The aim of this thesis is in the theoretical part generally describe the basic structure of the business plan and briefly describe separate counts, in the practical part create business plan for a real project. This project is to use the realproperty for business in the area of accommodation. The plan outlines the initial market situation, the necessary steps in the staffing and marketing activities, captures the outlook for profits. At the end of the plan is an evaluation of the project, which showed that the project has the potential to succeed and can be recommended for implementation.

This research explores the theory and practice of risk assessment and project evaluationand proposes novel alternatives. Reviewing literature revealed a continuous endeavourfor better project risk modelling and analysis. A number of proposals for improving theprevailing Probability-Impact (P-I) risk model can be found in literature. Moreover,researchers have investigated the feasibility of different theories in analysing projectrisk. Furthermore, various decision support systems (DSSs) are available for aidingpractitioners in risk assessment and decision making. Unfortunately, they are sufferingfrom a low take-up. Instead, personal judgment and past experience are mainly used foranalysing risk and making decisions.In this research, a new risk model is proposed through extending the P-I risk model toinclude a third dimension: probability of impact materialisation. Such an extensionreflects the characteristics of a risk, its surrounding environment and the ability ofmitigating its impact. A new assessment methodology is devised. Dempster-ShaferTheory of Evidence (DST) is researched and presented as a novel alternative toProbability Theory (PT) and Fuzzy Sets Theory (FST) which dominate the literature ofproject risks analysis. A DST-based assessment methodology was developed forstructuring the personal experience and professional judgment of risk analysts andutilising them for risk analysis. Benefiting from the unique features of the EvidentialReasoning (ER) approach, the proposed methodology enables analysts to express theirevaluations in distributed forms, so that they can provide degrees of belief in apredefined set of assessment grades based on available information. This is a veryeffective way for tackling the problem of lack of information which is an inherentfeature of most projects during the tendering stage. It is the first time that such anapproach is ever used for handling construction risk assessment. Monetary equivalent isused as a common scale for measuring risk impact on various project success objectives,and the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm is used as an assessment aggregation toolinstead of the simple averaging procedure which might not be appropriate in allsituations. A DST-based project evaluation framework was developed using projectrisks and benefits as evaluation attributes. Monetary equivalent was used also as acommon scale for measuring project risks and benefits and the ER algorithm as anaggregation tool.The viability of the proposed risk model, assessment methodology and projectevaluation framework was investigated through conducting interviews with constructionprofessionals and administering postal and online questionnaires. A decision supportsystem (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approaches and to perform therequired calculations. The DSS was developed in light of the research findingsregarding the reasons of low take-up of the existing tools. Four validation case studieswere conducted. Senior managers in separate British construction companies tested thetool and found it useful, helpful and easy to use.It is concluded that the proposed risk model, risk assessment methodology and projectevaluation framework could be viable alternatives to the existing ones. Professionalexperience was modelled and utilised systematically for risk and benefit analysis. Thismay help closing the gap between theory and practice of risk analysis and decisionmaking in construction. The research findings recommend further exploration of thepotential applications of DST and ER in construction management domain.

The main goal of diploma thesis is to set up the prospectus. In the concrete it proceed about activity connected with expansion of company from wholesale market to area of retailing. The thesis includes proposal of investment project. Based on dynamic methods, there is recommendation to privat investor.

The topic of the diploma thesis is evaluation of the project "Don't get lost in old age". This project is focused on education and counseling in topics of aging. In theoretical part, I focus on description of current situation of old age and aging, summarize old age associated key problems to which the project tries to respond. I also describe the concept of dignity, clarify the needs of seniors and their families. I also mention the possibilities of social services that focus on the elderly or support the carers. The main topic of the work is to introduce and evaluate the consulting portal and all its activities. The project includes many professionals such as a lawyer, nutritionist, financial expert, psychologist and social worker. Range of areas of consultations is therefore wide. However, in order for the project to reach the public as much as possible, it is necessary to direct activities right, to promote the consulting portal and increase interest in the topic of old age and aging with it. In practical part, through interviews with experts and project participants, I evaluate the functionality of the project and I map where improvements would be appropriate. Using an evaluation questionnaire, I focus on client satisfaction with consulting and, based on statistics, I also evaluate the success...

