本文主要探討企業博物館與企業社會責任相關性之研究。欲了解企業如何藉由企業博物館的成立達成企業的使命目標及發揮更多元的企業社會責任，研究內容包括企業博物館可實現的企業社會責任項目、發展現況、特色介紹、優劣勢以及企業博物館的未來展望與建議。本文對企業博物館的定義，廣義上指(1) 博物館為企業體或相關機構所成立(2) 博物館內主要包含企業的歷史、資料、文物、產品或經營者理念等與企業體相關之有形或無形的展示品(3) 為社會大眾自由參觀之公開場合。狹義的企業博物館限指非營利機構者，也是本文研究的主要對象。企業社會責任本文定義為：企業要做到利潤、回饋、教育、發展、能促使社會價值總體提升。在了解企業博物館及企業社會責任的內涵後，本文使用的研究方法有(1) 文獻分析法(2) 結構性訪談，除了對文獻做檢閱外，也針對國內七間企業博物館做實地訪查與訪談。本文從企業社會責任等相關文獻，整理出評估的指標，對企業博物館的企業社會責任項目內涵作詳細的分析外，也綜合專家訪談經驗提出研究發現與建議。 　　本文發現如下： (1) 企業博物館身負重要的社會教育責任、文化責任，應努力維護及發揚。 (2) 企業博物館在傳播產業知識上貢獻良多，但更應精益求精。 (3) 企業博物館為博物館經營注入新的企業精神及創新能力。 (4) 企業博物館可發展為企業的職場訓練所，培養員工對企業的認同感向心 力。 (5) 現行企業博物館在專業管理上仍然不足，未完全發揮博物館的基本功能。 (6) 企業博物館易受企業體的波動而面臨經營不穩的問題。 (7) 臺灣目前尚缺乏健全的企業博物館發展機制。 針對企業博物館營運參考與後續研究，本文建議： (1) 企業博物館應注重專業管理及博物館基本功能的發揮。 (2) 企業博物館應建立完善的經營機制，朝永續經營目標努力。 (3) 企業博物館可結合大學或其他學術機構來增進產業知識或博物館研究功 能。 (4) 政府應妥善立法，規劃企業博物館產業的相關法規及輔導其健全發展。

本文有別於傳統效率性的計算方式,改採用 Ito Regression 估計單一市場的效率程度。實證結果發現,在各個單一市場皆看到市場呈現無效率的狀態,因此再用 VAR 的架構檢驗多國市場間的效率程度,結論明顯指出組合市場比單一市場還來的有效率,但同時考慮多個市場的有效率性必須在嚴謹的挑選市場下才能達到效率市場的目標。

本文利用分量迴歸方法探討經濟成長和經濟波動間的關係，使用亞洲10個主要經濟體的實質GDP季資料來進行分析。從實證結果發現，大部分國家在大多數分量下產出波動對實質GDP成長率有正向影響，唯有在某些國家當經濟成長率低時產出波動對經濟成長會有負面影響。另外，進一步考慮了產出波動結構性改變因素之後，基本上仍然不會改變波動性對經濟成長率的影響，產出波動變數同樣在大多數國家的大部分分量對GDP成長率有顯著影響，其中高所得國家在高低分量皆為正相關；中低所得國家在低分量下為負相關，高分量下為正相關。此結果顯示，即使在同一個國家資料中，經濟波動的影響也會隨著經濟成長率的高低而有所不同；此外，因為不同國家有不同所得水準，所受到的正、反向影響也會不一樣。 / This thesis employs the quantile regression model to investigate the link between economic growth and its volatility, using quarterly real GDP data for ten main Asian economies. Our empirical results show that the output growth volatility positively affects real GDP growth rate at most quantiles for most nations. Only when some countries are at a period of low economic growth, does output volatility negatively affect economic growth. In addition, after considering possible structural breaks in the GDP growth volatility, the relation between volatility and output growth rate stays qualitatively the same. That is, the output volatility still has significant impact on real GDP growth rate at most quantiles for most nations. For high income countries, volatility and economic growth are positively correlated at higher and lower quantiles; while for low and middle income countries, these two factors are negatively correlated at lower quantiles, and positively correlated at higher quantiles. Our empirical evidence indicates that even in the same country, the impact of volatility varies according to the country’s economic growth rate. Besides, due to different income levels, the volatility impact on economic growth rate will differ in different countries.

