The aim of the thesis is to explain main aspects of the development and elaboration of a real project of mountain apartments on the level of a feasibility study. The thesis is divided up into two parts. Theoretical part describes individual stages of the development, involved entities and the procedure of obtaining building permit, which is all necessary for the implementation of the project. The emphasis is laid on funding, namely financial resources and tax optimalization. The second part deals with the develoment project itsef, which is the construction of weekend apartments in the mountains. The project aims at finding the right use of a specific piece of land, the concept of construction and its funding. Further on the thesis contains sensibility analysis, market and competion analysis and SWOT analysis and identification of main risks including their solution and possible preventive measures. The final part of the thesis focuses on evaluation of this project and its comparison with several competitive projects.

[pt] A avaliação de projetos e sua viabilidade econômico-financeira tradicionalmente são calculadas utilizando o método consagrado do fluxo de caixa descontado. Entretanto, o fato de um projeto ser financeiramente viável não significa necessariamente que ele reflita a preferência dos stakeholders. Além disso, a metodologia do fluxo de caixa descontado não consegue avaliar de forma eficiente projetos que possuem aspectos qualitativos relevantes. Por isso, é necessária uma metodologia que seja capaz de captar esses aspectos, como a Análise Multicritério (AMC). Dessa forma, o trabalho tem como objetivo mostrar o processo de escolha e priorização de projetos por um Comitê de Investimentos hipotético em uma distribuidora de energia elétrica através da utilização de um método de analise multicritério, o MAPM (Mutiattribute Preference Model), e como esses aspectos quantitativos e qualitativos podem ser relevantes para tomada de decisão. Foram atribuídos pesos a objetivos (dois) e critérios (sete), para a geração da função utilidade de cada um dos tomadores de decisão e analisou-se o comportamento e a coerência das decisões produzidas pelo calculo dos scores de cada projeto, os quais apresentaram consistência. Adicionalmente, foi realizada comparação dos resultados obtidos com aqueles gerados através da utilização de outro método de analise multicritério, o AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), e observou-se similaridade nos mesmos. Esses resultados, especialmente quando aplicados num contexto real de decisão numa distribuidora de energia elétrica, demonstra que a análise multicritério pode ser uma ferramenta relevante de avaliação e priorização de projetos. / [en] The evaluation of a project and its economic and financial viability are frequently calculated using the discounted cash flow method. However, the fact that a project is financially feasible doesn´t necessarily means that it reflects the preferences of the stakeholders. Besides this, the discounted cash flow method isn´t capable of valuing projects with relevant qualitative aspects. In order to try to capture these significant aspects, an appraisal methodology such as Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is required. This article describes a project selection process made by an Investment Committee (IC)in a power utility firm using a multi-criteria analysis method, the MAPM (Mutiattribute Preference Model), and how these quantitative and qualitative criteria can play a relevant role for the project selection decision. We study the decision process by first asking the IC members to attribute weights for both objectives (two) and criteria (seven), in order to access the utility function of each IC member and then analyzing the behavior and consistency of the decisions produced through calculation of the score of each project. Results indicate that there is consistency between the strategy defined by the firm and the project selection process. Additionally, the results obtained with the MAPM approach were compared with these obtained using another MCA methodology: the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), which yields similar results. The results also show that the application of multi-criteria analysis in a real context of a power utility firm can play a relevant role on capital investment valuation and decision tacking process.

