歐元成功的發行流通，以及歐盟貨幣暨經濟同盟的合作關係，帶動歐元區亮麗的經濟成長。亞洲在經歷1997年金融風暴後，各界倡議亞洲應加速進行貨幣合作，以減少匯率波動對經濟帶來的衝擊。 亞洲可參考歐元前身－歐洲通貨單位(European Currency Unit, ECU)的經驗來編製亞元。但問題在於，相對於歐盟國家，亞洲國家經濟發展與政治背景差異大。本文主要探討，何種總體條件納入亞元權數的計算，可避免亞元產生不必要的波動，並嘗試納入外匯政策有關變數，以反映亞洲國家間的歧異。另外，亦希望從試編亞元，模擬台灣加入亞元的可能影響。 研究結果發現：1.亞元權重，採GDP ppp計算權值，使ACU波動最小。隱含，對亞洲來說，當經濟發展越相近，有助穩定ACU。2.採出口值、進口值或總貿易值作權重，對ACU之影響，差異不大。3.增加調整基期，ACU較為穩定。4.台灣加入ACU後波動度明顯變小，而僅有東協加三組成之ACU波動程度最大。5.加入資本管制變數後，ACU的波動度均下降。

有關匯率決定因素的理論，一直是國際金融領域里的熱門話題。在傳統的利率平價原 理中，結合了即期與遠期外匯市場及國內外債券或貨幣市場，探討遠期匯經對即期匯 率的升水或貼水，在各市場無管制的情況下，將會透過人們的套利活動，使其趨近於 國內外的利率差額。但是，傳統的利率平價學說往往和現實狀況有一些差距，因此， 有不少學者提出各種解釋，來說明偏離利率平價原理的現象。 Aliber(1973)提出政治風險的影響, 認為即使在現況為資金可自由流通之下, 套利者 會因為預期主管當局運用資本控制的潛在可能性, 而增加風險貼水的要求。另外, Br -onson(1969);Frenkel Levich(1975,1977);Otani & Tiwari(1981);Bahmani-Oskooe -e and Das(1985)皆提出, 在不完全市場下, 必有交易成本的存在, 因此, 當偏離平 價的缺口在交易成本的上下限之間擺動, 即所謂的中性帶(Neutral band)。基本上, 若匯率與利率的變化具有隨機性, 且樣本數夠大, 則偏離平價的缺口應以零為均數, 我們便可以認定套利活動是有效率的。而Geoffrey(1988)也提出了國內外資產的不完 全替代性, 例如, 套利者不能在貨幣市場發行國庫券負債導致遠期匯率脫離無風險套 利的水準。 根據以上文獻, 本論文將就臺灣的金融市場逐漸步向自由化與國際化的趨勢, 來探討 利率平價原理在臺灣的適用性, 并評估臺灣美元遠期外匯市場效率性, 及就央行實施 部份資本、外匯管制對於無風險套利影響行為做檢定。

鑑於近年來中國大陸經濟高度成長，當地金融市場在其內需市場強勁，以及均富水準普遍提升下，更顯得朝氣蓬勃，本論文係以分析過去外資金融機構在中國大陸相關佈局模式及進行相關實證研究，並續以剖析臺灣銀行業未來佈局中國大陸市場策略，以作為現階段國內高度競爭金融環境下，拓展另片藍海空間之策略與方向。 本論文首先說明外資金融機構於近年來在高度發展中國大陸金融市場所扮演的角色與目標，並應用Cox比例強度存活模型，分析採行參股策略方式進入中國大陸銀行之動機與機率強度，並以主成份分析進行資料萃取及最大概似法估計模型參數。再者，藉由此參股機率估計值進而求得外資金融機構最適參股機率強度門檻，可作為日後金融機構（含臺灣銀行業）參股動機之衡量指標。實證研究顯示，過去外資金融機構採行參股策略之目的主要在於創造被參股對象市場價值，以增加其參股投資報酬。對於獲利能力及資產品質較佳之外資金融機構，以及資產品質較佳之中國大陸銀行，則往往具有較高的參股與被參股潛在動機。 再者，為進一步探討外資金融機構採行參股策略後之風險與報酬關係，本論文係以或有求償權之模式，同時納入參股外資金融機構與被參股中國大陸銀行之個別資產價值，以及匯率波動等三項動態因子，在股東權益價值極大化為目標，及因應風險性資產所導向之資本管制，據以剖析外資金融機構經參股後之資產價值風險及其影響因素，並以靜態分析所對應之最適參股比例變化情形。其數值分析研究發現：當參股外資金融機構資產價值遞增、負債比率降低，以及所面臨法定風險權數增加時，對於其參股後之整體資產組合風險將有所降低。同時，對於具有高資產品質、獲利佳及多元化幣別資產組合之外資金融機構，以及面臨資產品質佳且著重本土金融開發之被參股中國大陸銀行，將有助於提高外資金融機構之最適參股比例。 針對臺灣銀行業參股模式方面，以投資中國大陸股份制商業銀行之動機強度為最高，其中泛公股銀行相對民營銀行更具有條件優勢，並以具備綠色通道優惠之大西部地區為佳。研究亦顯示，在外資金融機構已著墨中國大陸金融市場些許時日下，對於身為追隨性金融機構的臺灣銀行業而言，在當地金融服務未臻飽和、初始投資成本降低，以及台商業務平均需求成長趨勢下，將有助於降低其進入門檻。同時，研究中也採行模型論證，對於現階段臺灣銀行業實務上多以先行成立代表人辦事處後升格分行，並儘速於合規範內取得人民幣業務承做資格方式，以深根當地金融市場之經營方向，同時研究亦指出臺灣銀行業應具備創新化業務與利基性策略，方能提高採行成立獨資子銀行或參股之進入動機。 / In recent years China has experienced rapid economic growth that enables the advancement of the local financial industry, which benefited from the strong domestic consumption as well as improvement in average income per capita. The purpose of this paper is to point out an alternative direction for Taiwanese banks by mapping out the future China market expansion strategy, as the Taiwanese banks are facing prolong highly competitive domestic market. This paper applies Cox’s proportional-hazard survival model to analyze the strategic decisions of foreign financial institutions about acquiring equity stakes in Chinese banks. Based on principal component analysis, we extract significant independent variables from Cox’s model and employ a maximum likelihood method to estimate parameters. With the probability of equity stake acquisition, we obtain