L'étude des formes de la nature, de leur diversité, de leur reproductibilité ainsi que de leurs origines a toujours suscité un vif intérêt et, en particulier, la forme polygonale des cellules au sein des épithéliums monocouches, depuis leur observation par Hooke en 1665. Le travail de thèse exposé à travers ce mémoire vise une meilleure compréhension de la morphogenèse de ces tissus. Pour y parvenir, trois approches ont été combinées : la biologie expérimentale du développement, l'analyse biostatistique et, principalement ici, la modélisation biomécanique et numérique. L'hypothèse d'une influence des efforts mécaniques dans l'organisation des épithéliums monocouches en formation a conduit au développement d'un modèle bidimensionnel de cellules, basé sur la physique des milieux divisés et permettant une plasticité de forme ainsi qu'une capacité de libre auto-organisation. Les simulations de morphogenèse de tissus constitués de ces cellules ont alors, d'une part, été confrontées aux observations et, d'autre part, permis de faire varier des paramètres difficilement accessibles expérimentalement, principalement ceux régissant l'évolution cellulaire ainsi que les conditions aux limites. Les résultats issus de ces simulations ont ainsi permis de corroborer ceux provenant des expérimentations : les tissus non prolifératifs sont plus organisés que les prolifératifs et l'apoptose semble jouer un rôle stabilisateur de la morphogenèse des épithéliums prolifératifs. En outre, les études numériques montrent que l'organisation des tissus non prolifératifs semble décroître quand leur vitesse de développement augmente. Par ailleurs, les tissus paraissent plus organisés avec une division et une apoptose contrôlées par des critères mécaniques plutôt que lorsque le système prolifère suivant des critères aléatoires. En conclusion, ce travail de thèse montre l'importance des interactions mécaniques dans le processus de morphogenèse épithéliale et représente une première base prometteuse pour des études futures en ce domaine (étude tridimensionnelle, structuration du cytosquelette, tissus hyperprolifératifs, etc.). / The study of natural forms, their diversity, their reproducibility and their origin has always fascinated the scientists, and particularly the polygonal form of cells in monolayer epithelia, since their observation by Hooke in 1665. The present PhD work aims to better understand tissue morphogenesis. To do so, three approaches have been combined: experimental biology, biostatistical analysis and, mainly here, biomechanical and numerical modeling. The hypothesis of the influence of mechanical efforts on the organization of forming monolayer epithelia leads to the development of a 2D cell model based on the physics of divided media, that enables form plasticity and the ability of free auto-organization. The simulations of tissue morphogenesis composed by these cells have been compared to biological observations. Besides, this approach enables the variation of parameters hardly accessible by experiments, mainly those governing the cell evolution as well as boundary conditions. Thus, the results issued from these simulations corroborate experimental data: non-proliferative tissues appear more organized than proliferative ones and apoptosis seems to be a positive regulator in morphogenetic stability. Furthermore, numerical studies show that the organization of non-proliferative tissues seems to decrease as their development speeds increase. In addition, the tissues appear more organized if the proliferation is mechanically controlled than if it is randomly governed. To conclude, this PhD work shows the importance of mechanical interactions in epithelial morphogenesis and constitutes a first promising basis for further studies in this field (3D study, cytoskeleton structuration, hyperproliferative tissue, etc.).