When City of Stockholm wanted to build apartments on land used and controlled by Ports of Stockholm a project was initiated with the purpose of accommodating this request. The project meant that one of the piers at the Värta Port was expanded and the ITS system was implemented at said pier. Since the project was initiated from, what was considered, necessity an extensive evaluation of the economic and strategic consequences was not preformed. This thesis discusses and evaluates the strategical aspects of the ITS implementation at the Värta Port. The strategical benefits of the ITS system is that it enhances the competitive advantage, the location, of Ports of Stockholm through giving them more control over the port since the infrastructure was previously owned by their customer, Tallink Silja. Furthermore, the system creates a safer work environment at the port through better controlled container and truck management and preplanned emergency scenarios.  The system also removes wastes in the logistical process in the port through the added control of entries and exits and a fully digital sorting and storing system. This can provide operational cost reductions to Tallink Silja who is responsible for the operation of the port. Additionally, the system provides added value for the end customer as the reliability of the shipments increase. If these benefits are enough to justify the ITS system cannot be determined in this thesis as it is only the management at Ports of Stockholm that possesses the implicit knowledge required, but there exist substantial strategical benefits to the ITS system. / När Stockholms Stad ville bygga lägenheter på mark som användes och ägdes av Stockholms Hamnar initierades ett projekt med avsikt att förfylla denna begäran. Projektet betydde en utbyggnad av ena kajen I Värtahamnen och ITS systemets implementation vid sagd kaj. Då projektet var initierat, av, vad som ansågs vara, nödvändighet utfördes ej en ordentlig bedömning av de strategiska och ekonomiska konsekvenserna. Denna uppsats diskuterar och bedömer de strategiska aspekterna av ITS systemet.  De strategiska fördelarna av ITS systemet är att det bidrar till Stockholms Hamnars Konkurrensfördel, dess placering, genom att ge dem mer kontroll över hamnen eftersom infrastrukturen tidigare ägdes av deras kund, Tallink Silja. Utöver detta skapar systemet en säkrare arbetsmiljö i hamnen då systemet har bättre kontroll över containrarna och lastbilarna i hamnen samt har inprogrammerade utrymnings scenarier. ITS systemet minskar även på ”waste” i det logistiska processerna i hamnen genom adderad kontroll över in och utfarterna till hamnen samt ett digitalt sorterings och förvarningssystem. Detta erbjuder reduktioner i operativa kostnader för Tallink Silja, vilka är ansvariga för driften av kajen. Utöver detta erbjuder systemet ökat värde för slutkunden då verksamhetens reliabilitet ökar. Om dessa fördelar är tillräckliga för att justifiera ITS projectet kan inte beslutas i denna rapport då det endast är ledningen hos Stockholms Hamnar som sitter på kunskaper tillräckliga för att ta detta beslut. Men det finns bra strategiska fördelar med ITS systemet.

La actual pesquisa pretende decretar la viabilidad comercial, técnica, económica y social de la instalación de una planta productora de harina de loche, empleando los instrumentos y los discernimientos asimilados en el transcurso de la carrera de ingeniería industrial. El mercado objetivo está compuesto por las zonas urbanas de los distritos de Chiclayo, Lambayeque y Ferreñafe, asimismo, por personas de ambos sexos con edad entre 18 a más. Respecto al estudio, se programa expender para el 2027 una cuantía de 11,079 bolsas de harina de loche a S/. 11.00 por paquete de 200g para tiendas de conveniencia y supermercados. El producto será mercantilizado en cajas de 25 bolsas cada una. La planta quedará situada en el departamento de Lambayeque, distrito de Lambayeque, en un área de 449,07 m2 con una cabida de producción de 960,000 kg/h. El área de producción laborará con 01 turno diario con un total de 14 operarios a lo largo de toda la vida del proyecto (5 años). La inversión total del proyecto es de S/1 514 686,49 y respecto a los criterios de inversión, el proyecto forja un VANE de S/. 241 155,63, la TIRE de 60%, la TMAR 17,46%, el COK del 16,56%, le PR se dará en 2,35 años y el B/C de 1,73; así mismo se determinó el WACC del 13.73%, el VANF de S/. 2 052 291,23, el TIRF del 54%, el B/C del 2,35 y el PR se dará en 1,93 años; Estos resultados exteriorizan que el proyecto será viable-rentable. / The current research aims to determine the commercial, technical, economic and social viability of the installation of a loche flour production plant, using the instruments and insights assimilated during the course of the industrial engineering degree. The target market is made up of the urban areas of the districts of Chiclayo, Lambayeque and Ferreñafe, as well as people of both sexes aged between 18 and over. Regarding the study, it is planned to sell by 2027 an amount of 11,079 bags of loche flour at S/. 11.00 per 200g package for convenience stores and supermarkets. The product will be marketed in boxes of 25 bags each. The plant will be located in the department of Lambayeque, district of Lambayeque, in an area of 449.07 m2 with a production capacity of 960,000 kg/h. The production area will work with 01 daily shift with a total of 14 operators throughout the life of the project (5 years). The total investment of the project is S/1,514,686.49 and with respect to the investment criteria, the project forges an NPV of S/. 241 155.63, the ERR of 60%, the MARR 17.46%, the COK of 16.56%, the PR will be given in 2.35 years and the B/C of 1.73; Likewise, the WACC of 13.73%, the VANF of S/. 2,052,291.23, the TIRF of 54%, the B/C of 2.35 and the PR will be given in 1.93 years; These results show that the project will be viable-profitable.