the optimal probability hazard threshold and treat it as a criterion for the foreign financial institutions to conduct equity stakes acquisition. Our empirical results confirm that the decisions of foreign financial institutions about equity stake acquisitions are to increase the profitability and market values of the target Chinese banks. In general, financial institutions with higher earning ability and better asset quality have stronger motives to take part in the acquisition or disposal of equity stakes. The contingent claim model is applied in this paper to examine the risk and return of foreign financial institutions after acquiring equity stakes of a Chinese bank. The model considers dynamic factors such as individual asset value and exchange rates to achieve the goal of maximizing shareholder value. In addition to analyzing the asset value and factors associated with risk after participation, this paper evaluates the optimal acquiring equity stakes proportion with numerical analyses under capital control. For China banking sector, we discover the overall portfolio risk of foreign financial institution will decrease after acquiring equity stakes when the asset value increases, the debt ratio decreases, and the required risk-weighted asset increases. Overall, these foreign financial institutions have well-diversified currency portfolio and enjoy a better asset quality and surplus earning; therefore, they will likely increase their optimal acquiring equity stakes proportion if the invested Chinese banks are with good assets quality and focused on local business. For the analysis of equity stake acquisition in China banks by Taiwanese banks, invested in the joint-stock commercial banks exists the higher intensity than others, and pan-government-owned Taiwanese bank also stands on the better vantage point than private banks. Under the possession of policy advantage for its green channels, the Western China Region is the best district in China for Taiwanese banks. This paper also examines the appropriate time and method to enter the market in China by applying the real options model. Being the market follower, Taiwan banking industry would need to find the right timing when ready entering China sine the market is pretty much laid out by many other foreign financial institutions. Therefore, the paper discovered some salubrious circumstances for Taiwan banking industry to enter the market, for example, the local financial service has not saturated, and initial investment cost is lower or Taiwan businessman demands more service gradually. The paper also confirms the current practice, which is to establish a representative office first and then promote it to a branch, seems to be practical for Taiwanese banks enter the market. Once meet the standard requests and acquire the license to operate RMB business, Taiwanese banks can establish wholly-owned subsidiary bank or take ownership stakes by having the innovation and business strategy in the local financial market.