A tese por nós aqui apresentada teve por finalidade principal pesquisar a transformação na forma crítica de reprodução fictícia da agroindústria canavieira paulista, entre o Proálcool (1975 1990) e aquela forma de reprodução que começou a se constituir a partir da década de 1990, mas só se estabeleceu no início do século XXI. Para tanto, visitamos teóricos da reprodução e crise do capital que nos auxiliaram a compreender as formas de reprodução fictícia do capital em nível global atualmente, para depois podermos cotejar suas interpretações com a pesquisa por nós realizada acerca da forma atual de reprodução fictícia desta agroindústria canavieira a partir da inflação do preço do açúcar como ativo financeiro nos mercados de futuros internacionais (derivativos). Tal pesquisa nos permitiu abordarmos, também, os impactos da crise econômica do capital de 2007/2008 sobre tal agroindústria, a fim de relacionarmos tal crise com uma discussão sobre a própria crise imanente do capital. As consequências dessa transformação na reprodução fictícia acima mencionada também foram observadas no que diz respeito à terra, conforme características da produção, produtividade e área com cana-de-açúcar; e ao trabalho, por meio da discussão acerca do trabalho do boia-fria e da mecanização do corte de cana-de-açúcar. Podermos sugerir a crise da reprodução da sociabilidade capitalista por meio da historicização de suas categorias (capital, terra e trabalho) atualmente em crise, nos fundamentou para desdobrarmos a crítica da forma mercadoria de relação social e do trabalho como fundamento do capital como ponto de chegada da crítica negativa que pretendemos apresentar como basilar para o movimento do texto como um todo. / The thesis we present here had as its main purpose the research in the transformation of the critical form of sugarcane agroindustry fictitious reproduction, in São Paulo State, between the Proálcool (1975 1990) and the form that started to be constituted in the nineties but only was stablished in the beginning of the twenty first century. Therefore, which helped us to understand the actual forms of global fictitious reproduction of capitalism and then we compared these interpretations with a research about the present form of sugarcane agroindustry fictitious reproduction in the State of São Paulo, which is characterized by sugar price inflation as a financial asset negotiated in international future markets (as a derivative). That research allowed us to approach the impacts in such sugarcane agroindustry of capital economic crisis of 2007/2008 and to relate this crisis with a discussion about capital immanent crisis. The consequences of the mentioned transformation in the sugarcane agroindustry fictitious reproduction in the State of São Paulo also have been observed with regard to land by characterizing sugarcane production, productivity and area; and to labor, through the discussion of boia-fria conditions of labor and the mechanization of sugarcane harvesting. Our suggestion of capitalist social reproduction crisis because of the historical character of its categories (capital, land and labor), currently in crisis, allowed us to unfold the critique to commodity form of social relation and labor as the fundament of capital as the ultimate purpose of the negative critique we intended for the totality of this text.

The work seeks to analyze the causes and impacts of the current financial crisis. It deals with the theoretical view and definition of financial crisis, along with a brief historical excursion. A significant part of the work is devoted to describe the financial crisis in the United States and in selected, economically important, countries. In the context of the causes of and solutions to the current crisis period are remembered views of different economic schools, which are very different. A significant part is devoted to the description of institutional architecture and function of the financial system. Important part is the description of the functioning of lending money (such interest and regulatory policy), because the author sees in it a long series of "unhealthy" factors, which helped the emergence of a financial crisis. The aim of this work is to give a komplete, non-ideological coloring, look at the biggest financial crisis in modern history.

