台灣房地產景氣動向季報的發佈不但為台灣房地產市場該季景氣狀況提供一客觀參考依據，且對未來房地產市場景氣走向進行預測分析，提供房地產景氣相關資訊予社會各界參考。在對未來房地產景氣進行預測方面，是採用領先指標作為一參考標的，雖然領先指標就其特性而言為一預測未來景氣動向的參考資訊，但卻無法明確指出其所預測的期間為多長，本研究所欲探討的部分即在於使用房地產景氣綜合指標之領先指標於預測房地產景氣上可以預測幾季之後的房地產景氣狀況，並探討房地產景氣預測的準確度。另外對廠商景氣預測的部分進行一致性的檢視，再從而比較廠商景氣認知與同時、領先指標之間的關係。希望藉此能釐清房地產景氣季報內的訊息內涵。 本研究透過因果關係檢定，找出領先指標領先同時指標三季的關係，確定可以透過領先指標來預測三季之後的景氣變化情形。再利用平均絕對百分比誤差分析使用領先指標作為預測工具的準確度，經過計算求得平均絕對百分比誤差為4.57%，可以看出使用領先指標作為預測工具相當合適。在廠商本身預測景氣動向上，本研究發現廠商預期符合調適預期理論，且對未來的預期有較為樂觀的趨勢；經過本研究統計整理發現廠商對房地產景氣變動的認知與同時指標的變動之間的一致性並不理想，此有可能是因為市場上各項房地產資訊充斥，廠商並不全然以同時指標的變動來判斷房地產景氣的變動。惟經過前後期的比較，可以發現一致性的上升與不一致性的下降，表示兩者之間認知的一致性有逐漸提升的趨勢。 / The atmosphere of the real estate industry in Taiwan was upswing gradually in the past few decades, and its market information was definitely occupied an significant role and many people started to put their focus on it. In fact, the industry forecast which can be found from those seasonal report was a prediction only that is not accurate, i.e. those projections were based on the current market information only. Therefore, how to interpret and digest the number from those reports is the crucial issue for the reader to think and to consider. This study is trying to find out the time-lags between leading index and coincident index and the accuracy of the cycle forecasting system. The Granger causality test is widely used to examine the time-lags between the leading index and the coincident index. From the result of this study, we can found that there has a 3-season time-gap embedded in, and this is an obvious difference indeed. In addition, the forecasted index of the leading indicator i.e. The MAPE is in 4.57% sharp. Thus, we dare to judge that the result of this study is absolutely accurate with 100% confidence.

本研究所稱建商包括「建設公司」以及有從事建設業之「資產股公司」。建設公司在一般人的認知裡是高獲利的產業，但其營運狀況易受到房地產景氣波動的影響，發生財務危機的比例較其他產業高；而資產股公司投入建設業被認為是挹注獲利拉高股價的題材，因此本研究探討1996-2007年建設公司利潤力績效與房地產景氣的關聯性，獲利較同業佳的建設公司類型、投資決策之差異為何，以及資產股公司從事建設業獲利與房地產景氣之關聯，使建商能根據所發佈之房地產景氣指標在投資決策上做適當之調整，也提供投資人投資建商之參考。研究結果如下： 一、前期房地產景氣越好，建設公司利潤力績效越佳，總銷與購地總額越高。 二、市場佔有率高、建設營收比＞90％的建設公司利潤力績效較佳。借殼上市、曾發生財務危機、上市公司相較於上櫃興櫃公司利潤力績效較差。產品純住宅較產品包含辦公室、廠辦的公司獲利差，但並不明顯。此外，推案區位並非影響建設公司獲利之因素。 三、獲利較佳的建設公司較能夠敏銳掌握房地產景氣趨勢推案，並在景氣較差時敢於持續購地，景氣好時也積極購地。 四、資產股公司多數個案選擇在房地產景氣燈號綠燈時推出，銷售情形佳，貢獻獲利良好。大型商業開發案開發、獲利情形與房地產景氣的關係可能不如一般建案密切。近期開發案除了住宅建案，還有辦公、商場、商務住宅等商業不動產，長期租金收益的開發概念增加，較早期開發多元化。 / The real estate developers in this study included “construction companies” and the “property stock companies” which operate construction businesses. Construction companies are commonly known as a high-return industry by the general public, but their operations are easily affected by real estate cycle and their chances of financial crisis are higher than other industries. It is considered a sure bet for pushing up the share prices when property stock companies participated in the construction industry. This study analyzed the relationship between the profit performances of construction companies and the real estate cycle, the types of relatively high profitability construction companies in the industry, the differences in investment strategies and the relationship between property stock companies’ gain of profits from construction business and the real estate cycle in 1996-2007. This is to enable real estate developers to make appropriate strategic adjustment on their investment according to the announced real estate cycle indicators, and to serve as a reference for the investors on investing in construction companies. The results of the study are as follows: 1.The better the real estate cycle in the previous year, the better the profit performance of construction companies, with higher total sales and total land-purchase amount. 2.The construction companies with higher market share and construction-revenue ratios higher than 90% have better profit performances. The profit performances of backdoor listed companies, companies with previous financial crisis and TSE listed companies are not as good as OTC and emerging-market listed companies. Companies providing purely residential products have poorer profit performances than those providing offices and factory space alongside with residential products, but the difference is insignificant. Apart from that, project location does not affect the profitability of the construction companies. 3.Construction companies with better profits can get hold of the real estate cycle in a relatively fast way. They also can continue to buy land when the real estate cycle is depressing and to actively buy land when the real estate cycle is good. 4.Most projects of property stock companies were released when the real estate cycle signal turned green. Good sales contributed to good profitability. The relationship between large commercial development project profitability and the real estate cycle might not be as close as general construction projects. Apart from residential projects, recent development projects also include commercial real estates such as offices, shopping malls, residential-commercial buildings, etc. The development concept of long-term rental return is more popular and it has more variety than the initial period.