本篇論文在結構性時間序列模型基礎下，將中國大陸29省市自治區1978-2005年實質人均GDP，拆解出其長期趨勢變動軌跡中的水準值與斜率值，對照傳統上直接利用實質所得數據，以動態縱橫資料方法進行經濟成長條件收斂假說的檢定。本文特色在於加入潛在GDP長期趨勢項的水準值和斜率值，並利用內生解釋變數落後項動態分析。除可驗證隨著時間經過，中國相對貧窮省區是否終將逐漸趕上相對富有省份所得水準外，其次，根據GDP趨勢項一階與二階條件的收斂與否，可進而確認實質GDP收斂的本質。 我們發現，實質人均GDP收斂的本質關鍵在於潛在趨勢水準收斂，潛在GDP趨勢斜率的成長率將左右區域間實質所得收斂速度。大部分樣本中，擴大的Solow模型或考慮不同經濟開放程度因素下的內生成長模型，支持條件收斂假說，而後者設算出的收斂係數明顯較為低。此外，考慮採用Arellano and Bond(1991)的the first difference GMM估計式可能存在弱工具性問題(a weak instruments problem)，以Blundell and Bond(1998)發展出的the system GMM估計式，作為探討初始所得與經濟成長收斂的關係應是較為適合的方法。 / This research examines the economic growth conditional convergence hypothesis. Using the data of 29 provinces in Mainland China between 1978 and 2005, this study applied the structural time series model to deconstruct the provinces’ real GDP per capita into two parts - the level and the slope of trend movement. The characteristics of this paper are to include the level and the slope of trend of potential GDP and to consider the lagged dependent variables into the panel data. This study intends to validate whether the income level of relatively poor provinces will gradually catch up that of the relatively affluent provinces in Mainland China eventually. In addition, this study, based on the convergence or divergence in the first-order and second-order conditions of GDP tendency, will confirm the essence of the convergence in real GDP. The findings are that the essential key of the convergence in real GDP per capita is the convergence of the potential level of GDP. The growth of potential GDP tendency slope would affect the converging speed of real income in regions. The testing results of either the augmented Solow model or the endogenous growth model which considered different economic opening degrees both support the conditional convergence hypothesis in most sample sets, while the estimated convergence coefficients of the later are significantly lower than those of the former. In addition, considering the possible weak instruments problem in the first difference GMM estimator developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), the system GMM developed by Blundell and Bond (1998) should be a more suitable way to observe the relation between initial income level and economic growth convergence.

本文使用 1981 年 1 月 5 日至 1997 年 5 月 31 日台灣加權股價指數以及交易股數的資料探討台灣股市的時間序列特性，並且針對政府對股市的干預政策檢定政策干預的有效性。本文採用的實證方法包含 Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)單根檢定，Perron 結構性改變檢定， ARCH 效果檢定，干預分析(Intervention Analysis)以及 Granger 因果關係檢定。實證檢定的結果如下： 1、在單根檢定方面，股價指數、交易股數和股價指數變異數三個時間序列都是一階穩定序列。 2、在 Parron 結構性改變檢定方面，股價指數、交易股數和股價指數變異數三個時間序列在 1990 年 5 月到 10 月之間曾經發生明顯的結構性改變。 3、在 ARCH 效果檢定方面，股價指數和交易股數二個時間序列的殘差項都有 ARCH(1)效果存在，而股價指數變異數的殘差項不存在 ARCH(1)效果。 4、在干預分析方面，穩定基金對股價指數的干預效果不顯著。 在漲跌幅限制方面，漲跌幅限制的變動對股價指數、交易股數及股價指數變異數的干預效果都不明顯。 在證卷交易稅稅率改變的干預分析方面，證卷交易稅稅率改變對交易股數和股價指數變異數沒有影響，但是證交稅稅率變動和股價指數呈現正向的關係。 5、在 Granger 因果關係檢定方面，本研究發現漲跌幅限制改變和股價指數漲跌二者互為因果，但是股價指數對漲跌幅的影響較大。 在證卷交易稅稅率改變與股市的因果關係方面，本研究發現股價指數的漲跌是證交稅稅率改變之因，顯示主管機關的證交稅稅率政策是受股市的市場狀況所左右。 / In this paper, I examine the effectiveness of official intervention in Taiwan's equity market. I consider the security transaction tax, price limit and stabilization funds as examples. The nonstationarity and structural changes of equity index time-series process were first detected and detrended. The Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is employed to examine the intervention effectiveness, since it allows for a formal test of changes in the index mean level, index conditional variance or both, in response to the changes of security transaction tax and price limit. The results implies that policy authority adjusted security transaction tax and price limit in accordance to the change of equity index level. I also find that the imposition of security transaction tax and price limit have no significant effect on reducing the equity index volatility.

