This paper gives an estimation of efficient frontiers for investment portfolios, they include stocks from Lima Stock Exchange General Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Cooper, Fixed Income Instruments of Peruvian government and savings in Peruvian financial institutions. The paper concludes that risk of investment in local portfolio reduces as a consequence of diversification, gold is an important asset and contributes to reduce portfolio risk. / El presente trabajo estima la frontera eficiente, en portafolios de inversión diversificados en acciones que componen el Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (IGBVL), acciones que componen el Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), oro, cobre, instrumentos de renta fija del Gobierno peruano e instrumentos de ahorro bancario. Se concluye que el riesgo de portafolios de inversión de acciones que componen el IGVBL disminuye como consecuencia de la diversificación; un activo relevante es el oro que contribuye a disminuir significativamente el riesgo del portafolio.

Submitted by Marcelo Seita (mrseita@gmail.com) on 2014-08-20T16:21:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão_4.3.pdf: 1745536 bytes, checksum: ae0ce9636f907bd1139ff730270fa1ce (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-08-20T16:29:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão_4.3.pdf: 1745536 bytes, checksum: ae0ce9636f907bd1139ff730270fa1ce (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T19:02:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão_4.3.pdf: 1745536 bytes, checksum: ae0ce9636f907bd1139ff730270fa1ce (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-07-29 / Aiming to establish a methodology capable of segregate market’s moments and identifying investors's characteristics acting on a given financial market, this study employs simulations created by an Agent-based Artificial Financial Market, using a Genetic Algorithm to adjust such simulations to the real observed historic data. For this purpose, a Bovespa's index future contracts application was developed. This methodology could easily be extended to other financial markets by simply changing the model's parameters. Over the foundations established by Toriumi et al. (2011), significant contributions were achieved, promoting knowledge enhancements on the chosen target market, as well as on Artificial Financial Market modelling techniques, and also on the application of Genetic Algorithm into financial markets, resulting on experiments and analysis that suggest the efficacy of the methodology herein proposed. / Com o objetivo de estabelecer uma metodologia capaz segregar momentos de mercado e de identificar as características predominantes dos investidores atuantes em um determinado mercado financeiro, este trabalho emprega simulações geradas em um Mercado Financeiro Artificial baseado em agentes, utilizando um Algoritmo Genético para ajustar tais simulações ao histórico real observado. Para tanto, uma aplicação foi desenvolvida utilizando-se o mercado de contratos futuros de índice Bovespa. Esta metodologia poderia facilmente ser estendida a outros mercados financeiros através da simples parametrização do modelo. Sobre as bases estabelecidas por Toriumi et al. (2011), contribuições significativas foram atingidas, promovendo acréscimo de conhecimento acerca tanto do mercado alvo escolhido, como das técnicas de modelagem em Mercados Financeiros Artificiais e também da aplicação de Algoritmos Genéticos a mercados financeiros, resultando em experimentos e análises que sugerem a eficácia do método ora proposto.

