L‟objectif de toute analyse économique sur l‟offre de travail, est en général, de mieux cerner les problématiques liées à l‟emploi permettant de décliner des politiques en direction du marché du travail. Cette thèse n‟échappe pas à cet objectif bien qu‟elle soit orientée vers les femmes. A partir des analyses développées dans cette thèse, nous avons apporté un nouvel éclairage sur les facteurs déterminants qui poussent ou empêchent la femme sénégalaise à intégrer le marché du travail. Les approches théoriques développées, nous ont conduit à considérer la nature des relations conjugales, les différentes perceptions du travail et des obligations familiales correspondants à différents types de comportements féminins d‟offre de travail. Le comportement d‟offre de travail de la femme sénégalaise est ainsi influencé par des caractéristiques individuelles telles que l‟âge, le niveau d‟éducation, et des caractéristiques familiales courantes telles que la présence d‟enfant(s) de moins de 5ans dans le ménage, la présence d‟un conjoint (statut matrimonial), le revenu du conjoint, la taille du ménage, le statut monétaire matérialisé par la pauvreté, le versement de transferts à des descendants ou ascendants.Par le biais de la modélisation logistique dichotomique et multinomiale, nous avons montré que le niveau d‟éducation est positivement corrélé à la participation des femmes sur le marché du travail et constitue de surcroît, un ticket d‟entrée dans le secteur public. Contrairement au statut matrimonial (être mariée), la présence d‟enfants de moins de 5 ans et le revenu du conjoint ne semblent pas être un obstacle à l‟intégration des femmes sur le marché du travail, mais cette présence d‟enfant semble orienter les sénégalaises vers le secteur informel au détriment des autres secteurs (public et privé formel). Ce qui est souvent motivé par les conditions de travail plus flexibles dans ce secteur permettant aux femmes de concilier activités économiques et obligations familiales. Par ailleurs, les femmes appartenant aux ménages pauvres semblent être plus disposer à offrir du travail que celles appartenant aux ménages non pauvres, mais elles ont moins de chances d‟être dans le secteur public, le secteur privé formel et dans une moindre mesure dans les ambassades et ONG que dans l‟informel par rapport à celles qui ne sont pas pauvres. / The objective of any economic analysis of the elabor supply is generally to better understand issues related to employment allowing formulating policies towards the labor market. This thesis is not an exception to this objective although it focuses exclusively on women. From the analysis of the present thesis, we have shed new light on the main factors driving or inhibiting the senegalese woman to enter the labor market. The theoretical approaches developed have led us to consider the nature of marital relationships, the different perceptions of work and family obligations corresponding to different types of female behavior of labor supply. Through a dicotomous and multinomial logit model, we have shown that the behavior of labor supply of senegalese women is influenced by individual characteristics such as the age and education level, and standard family characteristics such as the presence of under 5 years old child/children in the household, the presence of a spouce (marital status), the income of the spouse, the householf size, the monetary status indicated by the poverty, the remittances to descendants or ascendants.

