In the 2004 Presidential Election social and wedge issues were among the most publicized mobilization tools utilized by the Bush Campaign. Specifically, same-sex marriage has been suggested as a key wedge issue that may have mobilized voters, although research differs on its impact. My contention is that these previous studies miss the point with regard to wedge issues, which is that they are useful on persuadable voters, and persuadable voters live in swing states. I estimate a logit model using 2004 American National Election Studies survey data. I utilize voters’ decisions to turn out as the dependent variable and control for respondents’ positions on terrorism, the economy, same-sex marriage, political interest, party identification, and socio-economic status. These findings demonstrate, consistent with my hypothesis, voters in swing same-sex marriage ballot measure states were more likely to turn out. These voters may not have been persuadable, but rather the Republican base.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-03T12:31:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Pagina 1-55 Thybor Malusa.pdf: 548171 bytes, checksum: e3e39bbea731f0b7b05c03db9b0c5e73 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-04-04 / This thesis aims, through quantitative and qualitative content analysis, to further our understating how Veja magazine covered Fernando Henrique Cardoso election in 1998, and how his public image was formed through its publications from June to October of that year, which Fernando Henrique was elected in the first round, analyzing whether the magazine Veja has given more credit to FHC rather than to his opponents. In order to increase the knowledge about the subject, we studied the world behind political propaganda, ideological and political marketing, and also the magazines historical ideological values. Thus, it was concluded that the magazine during the period analyzed, has published more articles on Fernando Henrique Cardoso rather than any presidential candidate in 1998, always considering him as the best to govern the country, that time. Any material published significantly strengthened FHCs influence on Veja s readers, which has favored him during the campaign. / Esta dissertação tem por objetivo, através da análise de conteúdo de naturezas quantitativa e qualitativa, verificar como a revista Veja fez a cobertura da campanha eleitoral de Fernando Henrique Cardoso, em 1998, bem como verificar de que forma se deu a construção da imagem pública do candidato FHC pela publicação no período de junho a outubro do referido ano, no qual Fernando Henrique foi reeleito em primeiro turno, analisando se Veja deu mais espaço para FHC do que para seus oponentes. Para ampliar o conhecimento em relação ao objeto, estudou-se o universo da propaganda política, ideológica e do marketing político, bem como se discutiu os valores ideológicos históricos da revista Veja. Com isso, verificou-se que Veja, no período analisado, publicou mais matérias sobre Fernando Henrique Cardoso do que qualquer outro candidato à presidência, em 1998, além de colocá-lo, quase sempre, como o mais bem preparado para continuar à frente da presidência da República, naquela época. As matérias publicadas, portanto, fortaleceram significativamente a imagem de FHC perante os leitores de Veja, favorecendo-o em relação a seus oponentes.

The presented diploma thesis on the topic Direct election of the President in the Czech media environment aims to clarify how the selected internet news portals (iDnes.cz, iRozhlas.cz, Novinky.cz, Blesk.cz) reported on the second rounds of the direct election of the head of state in years 2013 and 2018. The theoretical part of this work focuses on the definition of theoretical concepts, such as media image, media product or representation. It also deals with the factors of the enactment of the direct election of the president and the resulting impact on society. In the analytical part, articles from selected servers in a specific period will be examined with the help of quantitative content analysis, which should, among other things, clarify how the media decided to approach this new institution.

This thesis examines the measurable effects of changing cultural values on American presidential election year issues from 1972 to 2000. Topics discussed: the long-term shift in cultural values and their impact on political parties, party support, and political priorities. There is congruence between the content of the two major political party platforms from 1972-2000 and the cultural priorities of party supporters as defined by their presidential vote. This relationship also holds true for the 'most significant issue facing the nation' variable in the National Election Studies and presidential vote choice. These results are reproduced in a completely different data set of active political participants (follow the news closely, participate in political campaigns, vote consistently) assembled by Sydney Verba. Both political parties must contend with the tensions that arise from differing cultural priorities of their supporters. This applies both within the parties as they must assemble winning electoral coalitions and between the parties which have taken on the cultural and political priorities of their strongest supporters. As the cultural priorities of major political party supporters shift, so have their quadrennial party platforms. / Master of Arts

