le pouvoir de négociation et les valeurs du temps des conjoints. Les résultats montrent que les nationalités du couple, leur niveau d'éducation, ainsi que la différence d'âge entre les conjoints jouent un rôle crucial dans la détermination de pouvoir de négociation. / This thesis studies the interdependency between the choices of residential and workplace location. Issues such as the decision-making process, the accessibility to jobs, the geographical distribution of job types, and the spouses collective decision process, among others, are analyzed with discrete choice models. In this setting, we study the location decisions from two complementary points of view. (1) First, we study the interdependency between the two location choices without any within-household consideration. We develop a three-level nested logit model of residential and workplace location and study the effect of individual-specific attractiveness and accessibility (log-sum) measures. Results presented in the first chapter show that the individual-specific accessibility measure is an important determinant of the choice of residential location and its effect differs along the household life cycle. Additionally, the attractiveness of the types of employment is a better predictor of the workplace location than the usual total number of jobs. We analyze the evolution of the attractiveness and attractivity measures in the second chapter. (2) Second, we study the interdependency of residential location and workplaces within the household. This thesis contributes with a within-household bargaining process model of location decisions. As such, it applies the collectiveapproach à la Chiappori of household behavior to describe residential location choice of two-worker households. The last chapter develops and estimates a two-step structural model to disentangle bargaining powers from spouses' values of time. Results show that the nationalities of the couple, their education level, as well as the age difference between spouses play a crucial role in determining bargaining power.