Stochastic solvency testing methods have existed for more than 20 years, yet there has been little research conducted in this area, particularly in Australia. This is for a number of reasons, the most pertinent of which being the lack of computing capabilities available in the past to implement more sophisticated techniques. However, recent advances in computing have made stochastic solvency testing possible in practice and have resulted in a trend towards this being done in advanced studies. ¶ The purpose of this thesis is to develop a realistic solvency testing model in a form that can be implemented by Australian Life Insurers, in anticipation that the Australian insurance regulator, APRA, will ultimately follow the world trend and require stochastic solvency testing to be carried out in Australia. The model is constructed from three interconnected stochastic sub-models used to describe the economic environment and the mortality and lapsation experience of the portfolio of policies under consideration. Australian economic and Life Insurance data is used to fit a number of possible sub-models, such as generalised linear models, over-dispersion models and asset models, and the ``best'' model is selected in each case. The selected models are a modified CAS/SOA economic sub-model; either a Poisson or negative binomial (NB1) distribution (depending on the policy type considered) as the mortality sub-model; and a normal-Poisson lapsation sub-model. ¶ Based on tests carried out using this model, it is demonstrated that, for portfolios of level and yearly-renewable term insurance business, the current deterministic solvency capital requirements provide little protection against insolvency. In fact, for the test portfolios of term insurance policies considered, the deterministic capital requirements have levels of sufficiency of less than 2% (on a Value at Risk basis) when compared to the change in capital distribution over a three year time horizon. This is of concern, as yearly-renewable term insurance comprises a significant volume of Life Insurance business in Australia, with there being over 426,000 yearly-renewable term insurance policies on the books of Australian Life Insurers in 1999 and more business expected since then. ¶ A sensitivity analysis shows that the results of the stochastic asset requirement calculations are sensitive to the choice of sub-model used to forecast economic variables and to the choice of formulae used to describe the mean mortality and lapsation rates. The implication of this is that, if APRA were to require Life Insurers to calculate their solvency capital requirements on a stochastic basis, some guidance would need to be provided regarding the components of the solvency testing model used. The model is not, however, sensitive to whether an allowance is made for mortality or lapsation rate over-dispersion, nor to whether dependency relationships between mortality rates, lapsation rates and the economy are allowed for. Thus, over-dispersion and dependency relationships between the sub-models can be ignored in a stochastic solvency testing model without significantly impacting the calculated solvency requirements.

No description available.

No description available.

Zugl.: München, Univ., Diss., 2009, u.d.T.: Rittmann, Marion : Neuausrichtung der Versicherungsaufsicht (Solvency II)

Insurance companies offer business and individuals the possibility to reduce the financial impact of a risk occurring by transferring it away from themselves onto someone. For taking on risk on behalf of someone else the insurance company requires a premium from the policyholder which is pooled and invested in order to meet future obligations towards the policyholder. However, the importance of the European insurance industry goes beyond economic protection of the policyholder as the industry with its EUR8.4 trillion or 58 percent of EU GDP in assets is the largest institutional investor in Europe. As the financial system has undergone dramatic transformation over time, so have the role and function of intermediaries changed. While traditional tasks like reducing transaction costs and asymmetric information became less relevant, facilitating of risk transfer and dealing with the increasing breadth and depth of financial markets are gaining more and more importance. While insurers have been able to hold illiquid asset to a larger extent arguments from the industry are made that the planned introduction of Solvency II will limit insurers and overlook their investment abilities, which is something that can affect the region’s economic development. The above mention aspect combined with the limited research that has been conducted on insurers’ asset allocation and the performance of it resulted in the following research question: Does asset allocation impact insurance company's performance? The question focuses on insurers within the European Union (EU) which is enlarged by the European Economic Area (EEA) and Switzerland, where performance is measured as the return on investment (ROI). To answer the research question in the best possible way, relevant theories such as Modern Portfolio Theory or Efficient Market Hypothesis are presented and discussed as well as previous research on asset allocation. Earlier studies about asset allocation policy and its power to explain the investment return came to different conclusions which can be due to variation in the interpretation of the findings or difficulties by distinguishing between asset allocation policy and active asset allocation. Census is used to investigate in the topic as the population of listed insurance companies within the selected region was rather small which finally came down to 42 firms due to the timeframe of 11 years. Data regarding insurer’s asset class weights in debt securities, equity, real estate, derivatives, cash and equivalent, loans and receivables and the category of others were collected. The return on investment was also collected for each year of the time period and for each insurance company. Benchmarks were constructed in order to replicate what the return of a passive investment of the same proportion would have yielded. The result was inconclusive as it was not possible to determine if asset allocation policy or active management have the greatest impact on the return on investment. This is contradicting previous research of asset allocation and performance as researchers have found that asset allocation policy explains most or all of the return.