The purpose of this thesis is to reveal the slanderous rhetoric of the Federalist and Republican parties during the American presidential election of 1800. Both parties relied on newspapers, pamphlets, sermons, and songs to influence public opinion; however, newspapers were the most effective means of swaying the voters. Although the Federalists, led by John Adams and Alexander Hamilton, had almost twice as many partisan newspapers to disseminate their propaganda, the Republicans, under the leadership of Thomas Jefferson, had a much larger number of journals that were substantially more dogmatic in their denunciations. This advantage, coupled with internal Federalist crises, enabled the Republicans to be victorious at the polls. This study proves that the campaign of 1800 was one of the most libelous and rancorous in United States history.

Nowadays social networks have millions or some even billions of users who spend most of their free time there. Therefore there is no surprise that the potential impact on society becomes part of many experts research. According to some authors, social networks offer an opportunity for political participation especially for those who generally do not participate. Even politicians start to use these networks to mobilize voters. We can observe this new trend in the first direct presidential elections in the Czech Republic 2013, when some of the candidates tried to reach and mobilize voters through social networks. During presidential campaign 2012/2013, users could have participated in various political activities which enabled sharing political views. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of using social networks during presidential elections, particularly using of Facebook, on interest in politics between users 18- 35 years. The diploma thesis focuses on the impact of Facebook because it is the most popular and used social network in the Czech Republic and also due to the fact that some experts argue that this social network played an important role in the presidential campaign. This paper will be based on quantitative research in form of a questionnaire survey, which was created on the...

L’abondante littérature existante sur la vie politique haïtienne, œuvres de propagande ou de réprobation des gouvernements, fait de l’histoire politique un lieu de règlement de compte, ce qui donne une allure de polémique passionnée aux textes de nos aînés. Avec cette thèse, nous rejoignons et nous contribuons au travail de quelques rares spécialistes, universitaires de sciences humaines et sociales, qui cherchent à renouveler l’histoire politique haïtienne. Étudier les mécanismes de la prise du pouvoir exécutif en Haïti, ce n’est pas seulement le fait de dénoncer des élections truquées, des coups d’État, des insurrections qualifiées à tort de révolution ; mais c’est surtout une volonté de montrer de nombreux efforts qui ont été faits pour instaurer un régime démocratique et moderniser la vie politique haïtienne. L’objectif du travail, c’est de montrer comment Haïti passait de l’acclamation du chef d’État aux insurrections, des armes aux bulletins de vote et aboutir au suffrage universel. / The Abundant literature on the Haitian political life, as works of propaganda or disapproval of the governments, fact of the political history a place of settling of score, which gives a pace to impassioned polemic concerning the written documents of the elder generation of historians. This thesis, join and contribute to the work of some rare social scientists, which seek to renew Haitian political history. Studying the mechanisms of the executive seizure of power in Haiti does not mean denouncing faked elections, putsch, revolts, that are wrongly qualified of revolution. But it especially concerns a will to show the efforts which were made to establish a democratic regime and to modernize the Haitian political life. The objective of this work is to explain how Haiti has passed from the acclamation of the Head of State to insurrections, from weapons to polls, and from polls to the vote for all.