長久以來,人類在萬物中獨具的高智慧特質吸引了無數的哲學家和科學家 投入對其研究,除了醫學的原因之外,由於人腦所具有卓越的辨識系統及學 習能力,為數不少的科學家們相信人腦存在許多最適化系統與設計,因此如 何模仿人類腦神經的組織與運作,一直是很多人努力及夢寐以求的.因此類 神經網路就是依據這些理念而在各研究領域上廣為發展與應用,其中本文 所探討的倒傳遞神經網路模型更是目前類神經網路模型中最具代表性,應 用最廣的模型.而結構性時間數列模型則是將可被觀察的變數分解成趨勢, 季節性,不規則性等不可被觀察項,故其對經濟意義的解釋是相當明當明顯 的,藉由狀態空間模式的轉換,我們將很容易地利用卡門濾器來作估計與預 測.而本文所欲探的重點在於比較有學習機能的倒傳遞神經網及可利用最 新的資訊更新之結構性時間數列何者之預測能利較佳,藉此瞭解二者之一 些特性.

2008年初，正值美國籠罩次級房貸風暴影響、全球經濟景氣趨緩、產油國地緣政治因素造成能源價格創新高…等險峻經濟狀況之際，投資銀行設計一包含 :搭配出局條款之CMS Spread雪球型利率結構商品及結合附加WTI上限、USD/JPY匯率上下限之異型選擇權的混合結構性商品提案。本文依據標的資產屬性，參考相關文獻及近期在頂級期刊發表之利率資產評價模型研究中，選用Extended BGM模型(Ting-Pin Wu, and Son-Nan Chen(2007))、遠期曲線模型及匯率評價模型為個案之基礎評價模型；以無套利觀念依取得之市場各資產相關公開報價資料估算各模型所需之參數；由於屬於雪球利率結構型商品及路徑相關特性，在目前相關文獻無封閉解的條件下，使用蒙地卡羅模擬獲得未來各資產之現金流折現值，進而計算預期理論價值。依據上述方法論評價所獲得之預期理論價格顯示，個案並非具公平價值之交易，依此結論強烈建議客戶不應該承做本交易。 個案相當於投資銀行以買入一個5年期附帶出局條件，隱含看空經濟景氣循環之CMS Spread選擇權及買入一個1年期看空WTI價格選擇權建構此混合結構性商品。為強化客戶承做意願，設立一似乎觸及機會很大，但從交易後至今從未觸及的出局條件，又透過每日數位選擇權計息方式將WTI波動度資產化，提供大於10%之相對LIBOR rate 很高，但實際是被低估之半年收息固定費率。由於雪球型利率結構型商品特性，收益不僅取決於是否達成交易付款條件，更重要因素是達成時間點之速度。 在蒙地卡羅模擬資產價格路徑中，觸及頭一次CMS Spread付款條件天數之眾數區間為125至135，貼近實際136天。從評價結果，交易之付款條件內已隱含透過兩個不同標的資產選擇權之高預期獲利相互達到避險、套利及強化收益等效益;投資銀行可以不用額外對受眾多複雜不確定因數影響之WTI價格採取避險策略，而將所有避險成本轉嫁於選擇權賣方的客戶。在資本計提規範下及確保未來預期收益之考量下，投資銀行唯一要做是以低成本尋求中介銀行進行背對背交易以強化因市場風險所衍生之信用風險。 從研究過程，不禁讚嘆個案是投資銀行設計建構在財務工程科學上的卓越藝術及策略，從它一旦出現世界上之瞬間，個人預估其價值將達34,211,458.09美元! / Early 2008 was a steep economic era when U.S. was enveloped by subprimemortgage crisis, world's economy was slowing down, and energy prices were pushed to a historical record high by oil geopolitical factors. Under this situation, an investmentbank designed a hybrid structure product, which includes a CMS Spread Snowball interest rate structured product with USD/JPY FX rate Knock out condition, a WTIoption of an additional upper limit, a USD/JPY exchange rate combined exotic option of upper and lower limits. After considering assets attributes and reviewing the relevant literature and recent research published in top journals related to the interest rate assetpricing model, Extended BGM model (Ting-Pin Wu, and Son-Nan Chen (2007)), forward curve model, and FX Rate model are selected as the basic pricing models. Tocalculate the expected theoretical value of this structured product, the unavailable model parameters of assets are estimated through the public market data based on thearbitrage-free concept, and the discounted values of the assets future cash flows are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation because of snowball interest rate structured product and path dependency characteristic and no close form solution in current relevant literature. The results of the pricing models shows that the net present value(NPV) received by customers is lower than that received by the investment bank, theconclusion is : Strongly recommend customers should not to do this trade ! In this case, the investment bank used a long position of one 5-year period CMSSpread Option with knock out condition, which implies Bearish on the economic cycle, and a short position of a 1-year period WTI option with up and low limits condition to construct this hybrid structure product. To draw customers’ attention to this proposal, the investment bank designed a knock out condition that seemed to be met very easily,but the price never touched by the article finished date. Additionally, a daily accrued digital option is used to transfer WTI volatility to a semi-annual fixed yield over 10% that, compared to LIBOR Rate, is very high but actually is underestimated. For theSnowball structure product, the total profit depends on not only when but also, more importantly, how soon to meet the payment condition. According to the asset pricing path generated by Monte Carlo simulation, the mode range which CMS Spread payment condition first met is 125 to 135 days after the contract’s value date, very close to the actually history data of 136 days. From pricing results, terms of contract implied that two different options combined to hedge risk and gain profit from each other. Hence, the investment bank does not need to make extrahedge strategy to WTI price which is impacted by more complicated risk factors.However, customer must spend hedge cost because of taking much risk as a sell option role. Under the Capital Charge regulation, to lock up the expected profit, what the investment bank needs to do is only to pay a very low cost fee, which like insurancepremium, to look for an intermediary bank to offer a back to back trade to manage thecredit risk caused by market risk! During the research of this paper, I am amazed what an excellent art and strategy that designed by the investment bank based on financial engineering science! As this structure product appeared in this world, I estimated that it would worth 34,211,458.09 USD.