<p>This study examines the behaviour of the South African financial markets with regards to the Geometric Brownian motion process. It uses the daily, weekly, and monthly stock returns time series of some major securities trading in the South African financial market, more specifically the US dollar/Euro, JSE ALSI Total Returns Index, South African All Bond Index, Anglo American Corporation, Standard Bank, Sasol, US dollar Gold Price , Brent spot oil price, and South African white maize near future. The assumptions underlying the&nbsp / Geometric Brownian motion in finance, namely the stationarity, the normality and the independence of stock returns, are tested using both graphical (histograms and normal plots)&nbsp / and statistical test (Kolmogorov-Simirnov test, Box-Ljung statistic and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) methods to check whether or not the Brownian motion as a model for South&nbsp / African financial markets holds. The Hurst exponent or independence index is also applied to support the results from the previous test. Theoretically, the independent or Geometric&nbsp / Brownian motion time series should be characterised by the Hurst exponent of &frac12 / . A value of a Hurst exponent different from that would indicate the presence of long memory or&nbsp / fractional Brownian motion in a time series. The study shows that at least one assumption is violated when the Geometric Brownian motion process is examined assumption by&nbsp / assumption. It also reveals the presence of both long memory and random walk or Geometric Brownian motion in the South African financial markets returns when the Hurst index analysis is used and finds that the Currency market is the most efficient of the South African financial markets. The study concludes that although some assumptions underlying the&nbsp / rocess are violated, the Brownian motion as a model in South African financial markets can not be rejected. It can be accepted in some instances if some parameters such as the Hurst exponent are added.</p>

This thesis consists of four self-contained empirical essays. In the first essays "Markets for Risk and Openness to Trade: How are They Related?" (with Helena Svaleryd), we ask if there is an empirical relationship between financial development and openness to trade. Numerous theoretical papers have noted that trade policies can be used as an insurance against shocks from international markets. It follows that the development of markets for risk should reduce the incentives to rely on trade policy for insurance purposes. Feeney and Hillman (2001) explicitly demonstrate how asset-market incompleteness can affect trade policy in a model where trade policy is determined by the lobbying of interest groups. If risk can be fully diversified, special-interest groups have no incentive to lobby for protection, and free trade will prevail. Likewise, trade liberalization might increase the demand for financial services, thereby spurring the development of financial markets. Using several indicators of both openness to trade and financial development, we find an economically significant relation between the two. In particular, the relation holds when using the well known, although criticized (Rodriguez and Rodrik 1999), Sachs-Warner index, and structurally adjusted trade, as indicators of openness. For tariff levels and non-tariff barriers, the results hold only for relatively rich countries. Causality seems to be running both from openness to financial development and the other way around, depending on which indicator and methodology are used. Due to underlying technological differences, industries differ in their need for external financing (Rajan and Zingales, 1998). Since services provided by the financial sector are largely immobile across countries (Pagano et al., 2001), the pattern of specialization should be influenced by the degree of financial development. In the second essay, "Financial Markets, the Pattern of Specialization, and Comparative Advantage: Evidence from OECD Countries" (with Helena Svaleryd), we find this effect to be strong. In fact, the financial sector has an even greater impact on the pattern of specialization among OECD countries than differences in human- and physical capital. Further, the financial sector gives rise to comparative advantage in a way consistent with the Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek model. Large and active stock markets, as well as the degree of concentration in the banking sector, produce the strongest and most consistent effects. The results also support the view that the quality accounting standards and the legal protection of creditors affect the pattern of industry specialization, while the depth of the financial system (measured by the amount of liquidity in an economy) is a source of comparative advantage. The third essay, "Who Wants Political Integration? Evidence from the Swedish EU-Membership Referendum" looks directly at the determinants of political attitudes towards regional integration and separation. More precisely, the regional voting pattern of the 1994 Swedish EU-membership referendum is analyzed. To explain this variation, an empirical investigation based on the extensive theoretical literature analyzing the determinants of regional economic and political integration is undertaken. Since enhanced possibilities of inter-regional risk sharing is one of the main gains from integration discussed in the literature (e.g Persson and Tabellini, 1996), special attention is given to this issue. The empirical results show that individuals living in labor markets exposed to a high degree of risk were more negative towards EU-membership than those living in safe ones. It is also shown that inhabitants of high-income labor markets, with a high level of schooling and small receipts of central government transfers were relatively positive towards the EU-membership. Given the restrictive regulations limiting discretionary policies within the EU, these results suggest that inhabitants of safe and rich regions voted in favor of secession from the Swedish transfer system, rather than in favor of European integration. In the final essay, "Does Labor Market Risk Increase the Size of the Public Sector? Evidence From Swedish Municipalities", I study if a high degree of private labor-market risk is related to a larger public sector in Swedish municipalities. The theoretical hypothesis is based on Rodrik (1998), who argues (and shows empirically) that countries exposed to a high degree of external risk also tend to have larger governments. The safe public sector is expanded at the expense of risky sectors and hence provides insurance against income volatility. Several problems related to data availability and comparability that apply to cross-country studies are circumvented by using data on Swedish municipalities. Further, there is no need to aggregate the public sector across different levels of governance: local risk is directly related to the size of the local public sector. The paper is not a complete parallel to Rodrik’s study, however. Several alternative insurance mechanisms that do not exist between countries are available between municipalities. For example, the central government provides insurance against individual-specific risk such as unemployment and illness, private capital markets are better integrated within than between countries, and the central government can hand out grants to municipalities. Despite these mitigating factors, local labor-market risk is found to have a substantial impact on municipal public employment. It is also found that shocks increasing the size of the public sector across all municipalities tend to generate a larger increase in risky locations. For municipal public spending and taxation the results are, however, much weaker. Hence, labor-market risk affects the labor intensity of the municipal public sector, rather than its size. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2002</p>