Transport infrastructure investment decision making is typically based on a range of inputs such as social, environmental and economic factors. The benefit cost ratio (BCR), a measure of economic efficiency (“value for money”) determined through cost benefit analysis (CBA), is dependent on accurate estimates of the various option costs and net social benefits such as reductions in travel time, accidents, and vehicle operating costs. However, most evaluations are deterministic procedures using point estimates for the inputs and producing point estimates for the outputs. Transport planners have primarily focused on the cost risks and treat risk through sensitivity testing. Probabilistic risk analysis techniques are available which could provide more information about the statistical confidence of the economic evaluation outputs. This research project report investigated how risk and uncertainty are dealt with in the literature and guidelines. The treatment of uncertainty in the Nelson Arterial Traffic Study (ATS) was reviewed and an opportunity to apply risk analysis to develop probabilities of sea level rise impacting on the coastal road options was identified. A simplified transport model and economic evaluation case study based on the ATS was developed in Excel to enable the application of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software. The simplifications mean that the results are not comparable with the ATS. Seven input variables and their likely distributions were defined for simulation based on the literature review. The simulation of seven variables, five worksheets, and 10,000 iterations takes about 30 seconds of computation time. The input variables in rank order of influence on the BCR were capital cost, car mode share, unit vehicle operating cost, basic employment forecast growth rate, and unit value of time cost. The deterministically derived BCR of 0.75 is associated with a 50% chance that the BCR will be less than 0.6, although this probability is partly based on some statistical parameters without an empirical basis. In practice, probability distribution fitting to appropriate datasets should be undertaken to better support probabilistic risk analysis conclusions. Probabilities for different confidence levels can be reported to suit the risk tolerance of the decision makers. It was determined that the risk analysis approach is feasible and can produce useful outputs, given a clear understanding of the data inputs and their associated distributions.

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a theory that helps explain the conditions under which firms select certain project evaluation techniques. This study uses contingency theory to analyze the impact of environmental uncertainty on the choice of project evaluation techniques. In addition to a direct measure of uncertainty, several dimensions of uncertainty are included in this study. These dimensions of uncertainty include control structure, method of financing, foreign assets, method of growth, and product domination. This study also analyzes the use of project evaluation, management science and risk management techniques in US firms over time and in UK firms over time in order to compare to prior research. A comparison of firms in the two countries are also provided. The primary method of data collection was a survey instrument. Data were also collected from annual reports and various other public sources. The variables that appear significant in the choice of project evaluation technique in US firms are environmental uncertainty, control structure, method of financing, foreign assets, and product domination. The variable that appear significant in the choice of project evaluation technique in UK firms is method of financing. US firms favor discounted cash flow techniques although this study detected a slight decrease over time. UK firms continue to use non-discounted cash flow techniques, although the use of discounted cash flow techniques is widespread. There are significant differences between US and UK firms. US firms tend to use discounted cash flow techniques to a greater extent than UK firms. This research makes a significant contribution in attempting to develop a theory explaining the use of project evaluation techniques in firms in the US and UK. In addition, several other developments relating to project evaluation, management science and risk management are discussed. The results of this study can be used by managers in refining and improving their existing project evaluation processes.