[pt] O estudo da ruptura de taludes em solos não saturados tem se tornado possível com o desenvolvimento de modelos que simplificam a elaboração da curva característica e estimam valores da resistência ao cisalhamento não saturada. Este trabalho utiliza dados de ensaios de campo e de laboratório para a realização de três simulações numéricas para o talude de corte localizado no Morro do Águia, em Salvador. O talude é de um perfil residual de solo siltoso oriundo de rocha metamórfica de gnaisse e migmatitos. A ruptura ocorreu aproximadamente dois anos após a execução de trabalhos de terraplenagem no período de construção da avenida Luís Eduardo Magalhães. A metodologia consistiu em levantar os dados disponíveis de ensaios realizados logo após a ruptura do talude, realizar ensaios complementares com o objetivo de obter dados de entrada para as simulações em três diferentes cenários. Foram realizados os seguintes ensaios: caracterização e análise mineralógica; curva de retenção; resistência ao cisalhamento por cisalhamento direto com as amostras inundadas, na umidade natural e com as amostras secas ar. Os cenários escolhidos para as simulações foram: análise de estabilidade considerando solo totalmente saturado em perfil de camada simples; análise de estabilidade acoplada com análise de fluxo com solo parcialmente saturado em camada simples e análise de estabilidade acoplada com análise de fluxo em solo parcialmente saturado em perfil de camada dupla. O estudo também estimou o ângulo (fi ao quadrado)b pela metodologia proposta por Vilar (2006). O resultado das simulações mostrou que o mecanismo de ruptura foi reproduzido quando se considerou o parâmetro não saturado (fi ao quadrado)b. O modelo simplificado, considerando o solo todo saturado, não reproduziu o mecanismo de ruptura. O (fi ao quadrado)b estimado pela metodologia de Vilar (2006) foi de 16 graus. O resultado das análises utilizando (fi ao quadrado)b = 16 graus não diferiu das análises utilizando (fi ao quadrado)b = 18 graus. O resultado das simulações mostrou que a ruptura ocorreu devido a infiltrações à montante do talude, em período de chuva de distribuição histórica atípica e período prolongado, que atingindo a profundidade do NA elevou a sua cota a zonas de instabilidade, causando a ruptura. / [en] The study of slope stability in unsaturated soils become possible with the development of models that simplify the construction of the characteristic curve and estimate values of unsaturated shear strength. This work presents the results of two stability analysis of a cut slope in Morro do Águia in Salvador, which had collapsed after construction of Luís Eduardo Magalhães Avenue. The slope is made of silty clay residual soil from metamorphic rocks originated by gneisses and migmatites. The methodology of analysis consists in collecting five undisturbed soil samples scattered in the area of study. Characterization and mineralogical analysis were performed; retention curve was constructed; and strength resistance by direct shear was determinate with samples in three conditions: flooded, in natural moisture and dried in air. The methodology of simplified estimation unsaturated shear strength (Vilar, 2006) was used to determinate (phi square)b. Computer simulations obtained from tests results were presented to three situations: first condition the safety factor was obtained considering stability analyses with saturated soil; second condition the soil was unsaturated and the groundwater flow consider rainwater during 86 days before rupture slope and afterwards was made the stability analysis; third condition the groundwater flow was modeled considering rainwater during 20 days afterwards was made the stability analysis. As a result of these analysis, the rupture mechanism that occurred at the time of the collapse is only reproduced by simulation when the parameter unsaturated (phi square)b is introduced, which occur at the second simulation. The value of (phi square)b obtained by Vilar methodology was 16 degrees.

abstract: Seismic observations have revealed two large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) in the lowermost mantle beneath Pacific and Africa. One hypothesis for the origin of LLSVPs is that they are caused by accumulation of subducted oceanic crust on the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Here, I perform high resolution geodynamical calculations to test this hypothesis. The result shows that it is difficult for a thin (~ 6 km) subducted oceanic crust to accumulate on the CMB, and the major part of it is viscously stirred into the surrounding mantle. Another hypothesis for the origin of LLSVPs is that they are caused by thermochemical piles of more-primitive material which is remnant of Earth's early differentiation. In such case, a significant part of the subducted oceanic crust would enter