Chaque jour, des décisions doivent être prises quant à la quantité d'hydroélectricité produite au Québec. Ces décisions reposent sur la prévision des apports en eau dans les bassins versants produite à l'aide de modèles hydrologiques. Ces modèles prennent en compte plusieurs facteurs, dont notamment la présence ou l'absence de neige au sol. Cette information est primordiale durant la fonte printanière pour anticiper les apports à venir, puisqu'entre 30 et 40% du volume de crue peut provenir de la fonte du couvert nival. Il est donc nécessaire pour les prévisionnistes de pouvoir suivre l'évolution du couvert de neige de façon quotidienne afin d'ajuster leurs prévisions selon le phénomène de fonte. Des méthodes pour cartographier la neige au sol sont actuellement utilisées à l'Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec (IREQ), mais elles présentent quelques lacunes. Ce mémoire a pour objectif d'utiliser des données de télédétection en micro-ondes passives (le gradient de températures de brillance en position verticale (GTV)) à l'aide d'une approche statistique afin de produire des cartes neige/non-neige et d'en quantifier l'incertitude de classification. Pour ce faire, le GTV a été utilisé afin de calculer une probabilité de neige quotidienne via les mélanges de lois normales selon la statistique bayésienne. Par la suite, ces probabilités ont été modélisées à l'aide de la régression linéaire sur les logits et des cartographies du couvert nival ont été produites. Les résultats des modèles ont été validés qualitativement et quantitativement, puis leur intégration à Hydro-Québec a été discutée. / Every day, decisions must be made about the amount of hydroelectricity produced in Quebec. These decisions are based on the prediction of water inflow in watersheds based on hydrological models. These models take into account several factors, including the presence or absence of snow. This information is critical during the spring melt to anticipate future flows, since between 30 and 40 % of the flood volume may come from the melting of the snow cover. It is therefore necessary for forecasters to be able to monitor on a daily basis the snow cover to adjust their expectations about the melting phenomenon. Some methods to map snow on the ground are currently used at the Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec (IREQ), but they have some shortcomings. This master thesis's main goal is to use remote sensing passive microwave data (the vertically polarized brightness temperature gradient ratio (GTV)) with a statistical approach to produce snow maps and to quantify the classification uncertainty. In order to do this, the GTV has been used to calculate a daily probability of snow via a Gaussian mixture model using Bayesian statistics. Subsequently, these probabilities were modeled using linear regression models on logits and snow cover maps were produced. The models results were validated qualitatively and quantitatively, and their integration at Hydro-Québec was discussed.

<p>Commercial and regional brewers are increasingly investing in sustainability equipment that reduces input use, operating costs, and environmental impact. These technologies often require significant upfront costs that can limit market access to microbreweries. One potential solution for these brewers is to market their product as sustainable and charge a premium for their product to offset some of the costs. A stated preference choice experiment of a nationally-representative sample is undertaken to elicit consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for sustainability attributes in beer, thus determining whether a market for sustainably-made beer exists. The facets of sustainability, including water reduction, energy reduction, and landfill diversion, are portrayed through eco-labels affixed the front of the primary packaging (aluminum can or glass bottle). Multiple specifications are employed to handle model shortcomings and incorporate discrete heterogeneity. Across all model specifications, <a>consumers show a positive and statistically significant marginal WTP for landfill diversion practices and carbon reduction practices, ranging from $0.40 to $1.37 per six-pack and $0.67 to $1.21 per six-pack, respectively. </a>These results indicate consumers do in fact place value on beer produced using sustainable practices, and the demographics of consumers with the greatest WTP are similar to that of craft beer consumer.</p>