This dissertation thesis address how aggregate shocks affect insurance firms' risk management and asset investment decisions as well as the impact of these decisions on insurance prices and regulation. The first chapter develops a signaling model to examine how insurance firms choose among retention, reinsurance and securitization especially for catastrophe risks. The second chapter examines the determination of insurance prices in an integrated equilibrium framework where insurers' assets may be subject to both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. The third chapter presents an empirical analysis of the hypothesized impacts of internal capital and asset risk on insurance prices as predicted by the results of the second chapter. The last chapter investigates the optimal design of insurance regulation to achieve the Pareto optimal asset and liquidity management by insurers as well as risk sharing between insurers and insurees. Chapter 1 provides a novel explanation for the predominance of retention and reinsurance relative to securitization in catastrophe risk transfer using a signaling model. An insurer's risk transfer choice trades off the lower signaling costs of reinsurance against the additional costs of reinsurance stemming from sources such as their market power, higher cost of capital relative to capital markets, and compensation for their monitoring costs. In equilibrium, the lowest risk insurers choose reinsurance, while intermediate and high risk insurance choose partial and full securitization, respectively. An increase in the loss size increases the average risk of insurers who choose securitization. Consequently, catastrophe risks, which are characterized by low frequency-high severity losses, are only securitized by very high risk insurers. Chapter 2 develops a unified equilibrium model of competitive insurance markets where insurers' assets may be exposed to idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. We endogenize the relationship between insurance prices and insurers internal capital that potentially reconcile the conflicting predictions of previous theories that investigate the relation using partial equilibrium frameworks. Equilibrium effects lead to a non-monotonic U-shaped relation between insurance price and internal capital. Specifically, the equilibrium insurance price first decreases with a positive shock to the internal capital when it is below certain threshold level, and then increases with a positive shock the internal capital when it is above the threshold level. Further, we also derive another testable implication that an increase in the asset default risk increases the insurance price and decrease the insurance coverage. Chapter 3 studies the property and casualty insurance industry in periods from 1992 to 2012 based on the aggregate level of NAIC data. We show that the insurance price decreases with an increase in the surplus of insurance firms at the end of the previous year when the surplus is lower than 8.5 billion, and then increase when the surplus is higher than 8.5 billion. Our results provide support for the hypothesis of a U-shaped relationship between internal capital and insurance price. Our results also provide evidence for the positive relationship between asset portfolio risk and insurance price. Chapter 4 studies the effects of aggregate risk on the Pareto optimal asset and liquidity management by insurers as well as risk-sharing between insurers and insurers. When aggregate risk is low, both insurers and insurers hold no liquidity reserves, insurees are fully insured, and insurers bear all aggregate risk. When aggregate risk takes intermediate values, both insurees and insurers still hold no liquidity reserves, but insurers partially share aggregate risk with insurers. When aggregate risk is high, however, it is optimal to hold nonzero liquidity reserves, and insurees partially share aggregate risk with insurers. The efficient asset and liquidity management policies as well as the aggregate risk allocation can be implemented through a regulatory intervention policy that combines a minimum liquidity requirement when aggregate risk is high, "ex post" contingent on the aggregate state, comprehensive insurance policies, and reinsurance.