Submitted by Fernando Reis de Odriozola (odriozola.fernando@gmail.com) on 2015-09-21T04:39:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Fernando R Odriozola.pdf: 881210 bytes, checksum: 13c5e46a6da326c976883920a7af7eb6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-21T23:06:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Fernando R Odriozola.pdf: 881210 bytes, checksum: 13c5e46a6da326c976883920a7af7eb6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-22T13:32:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Fernando R Odriozola.pdf: 881210 bytes, checksum: 13c5e46a6da326c976883920a7af7eb6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-24 / For complex systems, traditional analytical-approach with differential equations sometimes results in intractable solutions. An alternative approach could be through Agents-Based Models as a complementary tool witch systems can be modeled from their constituent parts and interactions. Financial Markets are good examples of complex system and thus Agent-Based Models would be a correct approach. This paper implements an Artificial Financial Market composed by market makers, information broadcasters and a set of heterogeneous agents who trade assets through a Continuous Double Auction mechanism. Several aspects of the simulation were investigated to consolidate their understanding and thus contribute to the design of models, where we can highlight, among others: distinctions between Discrete and Continuous Double Auction; implications of Market Maker spread settings; Budget Constraints effects on agents and Analysis of pricing formation in offer submissions. Thinking about the adherence of the model to the Brazilian market reality, a method named Inverse Simulation is used to calibrate the input parameters in a way that the output matches historical market price series. / Na modelagem de sistemas complexos, abordagens analíticas tradicionais com equações diferenciais muitas vezes resultam em soluções intratáveis. Para contornar este problema, Modelos Baseados em Agentes surgem como uma ferramenta complementar, onde o sistema é modelado a partir de suas entidades constituintes e interações. Mercados Financeiros são exemplos de sistemas complexos, e como tais, o uso de modelos baseados em agentes é aplicável. Este trabalho implementa um Mercado Financeiro Artificial composto por formadores de mercado, difusores de informações e um conjunto de agentes heterogêneos que negociam um ativo através de um mecanismo de Leilão Duplo Contínuo. Diversos aspectos da simulação são investigados para consolidar sua compreensão e assim contribuir com a concepção de modelos, onde podemos destacar entre outros: Diferenças do Leilão Duplo Contínuo contra o Discreto; Implicações da variação do spread praticado pelo Formador de Mercado; Efeito de Restrições Orçamentárias sobre os agentes e Análise da formação de preços na emissão de ofertas. Pensando na aderência do modelo com a realidade do mercado brasileiro, uma técnica auxiliar chamada Simulação Inversa, é utilizada para calibrar os parâmetros de entrada, de forma que trajetórias de preços simulados resultantes sejam próximas à séries de preços históricos observadas no mercado.

Submitted by Felipe Tumenas Marques (tumenas@gmail.com) on 2017-03-29T01:41:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Felipe_Tumenas_Marques_final.pdf: 2728325 bytes, checksum: 6b225283898e29f381445d0e0e404074 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2017-03-30T10:02:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Felipe_Tumenas_Marques_final.pdf: 2728325 bytes, checksum: 6b225283898e29f381445d0e0e404074 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-30T12:05:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Felipe_Tumenas_Marques_final.pdf: 2728325 bytes, checksum: 6b225283898e29f381445d0e0e404074 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-23 / This thesis aims to explore possible conflicts of interest between the activities of agents in the Brazilian financial market, especially banks, investment funds and analysts. In the first chapter, the focus is the possible lack of a Chinese Wall between the investment banking activities and the asset management unit of the same bank during the bond underwriting process. The conflict of interest analyzed is the possible use of funds under management of the same bank to allocate bond issuances that would not have sufficient demand in the market. The paper proposes an empirical study of bonds issued in Brazil between 2005 and 2015. The results show that bond 'excess return' at the time of issuance is negative when there is allocation of funds associated with the underwriter, supporting the thesis of conflict of interest. However, when the associated funds are for Institutional Investors, the 'excess return' is positive indicating that the better monitoring of the fund's activities could serve as mitigation for the conflict of interest. In the second chapter the assessed conflict of interest is the funding activities of banks and the rates obtained by investment funds from fixed income assets issued by banks. The hypothesis tested is that affiliated funds obtain a lower yield than non-affiliated funds on the same assets. To test this hypothesis, an empirical study was conducted in Brazil with the rates of Letra Financeira, from the beginning of its emergence in 2010 until the end of 2015. The results point that funds, when investing in Letras Financeiras of the controlling bank, obtain a lower yield than that obtained by funds not affiliated to the same bank. However, like the results obtained in the previous chapter, this effect is not observed