L’Europe a subi la crise la plus sévère de sa récente histoire à la suite de la crise financière globale de 2008. C’est pourquoi cette thèse a l’objectif d’identifier de façon empirique les déterminants de cette crise dans le cadre de 15 principaux membres de l’UE. Dans ce sens, nous développons d’abord un index de pression fiscale continu, contrairement aux travaux empiriques précédents, afin d’identifier des périodes de crise dans les pays UE-15 de 2003 à 2015. Ensuite, nous utilisons trois différentes techniques d’estimation, à savoir Cartes auto-organisatrices, Logit et Markov. Nos résultats d’estimation démontrent que notre indicateur de crise identifie le timing et la durée de la crise de dette dans chacun des pays de UE-15. Résultats empiriques indiquent également que l’occurrence de la crise de dette dans l’UE-15 est la conséquence de la détérioration de balances macroéconomiques et financières sachant que les variables comme le ratio des prêts non-performants sur les crédits totaux du secteur bancaire, la croissance du PIB, chômage, balance primaire / PIB, le solde ajusté du cycle PIB. De plus, variables démontrant la qualité de gouvernance tel que participation et responsabilisation, qualité de la réglementation, et de l'efficacité gouvernementale, jouent également un rôle important dans l’occurrence et sur la durée de la crise de dette dans le cadre de l’UE-15. Étant donne que les résultats économétriques indiquent l’importance de la détérioration fiscale dans l’occurrence de la crise de dette européenne, nous testons la convergence fiscale des pays membre de l’UE. Les résultats montrent que Portugal, Irlande, Italie, Grèce et Espagne diverge des autres pays de l’UE-15 en termes de dette publique / PIB alors qu’ils convergent, à part la Grèce, avec les autres pays membres de l’UE-15 en termes de déficit budgétaires / PIB. / Europe went through the most severe economic crisis of its recent history following the global financial crisis of 2008. Hence, this thesis aims to empirically identify the determinants of this crisis within the framework of 15 core EU member countries (EU-15). To do so, the study develops a continuous fiscal stress index, contrary to previous empirical studies that tend to use event-based crisis indicators, which identifies the debt crises in the EU-15 and the study employs three different estimation techniques, namely Self-Organizing Map, Multivariate Logit and Panel Markov Regime Switching models. Our estimation results show first that the study identifies correctly the time and the length of the debt crisis in each EU-15-member country by developing a fiscal stress index. Empirical results also indicate, via three different models, that the debt crisis in the EU-15 is the consequence of deterioration of both financial and macroeconomic variables such as nonperforming loans over total loans, GDP growth, unemployment rates, primary balance over GDP, and cyclically adjusted balance over GDP. Besides, variables measuring governance quality, such as voice and accountability, regulatory quality, and government effectiveness, also play a significant role in the emergence and the duration of the debt crisis in the EU-15. As the econometric results clearly indicate the importance of fiscal deterioration on the occurrence of the European debt crisis, this study also aims to test the fiscal convergence among the EU member countries. The results indicate that Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain diverge from other EU-15 countries in terms of public debt-to-GDP ratio. In addition, results also show that all PIIGS countries except for Greece converge to EU-10 in terms of budget deficit-to-GDP ratio.

This diploma thesis is focused on the evaluation of the efficiency of selected bankruptcy models in the Czech Republic. In the theoretical part the basic terminology and methodology of bankruptcy models creation are introduced. In addition are mentioned, model constraints, an overview of the indicators used, and information about model accuracy. This part also presents analyzed models and methods of assessing the reliability of bankruptcy models. In the practical part, the reliability of selected bankruptcy models is evaluated and a new bankruptcy model is built.

The quest towards resolving concerns about transportation energy consumption and emissions across nations has created more interests to investigate factors responsible for households’ car ownership. While literature holds an extensive body of investigation usually compartmentalised in individual different disciplines, limited efforts have been made to promote inter-linkages of this strand of research across different disciplines. To fill this gap, this study developed an integrating Multinomial logit (MNL) model to examine the impact of some rarely-investigated and conventional explanatory variables, including: ethnicity, accommodation tenure, settlement nature, mental belief, environmental concern, geographical regions, household structure, driving licence, number of household income earners and household income, on car ownership. Analysis based on rich data sets of British Household Survey and US Consumer Expenditure Survey found not only the conventional explanatory variables to be significantly linked to the number of cars in the US and UK households, but also the rarely-investigated psychological variables were found to be significantly linked as well. As Socio-demography, Geography and Psychology impact on how people and households process information and assess market offers (e.g., products and services), this study presents findings which have beneficial implications for policymakers and transportations planners, including those who would like to alter people’s behaviour from private car ownership to public transportation use, car sellers in terms of how to identify and reach potential customers, provision of alternative forecasting approaches to car ownership scholars as well as possible consideration for general car ownership decision making. Caution should be taken when interpreting the relationship between psychological factors and car ownership since the psychological factors adopted are measure representatives from databases used with limitations in the factor structure for a representative sample of the countries’ population.