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(工学) / 乙第12981号 / 論工博第4128号 / 新制||工||1637(附属図書館) / 32451 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 教授 谷口 栄一, 教授 大津 宏康 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

yes / This paper is a literature review of Logical Framework ideas for the management of the cycle for the planning and implementation of development projects - the "Project Cycle" (MacArthur 1994) The ideas and nature of the LogFrame (as it is generally called) are deceptively simple, with all the thinking and targets for a project represented in a simple 16 cell worksheet, which it is intended should be written on one or at the most two sheets of A4 paper. The underlying intention of this approach is for the objectives of a project or any other intervention to be explicitly defined from an early stage, so as to strengthen the logic of the planning at different levels of a project's performance, and the evaluation of progress when the plans are implemented. A summary matrix for the presentation of all this was first proposed in the US Government in 1970, and the idea not only soon took firm root there in AID, but has been adopted in original or modified form by a very large proportion of Development Assistance Agencies. The appeal of the simple logic behind the LogFrame idea has been very strong, and the ideas are an established part of all the set of tools of all development planners working at the micro level. / ID-7098D - Project Planning and Financial Analysis

[pt] Até 1997 o Setor Elétrico Brasileiro (SEB) era basicamente um monopólio estatal administrado por empresas federais e estaduais. A partir do segundo semestre de 1997 foram iniciadas as privatizações, e em paralelo a reestruturação do setor. Antes do processo de reestruturação do SEB, o planejamento da expansão da geração era feito de forma coordenada e centralizada, com o objetivo de minimizar os custos de investimento e operação. A expansão da geração era uma variável de decisão do problema. No entanto, um dos pressupostos da reestruturação do setor foi e continua sendo a realização pelo agente privado de grande parte dos novos investimentos em geração e transmissão. Dessa maneira, a decisão sobre a expansão da geração deixa de ser centralizada e passa a depender da disposição de investimento deste agente, acarretando no aumento do nível de incertezas no processo de planejamento. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho visa estudar a dinâmica de investimentos privados em geração termelétrica no Brasil utilizando a Teoria das Opções Reais. A dinâmica de investimentos em termelétricas será estudada em três situações diferentes. Na primeira, será utilizado um modelo de opções reais / análise de decisão para determinar as estratégias de escolha do melhor momento de construção de um empreendimento considerando que há incerteza exógena na expansão da oferta de termelétricas. Na segunda, será utilizado o mesmo modelo para determinar as estratégias de momento de construção de uma termelétrica considerando que há incerteza na demanda, e que a expansão da oferta permanece constante. Na terceira, a expansão da oferta ocorre em resposta às incertezas e à interação entre os agentes. Será utilizado um modelo de opções reais / análise de decisão / teoria dos jogos. Os principais resultados obtidos no trabalho foram os prêmios de risco exigidos pelo investidor para realizar o investimento imediato e a determinação do melhor momento de investimento em função de algumas variáveis do problema. Foi possível comparar as diferentes situações estudadas, mostrando que a concorrência pode atrasar investimentos. / [en] Until 1997 The Brazilian Electric Sector was basically a monopoly administrated by federal and state enterprises. In the second semester of 1997 it was begun privatizations and the restructuring process. Before Brazilian Electric Sector restructuring process, the planning of generation expansion was made through a centralized program which focus in minimize the investment and operation costs. The generation expansion was a decision variable of the problem. However, one of the assumptions of the restructuring sector process was and continues to be the private agent realization of a big share of the new investment in generation. So, the generation expansion is not more centralized, becoming a variable, which depends of the investment affordability of this agent. In this context, the present thesis studies the private investment dynamics in thermoelectric generation using Real Options. The dynamic of investment in thermal Plants will be studied in three different situations: In the first, it will be used a model of real options / decision analysis to determine the best timing of construction, considering that exists an exogenous uncertainty in the thermal supply expansion. In the second situation, the same model will be used to define the best timing of investment in thermal plants, considering that exists demand uncertainty, and that the supply expansion remains constant. In the third situation, the supply expansion occurs in response of the demand uncertainty evolution and the strategic interactions between the agents. It will be used a real options/ decision analysis/ game theory model. The main results obtained were the threshold contracted prices and the determination of the best time to invest as a function of some problem variables. It was possible to compare the different studied situations, showing that the competition could delay investments.