in funds for Institutional Investors. Corroborating the idea that better monitoring can mitigate the conflict of interest involved. Finally, the third chapter analyzes two possible conflicts of interest derived from the relationship between the opinions of stock analysts and the investments of the funds affiliated to the same bank. The first hypothesis is about optimism of the analysts as the affiliated funds have a large volume of investment in the stock. The second hypothesis is about Front Running, where funds anticipate changes in analysts' opinions of the same bank. The database used in this study was the opinion of all analysts covering Brazilian stocks for 10 years, from 2005 to 2015. The results suggest that: (i) there is an optimism of analysts associated with Brazilian banks related to the volume invested by affiliated funds, and (ii) the evidence does not support the hypothesis of front running by the funds. / Esta tese tem por objetivo examinar possíveis conflitos de interesse entre as atividades dos agentes atuantes no mercado financeiro brasileiro, especialmente bancos, fundos de investimentos e analistas. No primeiro capítulo, analisa-se o conflito de interesse da possível falta de um Chinese Wall entre as operações de banco de investimento e a área de fundos de investimento de um mesmo banco durante o processo de emissão de debêntures. O conflito de interesse analisado é a possível utilização dos fundos de investimentos sob a gestão do banco coordenador para alocar emissões que não teriam demanda suficiente no mercado. Para analisar este conflito de interesse foi realizado um estudo empírico das emissões de debêntures realizadas no Brasil entre 2005 e 2015. Os resultados mostram que o ‘retorno em excesso’ das debêntures no momento de emissão é negativo quando há alocação dos fundos de investimento associados ao banco coordenador da emissão, indicando a possibilidade do conflito de interesse. Porém, quando os fundos associados são destinados a Investidores Qualificados, o ‘retorno em excesso’ é positivo indicando que o possível melhor monitoramento das atividades do fundo serve de mitigador para o conflito de interesse. No segundo capítulo o conflito de interesse avaliado são as atividades de captação dos bancos e as taxas obtidas pelos fundos de investimento nos ativos de renda fixa emitidos pelos bancos. A hipótese testada é que o fundo associado aos bancos obtém uma taxa de retorno menor que os fundos não associados nos mesmos ativos emitidos por estes bancos. Para avaliar esta hipótese foi realizado um estudo empírico no Brasil com as taxas das Letras Financeiras, desde o início de seu surgimento em 2010 até o final de 2015. Os resultados apontam que os fundos, ao investirem em Letras Financeiras do banco controlador, obtém uma taxa menor que a obtida por outros fundos em Letras Financeiras deste mesmo banco. Porém, assim como os resultados obtidos no capítulo anterior, este efeito não é observado em fundos destinados a Investidores Qualificados, o que corrobora a ideia de que um melhor monitoramento pode mitigar o conflito de interesses envolvido. Por fim, no terceiro capítulo, são analisados dois possíveis conflitos de interesse derivados da relação entre as opiniões dos analistas de ações e os investimentos dos fundos do mesmo banco. O primeiro conflito é sobre o otimismo dos analistas conforme os fundos associados ao mesmo banco possuem um grande volume de investimento nas ações avaliadas. O segundo conflito é sobre o Front Running, onde os fundos obtem retornos antecipando as mudanças de opiniões dos analistas relacionados ao mesmo banco. Foram avaliadas as opiniões de todos os analistas que cobrem as ações brasileiras por 10 anos. Os resultados sugerem que: (i) existe um indicativo de otimismo dos analistas associados aos bancos brasileiros quanto maior o volume de recursos aplicado pelos fundos associados e que (ii) as evidências não dão suporte à hipótese de front running por parte dos fundos.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:52:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5225.pdf: 1116958 bytes, checksum: dcbccf867d0ca0f26168d7a63bc527d2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-21 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / In the last two decades there has been a lot of changes in organizational dynamics in Brazil, because the principles of financial capitalism went into effect on the national economy. The starting point of these changes were the mergers and acquisitions that occurred in the 1990s. Through these ones, international companies came to Brazil and brought with them financial principles that dominated the international economy. Among these principles, the Corporate Governance and Industry Venture Capital (venture capital and private equity) are outstanding. In this new Brazilian scenario an actor of extreme relevance is the State; it acts directly on financial markets through BNDESPAR, which is a subsidiary of the National Development Bank (BNDES). This action occurs through industry venture capital (venture capital and private equity), and its goal is to promote the development of domestic enterprises. The empirical data of this study indicate that BNDESPAR can act in Brazilian companies through venture capital industry due to corporate governance, this tool enables the monitoring of BNDES subsidiary in corporations which it owns. Thus, the Corporate Governance being a tool that attends to the interests of the State, it is disseminated via BNDESPAR in Brazilian companies. For BNDESPAR, promoting the company in the segment of venture capital involves raising it to go public on the stock exchange. On the