本研究主要在建立1996-2008年間建商的存活預警模型，探討眾多危機事件中對於建商存活的影響力分析。研究所稱建商包括「建設公司」以及有從事建設業的相關公司。在台灣地區位屬火車頭角色的建設業具有舉足輕重的影響力，但其營運的財務槓桿較其他產業高，營運狀況易受景氣波動的影響，因此在事件的產生時對於投資者、銀行的應變處理便顯得相對重要。 危機事件所指除了證管會、台灣經濟新報資料庫的危機認定外，另加入財務之外的事件研究並加以定義。存活預警模型的建立是先以各種事件的相關性分析以了解各種事件的顯著性，並且量化分類後的影響事件，再進行羅吉特分析與存活分析的比對，選擇較適模型與影響力較大的危機事件進行實證分析。研究實證結果如下： 一 危機事件越多，建商經營越不穩定，存亡事件產生機率越高；影響公司存活的共通因子對於公司危機產生的共同預警變數有一定程度上的共通性，且都具有顯著性。 二 本研究將危機事件分類為財務面、監理面、經營面，存亡事件選定有終止上市、全額交割股、掏空三種。經實證後得知，財務面之外的預警變數亦能提供投資人及銀行產業了解公司經營的穩定度。在眾多預警變數中，又以重整、紓困跳票違約、董監事改選對於終止上市影響較大；對全額交割股的影響則以董監事改選、警示股、景氣因素以及利益輸送影響較大；對掏空的影響則以重整、警示股、財務結構較具顯著性。 三 存活期間與存活機率相關性比較中，以景氣預警變數而言，若產生全額交割事件，則產生存亡事件的機率非常高，公司得以存活期間較短。以重整預警變數而言，公司重整後，產生存亡事件的機率非常高，也就是說公司得以存活的期間較其他預警變數短。 四 景氣循環對於建商經營有非常大的影響，不景氣時產生具顯著性的危機事件，將會在較短期間後產生存亡事件。 / The goal of our study is establishing the survival model in the building construction companies during 1996-2008. The real estate developers in this study included “building construction companies” and the “property stock companies” which operate building construction businesses. Building construction companies are common known as a pivotal role in the power of influence by the general public, but the financial leverage is higher than other industries. Operating condition of construction companies is effected by the real estate cycle; in hence it is relative importance of the investers, banks, which the crisis events occurred. The crisis events in this study are not only the definition of Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taiwan Economic Journal Data Bank but also the events besides financial side. The study of survival model, in the beginning, is to analyze the correlation of crisis events to understand the significance of events, quantify the classified of the entire crisis event, and then to compare the results between the Logistic Analysis and the Survival Analysis. Finally, choose the appropriate model and the more influence crisis events to do the empirical analysis. The empirical analysis results of our study are as follows: 1. The more the crisis events occurred, the more the probability of failure events will occur. 2. Our study classified the crisis events into three different species, financial side, supervision side, business side. We choose company delisting, full delivery stock company, and company emptied as the failure events. 3. Compare the correlation of survival period with survival probability. In terms of company reorganized variable, for example, after reorganizing the building construction company, the probability of failure events are getting higher, and the survival duration get shorter than other crisis events. 4. The real estate cycle impact the building construction companies a lot. If significant crisis events occurred during downturn of the real estate cycle, the failure events will be generated in such a short time.