O sistema partidário-eleitoral brasileiro é tido como um dos mais fragmentados do mundo. As inferências para esse diagnóstico são extraídas do padrão de competição nas eleições proporcionais. O propósito da tese é estudar o sistema partidário brasileiro a partir das eleições majoritárias de 1989-2006. A tese tem como foco entender a dinâmica da competição política nessas disputas a partir da ação estratégica das elites partidárias. Do ponto de vista substantivo, o trabalho busca contribuir para o entendimento dos mecanismos que garantiram a dominância de PT e PSDB nas eleições presidenciais a partir de 1994. A tese busca demonstrar, ainda, a existência de estabilidade das clivagens políticas se tomarmos os Estados individualmente. O ponto de partida é que as eleições executivas são as mais importantes, tanto para as elites políticas como para os eleitores. Partidos políticos hierarquizam os diferentes pleitos. O argumento do trabalho é que o mecanismo central que garantiu a estabilidade da clivagem PT-PSDB foi a articulação nacional das candidaturas por meio das eleições para o governo do Estado. Esses dois partidos foram capazes de reproduzir essa clivagem nas diferentes disputas estaduais. A evidência empírica utilizada na análise é a frequência do lançamento de candidaturas dos nove maiores partidos nas eleições executivas. O custo de entrada das eleições majoritárias leva à criação de mercados eleitorais distintos no interior do sistema partidário brasileiro. O alto custo decorrente da baixa magnitude das eleições executivas torna esse mercado bastante concentrado. Assim, o padrão da competição política nas eleições majoritárias não apenas se encontra de acordo com a literatura institucionalista mas também apresenta uma estabilidade na identidade dos competidores tanto nas eleições presidenciais como, em menor medida, nas eleições para o governo estadual. / The brazilian electoral-party system is considered one of the most fragmented in the world. That diagnosis is based on the pattern of competition in proportional elections. The purpose of this thesis is to study the brazilian party system from the perspective of executive elections from 1989 to 2006. This thesis focuses on understanding the dynamics of political competition in these disputes from the strategic action of the party elites. Our central aim is to contribute to the understanding of the mechanisms that ensured the dominance of PT and PSDB in the presidential elections since 1994. This thesis seeks to demonstrate also the existence of stability of political divisions if the states are taken individually. The starting point of this work is that the executive elections are the most important for both political elites and voters. Political parties rank the different types of competition. The argument of this paper is that the central mechanism which ensured the stability of the PT-PSDB cleavage was the articulation of national contest through the elections to the government of the state. These two parties were able to reproduce the various disputes in the states. The empirical evidence used in the analysis is the frequency of the launch of applications of the nine major parties in the executive elections. The cost of entering the elections majority takes the creation of separate markets within the electoral party system in Brazil. The high costs of low executive elections make this market highly concentrated. Thus, the pattern of the executive elections is not only according to the institutionalist literature, but also shows stability in the identity of competitors both in the presidential elections and, to a lesser extent, in elections to the states governments.

