Disaster management and insurance are of increasing significance in today’s world. Every year, natural disasters cause tens of thousands of deaths and tens of billions of dollars worth of losses. The figures available from international agencies such as the International Federation of Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies and from major transnational insurance and reinsurance corporations meeting in Davos every year under the World Economic Forum show that mortality rates have been fairly consistent, whilst the number of recognized catastrophic events, and even more, the size of economic losses, have rapidly increased. This research examines the difficult task to successfully mobilize the requisite financing for adaption. Traditionally, governments have endorsed ex-post financing instruments. This research argues that there is substantial value in shifting to a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy that stresses the combination of a broader distribution of risk and the implementation of ex-ante financing instruments as the most effective way to achieve coherent financial protection. This research analyzes the diversity of national disaster risk governance across East Asia from the comparative perspective of the national disaster management plans implemented by the governments of Taiwan, Japan and China to handle the rising costs of natural disasters. This research aims to provide a research platform to assist policy development design to increase government financial preparedness for catastrophe risks. Disaster management studies are not a discipline per se, but a field of study borrowing to several disciplines of social sciences from economics to geography. Since government responses to threatening disaster situations are what draw the attention of this research, it makes sense to consider problem-solving theories of political science as the most appropriate theoretical settings to locate this analysis. Therefore, the theoretical foundations of functionalism and disaster theory serve as a theoretical support. Using a descriptive approach, this research favors a qualitative type of methodology. The primary sources consulted during the fieldwork, as well as the information gathered as evidence, demonstrate that the governments of Taiwan, Japan and China have taken a series of measures and actions to tackle the financial costs of natural disasters, including the elaboration of legal frameworks, the enactment of budgetary rules and the development of local support and private participation. However, despite the efforts and policies adopted, these governments continue to bear the financial burden of handling the majority of economic losses, and to resort to post-disaster financing instruments to assume their financial responsibility. This research concludes that, given their exposure to natural disasters and the rising costs associated with these events, the governments of Taiwan, Japan and China have no choice but to shift towards effective national disaster risk governance that will promote private coverage and preserve public finances.

現時点で投稿予定であり詳細が未定のものも含めて，いずれの投稿先も出典表示を求めている． / 京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第19690号 / 工博第4145号 / 新制||工||1640(附属図書館) / 32726 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 八木 知己, 教授 白土 博通, 教授 澤田 純男 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

中國大陸是世界自然災害發生、災情最嚴重的國家之一，具有災害種類多、發生頻率高、分佈地域廣、造成損失大等特點，對中國的經濟建設與社會發展，造成多方的嚴重破壞與影響。 目前中國大陸的災害管理主要是縱向的災害管理模式，即在中共中央「統一領導」下，主導災害管理，並堅持「政府集體領導、上下分級管理、部門分工負責、以地方為主、中央為輔」的災害管理體制，劃分為國家級減災管理、省級減災管理與地方級（城鄉社區）減災管理等三個層次，凸顯中國災害管理體制出現不少問題，也暴露出中國應急救援工作存在薄弱環節。 因此近年來，中國逐步形成自然災害的管理處置體系，災害危機管理工作也有一定程度的進展，但2008年發生的雪災、川震，是中國在「SARS」危機結束後，所遇到最為嚴重的危機事件，對中國「統一領導、分級負責、條塊結合、屬地管理」的處置體系，進行一次全面性的檢驗。同時，也對中國政權建設在政治、經濟、軍事、社會以及兩岸關係上，產生決定性的影響。所以，中國政府在面對自然災害格外謹慎，深怕直接影響其政府形象及認可度。 儘管中國因著災害事件接踵而來，在管理應處上逐步學習改善，但評估中國在2008年自然災害的應對中，災害管理仍落後於經濟的增長和社會的發展，與中共中央的要求還是有很大的差距，所以中國未來在應對自然災害管理組織、制度、能力和作為等，還需許多改進和完善的地方。 / Mainland China, having many features of disaster such as various species, high happening frequency, extensive distribution, great damage etc., is one of the countries with the most serious natural disaster situation experience in the world. These features also cause serious destruction to the economic construction and social development of China. Presently, Mainland China takes the vertical disaster administration mode to handle the situation. The government directly leads the disaster administration and insists forming a system of central collective leading, classifying administration , responsibility divided and giving region the priority. It is divided into three levels：national, provincial and regional disaster administration. It reveals many problems in disaster administration of China and exposes insufficient ability of China in dealing with emergency and rescuing sufferers. Therefore, in recent years, China gradually forms a administration system in dealing with natural disasters and makes a certain progress. However the snow disaster and the earthquake of Sichuan, occurred in 2008, were the most serious accidents we ever met in China after the SARS crisis, These contingencies urge China to entirely check the processing system of integrated leading, classified responsibility and possession administration. Simultaneously, these experiences also make a decisive influence to the China political power construction on political affairs, economy, military, society and cross-Strait relations. Thus, the China government carefully confront natural disasters and afraid it influences the image and approve of the government. Although China gradually learn and improves the measures in dealing with the continued accidents, but assessing that China in 2008 in response to natural disasters, disaster management is still lagging behind the economic growth and social development. Also it is still a large gap to conform with the requirements of the CPC Central Committee. Therefore in the future, for China it is still needed to be improved and perfected in response to natural disaster management organizations, systems, capabilities, and actions etc.