the more-primitive reservoir, while other parts are either directly entrained into mantle plumes forming on top of the more-primitive reservoir or stirred into the background mantle. As a result, mantle plumes entrain a variable combination of compositional components including more-primitive material, old oceanic crust which first enters the more-primitive reservoir and is later entrained into mantle plumes with the more-primitive material, young oceanic crust which is directly entrained into mantle plumes without contacting the more-primitive reservoir, and depleted background mantle material. The result reconciles geochemical observation of multiple compositional components and varying ages of oceanic crust in the source of ocean-island basalts. Seismic studies have detected ultra-low velocity zones (ULVZs) in some localized regions on the CMB. Here, I present 3D thermochemical calculations to show that the distribution of ULVZs provides important information about their origin. ULVZs with a distinct composition tend to be located at the edges of LLSVPs, while ULVZs solely caused by partial melting tend to be located inboard from the edges of LLSVPs. This indicates that ULVZs at the edges of LLSVPs are best explained by distinct compositional heterogeneity, while ULVZs located insider of LLSVPs are better explained by partial melting. The results provide additional constraints for the origin of ULVZs. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geological Sciences 2015

Sub-volcanic intrusions can form an extensive network of sills, dikes and other intrusion types that make up a plumbing system beneath volcanoes. Such intrusions are the heat source for high-temperature geothermal systems in volcanic areas and therefore, it is of great importance to study them in relation to geothermal exploration and production. In this thesis a part of the plumbing system of Breiðuvík caldera, an eroded central volcano in northeastern Iceland, is studied. A set of magmatic intrusions showing a great range in size and shapes, is exposed in Leirfjall, a mountain composed of the eroded caldera infill of the Breiðuvík volcanic system. Data from these intrusions and their host rock is used as the foundation for numerical modeling using finite element method (FEM) constructed in this thesis. The numerical modeling assumes heat transfer in porous media including conduction and convection where fluid flow is governed by the Darcy‘s law. The aims of it is to compare the cooling times of different intrusions and the temperature distribution caused by intrusions of different sizes and shapes. To obtain input parameters for the numerical modeling, a thermometry study based on the mineral chemistry of the magmatic intrusions in Leirfjall is conducted and the thermal and physical properties of the sedimentary host rock are estimated, while literature values are used for basaltic lava and hyaloclastite host rocks for comparison. The results of the numerical modeling suggest that higher maximum values of increased temperature are reached above one thick intrusions compared to multiple thinner intrusions. When comparing dikes and sills, the dikes raise the maximum temperature of the host rock more than the sills, while the sills raise the average temperature above the intrusions more than dikes. Results of the estimated heat transfer from an arrangement of intrusions similar to what is observed in Leirfjall suggests that a significant increase in maximum increased temperature caused by the intrusions would be short-lived, while the average increase would still be constant over a longer time. Despite of the simplified structure of the numerical models it is the hope that they will provide inspiring data for further research and contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between the shallow magmatic intrusions and geothermal systems. / Vulkaner är en viktig energikälla i många länder runt om i världen. Geotermisk vätska och ånga av högtemperatur som finns i vulkanområden kan utnyttjas för bland annat elproduktion och fjärrvärme. Värmekällan till de geotermiska områdena är magma som ligger ytligt i jordskorpan. All magma når inte ytan i utbrott, utan stannar under vulkanen i form av magmaintrusioner. Intrusionerna av olika former och storlekar utgör ett nätverk som tillsammans utgör vulkanens magma transportsystem. I denna studie studeras en uppsättning av magmaintrusioner på nordöstra Island. Intrusionerna har en gång befunnit sig längre ner i jordskorpan under ett aktivt vulkanområde men exponeras nu vid ytan på grund av glacial erosion. Intrusionernas storlek och form varierar, men de flesta återfinns som gångar, både vertikala och horisontella. När en magmatintrusion bildas värms omkringliggande berggrund och grundvatten upp. Studiens fokus är att undersöka hur temperaturfördelningen i