The rapidly evolving global market scenario raised multiple challenges for an organization such as: change in customer needs and lifestyle, increased competition, compulsion to enter into new markets, pursue to innovate and so on, which raises an additional challenge for organization to sustain and succeed. In order to meet these multiple challenges, continuous New Product Development (NPD) turns out to be one of the essential tasks for any organization to improve market share, profitability and to succeed. In this scenario, a new product portfolio with best mix of new projects that ensures strategic alignment, balance of portfolio and improves organizations’ potential gain is compulsion. However, From the literature, it is observed that, ‘As nearly half of initial NPD ideas occur informally or without a specific goal, even a best performing organization requires a major improvement in the decision making process of Project Evaluation and Selection (PES)’. This emphasizes the significance of decision on Project Evaluation and Selection (PES) of NPD. Additionally, huge investments and resources need to be employed based on decision that is taken at PES phase of NPD. Thus PES turns out to be a crucial and essential phase of New Product Process (NPP). All these stated aspects of this challenging and crucial strategic decision of PES provoke for the requirement of an efficient management system and decision making model. In the literature the management system and decision making processes for formulation of portfolio is termed as “New Product Portfolio Management (NPPM)”. Though various researchers have been focusing on this particular issue of improving NPPM Performance, from the analysis of literature, to the best of our knowledge, it is observed that no one has identified or considered an exhaustive list of possible evaluative dimensions while taking the decision on PES of NPPM (PES-NPPM). This thesis makes an attempt to address this research gap, and the scope of this study is pertained to three sectors of manufacturing industry, namely, Automotive, Electronics and Machine Tools. Accordingly, the main objective of this thesis is “ In order to achieve this particular objective the following sub-objectives, methodologies, and analysis are carried out. For this purpose, first and foremost analysis of literature on PES is carried out. Accordingly, five evaluative dimensions are identified for PES-NPPM and they are: (i) Strategic Fit; (ii) Portfolio-Innovation Balance; (iii) Risk-Uncertainty Estimation; (iv) Cost-Revenue Estimation and (v) Optimized Resource Allocation. Furthermore, it is observed that, there is no study considering all the five evaluative dimensions simultaneously for PES-NPPM either to analyze their impact on performance of NPPM or to develop a decision making model. Thus, we are addressing a new problem configuration in the area of PES-NPPM. Additionally, though the requirements of multi-criteria models for PES-NPPM is discussed both in academic and practioners points of view, the real demonstration of the applicability of multi-criteria models are given a scant treatment in the literature. . By the end of the achieving this objective, we identified five distinct evaluative dimensions which are used in different combinations for PES-NPPM. Further, for measuring each of these five evaluative dimensions, we identified 23, 11, 15, 10, and 18 measurement variables respectively. Based on the evaluative dimensions considered in this study, a framework work is proposed for PES-NPPM. Due to the limitation of empirical evidences on considering the identified evaluative dimensions and respective measurement variables towards the proposed initial framework for PES-NPPM, another exploratory study: a case study method is carried out. In addition to the process of triangulation, the case study approach is carried out to understand (a) significance and nature of the identified measurement variables of all the five evaluative dimensions for PES-NPPM, and (b) real-life practices in decision making process of PES-NPPM and to identify the requirements of decision making tools. Accordingly, 12 case studies (4 each) from three manufacturing sectors, considered in this study, are conducted. Further, 12 case study reports are prepared and inferences are drawn. The inferences drawn are verified by conducting an individual brain-storming session with 3 academicians and 4 practitioners. The detailed analysis of the 12 case study reports endorsed the necessity of considering all the five identified evaluative