Esta tese de doutoramento trata da disputa entre o PSDB e o PT nas eleições presidenciais ocorridas no Brasil entre 1994 e 2006. O objetivo principal é identificar quais são as variáveis que estão associadas ao voto nos dois partidos que nos permitem prever com alguma precisão as chances de voto em cada um deles. A análise será procedida com auxílio de bancos de dados representativos dos eleitores brasileiros. São observadas diversas variáveis, classificadas em dois grupos: no primeiro estão as variáveis relacionadas a aspectos de longo prazo que incidem sobre o comportamento eleitoral, as características demográficas, sócio-econômicas e político-ideológicas dos eleitores, no segundo estão as variáveis ligadas diretamente ao processo eleitoral, as avaliações dos governos e dos candidatos. A hipótese mais importante a ser testada é que as variáveis de curto prazo têm impacto muito maior sobre as chances de voto nos partidos do que as variáveis de longo prazo. Isso indica que o contexto eleitoral afeta mais o resultado das eleições presidenciais do que qualquer aspecto estrutural, seja social, econômico ou político. Os resultados obtidos com a utilização de regressões logísticas corroboram a hipótese e apontam para diferenças importantes entre o voto no PSDB e no PT. / This Ph.D. thesis is about the dispute between the PSDB and PT for presidential elections ran in Brazil between 1994 e 2006. Its main objective is to identify the variables linked to votes given for both parties which would lead us to predict under a certain precision degree the chances each one has against other. The analysis is based on relevant databases from brazilian electoral activities. Several variables were observed and separated in two different groups: the first contains the ones related to long term aspects linked to the voters behavior as well as demographics, socio-economic, and political-ideological variables, while the second one contains the variables directly linked to the electoral process, to candidates evaluations and the country issues. The most important hypothesis to be tested is the one of short term variables making a bigger impact over each party vote chance when compared to the long term ones. Considering the hypothesis valuable, this presents the scenary of the electoral context with a bigger effect over presidential election than any other voter structural aspect either social, economic or political. The given result corroborates with the hypothesis and came from logistics regressions, pointing out relevant differences between votes given in favour of PSDB and PT.

The purpose of this study is to examine two major psychological determinants of the vote in presidential elections - candidate image and party orientation. The central thesis of this study is that candidate image, as measured here, has been a greater determinant of electoral choice in the majority of presidential elections since 1952 than has party orientation. One of the vices as well as virtues of a democratic society is that the people often get what they want. This is especially true in the case of electing our leaders. Political scientists have often concentrated their efforts on attempting to ascertain why people vote as they do. Studies have been conducted focusing on the behavior of voters in making that important decision-who should govern?

<p> </p><p>The 2008 U.S. Presidential Elections were in many ways special, where the USA got its first president of Afro-American origin, Barack Obama. The elections will also be historical since the great use of social medias - as the community Facebook, the video sharing site YouTube and web based diaries, blogs - broke through during the campaigns. This study's purpose was to examine how a few members of the Swedish parliament described the result of the Presidential Elections in their blogs. The main question - how the election results were described in the blogs - was divided into three themes, created on the basis of the blog's content. The themes were Barack Obama, John McCain and the future. To answer the questions a qualitative text analysis was made, in order to analyze the positive and negative values and opinions in the blog posts. The results showed that the majority of the chosen seven bloggers - one from each parliament party - had a positive view of Barack Obama's victory. Obama's winner speech got special attention. Regarding John McCain, he was described as a good loser, even though - as in the Obama theme - there were exceptions. The majority of the bloggers had an optimistic view of the future, but the most of them thought that Obama will face many difficult challenges, like the financial crisis and the anxiety in the Middle East. In the final discussion Obama's election campaign, with it's engagement in social medias, and hope for a better future, were the main causes to the overall optimistic view in the blogs. Finally, a discussion about what didactic consequences the blog's place in education in civics will have. More participation and better insight into the political life are two positive consequences. Dragging peoples name in the mud and the creating of false rumors are two negative consequences. Key words: blog, social media, presidential elections, Swedish parliament members.</p><p> </p><p> </p>