omgivningen skiljer sig vid en stor intrusion jämfört med flera mindre intrusioner med totalt samma volym. Även effekten från olika typer av berggrund runt intrusionerna studerades genom att jämföra temperaturfördelningen och kylningstiderna för intrusioner i tre vanliga bergarter. Numerisk modellering användades för att besvara dessa frågor. Bergarternas fysiska och termiska egenskaper krävdes som ingångsparametrar för den numeriska modelleringen. Parametrana uppskattades genom laboratorieexperiment och termometriberäkningar från fältprover. Värden från publicerat material användes också i modelleringen. Resultaten från den numeriska modelleringen antyder att högre maximivärden för temperaturen nås i berget över en stor, enskild intrusion jämfört med flera mindre intrusioner. När man jämför vertikala og horisontella gångar, ökar de vertikala gångarna berggrundens temperatur mer än de horisontella, medan medeltemperaturen ökar mer över horisontella gångar än i vertikala gångar. Trots den numeriska modellens förenklade struktur är förhoppningen att den nya datan kan inspirera vidare forskning, och bidra till en bättre förståelse om förhållandet mellan grunda magmaintrusioner och geotermiska system.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-01T12:17:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2728849 bytes, checksum: 473329771da433558aad326b78ebbb89 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-09-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / A model was used to simulate solute distribution during rapid solidification of a system Ag-15%massCu with initial undercooling of 5 K, 10 K and 30 K. Boettinger et al (1987) measured the microsegregation profile in Ag-Cu alloys superficially treated with a focused electron beam (resolidification). In that work, they found an irregular variation for Cu concentration in cross sections of the resolidified microstructures. In some cases, the profile of concentration versus radius presented a W shape. Current models of microsegregation predict a monotonic variation the concentration depending on the cell radius, which are apparently not in accordance with the acquired measurements. The present study used a numeric model to evaluate the solidification of Ag-Cu alloy under same conditions to the Boettinger´s experiment. Numerical results are for a metallic spherical drop, initially liquid, cooled by convection. Solidification starts in the center of the droplet in a given undercooling. The algorithm used here is based on a model in volumetric average of the quantities and the balance equations in a representative elementary volume for treating a solid/liquid mixture. Inside the droplet transport of energy and mass are repurely diffusive processes of average quantities. The algorithm used permitted a global analysis of the phenomena occurring during the solidification process, as well as a local analysis of the quantities involved, which has been shown to be a prerequisite for the prediction of non-monotonic profiles of microsegregation, such as those measured in the experiment mentioned above. / Foi utilizado um modelo para simular a distribuição de soluto durante a solidificação rápida de um sistema Ag-15%Cu com superresfriamentos iniciais de 5 K, 10 K e 30 K. Boettinger et al (1987) mediram o perfil de microssegregação em ligas Ag-Cu tratadas superficialmente com um feixe de laser (resolidificação). Nesse trabalho, os autores constataram uma variação irregular para a concentração de cobre em seções transversais de células nas microestruturas resolidificadas. Em alguns casos um perfil de concentração ao longo do raio em forma de W foi medido. Os modelos de microssegregação atuais, em geral, preveem uma variação monotônica da concentração em função do raio da célula, o que aparentemente não está de acordo com as medições obtidas. No presente trabalho, foi usado um modelo numérico para avaliar a solidificação de uma liga Ag-Cu em condições análogas às do experimento de Boettinger. Os resultados numéricos são para uma gota metálica esférica, inicialmente líquida, resfriada por convecção. A solidificação tem início no centro da gota em um superresfriamento dado. O algoritmo usado foi desenvolvido previamente para um modelo baseado na tomada de médias volumétricas das grandezas e das equações de balanço descritivas em um volume elementar representativo para tratar com uma mistura sólido/líquido. No interior da gota, os transportes de energia e massa são processos puramente difusivos de grandezas médias. O algoritmo usado permite não apenas uma análise global dos fenômenos que ocorrem durante o processo de solidificação, mas também uma análise local das grandezas envolvidas, o que demonstrou ser condição necessária para a previsão dos perfis não monotônicos de microssegregação, tais como os medidos no experimento mencionado acima.