網際網路的成長，促使電子商務快速發展。然而，回顧電子商務的市場現況，即使網路購物規模不斷成長，但是卻仍有54.9%的網路商店未能達到損益平衡，主要原因在於激烈的市場競爭環境導致商品毛利率降低，獲利速度減緩。因此，資策會認為網路商店若想在競爭市場中脫穎而出，網站的技術安全必須值得消費者信任。 　　消費者不願意在網路上購買商品或服務，是因為缺乏對網路購物相關安全性的信任與缺乏對網路上企業可靠性的信任。因此，如何建立消費者對網路商店的「信任」，是企業獲得顧客的關鍵因素。 　　過去文獻指出，信任信念能藉由改善網站的結構性確保來提升，且消費者對網站的信任信念會影響到其信任網站的態度。因此，本研究根據文獻探討的方式找出Cialdini影響力模式及其所會影響的消費者信任信念的各個構面，並利用此模式作為結構性確保的實驗變數來設計網站，從中操弄各項實驗變數以探討各種不同影響力原則影響消費者信任信念之效果。接著，再進一步分析各個信任信念分別如何影響消費者的信任態度，以全盤了解消費者初次瀏覽網路商店網站時，利用Cialdini影響力模式所歸納的網站結構性確保所影響之效果。 　　本研究透過實驗室實驗法模擬網路商店的購物情境，並操控不同Cialdini影響力原則所設計的結構性確保，研究結果發現： 1. 除了「好感」原則的結構性確保外，網站中其餘的結構性確保在消費者瀏覽網路商店時，皆會正向影響到消費者的信任信念。 2. 消費者的「認知診斷」、「認知保證」、「認知信心」、「認知能力」、「認知可靠」、「認知嚮往」等信任信念的各個構面，會正向影響消費者的「信任態度」。 / The e-commerce environment has developed rapidly with the fast growth of Internet. However, by reviewing the market status of e-commerce, there were still 54.9% of Internet shops which couldn’t make the profit and loss balance even the internet shopping was growing constantly. The environment was so competitive that the profit margin of product reduced and the rate of making profits slowed down. Therefore, the Institute for Information Industry advised internet shops to enhance their internet security of websites if they wanted to stand out from the competitive environment. 　Consumers are not willing to purchase the products or services due to the lack of trust in the security of the website and credibility of the internet shops. For this reason, the key to gain the consumers is how to make them trust the internet shops. 　Past researches indicated that the consumer’s trusting beliefs can be enhanced by improving the structural assurance of the website. In addition, these trusting beliefs were positively related to the trusting attitude toward the website. Therefore, we identified the constructs of the trusting beliefs which could be affected by Cialdini’s Influence Model from literature review. We used this model to design the structural assurances of the website as experimental variables to probe the differences of consumer’s trusting beliefs under the model’s principles. Furthermore, we understand the effect of structural assurance by analyzing how the constructs of trusting beliefs affected consumers’ trusting attitude when consumers visit the Internet shop at the first time. 　This research manipulated the principles of Cialdini’s Influence Model to design the structural assurance of website and simulated the situation of internet shopping via laboratory experimentation. The research result was shown as below: 1.　The structural assurances designed by Cialdini’s Influence Model were positively related to the trusting beliefs of consumers except the “Liking” principle. 2.　The constructs of consumer’s trusting beliefs were related to the trusting attitude toward the website positively and respectively.