The 2008 U.S. Presidential Elections were in many ways special, where the USA got its first president of Afro-American origin, Barack Obama. The elections will also be historical since the great use of social medias - as the community Facebook, the video sharing site YouTube and web based diaries, blogs - broke through during the campaigns. This study's purpose was to examine how a few members of the Swedish parliament described the result of the Presidential Elections in their blogs. The main question - how the election results were described in the blogs - was divided into three themes, created on the basis of the blog's content. The themes were Barack Obama, John McCain and the future. To answer the questions a qualitative text analysis was made, in order to analyze the positive and negative values and opinions in the blog posts. The results showed that the majority of the chosen seven bloggers - one from each parliament party - had a positive view of Barack Obama's victory. Obama's winner speech got special attention. Regarding John McCain, he was described as a good loser, even though - as in the Obama theme - there were exceptions. The majority of the bloggers had an optimistic view of the future, but the most of them thought that Obama will face many difficult challenges, like the financial crisis and the anxiety in the Middle East. In the final discussion Obama's election campaign, with it's engagement in social medias, and hope for a better future, were the main causes to the overall optimistic view in the blogs. Finally, a discussion about what didactic consequences the blog's place in education in civics will have. More participation and better insight into the political life are two positive consequences. Dragging peoples name in the mud and the creating of false rumors are two negative consequences. Key words: blog, social media, presidential elections, Swedish parliament members.

This thesis seeks to understand the relationship between county level economic voting and county level economic voting by demographic group on county level vote shares for U.S. presidential elections. Using an entity and time fixed effects regression model, I study the effects that county level growth in real per capita personal income and unemployment rate change have on county level two-party vote share for the Democratic Party. Additionally, I observe the responsiveness of a county’s voting behavior due to the demographic makeup of that specific county. I then compare my initial results to those of Eisenberg and Ketcham (2004) for the 1992-2000 presidential elections. I utilize the same models for the 2004-2012 elections to compare these results to those from the 1992-2000 elections. Additionally, I rerun my model for the 1992-2000 presidential elections, after restricting my economic data to non-outliers, to study the effects that outliers in economic conditions have on my original results.

總統選舉對法國和台灣股票市場的影響 / The relationship between politics, especially presidential elections, and stock markets has been a topic widely covered in the United States. We propose in this research to focus on France and Taiwan, two free countries regarding the civil rights and politic liberties, with a direct presidential election system. We will put them in perspective and analyse if similarities and differences can be identified, regarding the presidential market cycles and the presence of abnormal returns around presidential elections, in comparison of the US. Regarding the presidential market cycle analysis, a very close, but not significant pattern has been found for both French indices compared to the US. The TAIEX in Taiwan shows a very different pattern as Yearly Average Return are alternatively positive and negative, suggesting two cycles in a presidential term. This observation is not applicable for big and mid-caps indices in Taiwan. In addition, not any significant differences have been found between the YAR of big and mid-caps indices for the two countries respectively. Analysing the abnormal returns, significant positive CAARs are found for Taiwan big and mid-caps. For the big-caps index, this result is found for the (-28, 28) period while for the mid-caps, the associated period is (-28,-15) days before the election. The loss of the incumbent shows significant strong negative CAAR for the 1-month period prior and after the elections. The win of this one shows significant positive CAAR for the period associated to the 15 first days of the presidential campaign. The win of the party in power shows the same results, only when we consider big-caps indices.

Thesis (M.A.)--Miami University, Dept. of History, 2006. / Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 56-57).

New Hampshire has become a competitive swing state in presidential elections over the past two decades. Though New Hampshire was once a reliable red state and the home for many “Yankee Republicans,” the state has experienced a shift toward the Democratic Party beginning in the early 1990s. Scholars often attribute this shift to the “migration theory,” arguing that the influx of Massachusetts liberals who migrated to New Hampshire in the latter half of the twentieth century has created a larger Democratic voting bloc in the state. However, a county-level analysis of New Hampshire provides a different story. Southern urban counties with the highest migration rates, such as Hillsborough and Rockingham, had relatively small gains of Democratic voters and remain competitive swing counties. Northern rural counties with much lower migration rates, such as Coos and Grafton, have experienced a far greater political shift to the left. By using both of these case studies, this report casts doubt on the “migration theory” by showing that numerical migration rates do not fully account for New Hampshire’s shift. Instead, this report finds that the different types of economies in the southern and northern parts of New Hampshire significantly influence the political effects of migration in the state, offering a more nuanced theory based on county-level data than the one currently provided for the state as a whole.