The equine influenza virus is a significant cause of respiratory disease in horses. Even though horses generally recover from this virus, sometimes horses with equine influenza develop secondary bacterial infections which can cause severe pneumonia, thereby increasing recovery times. Owners and managers are faced with the decision of whether to delay preventative treatment in hopes of the horse avoids contracting a secondary bacterial infection (“wait and see”) or aggressively treat the horse with an antibiotic in hopes of avoiding a serious infection (“treat now”). From a decision making standpoint, the economic considerations include explicit treatment costs as well as nonmonetary costs the owner or manager bear when caring for an ill horse. This study investigating horse owner/manager preferences for treatment alternatives is approached in two parts. The first part of the study collects data from field practitioners to estimate the cost of treatment strategies under different scenarios. The second part consists of a questionnaire presented to horse owners and managers and includes four choices between alternative treatment strategies. Analyzing the data using a conjoint analysis approach, respondents’ willingness to pay for different elements of a treatment strategy are estimated. Based on treatment strategies and demographic interactions, a respondent was willing to pay to cover the cost of a horse who became ill with the equine influenza, but individual price sensitivities suggested horse owners and managers are willing to “treat now” versus “wait and see” in order to not see their horse feel poorly and miss training time.

Bus is the main mode of urban transport in most cities in developing countries. Despite a high mode share, bus service quality is often poor and para-transit services are regarded as a problem in urban transport systems rather than a solution. Using Dhaka as a case study, this thesis investigates bus service quality through identification and valuation of thirteen important attributes using discrete choice models. The attributes examined are travel time, travel cost, waiting time, headway, priority seats for women, crowding inside the bus, boarding and alighting, picking up and dropping off passengers, bus stop facilities, driving quality, driver and crew behaviour, cleanliness inside the bus, and air conditioning. Five focus groups were conducted to identify key qualitative bus attributes and their levels in order to design choice experiments for valuation. A survey of 431 respondents in Dhaka was then undertaken. Two choice experiments were designed and implemented within the survey, each with seven attributes (set A and set B) with travel cost as the common attribute. Multinomial Logit (MNL) models and Mixed Logit (MXL) models were developed using the Dhaka choice data. Twelve of the thirteen attributes were statistically significant at the 99% level. The values of in-vehicle time (IVT), waiting time and headway were BDT 34.80, 47.40 and 64.20 per hour respectively for low income groups in the segmented model. Waiting time has a premium valuation, 1.36 times higher than IVT, which endorses existing evidence. The highest valuation is for the dummy variable seating all the way which is BDT 42.20 for high income females. The next largest was bus stops properly, picks and drops passengers nicely , followed by wide door and mild steps for boarding and alighting , smooth and safe journey , bus stop with shed, but no seating arrangements , and air conditioning . The lowest value was BDT 4.61 for deck and seats are clean and tidy , for the low income group. The WTP for the qualitative attributes is high, but given the poor level of the existing service and low fare levels this seems reasonable. Income has a significant impact on travel cost, as well as gender on priority seats for women and crowding inside the bus. However, household car ownership does not have a significant impact on any of the bus attributes examined. The high income group has 75% higher WTP for A set attributes and 79% higher WTP for B set attributes than low income group. Females have 76% higher WTP for standing comfortably all the way , but 38% higher WTP for seating all the way compared to the male. However, females have a WTP of BDT 0.44 for per percent of priority seats for women in contrast with males who have a WTP of BDT -0.11. There is significant taste heterogeneity for both quantitative and qualitative attributes. The qualitative attributes for picking up and dropping off passengers, boarding and alighting facilities and driving facilities have higher valuation and this attributes came from the existing within the market competition structure in a highly fragmented bus market. Therefore, it is recommended to introduce competition for the market and incentives for bus industry consolidation.