在前人的研究中，已透過音韻規則的角度分析梅縣客語 (Meixian Hakka) 和曼谷客語 (Bangkok Hakka)， 但仍有部分疑問未獲得合理解釋。諸如：部分聲調不會受變調規則(Tone sandhi)的影響、變調的觸發條件以及本調 (Citation tone) 和變調間結構上的關係等。 有鑒於此，本研究透過優選理論 (Optimality theory, OT) 重新分析梅縣客語和曼谷客語。 上述兩個方言有兩種變調的方式 : 同化(assimilation)和異化(dissimilation)。在此基礎上，為了更準確的描述變調現象，本研究在分析上主要採用必要性起伏原則 (obligatory contour principle) 和避免起伏原則 (no-jumping principle)，並應用聯合制約 (Constraint Conjunction approach) 的概念。採取此分析方式的理由在於分析對象的變調具有相當有標(marked)且受限於中心詞(head)右端音節的聲調。此外，本研究也採用一部分比聲調結構性制約(tonal markedness constraint)更高排序的信實性制約(faithfulness constraint)。這些制約會導致部分聲調或變調結構不受變調規則影響，例如：調域 (register) 和聲調的起點 (initial target) 將保留原始樣貌。 研究結果指出，聲調結構性制約和數個排序最高的聲調信實性制約能更準確地呈現梅縣客語和曼谷客語在變調時，輸入值與輸出值之間的對應關係 (input-output correspondence)。在論文結尾，筆者將綜覽本研究並提出未來可繼續延伸的相關議題。 / The grammar of Meixian and Bangkok Hakka tone sandhi has been analyzed from a rule based approach. Nevertheless, there are some questions and details that could not be solved by the analysis, such as the status of tones that do not undergo sandhi, triggers of the tone sandhi, and the structural relation between citation tones and their sandhi counterparts. Thus, the purpose of this study is to re-analyze the tone sandhi in Meixian and Bangkok Hakka under the constraint based framework, Optimality Theory (OT). There are two mechanisms of tonal alternations in the two dialects’ tone sandhi: assimilation, and dissimilation. So in order to capture the tonal alternations, the current analysis applies the concepts of the Obligatory Contour Principle, and the No-Jumping Principle. The constraints generated according to these principles work well with the application of the Constraint Conjunction approach. The conjoined constraints are needed since the tone alternations are highly marked, and depend a lot on the head/right syllable tone. Furthermore, this thesis also posits several faithfulness constraints that rank higher than the tone sandhi markedness constraint. The high ranked faithfulness constraints govern the preservation of several tones from any alternation, and preservation of some structures of the citation tones when they become sandhi tones (i.e. register and initial target). In conclusion, the positing of tone sandhi markedness constraints and undominated identity constraints presents a better input-output correspondence relation of the tone sandhi phenomena in Meixian and Bangkok Hakka. To conclude the thesis, a brief summary of the study and possible further issues are presented.