Esta tese de doutoramento trata da disputa entre o PSDB e o PT nas eleições presidenciais ocorridas no Brasil entre 1994 e 2006. O objetivo principal é identificar quais são as variáveis que estão associadas ao voto nos dois partidos que nos permitem prever com alguma precisão as chances de voto em cada um deles. A análise será procedida com auxílio de bancos de dados representativos dos eleitores brasileiros. São observadas diversas variáveis, classificadas em dois grupos: no primeiro estão as variáveis relacionadas a aspectos de longo prazo que incidem sobre o comportamento eleitoral, as características demográficas, sócio-econômicas e político-ideológicas dos eleitores, no segundo estão as variáveis ligadas diretamente ao processo eleitoral, as avaliações dos governos e dos candidatos. A hipótese mais importante a ser testada é que as variáveis de curto prazo têm impacto muito maior sobre as chances de voto nos partidos do que as variáveis de longo prazo. Isso indica que o contexto eleitoral afeta mais o resultado das eleições presidenciais do que qualquer aspecto estrutural, seja social, econômico ou político. Os resultados obtidos com a utilização de regressões logísticas corroboram a hipótese e apontam para diferenças importantes entre o voto no PSDB e no PT. / This Ph.D. thesis is about the dispute between the PSDB and PT for presidential elections ran in Brazil between 1994 e 2006. Its main objective is to identify the variables linked to votes given for both parties which would lead us to predict under a certain precision degree the chances each one has against other. The analysis is based on relevant databases from brazilian electoral activities. Several variables were observed and separated in two different groups: the first contains the ones related to long term aspects linked to the voters behavior as well as demographics, socio-economic, and political-ideological variables, while the second one contains the variables directly linked to the electoral process, to candidates evaluations and the country issues. The most important hypothesis to be tested is the one of short term variables making a bigger impact over each party vote chance when compared to the long term ones. Considering the hypothesis valuable, this presents the scenary of the electoral context with a bigger effect over presidential election than any other voter structural aspect either social, economic or political. The given result corroborates with the hypothesis and came from logistics regressions, pointing out relevant differences between votes given in favour of PSDB and PT.

Esta dissertação trata do estudo da volatilidade eleitoral nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras no período de 1989 a 2006 na escala dos municípios brasileiros. Foi calculada a volatilidade eleitoral em quatro períodos: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002 e 2002/2006. Os cálculos foram feitos por meio do índice de volatilidade entre blocos de partidos (Bartolini e Mair 1990). A geografia eleitoral da volatilidade eleitoral municipal desses períodos é apresentada através de tabelas e mapas. Os municípios brasileiros são Identificados e classificados em cinco grupos pelo número de vezes em que eles apresentaram taxas altas de volatilidade no período de 1989 a 2006. Por fim é analisada a possível correlação entre essa classificação e algumas variáveis socioeconômicas. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que altas taxas de volatilidade eleitoral durante as eleições presidenciais nos municípios brasileiros estiveram correlacionadas a índices baixos de condição de vida e educacionais. / This dissertation is on the electoral volatility in Brazilian presidential elections between 1989 and 2006 on Brazilian municipalities scale. The electoral volatility of four periods was calculated: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002, and 2002/2006. The calculations were made using the inter-bloc volatility index (Bartolini and Mair, 1990). The electoral geography of municipal electoral volatility is presented through maps and tables. The Brazilian municipalities were identified and classified into five groups according to the incidence of high volatility in the period 1989 to 2006. Finally, there is an analysis of the possible correlation between this classification and some socioeconomic variables. The results indicate that high rates of electoral volatility during presidential elections in Brazilian municipalities were correlated with low rates of education and life condition.