Submitted by RAPHAEL SAVERIO SPOZITO null (rspozito@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-11-16T17:16:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_RSS_Repositorio_R01.pdf: 8416445 bytes, checksum: 2215a4574c53c042840a83c52ddf3b45 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by LUIZA DE MENEZES ROMANETTO (luizamenezes@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2017-11-17T12:34:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 spozito_rs_me_ilha.pdf: 8416445 bytes, checksum: 2215a4574c53c042840a83c52ddf3b45 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-17T12:34:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 spozito_rs_me_ilha.pdf: 8416445 bytes, checksum: 2215a4574c53c042840a83c52ddf3b45 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-11-09 / Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal a análise entre os modelos simplificados de paredes individuais (PI), grupos isolados de paredes (GIP), grupos de paredes com interação (GPCI) e simulações numéricas (elementos finitos) para determinação da distribuição dos esforços verticais na alvenaria estrutural. Para tal, inicialmente foi efetuado uma revisão bibliográfica para estudo do comportamento da distribuição dos esforços verticais nas paredes e suas interfaces de ligação além de conceitos de discretização da alvenaria estrutural em elementos finitos e os modelos simplificados de dimensionamento. A discretização do modelo em elementos finitos foi realizada utilizando o conceito de macromodelagem e as características dos materiais foram adotadas de acordo com as normas vigentes. Em relação aos grupos de paredes isolados, foi possível identificar um comportamento de uniformização das forças verticais de acordo com o número de pavimentos. Buscou-se também, uma caracterização da uniformização das forças verticais relacionadas com as medidas geométricas dos grupos de parede com interação. Dentre os valores obtidos pelo modelo simplificado de grupos de paredes com interação e a simulações numéricas, considerando o modelo arquitetônico adotado, verificou-se que as taxas de interação tendem a valores de 20%, além da identificação de alguns fenômenos que devem ser melhores investigados. / This work has the main objective of analyzing the simplified models of individual walls (IW), of isolated wall groups (IWG) and of interacting wall groups (IAWG) and also numerical simulations (finite element) to determine the distribution of the vertical forces in structural masonry. To do this, first, reviewed literature provided a study of the behavior of vertical forces distributed on the walls and their connection interfaces and also concepts for discretization of structural masonry for finite element analysis and simplified models. The concept of macro-modeling was used for model discretization into finite elements and characteristics of the materials were adopted in accordance with current regulations. In relation to the isolated wall groups, it was possible to identify behavior of uniformization of the vertical forces according to the number of floors. Characterization of the uniformization of vertical forces related to the geometric measurements of the interacting wall groups was also looked for. Among the values obtained by the simplified model of interacting wall groups and the numerical simulations for the architectural model adopted, the interaction rates tend to values of 20%. Some other phenomena were also identified that need to be investigated further.

abstract: Unsaturated soil mechanics is becoming a part of geotechnical engineering practice, particularly in applications to moisture sensitive soils such as expansive and collapsible soils and in geoenvironmental applications. The soil water characteristic curve, which describes the amount of water in a soil versus soil suction, is perhaps the most important soil property function for application of unsaturated soil mechanics. The soil water characteristic curve has been used extensively for estimating unsaturated soil properties, and a number of fitting equations for development of soil water characteristic curves from laboratory data have been proposed by researchers. Although not always mentioned, the underlying assumption of soil water characteristic curve fitting equations is that the soil is sufficiently stiff so that there is no change in total volume of the soil while measuring the soil water characteristic curve in the laboratory, and researchers rarely take volume change of soils into account when generating or using the soil water characteristic curve. Further, there has been little attention to the applied net normal stress during laboratory soil water characteristic curve measurement, and often zero to only token net normal stress is applied. The applied net normal stress also affects the volume change of the specimen during soil suction change. When a soil changes volume in response to suction change, failure to consider the volume change of the soil leads to errors in the estimated air-entry value and the slope of the soil water characteristic curve between the air-entry value and the residual moisture state. Inaccuracies in the soil water characteristic curve may lead to inaccuracies in estimated soil property functions such as unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. A number of researchers have recently recognized the importance of considering soil volume change in soil water characteristic curves. The study of correct methods of soil water characteristic curve measurement and determination considering soil volume change, and impacts on the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity function was of the primary focus of this study. Emphasis was placed upon study of the effect of volume change consideration on soil water characteristic curves, for expansive clays and other high volume change soils. The research involved extensive literature review and laboratory soil water characteristic curve testing on expansive soils. The effect of the initial state of the specimen (i.e. slurry versus compacted) on soil water characteristic curves, with regard to volume change effects, and effect of net normal stress on volume change for determination of these curves, was studied for expansive clays. Hysteresis effects were included in laboratory measurements of soil water characteristic curves as both wetting and drying paths were used. Impacts of soil water characteristic curve volume change considerations on fluid flow computations and associated suction-change induced soil deformations were studied through numerical simulations. The study includes both coupled and uncoupled flow and stress-deformation analyses, demonstrating that the impact of volume change consideration on the soil water characteristic curve and the estimated unsaturated hydraulic conductivity function can be quite substantial for high volume change soils. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2013