dimensions in the proposed framework for PES-NPPM. In addition, the case study analysis revealed some of the variables originally considered for measuring the evaluative dimensions are not really the measurement variables, whereas those variables are expected to impact the decision making environment of PES-NPPM (or) NPPM Performance. Further those non-measurement variables are classified into (a) Characteristic Variables of PES-NPPM, and (b) Moderating variables for NPPM. Based on this, case study analysis identified 8 characteristic variables and 8 moderating variables. This specific observation resulted to analyze further the existing literature in order to identify if there exist any additional variables which impact decision making environment of PES-NPPM (or) NPPM Performance. Thus, from the analysis of literature and case study analysis 17 characteristic variable and 13 moderating variables are identified. Additionally, For this purpose, Partial Least Square – Path Modeling (PLS-PM) (or) regression analysis is conducted depending upon type of variables with 104 observations (representing 34, 39, and 31 observations of the three sectors respectively) to analyze the relationships between characteristic and moderating variables on decision-making environment of PES-NPPM and NPPM Performance respectively. From case study analysis, it is observed that the decision making tool required should provide: (a) ability to incorporate judgmental scores along with financial and other quantitative metrics, (b) ability to attain a balance of portfolio and consider interactions among project, and (c) ability to provide alternatives and rank the alternatives. In addition to the observation drawn from the case study analysis on the need of MCDM based tool(s), analysis of the literature is carried out to verify the same. As this problem scenario considers both quantitative and qualitative data for the development of a decision making tool, an appropriate technique/methodology needs to be employed. Based on analysis of literature and the case study reports, this study proposes an integrated Data Envelopment Analysis and Balanced Scorecard (DEA-BSC) model for individual PES. Further, the proposed DEA-BSC model is extended for evaluation of new product portfolio. In the process of formulation of new product portfolio, first, every new product project is evaluated with the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model. Second, an algorithm is designed to generate alternate portfolios with the selected set of efficient new product projects. Then, DEA-BSC model is employed to evaluate the generated portfolios. At this step, an accumulation functions are proposed which considers interactions among projects. These accumulation functions determine the overall input and output of the portfolio along with interactions involved. Accordingly, the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model for portfolio evaluation is expected to result in a balanced portfolio with profitable new product projects. In addition, the workability of the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model is demonstrated by developing a suitable numerical example. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on proposed DEA-BSC model to analyze the robustness of the results. In summary, this thesis examined a problem of decision making of NPPM. Further, this problem was retained with main focus on PES phase. Accordingly, the major contributions of this thesis are as follows: Identified an exhaustive lists of evaluative dimensions: (i) Strategic Fit; (ii) Portfolio-Innovation Balance; (iii) Risk-Uncertainty Estimation; (iv) Cost-Revenue Estimation and (v) Optimized Resource Allocation. Also identified the significance of these five dimensions in case of PES-NPPM. In addition, all the five evaluative dimensions are considered simultaneously for development of a multi criteria decision making tool for PES-NPPM. Identified the required measurement variables for each of the evaluative dimensions, considered in this study, that are essential for PES, and analyzed their influence on performance of NPPM. Identified and analyzed characteristic and moderating variables that influence decision making environment of PES-NPPM and performance of NPPM respectively. Identified the requirements of a decision making tool for PES-NPPM and developed an integrated DEA-BSC model for PES. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model is considered to be the first hybrid model applied to PES-NPPM. Furthermore for implementing the proposed DEA-BSC model, an algorithm is proposed in this study and this is expected to assist decision maker for selecting the right set of projects for new product portfolio with higher development potential, profitability and minimize the associated risk. Identified possible project interactions caused due to external or internal factors and accordingly proposed an accumulation function to capture these interactions. Proposed an algorithm for formulation of new product portfolio and accordingly proposed a detail step-by-step procedure for implementation of the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model. Though this study analyzes the impact of characteristic variables on decision-making environment of PES-NPPM, we limit to link this impact to DEA-BSC Model. In this study, an attempt is made to capture the moderating effect on NPPM Performance, but this study limits to link this moderating effect in proposed DEA-BSC model. Finally, the validation of the workability of proposed DEA-BSC model is limited to the numerical example considered in the study and not to the real-life problems scenarios.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Everyone, generally. would like to make good decisions, or receive the greatest benefit from a decision made. Companies are no different in this respect and the process of selecting an investment project portfolio has become an important activity. This is, further, complicated by the fact that companies have multiple, and often, conflicting objectives in a situation of capital rationing. This study project proposes a conceptual framework for project portfolio establishment, for application in an industrial manufacturing type environment, by integrating project evaluation and selection, a multi-criteria decision analysis technique and group decision-making. The project issues, the selection of a multi-criteria decision analysis technique and group decisionmaking are dealt with sequentially and then integrated to develop this conceptual framework. The explorative part of this study project deals with project evaluation and selection issues, and the concept of the triple bottom line is proposed to capture the multiple objectives of the company's decision context. Further, decision analysis concepts are reviewed and three categories of multi-criteria decision analysis methods identified. Selected methods in these categories are described, examined and the advantages and drawbacks of the different categories highlighted. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is proposed as the underlying multi-criteria decision analysis technique to support this conceptual framework. Group decision-making is investigated, and aggregation procedures and a method of consistency checking suggested. Finally, the framework is applied to a hypothetical case and the results presented. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Oor die algemeen wil almal goeie besluite neem, of maksimum voordeel uit die besluite trek. Maatskappye het dieselfde motivering en die aktiwiteit om 'n kapitaalinvesteringsportfolio saam te stel word as van groot belang beskou. Hierdie aktiwiteit is ook deur die werklikheid van vele, dikwels teenstrydige doelwitte sowel as beperkte fondse bemoeilik. In hierdie werkstuk word 'n begripsraamwerk vir die daarstelling van 'n investeringsportfolio vir kapitaalprojekte in 'n nywerheidsomgewing, wat projekevaluering en - keuring, veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemingstegnieke en groepsbesluitneming insluit, voorgestel. Projekverwante faktore, die keuse van 'n veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemingstegniek en derdens groepsbesluitneming word apart bespreek en daarna in die bogenoemde raamwerk geintegreer. Die navorsingsgedeelte van hierdie werkstuk verwys na die evaluering en keuse van projekte. Die begrip van 'n drievoudige maatstaf ('triple bottom line') om die kompleksiteit van 'n maatskappy se besluitnemingsdoelwitte te illustreer, word ondersteun. Daarna word besluitnemingsbegrippe bespreek en drie kategoriee van tegnieke vir veelvoudige kriterium besluitnemings uitgelig. Onder hierdie kategoriee is verkose metodes beskryf en ondersoek, en voor- en nadele van die kategoriee uitgewys. Die Analitiese Hierargie proses word voorgestel as basis van die begripsraamwerk. Groepsbesluitneming word ondersoek en versamelingsmetodes met kontrole vir konsekwentheid word voorgestel. Laastens word die besluitnemingsraamwerk op 'n denkbeeldige geval toegepas en word die resultate bespreek.