other hand, through the private equity segment, it involves establishing the main indices of corporate governance in the investee companies. It also verified the performance of the actors responsible by BNDESPAR. The data indicate that these actors have primarily political experience and expertise in finance. We analyzed also the actors who occupied the positions of elite at BNDES in the last 10 years, it was mainly realized that these actors, in fact, after they have passed through the state bank, they are founded private equity funds or they are acting as CEO on boards of companies. / Nas últimas duas décadas aconteceram mudanças na dinâmica organizacional brasileira, pois os princípios de capitalismo financeiro passaram a vigorar na economia nacional. O ponto de partida dessas mudanças foram os movimentos de fusões e aquisições ocorridos na década de 1990. Através deles as empresas internacionais chegaram ao Brasil e trouxeram consigo os princípios financeiros que dominavam na economia internacional. Dentre esses princípios, destaca-se a Governança Corporativa e a Indústria de Capital de Risco (venture capital e private equity). Nesse novo cenário brasileiro um ator de extrema relevância é o Estado, ele atua diretamente nos mercados financeiros através da BNDESPAR, subsidiária do Banco Nacional do Desenvolvimento (BNDES). Essa atuação ocorre por meio da indústria de capital de risco (venture capital e private equity) e por meio de participação acionária em empresas com capital aberto, e seu objetivo é fomentar o desenvolvimento das empresas nacionais. Os dados empíricos desse trabalho indicam que a BNDESPAR consegue atuar nas empresas brasileiras por meio da Indústria de Capital de Risco devido a Governança Corporativa, essa ferramenta viabiliza o monitoramento da subsidiária do BNDES nas corporações que ela possui participação. Dessa forma, a Governança Corporativa por ser uma ferramenta que atende aos interesses do Estado, é difundida através da BNDESPAR nas empresas brasileiras. Para a BNDESPAR, fomentar a empresa no segmento de capital de risco envolve elevá-la a abrir capital em bolsa de valores. Já por meio do segmento de participação em empresas de capital aberto envolve instituir os principais índices de Governança Corporativa nas empresas investidas. Também se verificou os atores responsáveis pela atuação da BNDESPAR. Os dados indicam que esses atores possuem principalmente experiência política e experiência em finanças. Analisaram-se também os atores que ocuparam os cargos de elite no BNDES nos últimos 10 anos, percebeu-se, principalmente, que esses atores, depois que passaram pelo banco estatal, fundaram fundos de private equity ou estão atuando como CEO em conselhos de administração de empresas.

La notion d’ « obligation financière » est issue de la directive 2002/47/CE du Parlement européen et du Conseil du 6 juin 2002 concernant les contrats de garantie financière. Il s’agit de la directive Collateral. L’obligation financière est l’obligation garantie par un contrat de garantie financière. La transposition française est intervenue par voie d’ordonnance en 2005. Cette sûreté réelle conventionnelle qui garantit l’exécution des obligations financières bénéficie d’un régime spécial et dérogatoire. Cette garantie est spéciale parce qu’elle vise des personnes spécifiques, celles qui sont soumises à des obligations prudentielles, et des opérations spécifiques, les opérations financières. Cette garantie est dérogatoire, car son efficacité implique de lui conférer une immunité. En effet, la garantie des obligations financières ne saurait être remise en cause en raison de l’application des dispositions de droit des procédures civiles d’exécution et de droit des procédures collectives. En outre, le dispositif Collateral prévoit une règle de conflit de lois désignant la loi de l’État dans lequel est ouvert le compte au crédit duquel les titres financiers sont inscrits. L’étude de l’obligation garantie subit une double influence. La première est celle de la garantie puisque l’obligation financière a été conçue en contemplation de celle-ci. La seconde est celle de la logique collective de l’opération de marché. L’objectif du dispositif est d’assurer la stabilité du système financier, c’est-à-dire des entités qui le composent : les marchés, les intermédiaires et les infrastructures. / The locution "financial obligations" is issued from the directive 2002/47/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 june 2002 on financial collateral arrangements. The financial obligation is the obligation which is secured by a financial collateral arrangement. The directive has been implemented in France in 2005. The financial collateral arrangment presents a special and derogatory legal system of financial collateral arrangements must be immune to all provisions which couldannhilate its efficiency. Indeed, the provisions of insolvency law and of civil enforcement procedures law, those that wouldinhibit the effective realisation of financial collateral or cast doubt on the valitdity of current techniques such as bilateral close out netting, do not apply to such arrangements. Besides, the directive contains a special conflict law rules. The law of the country where the financial collateral is located, that is to say the law of country in which the relevant account is maintained, is applicable. Thisstudy demonstrates that the financial obligations are impacted by two main influences : first, by this specialguarance, then, by the capital markets multilateral approach. The goal is to protect the performance of the financial obligations in order to protect all the financial system, by insuring its stability.