La notion de pauvreté a fait l’objet de nombreux débats à travers le monde. Les premières analyses ont mis l’accent sur le caractère unidimensionnel basé essentiellement sur une approche monétaire (revenu ou dépense de consommation). C’est à la faveur des travaux de certains auteurs, tels que Townsend et Sen, que le caractère multidimensionnel est mis en lumière, au regard de la difficulté de quantification de certaines variables qui traduisaient l’idée de manque. l ressort des nombreuses études empiriques que le secteur rural reste le secteur le plus touché par le phénomène de pauvreté.Dans le cas de la Côte d’Ivoire, la pauvreté reste également un phénomène rural et la plupart des études réalisées se sont focalisées sur l’approche monétaire. Cette étude aborde l’analyse de la pauvreté en se focalisant sur le milieu rural agricole et appréhende le phénomène de la pauvreté à partir de trois (03) approches : (i) monétaire ; (ii) privation relative et (iii) patrimoine.Les résultats montrent que la pauvreté reste importante dans ce secteur avec un taux plus élevé pour l’indicateur de privation relative. En outre, il existe une inégalité monétaire plus importante que les autres types de pauvreté quel que soit l’année (2002 et 2008).L’identification des facteurs explicatifs de l’appartenance ou non à la classe des pauvres, montre que les variables liées au genre, au type de religion et à la classe d’âge sont les plus communes aux différentes années et aux différentes approches.Sur la base des résultats obtenus, les recommandations suivantes sont formulées : (i) à l’endroit du gouvernement ivoirien, utiliser les approches monétaires et non-monétaires dans les prochaines analyses sur la pauvreté en Côte d’Ivoire ; mettre l’accent sur la construction de nouvelles infrastructures et l’achat de nouveaux équipements ; améliorer la communication relatives aux actions du gouvernement ; renforcer les capacités des producteurs en matière d’utilisation d’intrants améliorés et d’outils pertinents ; (ii) à l’endroit des producteurs agricoles, adopter les technologies et techniques agricoles et des intrants de qualité, accepter d’adhérer à des entreprises coopératives ; (iii) à l’endroit des coopératives, il faut rechercher des débouchés pour ses membres, négocier de meilleures rémunérations des productions agricoles, transformer les agriculteurs en véritables entrepreneurs agricoles. / The notion of poverty has been the subject of much debate around the world. Previous analyses have emphasized the one-dimensional character based essentially on a monetary approach (income or consumption expenditure). Thanks to the work of some authors such as Townsend and Sen, the multidimensional character is highlighted, considering the difficulty of quantifying certain variables that translated the idea of lack. In addition, many empirical studies show that the rural sector remains the most affected by poverty.In the case of Côte d'Ivoire, poverty is also a rural phenomenon and most studies have focused on the monetary approach.This study addresses the analysis of poverty by focusing on rural farming and apprehends the phenomenon of poverty from three (03) approaches: (i) monetary; (ii) relative deprivation and (iii) wealth.The results show that poverty remains important in this sector with a high rate for the indicator of the relative deprivation. In addition, there is greater monetary inequality than other types of poverty whatever the year (2002 and 2008).The identification of the explanatory factors of the membership or not in the class of the poor shows that the variables related to the gender, to the type of religion and the age group are the most common in the various years and various approaches.Based on the obtained results , the following recommendations are formulated: (i) towards the Ivorian government, use monetary and non-monetary approaches in next analyses on poverty in Côte d’Ivoire; emphasize the construction of new infrastructures and the purchase of new equipment; improve communication about government actions; build the capacity of producers to use improved inputs and relevant tools; (ii) to agricultural producers, adopt agricultural technologies and techniques and quality inputs, accept to join cooperative enterprises; (iii) for cooperatives, it is necessary to look for outlets for its members, to negotiate better remunerations for agricultural productions, to transform farmers into real agricultural entrepreneurs.

Este trabalho apresenta três extensões ao modelo de reputação proposto por Shapiro (1983). A primeira torna o modelo original mais adequado para avaliar o problema de informação assimétrica de bens de busca e bens credenciais, a segunda permite identificar o ganho de eficiência gerado pela inclusão de um sistema de informação adicional e, a terceira mostra que a provisão de um volume maior de informação pode gerar efeitos adversos quando o produto em questão possui vários atributos. Em seguida, os desenvolvimentos teóricos são utilizados para avaliar os efeitos da introdução do Exame Nacional de Cursos sobre o mercado de cursos superiores do Brasil. Algumas das predições do modelo são testadas empiricamente, fornecendo indicações de que este Exame possui um papel relevante para mitigar o problema de informação identificado neste mercado. / This essay presents three extensions to the model first proposed by Shapiro (1983) regarding reputation. The first extension adjusts Shapiro’s original model in order to make it more suitable in dealing with the problem of asymmetric information of search goods and credence goods. The second one allows the identification of the efficiency gains obtained after the inclusion of an additional information system, while the third extension demonstrates that additional information could generate adverse effects when the good under consideration has several attributes. These theoretical extensions are then applied to evaluate the effects of the Brazilian experience regarding the introduction of the Courses National Exam - Exame Nacional de Cursos – on Brazil’s market of undergraduate school courses. Some of the theoretical predictions of the model are empirically tested, offering indications that such exam plays a relevant role while diminishing the informational problem that characterizes this market.