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo estudar os principais conceitos que definem a responsabilidade social corporativa e refletir sobre o papel das empresas na sociedade onde estão inseridas. A partir da definição da atuação social como parte de uma estratégia de responsabilidade social nas empresas, foram pesquisadas algumas características destas ações sociais, identificando as formas como são avaliados seus resultados e verificando se é possível desenvolver ações que ao mesmo tempo produzam benefícios sociais e vantagens competitivas para as empresas. O referencial teórico trata do tema da responsabilidade social corporativa, apresenta um panorama da atuação social empresarial no Brasil, analisa as formas e abordagens da avaliação de resultados de ações sociais e discute as tendências atuais de criação de empreendimentos que buscam a geração combinada de valor econômico e social. O trabalho de campo foi desenvolvido em duas etapas, sendo uma de caráter qualitativo, composta por dois estudos de caso e a outra de caráter quantitativo, realizada na forma de uma survey. Na primeira etapa foram estudados dois casos de empresas que desenvolvem negócios com comunidades de baixa renda na Amazônia, Região Norte do Brasil. Um dos casos se refere a uma empresa fabricante de cosméticos, que desenvolve sua principal linha de produtos utilizando, como principais insumos, ativos da biodiversidade brasileira e conta com cooperativas locais como seus principais fornecedores. O outro caso trata de uma empresa fabricante de papel e celulose que se associa a comunidades nativas e se torna membro de uma cooperativa para organizar a produção de uma de suas principais matérias-primas. A partir destas iniciativas empreendedoras e visionárias é possível demonstrar que a despeito dos riscos e das dificuldades inerentes ao pioneirismo, a conciliação de benefício social e vantagem competitiva é factível e viável. Na segunda etapa foi realizada uma survey junto a uma amostra intencional de 60 empresas, traçando um perfil se seu investimento social, de sua estratégia de atuação social, das práticas utilizadas de avaliação de resultados e das interfaces das ações sociais com o negócio. Entre os principais resultados obtidos pode-se destacar que empresas de porte pequeno e médio investem em ações sociais tanto quanto empresas de grande porte, e que empresas de capital aberto tendem a tratar a estratégia de atuação social com maior grau de formalização e planejamento que as empresas de capital fechado. A maioria das empresas investe em projetos sociais nas mesmas regiões onde desenvolve seus negócios e os principais públicos atendidos pelas ações sociais são crianças e adolescentes, através de ações predominantemente voltadas à educação. Entre as empresas com estratégia de atuação social mais madura foram detectados diversos pontos de interface e sinergia das ações com o negócio, demonstrando que a responsabilidade social é uma dimensão indissociável dos negócios. Espera-se com este trabalho explicitar o caráter estratégico da responsabilidade social corporativa e amadurecer a reflexão sobre as possibilidades de se planejar empreendimentos sustentáveis e competitivos que combinem geração de valor econômico e social. / The scope of this dissertation resides in analyzing the main concepts that define corporate social responsibility as well as reflecting on the role of enterprises in the community. Based on the definition of social action as part of a strategy of corporate social responsibility, some characteristics of these social actions have been researched, identifying the means through which their results are evaluated and verifying the feasibility of developing actions that will simultaneously produce social benefit and competitive advantage for the enterprises. The theoretical reference encompasses the theme of corporate social responsibility, presents an overview of social action on the part of Brazilian enterprises, analyzes the ways and approaches of social action result evaluation and discusses the current trends of creating entrepreneurships that seek at a combined generation of social and economic value. The field work has been developed in two stages, being one of qualitative characteristics, formed by two case studies, and another of quantitative feature, accomplished as a survey. During the first phase, two cases were prepared, approaching enterprises that do business with low-income communities in the Amazon, in the North of Brazil. One of them refers to a cosmetics manufacturer that enroots its core product line having assets from the Brazilian biodiversity as main inputs. Besides, it counts on local cooperatives as its leading suppliers. The other case overlooks a pulp and paper manufacturer that associates to native communities and becomes member of a cooperative in order to organize the production of one of its main raw materials. From these entrepreneurial and visionary initiatives, it is possible to demonstrate that in spite of the risks and difficulties inherent to pioneering, the conciliation of social benefit and competitive advantage is feasible and doable. During the second phase, a survey was accomplished considering a sample of 60 enterprises, sketching a profile of their social investment, their social action strategy, the practices adopted for evaluating results and the interfaces between social action and business. Among the main results obtained, one may highlight that small and medium-sized enterprises do invest in social action as much as the large ones; and that limited liability corporations tend to treat the social action strategy in a more formal and planned fashion than limited liability partnerships. Most enterprises invest in social projects located close to where they do business and the populations most commonly served by their social actions are formed by children and adolescents, through projects that prioritize education. Among the companies with more mature social action strategy, several points of interface and synergy have been detected between social action and business, emphasizing their amalgamation. With this here production, one expects to demonstrate the strategic feature of corporate social responsibility and to evolve in the reflection on the possibilities of planning sustainable and competitive entrepreneurships that overlap social and economic value generation.