Cette thèse s’intéresse à l’étude de la stabilité des systèmes à commutation qui évoluent sur un domaine de temps non uniforme en introduisant la théorie des échelles de temps. On s’intéresse essentiellement aux systèmes dynamiques linéaires à commutation définis sur une échelle de temps particulière T = P{tσk ,tk+1} = ∪∞k=0[tσk , tk+1]. Le système étudié commute entre un sous-système dynamique continu sur les intervalles ∪∞k=0[tσk , tk+1[ et un sous-système dynamique discret aux instants ∪∞k=0{tk+1} (à temps discret) avec un pas discret qui varie dans le temps. Dans une première partie, des conditions suffisantes sont données pour garantir la stabilité exponentielle de cette classe de systèmes à commutation. Ensuite, des conditions nécessaires et suffisantes de stabilité sont données en déterminant une région de stabilité exponentielle. Dans une deuxième partie, la stabilité de cette classe des systèmes à commutation avec des perturbations nonlinéaires a été traitée en utilisant des majorations de la solution, puis en introduisant l’approche de la fonction de Lyapunov commune. La troisième partie est consacrée au problème du consensus en présence d’interruptions de transmission d’informations où le système multi-agent en boucle fermée peut être représenté comme un système à commutation par une combinaison de modèles de systèmes linéaires à temps continu et de systèmes linéaires à temps discret. / This thesis deals with the stability analysis of switched systems that evolve on non uniform time domain by introducing the time scale theory. We are interested mainly in dynamical linear switched systems defined on particular time scale T = P{tσk ,tk+1} = ∪∞k=0[tσk, tk+1]. The studied system switches between a continuous-time dynamical subsystem on the intervals ∪∞k=0[tσk, tk+1[ and a discrete-time dynamical subsystem on instants ∪∞k=0{tk+1} (a discrete time) with a time-varying discrete step. In a first part, sufficient conditions are given to guarantee the exponential stability of this class of switched systems. Then necessary and sufficient conditions for stability are given by determining a region of exponential stability. In the second part, the stability of this class of switched systems with nonlinear uncertainties, is treated using majoration of the solution, and after that by introducing the approach of a common Lyapunov function. The third part is devoted to the consensus problem under intermittent information transmissions where the closed-loop multi-agent system can be represented as a switched system using a combination of linear continuous-time and linear discrete-time systems.

Orientador: Cristiane Alexandra Lázaro / Resumo: Esta dissertação tem por objetivo realizar um estudo aprofundado das funções exponenciais e logarítmicas, conteúdo programático para o ensino médio e, em particular, a primeira série. Tal proposta deve-se ao fato de subsidiar o trabalho docente e também de grande parte da classe discente dos dias de hoje encontrar muitas dificuldades de aprendizagem na área de exatas em geral. Com a preocupação em relação a qualidade de ensino ofertada nos dias atuais e, de acordo com os currículos estaduais e base nacional comum curricular (BNCC), propomos a realizar um estudo bibliográfico sobre o tema e aplicar sequências didáticas abordando o assunto com alunos da primeira série do ensino médio. De maneira diversificada, fazendo uso das tecnologias e materiais concretos disponíveis na unidade de ensino a qual pertence a turma, realizamos um trabalho minucioso a fim de diagnosticar as principais defasagens de aprendizagem, as maiores dificuldades, e identificar em tais alunos qual seria a melhor forma de oferecer, de fato, um método eficiente em busca de uma aprendizagem significativa. As atividades propostas foram adaptadas levando em consideração as particularidades e ritmos de aprendizagem de cada aluno, nos preocupando também com a inclusão social, em como atender alunos com dificuldades extremas, o que é de grande desafio para os profissionais da educação nos dias de hoje. Com o presente trabalho oferecemos aos discentes a oportunidade de adquirir conhecimentos básicos para o seu dese... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Mestre