[pt] A recente entrada em vigor do Protocolo de Quioto e as pesadas multas impostas às empresas européias que não conseguirem reduzir as suas emissões de CO2, fazem do mercado de carbono uma realidade na América Latina. O Brasil se destaca como um dos países de maior potencial para exportar créditos de carbono no mundo, em grande parte, devido ao seu potencial para produzir energia elétrica a partir de fontes renováveis. Entretanto, a real atratividade desse negócio ainda é desconhecida no âmbito do setor elétrico brasileiro, tanto pela dificuldade encontrada para se estimar a sua produção efetiva de créditos de carbono, quanto pelo não reconhecimento das flexibilidades gerenciais embutidas neste mercado. Neste contexto, o objetivo principal deste trabalho é desenvolver um arcabouço metodológico capaz de determinar o valor incremental do mercado de carbono nos projetos de geração de energia elétrica em sistemas hidrotérmicos interligados, tal como o sistema brasileiro. Para tanto as metodologias ACM0002 [1] e AMS-I.D [2], ambas aprovadas pelo Comitê Executivo do Protocolo de Quioto, serão empregadas no cálculo da linha de base desses projetos. Além disso, uma vez que o preço do crédito de carbono pode ser considerado uma variável aleatória, a Teoria das Opções Reais será utilizada para avaliar as flexibilidades gerenciais embutidas no negócio. A opção considerada é avaliada pelos métodos Binomial, dos Mínimos Quadrados, e de Grant, Vora & Weeks. Os processos estocásticos Geométrico Browniano e de Difusão com Saltos são utilizados para modelar o preço do crédito de carbono. / [en] The recent ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the heavy penalties imposed on the European firms not reducing their Greenhouse Gas emissions, make the Carbon Market a real asset for Latin America. In this context, Brazil appears as one of the biggest producers of Certified Emissions Reductions, mostly because of its potential to generate electricity power from renewable sources. Unfortunately, the real attractivity of this business is still unknown in the Brazilian Electric Sector, mainly because of the difficulties in estimating the future production level of the emission reductions and because of the existence of some managerial flexibilities that usually are note recognized in this market. In this context, the main objective of this work is to develop a methodology to evaluate the incremental payoff of the carbon market on electricity generation projects of interconnected hydrothermal systems, such as the Brazilian System. The methodologies ACM0002 [1] and AMS-I.D [2], both approved by the Kyoto Protocol Executive Board, will be used to determine the baseline of these projects. Besides that, considering that the carbon price is a random variable, the Real Option Approach will be used to evaluate the embedded managerial flexibilities on this business. The considered real option may be evaluate by using the binomial tree, least square Monte Carlo and the Grant, Vora & Weeks methods. Both the Geometric Brownian Motion and the Jump Diffusion processes will be used to model the price of the emission reductions.

[pt] Ao tomar suas decisões, o gerente se vê frente a frente com diferentes tipos de incertezas, entre elas, o tempo para se concluir um projeto. As características de inovação e ineditismo dos projetos de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento aplicados à tecnologia reforçam ainda mais os cuidados a serem tomados com a dimensão tempo no momento da decisão, pois a penalidade pode ser até mesmo a perda de uma oportunidade valiosa de negócio. Para quantificar o impacto do esforço aplicado em um Projeto de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Tecnológico no valor de um empreendimento, conduzido em um contexto onde o tempo é representado por uma variável aleatória, desenvolvemos o modelo que apresentamos neste trabalho. Para tanto utilizamos a Teoria das Opções Reais, considerando que o projeto se desenvolve seqüencialmente e que pode ser abandonado em qualquer estágio de desenvolvimento. O modelo utiliza uma treliça para captar a incerteza técnica própria do desenvolvimento do desempenho da tecnologia e considera como variável aleatória o tempo de conclusão de cada uma das fases do projeto. O valor esperado do projeto, com a flexibilidade propiciada pela opção de abandono embutida no projeto de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento, é calculado combinando a Simulação de Monte Carlo e a técnica da Programação Dinâmica. Aplicamos o modelo para tratar o caso de uma planta Gas-to-liquid (GTL). A função payoff do projeto de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento foi construída a partir de diversas contribuições geradas no bojo de um convênio firmado entre o Departamento de Engenharia Industrial da PUC-RJ e a Petrobras S.A., com o objetivo de avaliar economicamente uma planta GTL. / [en] When making decisions, the figure of the manager comes across different types of uncertainties. Among them, the time to conclude a project. The characteristics of innovation and novelty in Research and Development Projects applied to technology, further reinforces the caution to be taken regarding the time dimension at the moment of the decision, since the penalty could culminate in the loss of a valuable business opportunity. In order to quantify the impact of the effort applied in a Research and Technological Development Project, in the value of an