No description available.

Two different sets of problems are addressed in this thesis. The first one is on partially observed semi-Markov Games (POSMG) and the second one is on semi-Markov modulated financial market model. In this thesis we study a partially observable semi-Markov game in the infinite time horizon. The study of a partially observable game (POG) involves three major steps: (i) construct an equivalent completely observable game (COG), (ii) establish the equivalence between POG and COG by showing that if COG admits an equilibrium, POG does so, (iii) study the equilibrium of COG and find the corresponding equilibrium of original partially observable problem. In case of infinite time horizon game problem there are two different payoff criteria. These are discounted payoff criterion and average payoff criterion. At first a partially observable semi-Markov decision process on general state space with discounted cost criterion is studied. An optimal policy is shown to exist by considering a Shapley’s equation for the corresponding completely observable model. Next the discounted payoff problem is studied for two-person zero-sum case. A saddle point equilibrium is shown to exist for this case. Then the variable sum game is investigated. For this case the Nash equilibrium strategy is obtained in Markov class under suitable assumption. Next the POSMG problem on countable state space is addressed for average payoff criterion. It is well known that under this criterion the game problem do not have a solution in general. To ensure a solution one needs some kind of ergodicity of the transition kernel. We find an appropriate ergodicity of partially observed model which in turn induces a geometric ergodicity to the equivalent model. Using this we establish a solution of the corresponding average payoff optimality equation (APOE). Thus the value and a saddle point equilibrium is obtained for the original partially observable model. A value iteration scheme is also developed to find out the average value of the game. Next we study the financial market model whose key parameters are modulated by semi-Markov processes. Two different problems are addressed under this market assumption. In the first one we show that this market is incomplete. In such an incomplete market we find the locally risk minimizing prices of exotic options in the Follmer Schweizer framework. In this model the stock prices are no more Markov. Generally stock price process is modeled as Markov process because otherwise one may not get a pde representation of price of a contingent claim. To overcome this difficulty we find an appropriate Markov process which includes the stock price as a component and then find its infinitesimal generator. Using Feynman-Kac formula we obtain a system of non-local partial differential equations satisfied by the option price functions in the mildsense. .Next this system is shown to have a classical solution for given initial or boundary conditions. Then this solution is used to have a F¨ollmer Schweizer decomposition of option price. Thus we obtain the locally risk minimizing prices of different options. Furthermore we obtain an integral equation satisfied by the unique solution of this system. This enable us to compute the price of a contingent claim and find the risk minimizing hedging strategy numerically. Further we develop an efficient and stable numerical method to compute the prices. Beside this work on derivative pricing, the portfolio optimization problem in semi-Markov modulated market is also studied in the thesis. We find the optimal portfolio selections by optimizing expected utility of terminal wealth. We also obtain the optimal portfolio selections under risk sensitive criterion for both finite and infinite time horizon.

