目前全球化時代正面臨第一次真正的金融及經濟危機。歐美各國領導人已然意識到應以多國主義意涵的行動來因應全球金融危機。雙方因應此次全球金融危機的策略與政策工具，包括緊急紓困措施以及中長期金融改革計畫等，可說是任重道遠，並且對於全球未來走向以及政經結構來說，都具有非常重大的指標意義。本論文主要藉由分析歐美兩大集團因應全球金融危機的策略，以瞭解相關策略與政策工具的意涵與執行成效，政府與市場力量在不同環境條件下的搭配，歐盟與美國在全球政經結構中權力地位的互動與配置，以及全球金融體制的修正與願景等。筆者在本論文中以全球金融危機做為論述起點，嘗試透過理論的辯證與檢驗，對照實際情況的發展，分析歐美迄今為止相關因應策略的意涵與成效，釐清其是否會淪為紙上談兵的隱憂，並試圖為各國政府找尋一個較佳的策略方向來處理當前以及未來可能的各種危機，以提供相關研究者一個思考方向。

本研究探討了收益率（earnings yield）和亞洲市場的長期政府債券收益率( long term government bond yield)的關係。並且運用結構性變異來以提高聯準會模型和股價的相關性。聯準會模型是用來判斷市場是否高估或低估股價或在其公允價值。本研究在亞洲十個主要市場進行實證研究，探討聯準會模型中不同的時間跨度的關係。結果顯示在亞洲國家，大盤的收益率和幾個月後的長期政府債券收益率之間有強關聯性。本研究通過迴歸分析研究來研究此模型的預測能力，並考慮不同的結構性變異檢定法ROC 和Bai_Perron檢定，結論顯示了ROC 檢定法更有效的偵測結構變異，提高聯準會模型的預測能力。 / This paper examines the possible relationship the earnings yield and long term government bond yield for the Asia markets. We apply structure break test to improve the Fed-model, which is used to judge whether stock prices are too high, too low or at their fair value. The paper examines the relationship proposed by the Fed- model with different time horizons. The findings reveal a strong association between long term government yield and the earnings yield in months later. The difference between the earnings yield and real bond yield is a shorthand measure for expected returns and we examine the predictive power of this measure by regression analysis. Considering ROC test and Bai_Perron test, it shows ROC test improves the forecasting power of Fed model with a better result.

本研究以1993年到2017年3月間的193篇FOMC Minutes作為研究素材，先採監督式學習方法，利用潛在語意分析（latent semantic analysis，LSA）萃取出升息、降息及不變樣本的潛在語意，再以線性判別分析(Linear Discriminant Analysis, LDA)進行分類；此外，本研究亦透過非監督式學習方法中的探索性資料分析(Exploratory Data Analysis, EDA)，試圖從FOMC Minutes中找尋相關變數。研究結果發現，LSA可大致區分出升息、降息及不變樣本的特徵，而EDA能找出不同時期或不同類別下的重要單詞，呈現文本的結構變化，亦能進行文本分群。 / In this study, 193 FOMC Minutes from 1993 to March 2017 were used as research materials. The latent semantic analysis (LSA) in supervised learning methods was used to extract the potential semantics of interest rate increased, decreased, and unchanged samples, and then linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was used for classification. In addition, this study attempts to find relevant variables from FOMC Minutes through exploratory data analysis (EDA) in unsupervised learning methods. The results show that LSA can distinguish the characteristics of interest rate increased, decreased, and unchanged samples. EDA can find relevant words in different periods or different categories, show changes in the text structure, and can also classify the texts.

本篇論文檢驗聯準會模型在六個亞洲市場：中國大陸、印度、馬來西亞、新加坡、台灣和泰國是否成立。我們首先檢驗共整合檢定來觀察變數之間長期的關係；另外，針對線性的指標模型，我們則檢測其是否具有非線性的門檻自回歸情形。實證結果顯示，於共整合檢定下，六個國家的股票價格、股票報酬和十年期債券殖利率具有長期共整合關係；而在非線性的TAR模型配適下，其解釋能力優於線性的AR模型。 / This paper studies the Fed Model in six Asia countries, China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. We examine the cointegraiton test for the long-run relationship and build a nonlinear threshold autoregressive model (TAR) between the long -term government bond yield, the stock index and the earning s index. Our empirical results show that such a long-run relationship indeed exists for those countries. In addition, the explanatory power of TAR model is better than linear AR model.