大型災害頻傳傷亡慘重，若能把握於救災黃金72小時內救出受困民眾，則可望挽回更多寶貴的生命，但災區通訊網路基礎設施常因災害而遭受嚴重損毀，無法正常運作。救災工作在缺乏通訊系統的支援下，因溝通協調的困難而紊亂無章、效率低落。 本研究提出一個可快速恢復特定區域通訊服務的網路，並為其設計通訊的拓撲結構。我們稱該網路為應急蜂巢式行動通訊網路(Contingency Cellular Network)，簡稱CCN網路。CCN網路利用無線電連接災區行動電話網路中斷訊但結構未損的基地台建構而成，具有建置速度快、使用門檻低等多項特點，可支援災區救援的緊急通訊。 本研究中，我們以各毀損基地台通訊範圍內的通訊需求人數與災區毀損程度，作為效益參數，嘗詴在蜂巢式網路的格網架構以及數量有限的緊急通訊設備下，選擇效益較高的位置點配置緊急通訊設備，建立應急蜂巢式行動網路的網路拓撲，此拓撲除追求最大救災效益外，並顧及通訊品質，避免建立負載失衡的連線。我們將問題塑模為一類似圖論中的K-Minimum Cost Spanning Tree (K-Cardinality Tree or KCT)問題，稱為Depth Bounded K-Maximum Profit Spanning Tree問題，並提供數個快速的啟發式演算法，可在緊急時快速地建立應急蜂巢式行動網路拓撲。 / When a catastrophic natural disaster occurs, the efficiency of disaster response operation is critical to life saving. However, communication systems, such as cellular networks, usually crashed due to various causes that make coordination difficult for many disorganized disaster response workers extremely. Unfortunately, rapid deployment of many existing emergency communication systems relies on a good transportation system, which is usually not available in a catastrophic natural disaster. We propose a Contingency Cellular Network (CCN) by connecting disconnected base stations together with wireless links and portable power generators. CCN can support existing mobile phone users with limited capability. Such a system can support a large number of voluntary workers in the early hours of a catastrophic natural disaster, thus saving many lives. Communication traffics, either voice or data, are forwarded hop-by-hop to the external network that remains operational. The efficiency and effeteness of CCN is obviously depends on the topology of such a forwarding network. This thesis addresses the design of forwarding topology aiming to maximize its efficiency. We take the degree of emergency degree of the damage, population of each stricken as the priority measure as well as the amount of emergency recovery resources as the constraint to determine the topology. We model the CCN topology design problem into a Depth Bounded K-Maximum Spanning Tree Problem. The problem is proven NP-hard and we designed an efficient heuristic algorithm (DBTB) to solve it. We also model CCN topology design problem into a Hop Concerned K-Maximum Spanning iii Tree Program and designed a HCTB algorithm to solve it. The simulation results show that DBTB algorithm can control tree depth effectively but HCTB can gain more profit.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第23948号 / 農博第2497号 / 新制||農||1091(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R4||N5383(農学部図書室) / 京都大学大学院農学研究科森林科学専攻 / (主査)教授 柴田 昌三, 教授 神﨑 護, 教授 小杉 賢一朗 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第18764号 / 経博第515号 / 新制||経||273(附属図書館) / 31715 / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科現代経済・経営分析専攻 / (主査)教授 今井 晴雄, 教授 宇高 淳郎, 准教授 菊谷 達弥 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(工学) / 乙第13070号 / 論工博第4147号 / 新制||工||1659(附属図書館) / 33221 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 教授 大津 宏康, 教授 戸田 圭一 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