本研究的目的在暸解教師流動的型態與調動的因素，從83學年度臺灣省國民中學調動教師中抽取384人，並同時抽取380位未調動教師作為參照。 　　本研究採用虛擬依變項的迴歸分析，探討導致教師調動的因素。結果發現教師調動的型態存在往都會地區流動的現象。調動與非調動教師的比較中，在性別、教學年資、婚姻狀況與配偶的勞動參與率、自用住宅的擁有、調動次數、學校規模、以及是否為居民的變項上有顯著的不同。 　　在調動機率的影響方面，性別、教學年資、婚姻狀況與配偶的勞動參與率、調動次數、學校規模、以及薪資與福利措施的滿意度上，有著顯著的預測力。研究的結論是教育人力資源分配仍不平均，從影響教師調動機率的因素中，可以提供導引教育人力資源分配更加均衡的線索。 / The main purpose of this study is to inquire into the style about the teachers' mobility and the factors affecting such mobility. Sampling from 1994 academic year in Taiwan, the researcher focuses on the 384 cases of all mobilized teachers and their counterpart-380 nonmobilized cases. 　　A dummy dependent regression analysis is conducted to explore the factors. As a result, the phenomenon for mobility tends to flow into the metropolis. Factors affecting the mobility exhibits significant differences compared to nonmobility; such as factors among sex, seniority, marriage, inhibition, frequcncy of mobility and the scale of the school. 　　In additions, the propensity to mobile, as this study finds, has to do with their sex, seniority, marriage and the labor participation of spouse, frequcency of mobility, degree of the content about their wages and welfare, and the scale of the school. The conclusions made here are: the human resources in education is still scanty. From the factors influenced mobility probability, it can provide some clues to make the human resources in education more equal.

The main purpose of this study is to inquire into the style about the teachers' mobility and the factors affecting such mobility. Sampling from 1994 academic year in Taiwan, the researcher focuses on the 384 cases of all mobilized teachers and their counterpart-380 nonmobilized cases. A dummy dependent regression analysis is conducted to explore the factors. As a result, the phenomenon for mobility tends to flow into the metropolis. Factors affecting the mobility exhibits significant differences compared to nonmobility; such as factors among sex, seniority, marriage, inhibition, frequcncy of mobility and the scale of the school. In additions, the propensity to mobile, as this study finds, has to do with their sex, seniority, marriage and the labor participation of spouse, frequcency of mobility, degree of the content about their wages and welfare, and the scale of the school. The conclusions made here are: the human resources in education is still scanty. From the factors influenced mobility probability, it can provide some clues to make the human resources in education more equal.