Bakgrund: Den privata vårdsektorn är en sektor som karaktäriseras av stark tillväxt. Behovet av vård kommer alltid att finnas och i takt med att människan lever längre ökar även trycket på vården. Den privata vårdsektorn har skapat en debatt i samhället där man ifrågasätter att offentliga medel går till vinster i privata vårdföretag. Därav är det av allmänt intresse att analysera vårdföretagens ekonomiska utveckling och risk. Syfte: Att utreda vilka finansiella strategier privata vårdföretag tillämpar och om de byggt upp tillräcklig finansiell styrka (kapitalstruktur) för en långsiktig utveckling. Metod: Uppsatsen bygger på en kvantitativ metod där information baseras på årsredovisningar under en 10-årsperiod. Utifrån den finansiella informationen beräknas nyckeltal för att beskriva företagens kapitalstruktur och prestation. Därefter görs en ingående analys av resultat- och balansräkning för respektive företag. Uppsatsen använder sig av hävstångsformeln som huvudsakligt analysverktyg för att analysera om företagen vinstmaximerar eller om de har en mer långsiktig finansiell strategi för att uppnå finansiell styrka. Resultat, slutsatser: Genom vår analys av vårdföretagens rörelserisk har utredningen funnit att en rimlig balans mellan rörelserisk och finansiella styrka uppnås vid en soliditet på 40 % som är genomsnittet för bolag på Stockholmsbörsen. De små vårdbolagen (som är den dominerande företagsformen) uppnår mer än väl balans mellan rörelserisk och finansiell styrka. Deras soliditet uppgår i regel till ca 50 %. Företagen har hög lönsamhet och som finansiell strategi väljer de att inte vinstmaximera genom att belåna sig och utnyttja hävstångseffekten. Tre av de marknadsledande företagen har en dålig lönsamhet och en soliditet som är betydligt lägre än börsgenomsnittet. Den låga soliditeten kompenseras helt eller delvis av att företagen har starka ägare med möjlighet att tillföra kapital via aktieägartillskott och nyemissioner vid behov. Den fjärde av de marknadsledande större vårdföretagen har hög lönsamhet och högre soliditet än börsgenomsnittet. Även detta företag väljer att liksom de mindre vårdföretagen att inte belåna sig och utnyttja hävstångseffekten för att maximera vinster. / Background: The private health sector is a sector that is characterized by growth. The need for care will always be, and as the human lives longer it will also increase the pressure on health care. The private health sector has created a debate in the community in which the dividends allocation is being questioned. Hence, it is of general interest to analyze healthcare companies' financial performance and risk. Purpose: To investigate the financial strategies that private health care companies apply and if they have built up sufficient financial strength (capital structure) for long term development. Methodology: The essay is based on a quantitative method where information is based on annual reports over a 10-year period. Based on the financial information financial ratios are calculated to describe firms' capital structure and performance. Thereafter, a detailed analysis of the income statement and balance sheet is made for each company. The essay uses effects of leverage as the main analytical tool for analyzing how firms maximize profits or if they have a more long-term financial strategy. Conclusion: Through our analysis of healthcare companies operating risk, the investigation found that a reasonable balance between business risk and financial strength is achieved at an equity ratio of 40 % which is an average for companies on the Stockholm stock exchange. The small healthcare company (which is the dominant company form) achieve a balance between business risk and financial strength. Their equity ratio is usually around 50 %. Companies have high profitability and as financial strategy they choose not to maximize profits by leveraging themselves and use the effects of leverage. Three of the market leaders have a poor performance and a solvency that is significantly lower than the market average. Their strong owners compensate the low equity ratio with the ability to provide capital through shareholder contributions and new issues as necessary. The fourth of the leading major healthcare companies have high profitability and higher solvency than the market average. This company also chooses to, like the smaller healthcare companies not to use leverage and use the effect of leverage to maximize their profit.

