第一章：緒論。說明本文主旨在建立三個成本一數量一利潤分析決策模型以供不確定 情況下達成三個組織目標－－利潤最大及兩種不同定義之期望損失最小的情況下達成 特定利潤－－之生產組合。 第二章：風險與抉擇，敘述不確性無所不在之特性及其對人的切身關係，以及風險承 擔的正面意義。 第三章：文獻探討：文獻探討，從傳統（靜態）之Ｃ－Ｖ－Ｐ分析決策模型之起源及 其缺點加以探討，其次再探討為改進傳統Ｃ－Ｖ－Ｐ決策模型而提出的各種模型。 第四章：不確定情況下各種組織目標與決策模型之建立。 第五章：按第四章所建立之模型分別舉例說明。 第六章：彙總、結論與進一步研究之建議。 本論文共一冊，六章、十六節，約七萬字。

近年來，大陸已經從一個強調經濟發展的國家蛻變為一個注重經濟發展但是也關注永續發展的國家。大陸從只願付出共同但有區別責任到積極做出空氣污染管制的大國，是否可以藉由不同於以往的模型來解釋？本論文主要運用路徑分析法的概念來闡述北京的空氣污染治理政策演進，藉由設定奧運和APEC北京為治理的「關鍵節點」，進一步闡述國家與地方環境政策的變化與演進。而中國政策決策制度的演進也是影響環境政策的輔助因素，因此第四章也特別說明中國大陸制定決策的模式演變。希望藉由不同的理論來解釋當前北京乃至中國的環境治理，並檢視當前環境治理的不足及說明未來可能的發展方向。 / In the past decade, countries and organizations around the globe have devoted themselves to brought out the important message of sustainable development. Climate change and environmental protection have been two of the core issues to be considered into state’s foreign policy. China has been facing the environmental issues in recent years. In this thesis, it argues that China’s awareness of sustainable development and environmental protection, especially on air pollution problem in Beijing, was gradually flourished as time went by. From ignoring environmental problem and devoting effort on one-sided economic development to positively face and try to solve the air pollution problem, China has gone through its decision-making and mindsets reform. Furthermore, this thesis suggests that the progress of it corresponds with a certainly path. Hence, path dependent analysis would be applied to test whether this kind of path fits air pollution control methods in China and possibly foresee the environmental future of Beijing to be a cleaner and healthier city.