本論文では自然災害の被害発生から復興までの過程を社会の脆弱性に焦点を当てて分析した。まず、経済被害と社会の脆弱性（強靭性）との関連性について実証分析を行った（第1章）。次に、東日本大震災の直接・間接経済被害の推定を行い（第2章、第3章）、2011年のタイ洪水の被害サーベイ（第4章）、阪神・淡路大震災後に実施したアンケート調査による主観的ウェルビーイングの要因分析を行った（第5章、第6章）。結果、本論文では、災害復興の上で社会の強靭性を高めることが重要であることを結論とした。 / This paper studies the post-natural disaster recovery process by focusing on the issue of social vulnerability. First we analyze the relationship between economic damage and socio-economic factors. Next, we estimate the economic damage and loss caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, and investigate social vulnerability in the case of the 2011 Thailand flooding based on a meta-analysis of prior research. Finally, we analyze subjective well-being using survey data from areas affected by the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake. In conclusion, this paper finds that social resilience is the basis for disaster mitigation and recovery. / 博士(政策科学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Policy and Management / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

當發生大規模的地震或強烈的颱風等重大天然災害時，通訊系統常常隨著電力與交通系統的損毀而癱瘓。由歷年大型災變中多數災區內之行動通訊系統全面中斷即可印證行動通訊系統其實是極為脆弱的，然而有效運作的通訊系統卻是災情傳遞、資源調度及救災是否順利的關鍵因素。本文所探討的應急通訊系統利用倖存的連通基地台和斷訊卻沒有損毀的基地台，以無線電連接起來建構一個臨時性的通訊系統，稱為應急蜂巢式行動通訊網路(Contingency Cellular Network，CCN)。由於各地災情狀況不完全相同，CCN的建構順序必須考慮災區的輕重緩急、時間的急迫等因素依序建構。因此當CCN拓樸規劃完成後，根據CCN拓樸、各地災情嚴重程度以及拓樸中基地台間的相對距離(運輸時間)進行基地台建構排程規劃，以達到最大的總救災效益。 本文考慮各基地台所能發揮的救災效益、所需建構時間、以及運輸工具從任一基地台到另一基地台所需運輸時間，提出兩個適合CCN拓樸樹狀結構的考慮資源運輸路徑之最佳化排程模型CCNDS-AC和CCNDS-UC。CCNDS-AC限制建構順序必須從連網台往下循序建構，但CCN-UC則否。因發生突發性大型天然災害時，可容許的計算時間相當短暫，因此提出了兩個快速的啟發式演算法DS-ACG與DS-UCB，可在短時間內求出一組相當逼近於最佳解的建構排程順序，與DS-UCB相互比較。本文以電腦模擬的方式進行小規模實驗與大規模實驗評估，並且用Genetic Algorithm來比較啟發式演算法的效能。結果顯示DS-UCB明顯優於DS-ACG及Genetic Algorithm。在小規模實驗中DS-UCB可求得與最佳解的總救災效益誤差平均約0.9%的近似最佳解建構順序。而在大規模實驗下， DS-UCB與十萬個解中的最佳解─pseudo optimal solution相較，總救災效益平均高出約16.7%，而總救災時間平均約少了19.4%。 / When stricken by a large-scale disaster, the efficiency of disaster response operation is very critical to life saving. However, cellular networks were usually crashed in earthquake, typhoons or other natural disasters due to power outage or backhaul breakage. Unfortunately, the efficiency of communication system is a critical factor to the success of disaster response operation. We designed a contingency cellular network (CCN) by connecting physically intact but service-disrupted base stations together with wireless links. Since the transportation capacity may be very limited, scheduling of CCN deployment order according to the demand of disaster operation and traveling time between base stations becomes an important issue. We propose two optimization models: CCN Deployment Scheduling Antecessor Constrained Problem (CCNDS-AC) and CCN Deployment Scheduling Unconstrained Problem (CCNDS-UC), aiming to maximize the efficiency of disaster response operation. Both problems are proven to be NP Hard. We also designed two rapid heuristic algorithms, DS-ASG and DS-UCB to solve the problems respectively when it is needed in urgent. Finally, we evaluated the proposed algorithms against optimal solutions (in small cases only) as well as genetic algorithm by simulation. The experimental results show that DS-UCB outperforms all other algorithms. In small scale cases, the profit obtained by DS-UCB is only 0.9% smaller than what the optimum solution can get. In large scale cases, as compared to the pseudo optimum solution, which is the best solution among 100,000 solutions, DS-UCB outperforms pseudo optimum solutions in profit by 16.7%, and in traveling time by 19.4%, both in average.