Orientador: Fernando Antonio Moala / Abstract: This work presents a study of probabilistic modeling, with applications to survival analysis, based on a probabilistic model called Exponential Geometric (EG), which o ers great exibility for the statistical estimation of its parameters based on samples of life time data complete and censored. In this study, the concepts of estimators and lifetime data are explored under random censorship in two cases of extensions of the EG model: the Extended Geometric Exponential (EEG) and the Generalized Extreme Geometric Exponential (GE2). The work still considers, exclusively for the EEG model, the approach of the presence of covariates indexed in the rate parameter as a second source of variation to add even more exibility to the model, as well as, exclusively for the GE2 model, a analysis of the convergence, hitherto ignored, it is proposed for its moments. The statistical inference approach is performed for these extensions in order to expose (in the classical context) their maximum likelihood estimators and asymptotic con dence intervals, and (in the bayesian context) their a priori and a posteriori distributions, both cases to estimate their parameters under random censorship, and covariates in the case of EEG. In this work, bayesian estimators are developed with the assumptions that the prioris are vague, follow a Gamma distribution and are independent between the unknown parameters. The results of this work are regarded from a detailed study of statistical simulation applied to... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta um estudo de modelagem probabilística, com aplicações à análise de sobrevivência, fundamentado em um modelo probabilístico denominado Exponencial Geométrico (EG), que oferece uma grande exibilidade para a estimação estatística de seus parâmetros com base em amostras de dados de tempo de vida completos e censurados. Neste estudo são explorados os conceitos de estimadores e dados de tempo de vida sob censuras aleatórias em dois casos de extensões do modelo EG: o Exponencial Geom étrico Estendido (EEG) e o Exponencial Geométrico Extremo Generalizado (GE2). O trabalho ainda considera, exclusivamente para o modelo EEG, a abordagem de presença de covariáveis indexadas no parâmetro de taxa como uma segunda fonte de variação para acrescentar ainda mais exibilidade para o modelo, bem como, exclusivamente para o modelo GE2, uma análise de convergência até então ignorada, é proposta para seus momentos. A abordagem da inferência estatística é realizada para essas extensões no intuito de expor (no contexto clássico) seus estimadores de máxima verossimilhança e intervalos de con ança assintóticos, e (no contexto bayesiano) suas distribuições à priori e posteriori, ambos os casos para estimar seus parâmetros sob as censuras aleatórias, e covariáveis no caso do EEG. Neste trabalho os estimadores bayesianos são desenvolvidos com os pressupostos de que as prioris são vagas, seguem uma distribuição Gama e são independentes entre os parâmetros desconhecidos. Os resultad... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Mestre

Childbearing is often associated with employment interruptions in women’s careers. Since 2005, the German federal government has implemented childcare reforms aiming at expanding the suitable infrastructure for children under the age of three, which should facilitate and accelerate the return to employment. The reforms have been a paradigm shift, because they show a shift from a traditional breadwinner family model to a dual earner-carer model. Despite federal leadership in childcare reforms, the characteristics of the care infrastructure in Germany vary by state and over time, which may contribute to different employment-interruption lengths. The study at hand evaluates Germany’s recent childcare reforms regarding the impact on maternal employment by examining relationships between childcare-characteristics -namely quality and availability- and mothers’ employment interruptions. A piecewise-constant exponential model is used to capture the cross-state and over time differences in childcare and their impact on the timing of women’s return to employment within the first three years after birth of their first child. The study uses individual data from the Pairfam 10.0 study and childcare indicators, which are collected by the federal and state’s statistical bureaus. The risk population includes 927 first-time mothers who gave birth between March 2006 and March 2018. Within this period, 525 first-time mothers return to employment within the first three years after childbirth.   A significant positive effect of the childcare reform on maternal employment is revealed. Both the availability expansion and the quality improvements are associated with earlier returns to employment, establishing both institutional and cultural effects of childcare policies. An educational gradient of the effect of childcare quality on maternal employment was tested, but the results were not significant.

IntroStat was designed to meet the needs of students, primarily those in business, commerce and management, for a course in applied statistics. IntroSTAT is designed as a lecture-book. One of the aims is to maximize the time spent in explaining concepts and doing examples. The book is commonly used as part of first year courses into Statistics.

In introductory biology, college students are taught to predict how populations will grow and change over time by using population growth models. These models are commonly represented as mathematical equations. However, students consistently struggle when math and biology concepts intersect in the classroom, and these struggles lead to suboptimal understanding of how mathematical population models are designed and used. Education literature suggests that students may struggle with population modeling because of math anxiety, the high cognitive load of the task, and the lack of scaffolding for abstract concepts. In our study, we sought to improve student mastery modeling exponential growth, logistic growth, and Lotka-Volterra predator-prey interactions through using pictorial diagrams in modeling pedagogy. We predicted that these diagrams would reduce the amount of triggered math anxiety, lower the cognitive load of the task through reducing element interactivity, and allow for a more scaffolding for abstract symbols through a pictorial representation bridge. To test the effectiveness of population diagrams, we created two versions of a population modeling lesson plan: one version taught using diagrams then equations, while the other taught using purely equations. We also designed practice and assessment questions that tested calculation and model-building ability. We assessed math anxiety, scientific reasoning ability, and math ability at the beginning of the semester and state anxiety, effort of tasks, and difficulty of tasks during each lesson. Over 200 students from a non-major biology course were randomly assigned to each group, and all were given a pre-assessment, four lessons, a practice test, and a unit test on population modeling. Our findings show that while the addition of pictorial models to the traditional pedagogy did not have a significant effect on exponential and logistic growth model mastery, students that were exposed to predator-prey diagrams were more able to create a new model for a three-level predator-prey interaction than students that were only given traditional pedagogy. In addition, students who were exposed to predator-prey interaction diagrams before they derived equations reported a lower cognitive load than students who were only exposed to equations. Although diagrams were not a more helpful calculation tool for students than traditional equations, using population diagrams before to equation derivation may help improve student mastery of growth model creation.