Nanotechnology is one of the key innovative technologies in the present century. The food industry has applied this technology in each of its sectors. Nanotechnology has tremendous potential in food and agriculture, including advancing agricultural cultivation and food production, enhancing food nutrition and flavor, and improving food packaging and preservation. However, the novel properties of nanoscale materials that allow beneficial applications are also accompanied with uncertainties, even unknown risks. A number of studies have examined public understanding as well as acceptance of nanotechnology via surveys in both the US and Europe. However, most of these studies concentrated on public attitudes in general. Few works focused on specific products, let alone food or food related products. This project will contribute to the literature by calculating monetary valuations (i.e., willingness-to-pay) for canola oil where new techniques are utilized. Using choice experiment survey data, consumers’ valuations for nano attributes were estimated with choice models. As implied, consumers were willing to pay $0.95 less for a typical bottle (48 fl. oz.) of canola oil if it was produced from nanoscale-modified seed; $0.51 less if the final products were packed with nanotechnology-enhanced packaging technique; and no significant difference was found for oil that was designed with health enhancing nano-engineered oil drops, which would require interaction with the human digestive system. Additionally, the results revealed unobserved heterogeneities among respondents in their willingness-to-pay for canola oil attributes. Aligned with descriptive results, 46.7% of the respondents reported that they were optimistic about new technology applied to food products. While a significant portion of the respondents (42.8%) indicated that they might gain benefits at the same level as risks, there were a slightly larger proportion of the respondents who feared they might be exposed to more risks than benefits through nanofoods. Further analysis included respondents’ attitudes and opinions as well as their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics toward the goal of understanding the underlying behavior difference. Findings from this study will help bridge the gap between scientific innovation and public policy and social-economic concerns. Implications for government policy that can be efficiently used to monitor and regulate these technologies were also investigated.

本研究預測匯率危機的方法主要是用二元分量迴歸(Binary Regression Quantiles)，此理論基礎與預測方式是使用美國學者Kords (2004)的方法，將分量迴歸運用在應變數為二元的屬質變數上之計量方法。在匯率危機計量模型中，最常使用的模型是Logit模型和Probit模型所做的分析，因此本÷究除了使用二元分量模型外，將在套入Logit模型和Probit模型，並將這三種模型加以比較，且探討匯率危機發生的原因並建立預警變數。而研究資料為十七個發展中的國家，研究時間為1981~2004年。 本研究發現由Logit模型和Probit模型中，兩模型的所預測匯率危機指標大都一致，包括有進口比例、GDP成長率、銀行外債/GDP。而且發現由二元分量回歸模型中，匯率危機預警指標有出口/GDP、貿易條件、海外直接投資/GDP、國際熱錢流入/GDP、銀行存款、GDP成長率、貪污指數，短期外債/全部外債。

在信用風險的分析上，應變數就是發生與不發生，通常以1、0 來表示。若透過一般的最小平方法來處理，所求得的估計量雖滿足不偏性(Unbiased)，但存在幾個缺點，應變數並不滿足迴歸分析中常態分配的假設、殘差項存在變異數異質的問題。在模型的解釋能力方面，更存在著以下困擾 1.忽略了不同規模與分配下應變數的邊際變化。 2.極端值的情形下，參數的係數將會受到很大的影響。 本研究引進了分量迴歸(Quantiles Regression)的工具，最早由Koenker and Bassett(1978)所提出，能解決在使用最小平方法來處理時所出現的問題，以架構公司信用風險模型的評估，提出客觀的評估標準，並檢驗其用以風險控管的能力。 實證結果整理，各分量Binary Regression Quantiles的預測解釋能力和傳統的Logit模型仍存在一定的差距。

本研究以羅吉斯迴歸模型探討影響上市櫃公司選擇公開募集或私募之因素。 實證結果發現採私募或現金增資的決策，和下列因素有關：(1)資訊不對稱程度愈高之公司愈傾向以私募發行新股，且上櫃公司較上市公司更傾向以私募發行新股；(2) 資訊透明度越低的公司，資金成本越高，籌資也較困難，會傾向以私募方式發行新股；(3) 投資機會愈多的公司，因為控制權考量，會選擇公開募集資金；(4) 當景氣愈好，公司愈傾向以公開募集發行新股，且上市公司較上櫃公司更易傾向以現金增資方式發行新股。 / This study applies logit model to examine the determinants of choice of private placements/seasoned equity offerings. The results indicate that firms being severe in information asymmetry tend to choose private placements. Contrast to listed firms, OTC firms prefer private placements to seasoned equity offerings. Firms with lower information transparency pay higher costs in seasoned equity offerings and therefore tend to choose private placements. Firms being abundant in investment opportunities prefer to choose seasoned equity offerings because of control considerations. In bull markets, more firms choose seasoned equity offerings other than private placements while listed firms have stronger tendency to choose seasoned equity offerings than OTC firms.