房屋預售制度是國內不動產業的一大特色，而長期以來國內對房價的研究皆著重於成屋價格，且大都以特徵價格法分析成屋價格屬性，對預售屋價格的形成及成屋與預售屋彼此價格相互影響一直缺乏深入的研究。造成政府管理及業者經營上的困擾，也直接威脅到購屋的權益，因此透過預售屋價格理論層次的探討，將有助於學術界對房屋預售制度的暸解。 由於房屋預售的交易標的為土地及房屋預售契約，而此約定於未來特定時間交貨之契約買賣形式，基本上即具有遠期交易與期貨的性質。因此本文利用儲存理論於無套利均衡的情形下，依序考慮有無不動產市場景氣變動與預售屋產品風險，來加以推演預售屋價格，最後導出預售屋訂價模式為成屋價格加成屋的持有成本，減預售屋的履約保證費用，加上預期景氣變動價差。模式中預售屋產品風險及市場景氣變動因素的考慮，為本研究學術上的主要貢獻。 進一步利用特徵價格方程式來固定品質，使成屋與預售屋在相同的基礎上比較，並藉由太平洋房屋所提供之民國77年∼82年大台北都會區實際成交案例8885筆來試驗。發現期間預售屋每戶價格平均比成屋高出33．08萬，即就大台北都會區的房屋市場而言，購屋者於此期間選購成屋較有利、比較各年之預售屋與成屋價格，除77年之基差為負以外， 78年∼82年的基差都大於零，其中基差變動的原因，可由本研究所建立之理論模式來加以詮釋。最後應用理論模式來分析房屋市場的基差，說明國內預售屋價格大多高於成屋價格的原因，並詮釋理論模式的政策意涵，與對購屋決策及建商經營的應用。 / The pre-sales housing system in Taiwan is a quite unique method allowing home buyers to speculate on or purchase their houses. The prices of pre-sales houses have become a leading indicator of the housing cycle in the market. However, limited knowledge is availab1e regarding how and why pre-sales house prices are determined, or what is the relationshiP between the pre-sales and existing house prices. 　 Determining Whether the theories of forward or futures transactions can account for the pre-sales house pricing behavior is highly desired since one characteristic feature of the pre-sales syStem is its similarity to forwqrd of futures transactions. In this study, an arbitrage perspective is used to discuss the difference (basis ) between pre-sales and existing house prices. Based on the storage theory, a pricing model suitable for pre-sales houses in Taiwan was established steP by step under the considerations of the presence of expected market changes, and the risk of product uncertainty in pre-sales houses.The price of pre-sales houses is equal to the price of existing houses on the transaction date plus the carry cost, and the price difference resulted from expected market changes minus the contract guarantee cost. The established model was then used to analyze the 8885 actual transaction cases provided by the Pacific Rehouse during l988 and l993. We used hedonic price. theory to analyze the differences between pre-sales and existing house price. As far as the overall market is concerned, the analysis found that the difference between the pre-sales house price on the transaction date and the price of the existing house was NT$330,800/unit. The basis was positive in l988 and negative during l989 and l993. By the pricing modeL, we can explain the price of pre-sales houses was greater then that of existing housing in most cases. The results of our research also can be applied to the real estate policy and the decision of purchasing house.