As eleições presidenciais são a principal competição do sistema político brasileiro. Há duas proposições dominantes que perpassam as análises da literatura sobre sua natureza e dinâmica: o Programa Bolsa-Família (PBF) é considerado central e determinante para os resultados eleitorais e teria contribuído, no pleito de 2006, para conformar um realinhamento das bases eleitorais do PT, único partido competitivo em todas as eleições. O programa social é considerado fundamental para explicar a força deste partido no Nordeste e entre eleitores pobres. Nesta tese, por meio de replicação de modelos da literatura e da análise de modelos originais a partir de survey, de dados agregados ao nível municipal e ao nível das urnas, e com a aplicação de diferentes metodologias, procuro debater essas hipóteses, apontando inconsistências e deficiências teóricas, metodológicas e empíricas. Os resultados apontam para diagnósticos alternativos às teses vigentes. Primeiro, procuro argumentar que a relação entre as mudanças eleitorais de 2006 e os perfis sociais dos eleitores ocorrem de forma heterogênea pelas regiões e tipos de localidade, e que, após mensuração adequada, essas flutuações são melhor compreendidas como movimentações de eleitores voláteis, e não como realinhamento de bases eleitorais. Além disso, contrariamente às análises correntes, ressalto que a investigação sobre o efeito eleitoral do PBF não deve ser restrita aos seus beneficiários e nem se pode inferir sua importância no resultado eleitoral a partir da sua distribuição regional. Antes, as análises conduzidas nesta tese revelam que o impacto do programa social para as decisões eleitorais foi mais importante no Sudeste que no Nordeste, e não se restringe a eleitores diretamente beneficiários do programa. Por fim, mostro que, após enquadramento adequado, é possível dizer que o impacto do PBF para o resultado eleitoral não foi tão pronunciado ou determinante dos resultados eleitorais. Do ponto de vista mais geral, meu argumento ressalta que as bases eleitorais de longo-prazo dos partidos influenciam os resultados presentes, matizando a importância das mudanças ocorridas em 2006, e sublinha que o efeito do PBF, assim como de qualquer outra política pública com peso político-eleitoral, não pode ser tomado isoladamente, fora do contexto da disputa eleitoral e política. / The presidential elections are the main competition of the Brazilian political system. The current literature on the subject pointed out two thesis about the nature and dynamic of presidential elections: The Bolsa-Família (PBF) conditional cash transfer program is considered to be central and determinant to the electoral results and in 2006 would have contributed to realign the electoral bases of PT, the only party competitive in all elections. The policy is considered to be fundamental to explain the strength of the party on Northeast among poor electors. On this dissertation I examine these hypothesis and debate the theoretical, methodological and empirical inconsistences and deficiencies of the current literature. In order to do so, I replicate models, analyze novel models looking at surveys and aggregate data on the municipal level and on ballot level, among other methods. The results highlight conclusions different from the standing literature. First, I argue that the correlation between the electoral changes of 2006 and the social profile of electors occur heterogeneously over different regions and localities. If the proper measure is applied, these variations are better understood as a movement of volatile electors and not as realignment of electoral bases. Moreover, contrary to the current literature, I emphasize that the investigation over the electoral effect of the PBF shouldn\'t be restricted to its beneficiaries and neither that it is possible to infer its importance on the electoral result based on its regional distribution. Contrarily, based on the data we gathered, the impact of the PBF to the electoral results was more important on the Southeast than on the Northeast and it is not restricted to electors directly beneficed by the program. Still, I argue that if the adequate framework is adopted, it is possible to say that the impact of the PBF on the electoral results wasn\'t very strong or determinant to the electoral result. I conclude that the parties\' long term electoral bases influence on present results, minimizing the fluctuations that occurred in 2006. As it happens with all the policies with high potential to impact on voters decisions, the effect of the PBF cannot be analyzed separately, it has to be considered inside the context of the electoral and political dispute.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-29T13:17:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Renata de Souza Huallem Pasquinelli.pdf: 1715413 bytes, checksum: c9e54b3e8ccbaeec778bd434df58e7c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-29 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Based on the proposed analysis of socially constructed knowledge and social representations in a Behavior Analytic perspective (Guerin, 1992) and on studies that analyze the role of the media in this process, the present study analyzed the second round electoral programs of the 2014 presidential elections. The questions that guided the analysis was to evaluate if the print media and the voting polls affect the content of electoral programs, identify differences in verbal responses of the candidates as the responses resemble tacts, intraverbals or use of subject repetition. The programs were divided into scenes and these scenes were classified as: speakers, pictures, themes, valuation and whether they were positive or negatives. The main results were: there is interference of the press headlines on the topics covered in the electoral program; the voting polls control to which listener the electoral program is intended to, the programs show differences in the responses that could be tacts, intraverbals or use of scenes repetition. From the analysis of the data it is concluded that depending on these differences (between the programs) one electoral program can be more efficient than the other in changing the voter behavior / construído e das representações sociais sob a ótica da Análise do Comportamento (Guerin, 1992) e de trabalhos que analisam o papel da mídia neste processo. Este estudo analisou os Programas Eleitorais Gratuitos do segundo turno das eleições presidências de 2014. As questões que nortearam a análise foram avaliar se a mídia impressa e as pesquisas de intenção de voto afetam o conteúdo dos programas, identificar diferenças nas respostas verbais dos candidatos quanto a emissão de respostas que se assemelhem a tatos, a intraverbais ou a utilização de repetição de certos conteúdos. Os programas foram divididos em cenas e estas foram classificadas quanto a: falantes, imagens, temas, valoração e se eram positivas ou negativas.Os principais resultados revelaram: há interferência das manchetes exibidas na mídia impressa sobre os temas abordados; as pesquisas de intenção de voto controlam para qual ouvinte o programa se destina, os programas apresentaram diferenças na emissão de respostas que poderiam ser tatos, intraverbais ou no uso de repetições de cenas. A partir da análise se conclui que a depender destas diferenças entre os programas um pode ser mais eficiente que outro em alterar o comportamento do eleitor