Zugl.: Hannover, Univ., Diss. 2009

Bakgrund: Operativ risk är ett begrepp som har tilltagit i betydelse genom uppdagandet av skandaler och konkurser inom den finansiella sektorn. Varje svenskt försäkringsföretag är skyldigt att hantera operativa risker, men eftersom det är omöjligt att normalisera dess innebörd, åligger det företagen själva att avgöra dess omfång. Många ansträngningar har gjorts vad gäller att rama in och beskriva denna kategori för ”allmän rädsla”, en uppgift som fortsatt lider av brist på konsensus. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att fördjupa kunskapen om den operativa risken, sett ur de svenska försäkringsföretagens perspektiv, och sättet till vilket ett givet förhållningssätt inverkar på riskhanteringsprocessen. Metod: Studien har genomförts i två steg. Den första delen har utgjorts av en dokumentstudie, vilken sedermera har fördjupats genom två fallstudier. Slutsats: Studien visar att det finns en mängd tolkningar av operativ risk, vilka sträcker sig från väldigt enklar till väldigt komplexa. Studien visar också att vissa företag inte hanterar sina risker med utgångspunkt i konceptet ”operativ risk”, utan antar en mer pragmatisk inställning till verksamheternas risker. Detta innebär att det finns ett gap förhållande till god praxis kring hanteringen av operativ risk, vilket kompenseras för genom en ökad verksamhetsförståelse och tillämpningen av metoder som inte nödvändigtvis associeras med riskhantering. / Background: Operational risk is a notion that has gained a lot of notoriety due to a number of scandals and bankruptcies within the financial sector. Every Swedish insurance company is obliged to manage its operational risks, and due to the impossibility of normalizing its specific content, it is up to the companies themselves to judge its extent. Many efforts have been made to conceptualize and explain this “fear category”, an effort that in many respects still lacks in consensus. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge of what constitutes operational risk, from the perspective of Swedish insurance companies, and the way in which a particular view affects the risk management process.  Methods: This study has been conducted in two parts. The first part constitutes a cross-sectional study, which has further been expanded on by conducting a multiple case study, encompassing two insurance companies. Conclusion: This study shows that there are many interpretations of operational risk, ranging from very simple to very complex. This study also shows that some companies do not manage risks based on the concepts of “operational risk”, but from a pragmatic approach towards the business, meaning that some of the foundational good practices are not applied. However, this is mitigated by an increased understanding of the business, as well as the application of methods not necessarily associated with risk management.

Magister Legum - LLM (Public Law and Jurisprudence) / Prior to 2010, as a result of a sluggish global economy, the amalgamation and merger procedure in South Africa was active although it was at an all-time low.1 However, in 2010, there was an increase in amalgamation and merger activity in South Africa which was more pronounced in cross-border deals in South Africa and general corporate restructurings.2 As a result of this, as well as the developed infrastructure that was placed in preparation for the FIFA 2010 World Cup, the country attracted more and more foreign markets to invest in South Africa which contributed to the increasing rate of amalgamations and mergers.3 Nevertheless, the global recession has also contributed to the increase in amalgamations and merger activity as many companies in South Africa have merged to buck the negative trend that most companies find themselves in, increase their revenue and work with each other to advance the position of the company on a par with those of its competitors. However, there are various other reasons as to why companies consolidate their assets and liabilities. Recently, Tiso Blackstar, a merged investment holding company, consolidated their assets, liabilities and skills between Blackstar Plc and Tiso Investment Holdings to expand its operations and to seek investment opportunities in Africa which is boasting with economic growth.4 The company was of the opinion that the merger would not only enhance its scale and profitability, but it would also put the group on a new growth path.5 There are many benefits in which companies may reap from amalgamations and mergers, but elucidating them is beyond the scope of this research.