The subject of this thesis is the maximization of the information divergence from an exponential family on a finite set, a problem first formulated by Nihat Ay. A special case is the maximization of the mutual information or the multiinformation between different parts of a composite system. My thesis contributes mainly to the mathematical aspects of the optimization problem. A reformulation is found that relates the maximization of the information divergence with the maximization of an entropic quantity, defined on the normal space of the exponential family. This reformulation simplifies calculations in concrete cases and gives theoretical insight about the general problem. A second emphasis of the thesis is on examples that demonstrate how the theoretical results can be applied in particular cases. Third, my thesis contain first results on the characterization of exponential families with a small maximum value of the information divergence.:1. Introduction 2. Exponential families 2.1. Exponential families, the convex support and the moment map 2.2. The closure of an exponential family 2.3. Algebraic exponential families 2.4. Hierarchical models 3. Maximizing the information divergence from an exponential family 3.1. The directional derivatives of D(*|E ) 3.2. Projection points and kernel distributions 3.3. The function DE 3.4. The first order optimality conditions of DE 3.5. The relation between D(*|E) and DE 3.6. Computing the critical points 3.7. Computing the projection points 4. Examples 4.1. Low-dimensional exponential families 4.1.1. Zero-dimensional exponential families 4.1.2. One-dimensional exponential families 4.1.3. One-dimensional exponential families on four states 4.1.4. Other low-dimensional exponential families 4.2. Partition models 4.3. Exponential families with max D(*|E ) = log(2) 4.4. Binary i.i.d. models and binomial models 5. Applications and Outlook 5.1. Principles of learning, complexity measures and constraints 5.2. Optimally approximating exponential families 5.3. Asymptotic behaviour of the empirical information divergence A. Polytopes and oriented matroids A.1. Polytopes A.2. Oriented matroids Bibliography Index Glossary of notations

In this dissertation, we study the complicated dynamics of two classes of systems: Anosov systems driven by an external force and partially hyperbolic systems driven by an external force. For smooth Anosov systems driven by an external force, we first study the random specification property, which is on the approximation of an N−spaced arbitrary long finite random orbit segments within given precision by a random periodic point. We prove that if such system is topological mixing on fibers, then it has the random specification property. Furthermore, we prove that the homeomorphism induced by such a system on the space of random probability measures also has the specification property. We note that the random specification property implies the positivity of topological fiber entropy. Secondly, we show that if the system is topological mixing on fibers, then its past and future random correlation for Hölder observable functions decay exponentially with respect to the system and the unique random SRB measure. For smooth partially hyperbolic systems driven by an external force, we prove the existence of the random Gibbs u−state, which has absolutely continuous conditional measure on the strong unstable manifolds.

In this thesis, we treat the computation of transforms with asymptotically smooth and oscillatory kernels. We introduce the discrete Laplace transform in a modern form including a generalization to more general kernel functions. These more general kernels lead to specific function transforms. Moreover, we treat the butterfly fast Fourier transform. Based on a local error analysis, we develop a rigorous error analysis for the whole butterfly scheme. In the final part of the thesis, the Laplace and Fourier transform are combined to a fast Fourier transform for nonequispaced complex evaluation nodes. All theoretical results on accuracy and computational complexity are illustrated by numerical experiments.

This paper examines childbearing among Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden. While many studies have focused on immigrants' childbearing in relation to women in the destination country, this study uses a country-of-origin and a country-of-destination approach in order to more thoroughly examine the socialization, selection and adaptation hypotheses. Using a piecewise-exponential model, the transitions to first and second births are analyzed using Swedish register data and the Polish Generations and Gender survey (GGS). The results show that the Polish stayers and the first-generation have relatively similar fertility behavior in the transition to first birth but not in the transition to second birth. However, parts of the similarity in the transition to first birth can be attributed to marital status selection. By examining the 1.5-generation and the second-generation in relation to Swedish natives, it is possible to see fertility convergence across generations, both when it comes to timing and quantum. This study also shows that family migrants have higher risk of having a first child compared to migrants moving for other reasons. However, in the transition to second birth, there is no difference.