本研究以經歷過921大地震以及多次土石流災害的雲林縣古坑鄉為個案，透過參與觀察法、質性訪談以及文獻檔案分析的方式，以了解當那些受到環境劇變的人們在經歷自然災害後，如何在有選的情況下做出遷移與否的決策，而哪些社會因素會在決策過程中影響人們的決定及行動。 本研究的重要發現包括以下幾點：第一，在自然災害發生後，多數的居民會選擇留下，這是基於本身的災害識覺排除了立即性、短時間內的生命威脅。同時，大部分的居民也會因為在地性的資源（如社會關係、在地知識、與在地的不動產）較多，而傾向選擇留在原地。同時，有一些社經弱勢家庭會因為非在地性資源的缺乏，也使他們不得不做出留下來的選擇。從生命史的觀點，本研究發現這些遷移決策往往是鑲嵌在長期累積的地方經驗與生活脈絡中的。第二，家庭的遷移往往是家庭成員整體的決定，或考量家庭整體需要後做出的決定。不同的家庭可能採取不同的方式來完成他們在地重建或者是遷移的目標。第三，個人和家庭的慣習往往在選擇的傾向或行動的方式中成為核心。多數人希望能在自然災害發生後恢復既有的生活慣習，但慣習的維持不僅在於個人能力，也與他所在環境中是否有足夠的社會支持有關。當社區中的社會安全網可以提供足夠的支持時，個人與家庭的慣習則得以被維持，而社區社會安全網又和地方產業型態具有緊密關聯。以觀光為主要發展的草嶺村，和在921大地震後轉型為觀光農業的華山村就是兩個極佳的對比案例。研究資料也顯示當地居民改變社會環境的可能，證明了人不是單向地受到社會環境的影響，也可以反向影響社會環境。 / This study aims at understanding how people make migration decisions after drastic environmental changes brought by natural disasters and exploring the social factors influencing these decisions. Gukeng was chosen as a case for this study due to its encounters of the Chichi earthquake and several landslides. The study utilizes qualitative research methods and collects field data, mainly through participant observation, in-depth interviewing techniques and text analysis. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows. First, most residents tend to stay after natural disasters, and such choice is based on their hazard perception that excludes immediate and short-term threats to their lives. The majority of residents prefer to stay due to more local resources（including social relationships, local knowledge, and ownership of real estate property）. Those families in lower social-economic status also tend to stay for the lack of non-local resources. From the perspective of life history, these decisions are embedded in local contexts contructed and experiences accumulated throughout the years. Second, family’s migration decision is usually made by all family members or based on the needs of all members. Different families may use different ways to reach their goals of migration or rebuilding on the same ground. Third, the habitus of individuals and families often become the core element in the modes of choice and action. Most people want to be able to recover their habitus after the natural disasters. However, the maintenance of the habitus is based not only on personal capacity, but also on the social support drawn from the his environment. People can maintain their habitus when the local community safety net can provide enough support, and the local community safety net is highly related to the development of local industries. The comparative study of Caoling Villege and Huashan Villege provides an illustrative example, in which the former is based on tourism and the latter was transformed into eco-tourism and tourist agriculture after the Chichi earthquake. The findings also show the possibility of people changing the environment, proving the mutual influence between individuals and the environment.