No description available.

<p>This study examines the behaviour of the South African financial markets with regards to the Geometric Brownian motion process. It uses the daily, weekly, and monthly stock returns time series of some major securities trading in the South African financial market, more specifically the US dollar/Euro, JSE ALSI Total Returns Index, South African All Bond Index, Anglo American Corporation, Standard Bank, Sasol, US dollar Gold Price , Brent spot oil price, and South African white maize near future. The assumptions underlying the&nbsp / Geometric Brownian motion in finance, namely the stationarity, the normality and the independence of stock returns, are tested using both graphical (histograms and normal plots)&nbsp / and statistical test (Kolmogorov-Simirnov test, Box-Ljung statistic and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) methods to check whether or not the Brownian motion as a model for South&nbsp / African financial markets holds. The Hurst exponent or independence index is also applied to support the results from the previous test. Theoretically, the independent or Geometric&nbsp / Brownian motion time series should be characterised by the Hurst exponent of &frac12 / . A value of a Hurst exponent different from that would indicate the presence of long memory or&nbsp / fractional Brownian motion in a time series. The study shows that at least one assumption is violated when the Geometric Brownian motion process is examined assumption by&nbsp / assumption. It also reveals the presence of both long memory and random walk or Geometric Brownian motion in the South African financial markets returns when the Hurst index analysis is used and finds that the Currency market is the most efficient of the South African financial markets. The study concludes that although some assumptions underlying the&nbsp / rocess are violated, the Brownian motion as a model in South African financial markets can not be rejected. It can be accepted in some instances if some parameters such as the Hurst exponent are added.</p>

Magister Legum - LLM

Eventi come l’ultima crisi finanziaria sono una delle principali cause di perdite inattese negli investimenti finanziari. Infatti, durante una crisi finanziaria, la volatilità dei rendimenti azionari aumenta a causa degli shock dei mercati, incrementando la probabilità di perdita. Per fronteggiare gli effetti della crisi gli investitori , sfruttando possibili informazioni provenienti dai mercati, dovrebbero impostare con anticipo le proprie strategie di investimento e gestirli in modo appropriato per limitare gli effetti degli shock. In base a tali considerazioni si è analizzato, con tale studio, la capacità di predizione da parte di alcune variabili finanziarie/economiche ( BSEYD e Term Yield Spread) dell’andamento dei principali mercati europei ( Germania, Francia e Spagna) e si è definita un appropriata strategia di investimento per i periodi di crisi, costruendo un modello di portafoglio neutrale agli shock. I periodi analizzati sono stati rispettivamente : 1994-2013 e 2003-2014. I risultati hanno dimostrato che le variabili analizzate presentano diverso potere di predizione dei mercati considerati e che la perfomance del portafoglio neutrale agli shock di mercato è migliore di quella del portafoglio market neutral nei periodi di crisi. / Events like the last financial crisis are one of the principal causes of unexpected loss in investments. During a financial crisis period the stock return volatility increases for effect of internal and external shocks and the probability of reaching the expected return become lower , increasing the probability of loss. To face crisis effects, international investors should consider possible signals and information present in the market about possible crashes or declining period to set in advance their investment strategies and to manage them properly to limit the shock effects. On the basis of these considerations, with this study, we analyzed the predictive power of 2 economic/ financial variables( BSEYD and Term spread yield) on principal European stock markets (France, Germany and Spain) and defined a proper investment strategy for financial crisis period, building a portfolio model that is neutral to the international market shocks. The study has been conducted in two periods: 1994-2013 ( prediction analysis) and 2003-2014 (shock neutral portfolio mode). Results show different predictive power on the of the variables on the different markets analyzed and a better performance of the shock neutral portfolio than the market neutral portfolio strategy in declining period of the market.