entrepreneurship conducted according to a context in which time is represented by a random variable, this study presents a pertinent model. Considering that a project sequentially evolves and can be abandoned during any stage of its development, the Theory of Real Options was the chosen theoretical framework. The model utilizes a lattice to capture the technical uncertainty, characteristics of the development of technology performance, and takes in account as a random variable the time of the conclusion of each stage of the project. The expected value of the project with the flexibility provided by the option to abandonment built in the Research and Development Project, is calculated through a combination of the Monte Carlo Simulation and the technique of Dynamic Programming. The proposed model was applied in the case of a Gas-to-liquid (GTL) plant. The payoff function of the Research and Development Project was built through several contributions stemmed from an agreement between the Industrial Engineering Department of PUC-RJ and Petrobras S.A., in order to assess the economic value of a GTL plant

O gerenciamento de projetos tem sido cada vez mais estudado, e diferentes abordagens podem ser encontradas na bibliografia gerada pela academia e por praticantes da área, sendo considerado um aspecto estratégico para companhias de sucesso. Por isso, nos últimos anos, muitas empresas têm despendido grandes montas em gerenciamento de projetos, alimentando a controversa discussão sobre os resultados da aplicação de tais métodos em relação ao retorno dos investimentos. Esta tese tem como objetivo analisar os benefícios gerados pelo uso destes métodos de gestão de projetos para as organizações. A abordagem metodológica baseia-se em uma modelagem quantitativa, na qual se busca relacionar o grau de implementação dos métodos de gerenciamento de projetos ao sucesso dos projetos. A pesquisa empírica foi realizada em uma empresa multinacional de grande porte, com atuação diversificada, presente em vários setores industriais. Participaram do estudo dez unidades de negócio, de três países, de dez setores industriais: componentes, energia, indústria, manutenção, medicina, óleo e gás, segurança, tecnologia da informação, telecomunicações e transportes. Apesar de todas as unidades de negócio adotar o mesmo conjunto de métodos de gerenciamento de projetos corporativo, elas apresentam graus de implementação distintos. A base de dados foi coletada ao longo de dois anos e é composta de 1.387 projetos. Os resultados da pesquisa apontam para uma influência positiva no sucesso do projeto, medido pelo cumprimento do prazo e do custo do mesmo, em decorrência do maior grau de utilização de métodos em gerenciamento de projetos e do maior esforço em treinamento de gestores. Por outro lado, verifica-se que quanto mais complexo o projeto, maior a dificuldade em se obter os resultados planejados. Conclui-se que o uso de métodos tem impacto estatisticamente positivo no resultado operacional dos projetos, medido através do cumprimento de orçamento e prazo dos projetos, bem como o esforço em treinamento e capacitação em gerenciamento de projetos tem impacto positivo no resultado operacional dos mesmos. Adicionalmente a complexidade do projeto tem impacto positivo no resultado operacional do mesmo. / Project management has been more studied and different approaches can be found in the literature generated by the researches and by practioners. This subject has been considered a strategic aspect for successful companies. That is the reason for, in the past years, lots of companies have been investing a huge amount of money in project management, feeding the controversial discussion about the results with the application of these methods in relation to the return of investments. This thesis has the objective to analyze the benefits generated by the use of these methods for the organizations. The methodological approach is based on a quantitative model in which the intention is to relate the implementation level of methods and training in project management to the success of the projects. The empirical research was conducted in a large multinational company, with diversified participation in the market, making business in many industrial sectors. Ten different business units took part in this study, from three countries and ten industrial sectors: components, energy, industry, maintenance, medicine, oil and gas, security, information technology, telecommunications and transportation. Although all the business units adopt the same package of corporate project management methods, they present different levels of implementation. The database was collected in a timeframe of two years and is composed by 1387 projects. The research results point out a positive influence in project success measured by the accomplishment of project time and cost, mainly because of the higher utilization level of the project management methods and the higher effort in project management training. In other direction, it was verified that the more complex the project, more difficult is to obtain the planned results. The use of methods has a statistical positive impact in the operational results of projects, measured through the fulfillment of projects budget and time, as the effort in project management training has a statistical positive impact in the operational results of them. Additionally the project complexity has a positive impact in the operational results of it.