Le problème de tarification qui nous intéresse ici consiste à maximiser le revenu généré par les usagers d'un réseau de transport. Pour se rendre à leurs destinations, les usagers font un choix de route et utilisent des arcs sur lesquels nous imposons des tarifs. Chaque route est caractérisée (aux yeux de l'usager) par sa "désutilité", une mesure de longueur généralisée tenant compte à la fois des tarifs et des autres coûts associés à son utilisation. Ce problème a surtout été abordé sous une modélisation déterministe de la demande selon laquelle seules des routes de désutilité minimale se voient attribuer une mesure positive de flot. Le modèle déterministe se prête bien à une résolution globale, mais pèche par manque de réalisme. Nous considérons ici une extension probabiliste de ce modèle, selon laquelle les usagers d'un réseau sont alloués aux routes d'après un modèle de choix discret logit. Bien que le problème de tarification qui en résulte est non linéaire et non convexe, il conserve néanmoins une forte composante combinatoire que nous exploitons à des fins algorithmiques. Notre contribution se répartit en trois articles. Dans le premier, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue théorique pour le cas avec une paire origine-destination. Nous développons une analyse de premier ordre qui exploite les propriétés analytiques de l'affectation logit et démontrons la validité de règles de simplification de la topologie du réseau qui permettent de réduire la dimension du problème sans en modifier la solution. Nous établissons ensuite l'unimodalité du problème pour une vaste gamme de topologies et nous généralisons certains de nos résultats au problème de la tarification d'une ligne de produits. Dans le deuxième article, nous abordons le problème d'un point de vue numérique pour le cas avec plusieurs paires origine-destination. Nous développons des algorithmes qui exploitent l'information locale et la parenté des formulations probabilistes et déterministes. Un des résultats de notre analyse est l'obtention de bornes sur l'erreur commise par les modèles combinatoires dans l'approximation du revenu logit. Nos essais numériques montrent qu'une approximation combinatoire rudimentaire permet souvent d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Dans le troisième article, nous considérons l'extension du problème à une demande hétérogène. L'affectation de la demande y est donnée par un modèle de choix discret logit mixte où la sensibilité au prix d'un usager est aléatoire. Sous cette modélisation, l'expression du revenu n'est pas analytique et ne peut être évaluée de façon exacte. Cependant, nous démontrons que l'utilisation d'approximations non linéaires et combinatoires permet d'identifier des solutions quasi-optimales. Finalement, nous en profitons pour illustrer la richesse du modèle, par le biais d'une interprétation économique, et examinons plus particulièrement la contribution au revenu des différents groupes d'usagers. / The network pricing problem consists in finding tolls to set on a subset of a network's arcs, so to maximize a revenue expression. A fixed demand of commuters, going from their origins to their destinations, is assumed. Each commuter chooses a path of minimal "disutility", a measure of discomfort associated with the use of a path and which takes into account fixed costs and tolls. A deterministic modelling of commuter behaviour is mostly found in the literature, according to which positive flow is only assigned to \og shortest\fg\: paths. Even though the determinist pricing model is amenable to global optimization by the use of enumeration techniques, it has often been criticized for its lack of realism. In this thesis, we consider a probabilistic extension of this model involving a logit dicrete choice model. This more realistic model is non-linear and non-concave, but still possesses strong combinatorial features. Our analysis spans three separate articles. In the first we tackle the problem from a theoretical perspective for the case of a single origin-destination pair and develop a first order analysis that exploits the logit assignment analytical properties. We show the validity of simplification rules to the network topology which yield a reduction in the problem dimensionality. This enables us to establish the problem's unimodality for a wide class of topologies. We also establish a parallel with the product-line pricing problem, for which we generalize some of our results. In our second article, we address the problem from a numerical point of view for the case where multiple origin-destination pairs are present. We work out algorithms that exploit both local information and the pricing problem specific combinatorial features. We provide theoretical results which put in perspective the deterministic and probabilistic models, as well as numerical evidence according to which a very simple combinatorial approximation can lead to the best solutions. Also, our experiments clearly indicate that under any reasonable setting, the logit pricing problem is much smoother, and admits less optima then its deterministic counterpart. The third article is concerned with an extension to an heterogeneous demand resulting from a mixed-logit discrete choice model. Commuter price sensitivity is assumed random and the corresponding revenue expression admits no closed form expression. We devise nonlinear and combinatorial approximation schemes for its evaluation and optimization, which allow us to obtain quasi-optimal solutions. Numerical experiments here indicate that the most realistic model yields the best solution, independently of how well the model can actually be solved. We finally illustrate how the output of the model can be used for economic purposes by evaluating the contributions to the revenue of various commuter groups.

La tesi è una raccolta di tre saggi sulla soddisfazione sul posto di lavoro. Il primo capitolo utilizza il dataset panel BHPS per analizzare le differenze di soddisfazione lavorativa dei lavoratori impiegati nel settore nonprofit rispetto agli altri settori. Il secondo considera l'effetto del salario -sia quello del lavoratore che di un gruppo rilevante di riferimento- e degli schemi incentivanti di retribuzione sulla soddisfazione lavorativa. L'analisi si basa sul round 5 dello European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Il terzo capitolo analizza e critica la relazione da tempo condivisa in letteratura che i membri di organizzazioni sindacali riportano minore soddisfazione lavorativa rispetto ai non iscritti, mediante l'analisi dei dati dello European Social Survey (ESS),round 3 e 5. / The thesis provides a detailed examination of job satisfaction through three distinct essays. The first chapter uses UK household panel data (the BHPS) to consider differences in job satisfaction in the non-profit sector, compared with other sectors. The second looks at the effect of earnings – that of the respondent and of relevant other people – and of payment systems on job satisfaction. This is based on data from round 5 of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). The third essay seeks to examine and to challenge the long-established finding that union members tend to have lower job satisfaction than non-members, and this is addressed with two rounds of data from the European Social Survey (ESS).