Com o avanço tecnológico dos computadores e o desenvolvimento de soluções para problemas não lineares através do método dos elementos finitos, hoje é possível fazer uma análise mais complexa e mais próxima da realidade. É de extrema importância à verificação dos resultados obtidos pelos programas com a realidade e saber em quais casos esses modelos podem ser aplicados. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é discutir as vantagens e desvantagens da modelagem de estruturas de concreto armado em duas e três dimensões, através dos modelos de fissuras distribuídas. Foram escolhidos três experimentos para a modelagem numérica: o primeiro trata-se de um experimento com uma viga de concreto armado (LEONHARDT; WALTHER, 1962), o segundo experimento também é realizado com uma viga de concreto armado (BRESLER; SCORDELIS, 1963) e o terceiro experimento utiliza vigas de concreto armado em escala reduzida, fabricadas com microconcreto e arame, simulando uma barra de aço lisa (ALMEIDA et al, 2006). Para a modelagem numérica, utilizando-se o modelo de fissuras distribuídas com fissura rotacional e a análise das estruturas de concreto foi escolhido o programa comercial ATENA - \"Advanced Tool Engineering Non-linear Analysis\". / The technological advancement of computers and the development of solutions for nonlinear problems by finite element method are now possible to make more complex the analysis and closer to reality. It is extremely important to verify the results obtained by programs with reality and know which cases these models can be applied. So the objective is to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of modeling reinforced concrete structures in two and three dimensions, through the smeared cracking models. Three experiments were chosen to make the numerical modeling: the first is an experiment with a reinforced concrete beam (LEONHARDT; WALTHER, 1962), the second experiment is also a reinforced concrete beam (BRESLER; SCORDELIS, 1963) and the third experiment is reinforced concrete beams with small-scale and made of wire microconcrete simulating flat steel bar (ALMEIDA et al, 2006). For numerical modeling, using the smeared crack model with rotational crack, and analysis of concrete structures was chosen the commercial program ATENA - Advanced Tool Engineering Non-linear Analysis.

A formulação e o uso de modelos matemáticos complexos têm recebido grande atenção no estudo da ecologia nos últimos anos. Questões relacionadas à exploração de espaços de parâmetros destes modelos - executada de forma eficiente, sistemática e à prova de erros - são de grande importância para melhor compreender, avaliar a confiabilidade e interpretar o resultado destes modelos. Neste trabalho, apresentamos uma investigação de métodos existentes para responder as questões relevantes da área, com ênfase na técnica conhecida como Hipercubo Latino e com foco na análise quantitativa dos resultados, e realizamos a comparação entre resultados analíticos de incerteza e sensibilidade e resultados obtidos do Hipercubo. Ainda, examinamos a proposta de uma metodologia paralela baseada no paradigma estatístico da verossimilhança. O capítulo 1 introduz uma investigação a respeito dos conceitos históricos sobre a natureza da probabilidade, situando o conceito da verossimilhança como componente central da inferência estatística. O capítulo 2 (em inglês) traz uma revisão bibliográfica sobre o estado da arte em análises de incerteza e sensibilidade, apresentando dois exemplos de aplicação das técnicas descritas a problemas de crescimento populacional estruturado. O capítulo 3 examina a proposta de uma metodologia baseada na verossimilhança dos dados como uma abordagem integrativa entre a estimação de parâmetros e a análise de incerteza, apresentando resultados preliminares. Durante o progresso do presente trabalho, um pacote de funções na linguagem R foi desenvolvido para facilitar o emprego na prática das ferramentas teóricas expostas acima. Os apêndices deste texto trazem um tutorial e exemplos de uso deste pacote, pensado para ser ao mesmo tempo conveniente e de fácil extensão, e disponível livremente na internet, no endereço http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/pse. / There is a growing trend in the use of mathematical modeling tools in the study of many areas of the biological sciences. The use of computer models in science is increasing, specially in fields where laboratory experiments are too complex or too costly, like ecology. Questions of efficient, systematic and error-proof exploration of parameter spaces are are of great importance to better understand, estimate confidences and make use of the output from these models. We present a survey of the proposed methods to answer these questions, with emphasis on the Latin Hypercube Sampling and focusing on quantitative analysis of the results. We also compare analytical results for sensitivity and uncertainty, where relevant, to LHS results. Finally, we examine the proposal of a methodology based on the likelihood statistical paradigm. Chapter 1 introduces a brief investigation about the historical views about the nature of probability, in order to situate the concept of likelihood as a central component in statistical inference. Chapter 2 (in English) shows a revision about the state-of-art uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, with a practical example of applying the described techniques to two models of structured population growth. Chapter 3 examines the proposal of a likelihood based approach as an integrative procedure between parameter value estimation and uncertainty analyses, with preliminary results. During the progress of this work, a package of R functions was developed to facilitate the real world use of the above theoretical tools. The appendices of this text bring a tutorial and examples of using this package, freely available on the Internet at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/pse.