在過去二到三年之中，能源、金屬、軟性商品等原物料價格漲勢強勁，成為市場上最炙手可熱的商品。然而，原物料價格漲升為全球帶來了通膨隱憂，世界各國紛紛採用各種貨幣政策和財政政策試圖緩解通膨壓力。其中，利率政策即是相當重要的一環。在這樣的背景之下，是否對於能源、貴金屬和利率衍生性商品的設計和定價上產生影響，值得進一步檢視。因此，本論文選擇以中國大陸的原油與黃金連結複合式選擇權，以及利率（HIBOR）連結可贖回每日區間計息等兩種結構性存款作為研究個案，以財務工程的理論模型為中國銀行的金融創新產品作評價與分析。 在原油與黃金連結複合式選擇權部分，分別假設金價和油價服從幾何布朗運動（Geometric Brownian Motion）推導出封閉解，以及Schwartz的一因子均數回歸模型，採蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬標的資產之價格路徑並以之估算商品理論價值和發行機構利潤，之後則就避險參數和商品預期收益率作分析。在利率連結可贖回每日區間計息結構性存款部分，由於具有發行機構可提前贖回的特性，本論文採用LIBOR市場模型（BGM Model）為評價基礎，先利用市場報價資訊計算期初遠期利率及進行參數校準，再以蒙地卡羅模擬法模擬遠期利率路徑，最後以Longstaff and Schwartz（2001）提出的最小平方蒙地卡羅法（LSM）計算商品理論價值和發行機構利潤。 除估算商品理論價值以檢視中國銀行的商品定價合理性之外，本文也針對中國大陸的外匯和利率政策對金融機構在商品設計方面的影響作分析，最後則分別就財務工程與金融創新以及總體政策與金融市場兩方面提出結論與建議，以供各界參酌。 / The prices of physical commodities have risen a lot and led to pressure of inflation for several years. Many countries over the world have tried hard to tackle inflation threat with monetary and fiscal policies. Under this circumstance, the design and pricing of structured products should be affected. Therefore, the oil and gold-linked and interest rate-linked structured deposits launched by Bank of China are selected to be the case study in this thesis. Prices of the underlying assets are assumed to follow Geometric Brownian Motion, and the close-form solution of the oil and gold-linked structured deposit embedded with compound options is derived. Moreover, Schwartz’s One-Factor Mean Reversion Model is adopted to derive the fair value by simulation. In addition to the fair value and issuer’s profit, the expected rate of return, hedge parameters (Greeks) and model difference are presented in this thesis. As for the interest rate-linked Callable Daily Range Accrual Deposit, the thesis presents the steps of pricing by simulation. LIBOR Market Model (BGM Model) is adopted to derive the fair value of Callable Range Deposit with Least Squares Monte Carlo approach. Besides, the design and pricing of structured products are actually influenced by those policies in relation to interest rates and currencies adopted by government of Mainland China. The influence is discussed in the thesis as well. Eventually, the conclusions and suggestions are made with respect to macroeconomic policy and financial market as well as financial innovation.