Selon les théoriciens de la transparence, qui de tous horizons disciplinaires, en clament les vertus, l’information financière permet l’équilibre, en remédiant à l’asymétrie de connaissances entre l’émetteur et ses dirigeants, d’une part et les destinataires de l’information financière, d’autre part. Elle lève le voile, combat l’opacité, permet la décision et donc, le jeu même du marché. Les économistes parlent alors d’ « efficience informationnelle » car la circulation fluide et rapide des flux d’information en provenance ou en direction de tous les acteurs des marchés boursiers (émetteurs et dirigeants, opérateurs, actionnaires, autorités de régulation, presse, …) permettraient de fournir à tout instant la meilleure valorisation possible des entreprises cotées compte tenu des informations pertinentes publiquement disponibles. Pour ces raisons, de nombreuses réformes ont été opérées ces dernières années afin de multiplier les obligations d’information à la charge des sociétés cotées. Cependant, force est de constater, au vu de la dernière crise financière, que les marchés peuvent ne pas fonctionner efficacement et évaluer correctement la valeur fondamentale d’un actif financier, alors même que les informations relatives à l’actif sous-jacent sont largement diffusées. De là, se pose la question de la pertinence de la transparence des sociétés cotées. / According to theorists of the transparency who of any disciplinary horizons cry out the virtues, the financial information permits the balance by remedying the asymmetry of knowledge between the company and his management on one hand, and the addressees of the financial information on the other hand. The transparency raises the veil, fights the opaqueness, permit the decision and thus, the game of the market. The economists speak then about “informative efficiency” because the fluid and fast circulation of the flows of information in origin or in the direction of all the actors of stock markets (company, management, operators, shareholders, authorities of regulation, press …) would permit to supply all the time the best possible valuation of listed companies considering the publicly available relevant information. For these reasons, many reforms were operated these last years in order to increase the obligations of information towards listed companies. However, we have to admit, in view of the last financial crisis that markets can not work effectively and estimate correctly the fundamental value of a financial asset while the information relative to the underlying asset is widely broadcasted. From there, we have to ask the question of the relevance of the listed companies’ transparency.