1999年新巴塞爾協定規定鼓勵銀行採用內部信用評等法(internal ratings based approach)，以衡量貸款者無法償還之風險以計提最低資本。為因應此一授信風險控管之需要，銀行亟需建立一套有效之財務危機預警系統，以判定銀行授信客戶發生財務危機之機率。 本研究運用羅吉斯迴歸分析(logistic regression analysis)與離散時間涉險分析(discrete-time survival analysis)分法於三種相互具有巢狀式關連性之財務危機預測模型，逐步加入財務、非財務及公司治理變數，以便在同一種分析方法下比較三種模型，以及在同一種模型下比較兩種分析方法。實證結果顯示，就樣本期間內而言，同一種分析方法下模型之財務危機預測能力，隨著不同種類解釋變數之加入而逐步提高。然而，就樣本期間外而言，同一種分析方法下模型之財務危機預測能力，並未隨著不同種類解釋變數之加入而逐步提高，但分類能力皆十分優良；而在同一種模型下離散時間涉險分析方法之整體分類能力皆高於羅吉斯迴歸分析方法。 / The 1999 Basel II Accord suggests banks measure the impossibility of reimbursement of debtors to calculate capital minimums by internal ratings-based approach. To reduce the credit risk, it is important that banks construct accurate financial distress prediction systems to determine the probability of financial distress of debtors. This study employs logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analysis to construct nested models to which the financial, non-financial, and corporate governance corporate variables are added step by step. I therefore make comparison of the performance of three models under logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analysis, respectively. Meanwhile, the comparison of the performance of logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analyses under each of three models is also made. The empirical results show that the in-sample predictive ability of financial distress is enhanced by gradually incorporating different kinds of variables in both analyses. Although the out-of-the-sample predictive ability of financial distress is not improved by gradually incorporating different kinds of variables in one analysis, the model performance is quite well overall. The entire discriminability of discrete-time hazard analysis is better than logistic regression under each model.

Στόχος της παρούσης διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι να μελετηθεί η Ταχεία Διάχυση Αρνητικών Χρηματοοικονομικών Συμβάντων (financial contagion) όπως αυτή παρουσιάζεται στην βιβλιογραφία καθώς επίσης οι αιτίες, οι τρόποι διάχυσης και οι τρόποι μέτρησης της. Όσον αφορά στο εφαρμοσμένο κομμάτι της υπάρχουσας βιβλιογραφίας εξετάζεται το μέρος αυτής το οποίο αφορά στην εξέταση της Ταχείας Διάχυσης Αρνητικών Χρηματοοικονομικών Συμβάντων με μοντέλα περιορισμένης εξαρτημένης μεταβλητής. Γίνεται εκτενέστερη ανάλυση στο multinomial logit μοντέλο το οποίο φανερώνει την πιθανότητα εμφάνισης ενός ενδεχομένου σε σχέση με τις επεξηγηματικές μεταβλητές που επιλέγονται. Στα πλαίσια της εργασίας αυτής γίνεται και μια εμπειρική εφαρμογή ενός τέτοιου μοντέλου με δεδομένα που αφορούν την Ελληνική Χρηματιστηριακή Αγορά με σκοπό να δειχθεί αν οι χαμηλές αποδόσεις ορισμένων υποδεικτών του Γενικού Δείκτη Τιμών επηρεάζουν την πιθανότητα εμφάνισης ταυτόχρονων κοινών υπερβάσεων στις αποδόσεις (coexceedances) και άλλων υποδεικτών. / The aim of this thesis is to study the rapid dissemination Negative Financial Events (financial contagion) as presented in the literature as well as the causes, ways and methods of diffusion measurement. As far as the applied part of the existing literature is concerned, it is examined the part which concerns the examination of the Rapid Diffusion of Negative Financial Events (financial contagion) with limited dependent variable models. There is extensive analysis of the multinomial logit model. As part of this work it is presented an empirical application of such a model with data from the Greek stock market in order to indicate whether the low returns of certain subindices of the General Price Index affect the likelihood of simultaneous joint excesses in returns (coexceedances) of other subindices .