本研究主要依據國內房地產市場的特性，以生產時間落差、預期景氣與宣告效果、以及總體經濟等三個項目為主軸，針對房地產市場的景氣現象進行探討。首先，由生產階段的生產時間落差為出發點，探討房地產景氣與政府政策衝擊對生產時間落差的影響。再來，探討房地產次市場間的互動關係，瞭解預期景氣與宣告效果對不同房地產次市場景氣的影響。最後，探討總體經濟對房地產景氣的影響。在上述理念體系下，本研究進行各項理論的推演與實證分析，所得結論說明如下： 一、房地產景氣對生產時間影響部份 本文以建照面積與使照面積數量之波動關係，分析房地產景氣對生產時間落差之影響，結果發現使照面積與建照面積間存在穩定的長期關係，但建照可能因景氣不佳而取消，此使得長期建照面積大於使照面積，且建商會視房地產景氣的變動而調整興建速度。當房地產市場景氣時，興建速度較快，不景氣時興建速度較慢，使得生產時間落差會因房地產景氣變動而有所不同。另外，建照面積與使照面積間的關係亦會因政府相關政策的改變而產生衝擊，進而改變生產時間落差的長短。 由此觀之，國內房地產市場應較無預售制度的國家有較佳的市場調整機制，不過國內房地產景氣的波動卻依然劇烈，其原因可能在於政府決策與執行有相當長的時間落差，往往造成介入市場的時機不恰當，使得政府政策不但未能發揮反景氣循環的功能，反而成為助漲、助跌的促媒。另外，建築投資業缺乏健全管理亦是可能的原因之一，造成市場良莠不齊，在未經協調而彼此競爭下，往往錯誤評估個別預期銷售額而惡性競爭所造成。 二、預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣影響部份 透過不同次市場的連結，本文發現當政府政策提前宣告時，將會有明顯的宣告效果產生，使得建商雖面對節節高昇的空屋率，依然大量搶建，但建照面積的增加則會促使房價與租金下跌。當前房地產市場的長期不景氣，政府未充分掌握房地產市場的景氣波動，並審慎評估政策的可能衝擊可說是問題的關鍵。此也意味，若政府日後真有必要再對房地產市場實施類似管制措施時，實應於事前進行謹慎的評估，並慎選實施的時機。 其次，市場參與者的預期在市場運作過程中扮演相當重要的角色，對於不同次市場景氣之影響亦不相同，當預期資本利得愈高時，會使房價上漲，但租金卻會減少，因為屋主願意以相對較低的租金將房屋出租，並由長期的資本利得中獲得補償，此可解釋為何國內長期租金與房價比長期偏低的現象。不過，近年來房地產市場面臨相當長時間的不景氣，加以921大地震對於國人傳統「有土斯有財」的理財觀念應有相當程度的衝擊，在預期資本利得相當微薄、甚至為負的情況下，未來租金可能回到較合理的水準。 三、總體經濟度房地產景氣之影響部份 本文檢視總體經濟變數對不同地區房地產景氣的影響，發現不論台北市或台北縣的預售屋房價與貨幣供給、空屋數、建照面積等變數均具有長期均衡關係存在，表示房地產景氣會因總體經濟變數與房地產市場本身供需變化而調整，但在考量結構變遷下，預售屋房價與建照面積間之關係已有所改變，意味未來在分析兩者間之關係時必須更加慎重。 其次，空屋數對於預售屋房價的影響彈性相對大於貨幣供給以及建照面積的影響，且相關變數對於台北市預售屋房價的影響相對大於台北縣，但台北縣預售屋房價消弭均衡誤差的速度較台北市為快，此乃因台北市住宅供給與需求彈性相對較小，當其他影響變數發生變動時，其預售屋房價受到的影響相對較大，故一旦偏離均衡時，必須花費較長的時間來調整。此結果亦顯示，要解決房地產市場長期的不景氣，從消化空餘屋著手最為有效。另外，不論台北市或台北縣預售屋房價與其他變數間的短期領先或落後關係並不明顯，此可能是因房地產市場自1986-1990年這一波房地產景氣後，已產生結構性變遷所造成。 / This dissertation consisted of three relative essays about real estate cycles. The first paper explores the influence of the real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations of total floor areas of building permits and usage permits as a reflection of construction lags. Results support that a long-run equilibrium is existing between them; however, building permits may be dropped during a downswing market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in the real estate cycles and by the impacts of policies.　During a time of strong market, the duration of construction lags is cut shorter and is extended when the market is depressed. The second paper presents a simultaneous equation to examine how expectation of market participants and preannouncement of zoning control influence real estate cycles through three housing submarkets: rental market, sales market, and new construction market. One interesting finding is that, before the government announced a change in its zoning policy, builders constructed at maximum capacity despite fact that the real estate market was already depressed. Such construction only worsens the real estate market condition and extends the duration of depressed period. Another interesting finding is that the expected real estate cycles have different effects on rent and housing price. Although high capital gain expectations drive up the housing price, rent continues to decrease. A high vacancy rate, although decreasing the housing price, has little influence on construction starts. The last paper examines the long-term relationships between real estate cycles and macroeconomic variables by using cointegration test and error correction model. I found that both housing price of Taipei City and Taipei County do have long-term relationships with money supply, vacant houses, and new construction, but when considering market structure change, the relationship between housing price and new construction will change. I also found that the vacant houses have more influence on housing price than that of money supply and new construction, and the influences of these three variables on housing price are more sensitive in Taipei City than Taipei County. These results reflect the market structure of Taipei City and Taipei County is different, and the importance to solve vacant houses problem. Another surprise finding is that short-term lead or lag relationships among these variables are not significant. One possible reason is the structure change of real estate market after 1990.