本研究主要依據國內房地產市場的特性，以生產時間落差、預期景氣與宣告效果、以及總體經濟等三個項目為主軸，針對房地產市場的景氣現象進行探討。首先，由生產階段的生產時間落差為出發點，探討房地產景氣與政府政策衝擊對生產時間落差的影響。再來，探討房地產次市場間的互動關係，瞭解預期景氣與宣告效果對不同房地產次市場景氣的影響。最後，探討總體經濟對房地產景氣的影響。在上述理念體系下，本研究進行各項理論的推演與實證分析，所得結論說明如下： 一、房地產景氣對生產時間影響部份 本文以建照面積與使照面積數量之波動關係，分析房地產景氣對生產時間落差之影響，結果發現使照面積與建照面積間存在穩定的長期關係，但建照可能因景氣不佳而取消，此使得長期建照面積大於使照面積，且建商會視房地產景氣的變動而調整興建速度。當房地產市場景氣時，興建速度較快，不景氣時興建速度較慢，使得生產時間落差會因房地產景氣變動而有所不同。另外，建照面積與使照面積間的關係亦會因政府相關政策的改變而產生衝擊，進而改變生產時間落差的長短。 由此觀之，國內房地產市場應較無預售制度的國家有較佳的市場調整機制，不過國內房地產景氣的波動卻依然劇烈，其原因可能在於政府決策與執行有相當長的時間落差，往往造成介入市場的時機不恰當，使得政府政策不但未能發揮反景氣循環的功能，反而成為助漲、助跌的促媒。另外，建築投資業缺乏健全管理亦是可能的原因之一，造成市場良莠不齊，在未經協調而彼此競爭下，往往錯誤評估個別預期銷售額而惡性競爭所造成。 二、預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣影響部份 透過不同次市場的連結，本文發現當政府政策提前宣告時，將會有明顯的宣告效果產生，使得建商雖面對節節高昇的空屋率，依然大量搶建，但建照面積的增加則會促使房價與租金下跌。當前房地產市場的長期不景氣，政府未充分掌握房地產市場的景氣波動，並審慎評估政策的可能衝擊可說是問題的關鍵。此也意味，若政府日後真有必要再對房地產市場實施類似管制措施時，實應於事前進行謹慎的評估，並慎選實施的時機。 其次，市場參與者的預期在市場運作過程中扮演相當重要的角色，對於不同次市場景氣之影響亦不相同，當預期資本利得愈高時，會使房價上漲，但租金卻會減少，因為屋主願意以相對較低的租金將房屋出租，並由長期的資本利得中獲得補償，此可解釋為何國內長期租金與房價比長期偏低的現象。不過，近年來房地產市場面臨相當長時間的不景氣，加以921大地震對於國人傳統「有土斯有財」的理財觀念應有相當程度的衝擊，在預期資本利得相當微薄、甚至為負的情況下，未來租金可能回到較合理的水準。 三、總體經濟度房地產景氣之影響部份 本文檢視總體經濟變數對不同地區房地產景氣的影響，發現不論台北市或台北縣的預售屋房價與貨幣供給、空屋數、建照面積等變數均具有長期均衡關係存在，表示房地產景氣會因總體經濟變數與房地產市場本身供需變化而調整，但在考量結構變遷下，預售屋房價與建照面積間之關係已有所改變，意味未來在分析兩者間之關係時必須更加慎重。 其次，空屋數對於預售屋房價的影響彈性相對大於貨幣供給以及建照面積的影響，且相關變數對於台北市預售屋房價的影響相對大於台北縣，但台北縣預售屋房價消弭均衡誤差的速度較台北市為快，此乃因台北市住宅供給與需求彈性相對較小，當其他影響變數發生變動時，其預售屋房價受到的影響相對較大，故一旦偏離均衡時，必須花費較長的時間來調整。此結果亦顯示，要解決房地產市場長期的不景氣，從消化空餘屋著手最為有效。另外，不論台北市或台北縣預售屋房價與其他變數間的短期領先或落後關係並不明顯，此可能是因房地產市場自1986-1990年這一波房地產景氣後，已產生結構性變遷所造成。 / This dissertation consisted of three relative essays about real estate cycles. The first paper explores the influence of the real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations of total floor areas of building permits and usage permits as a reflection of construction lags. Results support that a long-run equilibrium is existing between them; however, building permits may be dropped during a downswing market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in the real estate cycles and by the impacts of policies.　During a time of strong market, the duration of construction lags is cut shorter and is extended when the market is depressed. The second paper presents a simultaneous equation to examine how expectation of market participants and preannouncement of zoning control influence real estate cycles through three housing submarkets: rental market, sales market, and new construction market. One interesting finding is that, before the government announced a change in its zoning policy, builders constructed at maximum capacity despite fact that the real estate market was already depressed. Such construction only worsens the real estate market condition and extends the duration of depressed period. Another interesting finding is that the expected real estate cycles have different effects on rent and housing price. Although high capital gain expectations drive up the housing price, rent continues to decrease. A high vacancy rate, although decreasing the housing price, has little influence on construction starts. The last paper examines the long-term relationships between real estate cycles and macroeconomic variables by using cointegration test and error correction model. I found that both housing price of Taipei City and Taipei County do have long-term relationships with money supply, vacant houses, and new construction, but when considering market structure change, the relationship between housing price and new construction will change. I also found that the vacant houses have more influence on housing price than that of money supply and new construction, and the influences of these three variables on housing price are more sensitive in Taipei City than Taipei County. These results reflect the market structure of Taipei City and Taipei County is different, and the importance to solve vacant houses problem. Another surprise finding is that short-term lead or lag relationships among these variables are not significant. One possible reason is the structure change of real estate market after 1990.