[pt] Assegurar a qualidade de uma avaliação é um grande desafio para os avaliadores. A avaliação de um processo avaliativo denomina-se meta-avaliação. No Brasil já existe uma grande preocupação com a qualidade da avaliação, contudo o conceito de meta-avaliação ainda é uma novidade. Os profissionais discutem quais são os critérios de excelência que uma verdadeira avaliação deve atender tendo como base os padrões definidos pelo Joint Committee on Standards for Educational Evaluation (1994), que estão agrupados em quatro grandes categorias: utilidade, viabilidade, ética e precisão. Este trabalho propõe uma nova metodologia para meta-avaliação utilizando os conceitos de conjuntos fuzzy e da lógica fuzzy. A metodologia é composta por um instrumental de coleta de dados (lista de checagem para meta-avaliação de programas/projetos) e por um sistema de inferência fuzzy hierárquico para o tratamento de dados referentes à metaavaliação de programas/projetos. As principais vantagens de um sistema desse tipo são: (i) a possibilidade de trabalhar com regras lingüísticas; (ii) a utilização de ferramentas adequadas para trabalhar com a imprecisão intrínseca que existe em problemas complexos, como é o caso de processos de meta- avaliação; (iii) a incorporação de conhecimento subjetivo (de especialistas); (iv) a adaptabilidade do processo de inferência a situações específicas. A metodologia ora proposta utiliza um sistema hierárquico composto por trinta e seis bases de regras organizadas em três níveis: padrão (nível 1), categoria (nível 2), e meta-avaliação (nível 3). As principais características da metodologia desenvolvida são: (i) o instrumento de coleta de dados, que permite respostas intermediárias; (ii) a capacidade de adaptação do sistema de inferência fuzzy a necessidades específicas; (iii) a transparência obtida pela utilização de regras lingüísticas, o que facilita a discussão e o entendimento de todo o processo. Acredita-se que esta metodologia facilitará os processos de meta-avaliação. Este estudo pretende ser uma contribuição para a área da avaliação e para a prática da meta-avaliação. / [en] Assuring the quality of an evaluation is a great challenge to evaluators. The evaluation of an evaluative process is called meta- evaluation. In Brazil there is a great concern about evaluation quality, although the concept of metaevaluation is new. Evaluation professionals are still discussing the criteria of excellence that a true evaluation should attend. The standards defined by the Joint Committee on Standards for Educational Evaluation (1994) that are presented in terms of utility, feasibility, ethics and accuracy, enlighten on that discussion. This study presents a new methodology for meta-evaluation that makes use of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic concepts. The methodology is composed of an instrument for data collection (checklist for the meta-evaluation of programs/projects) and of a hierarchical fuzzy inference system for treatment of data related to the metaevaluation of projects and programs. The main advantages of using such a system are: (i) the possibility of working with linguistic rules; (ii) the use of tools that deal with the intrinsic imprecision of complex problems, as is the case of metaevaluation; (iii) the incorporation of subjective knowledge (of specialists); (iv) the adaptability of the inference process to specific situations. This new methodology makes use of a system composed of 36 rule bases organized in three levels: standard (level 1), category (level 2), and meta- evaluation (level 3). The main features of the proposed methodology are: (i) the data collection instrument, that allows intermediate answers; (ii) the fuzzy system's capability of adaptation to specific needs; (iii) the transparency provided by the use of linguistic rules, which favours understanding and discussion of the whole process. It is believed that this methodology will make the meta-evaluation process easier. This study intends to be a contribution to evaluation as a subject and to meta- evaluation practice.