O presente estudo tem dois objetivos. O primeiro (1) é substantivo: contribuir com o debate sobre globalização financeira, ajudando a nele incorporar uma dimensão que parecia um pouco fora de foco em diversas discussões a dimensão jurídico-institucional empírica. O segundo (2) é metodológico, e não se relaciona diretamente com o objeto da pesquisa: ajudar a incorporar ao estudo do direito no Brasil a utilização de certas técnicas empíricas que permitiriam o exercício mais freqüente do que se será chamado aqui de ceticismo esclarecido pela empiria o salutar questionamento de afirmações doutrinais peremptórias com o auxílio de evidência empírica. Em relação ao objetivo (1), apresenta-se a seguinte tese. A globalização financeira é produto de diversos processos heterogêneos de cooperação internacional, políticas governamentais, reformas legislativas e estratégias políticas. Tais processos têm determinantes diversos, e objetivos variados, não apenas liberalização. De fato, mera liberalização unilateral não daria suporte suficiente ao aumento de fluxos financeiros transfronteiriços a globalização só pôde e só pode ocorrer em vista da criação de uma diversidade de estruturas internacionais, incluídas aí as bilaterais, plurilaterais e multilaterais. Estas resultaram em uma densa malha jurídico-institucional que, para ser criada, demandou mudanças por diversas vezes dolorosas e custosas aos países que as implantaram, assim como grandes esforços de negociação. Somente porque existe essa malha jurídica, cuja origem é a atividade política dos governos nacionais, é que investidores e empresas financeiras puderam e podem cruzar fronteiras, deter ativos no estrangeiro, e fazê-los circular em nível global. A globalização é resultado, não da abdicação e retração dos Estados, mas do ativo engajamento de seus governos na persecução de objetivos de política pública. Trata-se, portanto, de uma reação a interpretações concorrentes, segundo as quais a globalização financeira estaria sendo causada pela retração dos Estados Nacionais, que estariam se retirando da atividade regulatória, de forma geral, e da regulação das finanças, de formas mais específicas. A primeira parte consiste de dois capítulos discutindo os arranjos jurídico-institucionais que geraram a globalização financeira. A metodologia utilizada foi primordialmente qualitativa. Realizaram-se reconstruções institucionais comparadas, discutindo a evolução de certos arranjos de governança do sistema financeiro. Dois conjuntos de análises de casos foram realizados: (a) uma sobre a formação comparada de Sistemas Financeiros Nacionais, e (b) outra sobre processos comparados de integração financeira. A segunda parte consiste de um capítulo discutindo correlações entre indicadores econômicos e processos de globalização financeira. Aplicaram-se métodos econométricos sobre uma grande base de dados reunida e criada exclusivamente para esta pesquisa. / This study has two objectives. The first (1) is substantive: to contribute to the debate on globalization by helping to incorporate to it a dimension that has been somewhat left aside in many discussions the legal-institutional dimension. The second (2) is methodological, and not directly related to the subject of research: to help incorporating to the study of law in Brazil the use of certain empirical techniques that allow the exercise of what can be called a skepticism enlightened by the empiricism - the healthy questioning of doctrinal statements with the aid of empirical evidence. In relation of (1), the following thesis is advanced. Financial globalization is the product of several heterogeneous processes of international cooperation, government policies, legislative reforms and legal strategies. These processes have several determinants, and varied objectives, not just liberalization. In fact, a mere unilateral liberalization process would not give enough support to increase cross-border financial flows - globalization could only and may only occur in view of a diversity of international structures, including bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral agreements. These resulted in a dense mesh of legal and institutional structures, that to be created, demanded changes several times painful and costly to the countries that have implemented, as well as major efforts to negotiate. Only because of such legal tissue, whose origin is the political activity of national governments, is that investors and financial institutions could and can cross borders, holding assets abroad, and circulate them globally. Globalization is the result, not the abdication of the retraction, but the active engagement of governments in their pursuit of public policy objectives. The thesis is therefore a reaction to competing interpretations, under which financial globalization was being caused by the retraction of nation states, they were withdrawing from regulatory activity, in general, and regulation of finance, more specific forms. The first part consists of two chapters discussing the legal and institutional arrangements that led to financial globalization. The methodology was primarily qualitative. There were institutional compared reconstructions, discussing the evolution of certain governance arrangements of the financial system. Two sets of case studies were conducted: (a) training on a comparison of national financial systems, and (b) the other on the comparative analysis of financial integration. The second part consists of a chapter discussing correlations between economic indicators and processes of financial globalization. Were applied econometric methods on a large database collected and created exclusively for this research.