O município de São José do Rio Preto (SJRP), localizado na porção noroeste do estado de São Paulo, é extremamente dependente da água subterrânea, tanto para abastecimento público quanto privado, justificando-se o grande número de poços existentes, que excede a mais de dois mil, sobretudo no Sistema Aquífero Bauru (SAB). Embora este recurso seja fundamental para o abastecimento da cidade, 79% dos poços não possuem outorga. O aumento do número de poços, sem o devido controle, explotando o aquífero, pode justificar e intensificar os problemas de forte abatimento da superfície potenciométrica na região central da área urbana do município. Nesse sentido, esta pesquisa objetivou desenvolver um aplicativo computacional, na forma de modelagem numérica de simulação de fluxos subterrâneos, para subsidiar a explotação sustentável do SAB. Para o sucesso do modelo numérico, foi realizada toda a caracterização hidrogeológica e definido o modelo conceitual de fluxo das águas subterrâneas. O modelo numérico foi calibrado em regime estacionário para duas situações: pré-explotação e bombeamento atual; e, posteriormente, foram gerados três diferentes cenários futuros de bombeamento: a) explotação duas vezes maior do que a atual (Q = 133.206 m³/dia); b) explotação três vezes maior do que a atual (Q = 199.809 m³/dia); c) explotação apenas dos poços públicos (Q = 39.662 m³/dia). Houve médias de rebaixamento na área urbana de 15 m, 42 m e 8 m, respectivamente. Rebaixamentos mais proeminentes do nível freático ocorrem na área central do município, onde se concentra 80% dos poços. Dessa forma, recomendam-se algumas ações direcionadas ao poço, à proteção do aquífero e ao usuário. / The city of São José do Rio Preto (SJRP), located in the northwestern portion of the state of São Paulo, is highly dependent of groundwater for both public and private supply, that justifies the large number of existing wells, which exceeds more than 2000, especially in the Bauru Aquifer System (BAS). Although this resource is essential for the city supply, 79% of the wells do not have grants. The increase of wells, without the correct control, exploring the aquifer can justify and intensify the problems of strong relief in the central region of the urban area by city. Then, this research aimed to develop a computational application how numerical simulation modeling of groundwater flow, to support the rational exploitation of the BAS. For the success of the numerical model, the entire hydrogeological characterization was performed and defined the conceptual model of groundwater flow. The numerical model was calibrated in steady state for two situations: pre-exploitation and current pumping, and then were generated three different future scenarios of pumping: a) exploitation twice larger than the current (Q = 133,206 m³/day); b) exploitation three times larger than the current (Q = 199 809 m³/day); and c) exploitation of only public wells (Q = 39,662 m³/day). There were averages of debasement in the urban area of 15 m, 42 m and 8 m, respectively. Most prominent debasements of groundwater level occurred in the central area of the city, which the concentrates is 80 % of the wells. Therefore, some actions are recommended directed to the well, to protect the aquifer and the user.