A partir de 1996 pour combattre une inflation galopante, Haïti a mis en place une politique de ciblage de la masse monétaire avec un objectif d’inflation. La forte inflation a pris naissance dans l’accumulation du déficit budgétaire et le financement monétaire de celui-ci par le seigneuriage. Cette pratique du financement par l’impôt inflationniste engendre donc un problème de crédibilité, en dépit de la double circulation monétaire caractérisée par un niveau élevé de dollarisation de l’économie qui a atteint 50% dès 2004. La politique monétaire mise en œuvre vise à éviter le biais inflationniste et différentes approches pour améliorer la crédibilité ont été considérées. La crise économique commencée en 2007 dans les pays développés, est née de l’instabilité des marchés financiers et a obligé la mise en place de politique monétaire non conventionnelle afin d’éviter la trappe de liquidité. Cette crise a donné lieu à une accumulation de réserves internationales et un faible taux d’intérêt dans les économies des pays émergents et les économies des pays sous-développés. Il devenait évident que le fondement théorique de la stratégie de politique monétaire demeure la recherche à la fois de la stabilité monétaire et la stabilité des marchés financiers afin de conserver la crédibilité et l’efficacité de la politique monétaire des banques centrales. L’utilisation abusive faite par la FED aux USA de l’assouplissement quantitatif, fait craindre une crise de la dette souveraine des Etats, la création de bulle spéculative, et un retour à la récession. Avec le cas d’Haïti, les anticipations ne sont pas rationnelles à cause des erreurs de prévisions. Une analyse jointe des taux des banques, en utilisant un modèle VECM, ne nous a pas permis de trouver un taux d’équilibre de long terme entre eux. Le test de Seo conclu que les chocs ont affecté la dynamique de ces taux. Les accords avec le FMI ont permis une très faible amélioration de l’efficacité de la politique monétaire avec l’accumulation de réserves dans la foulée de la crise qui a démarré en 2007. / Since 1996 in order to fight inflation, Haiti put in place a monetary policy targeting money supply with inflation target. Inflation high gets started from budget deficit accumulation and monetary financing by seigniorage. This practice of financing by inflationary taxes implies a problem of credibility of monetary policy even with a double monetary circulation and a dollarization of the economy reaching 50% since 2004. The monetary policy implementation aims to avoid inflation bias and different approaches for improving credibility has been considered. The economic crisis started in 2007 created by the instability of the financial markets, forced the establishment of non-conventional monetary policy to avoid the liquidity trap. This crisis has resulted in an accumulation of international reserves and low interest rate in emerging economies and the economies of underdeveloped countries. It became more and more evident that the theoretical basis of the monetary policy strategy remains looking for both, monetary stability and the stability of the financial markets, in order to maintain the credibility and efficiency of the monetary policy of central banks. The misuse made by the FED in the USA of quantitative easing, rise concerns about a crisis of sovereign debt of the Sates, the creation of speculative bubble, and a possible return to the recession. With the case of Haiti, the expectations are not rationales because of forecast errors. A joint analysis of banks interests’ rates using a VECM model has not enabled us to find a long run equilibrium rate between them. The Seo test concluded that chocks affect the dynamic of both rates. The agreements with the IMF allowed improving weakly the monetary policy efficiency with the accumulation of international reserves in the wake of the crisis which started in 2007.

Scale invariance, collective behaviours and structural reorganization are crucial for portfolio management (portfolio composition, hedging, alternative definition of risk, etc.). This lack of any characteristic scale and such elaborated behaviours find their origin in the theory of complex systems. There are several mechanisms which generate scale invariance but maximum entropy models are able to explain both scale invariance and collective behaviours.<p>The study of the structure and collective modes of financial markets attracts more and more attention. It has been shown that some agent based models are able to reproduce some stylized facts. Despite their partial success, there is still the problem of rules design. In this work, we used a statistical inverse approach to model the structure and co-movements in financial markets. Inverse models restrict the number of assumptions. We found that a pairwise maximum entropy model is consistent with the data and is able to describe the complex structure of financial systems. We considered the existence of a critical state which is linked to how the market processes information, how it responds to exogenous inputs and how its structure changes. The considered data sets did not reveal a persistent critical state but rather oscillations between order and disorder.<p>In this framework, we also showed that the collective modes are mostly dominated by pairwise co-movements and that univariate models are not good candidates to model crashes. The analysis also suggests a genuine adaptive process since both the maximum variance of the log-likelihood and the accuracy of the predictive scheme vary through time. This approach may provide some clue to crash precursors and may provide highlights on how a shock spreads in a financial network and if it will lead to a crash. The natural continuation of the present work could be the study of such a mechanism. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished