Submitted by Alexandre Metello (alexandremetello@gmail.com) on 2015-03-06T20:48:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Post-Earnings Announcement Drift no Mercado de Ações Brasileiro.pdf: 1083829 bytes, checksum: 0cc672e25b9cd5a1eda673ccb616f70e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2015-05-08T16:13:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Post-Earnings Announcement Drift no Mercado de Ações Brasileiro.pdf: 1083829 bytes, checksum: 0cc672e25b9cd5a1eda673ccb616f70e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2015-05-20T15:46:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Post-Earnings Announcement Drift no Mercado de Ações Brasileiro.pdf: 1083829 bytes, checksum: 0cc672e25b9cd5a1eda673ccb616f70e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-21T19:31:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Post-Earnings Announcement Drift no Mercado de Ações Brasileiro.pdf: 1083829 bytes, checksum: 0cc672e25b9cd5a1eda673ccb616f70e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-23 / This work seeks to test Brazilian stock market efficiency by identifying the existence of postearnings announcement drift, phenomenon already very well studied and reproduced in the US market. According to the existent literature about the subject, information contained in a firm’s earnings announcements is relevant for pricing of its stocks. Moreover, cumulative abnormal returns for stocks of firms that announce earnings with 'positive surprises' have positive tendency for some period after the earnings announcement. On the other hand, cumulative abnormal returns for stocks of firms that announce earnings with 'negative surprises' have negative tendency for some period after the earnings announcement. The identification of post-earnings announcement drift in the Brazilian stock market may be very useful for structuring of arbitrage strategies and portfolio management. After a theoretical review, the result is presented and shows itself partially consistent with the existent literature. / Este trabalho busca testar a eficiência do mercado de ações brasileiro através da identificação da existência de post-earnings announcement drift, fenômeno já bastante estudado e reproduzido no mercado norte-americano. Segundo a literatura existente a respeito do assunto, a informação contida na divulgação de resultados de uma firma é relevante para a formação de preço de suas ações. Além disso, os retornos anormais acumulados de ações de firmas que divulgam resultados com 'surpresas positivas' possuem tendência positiva por algum tempo após a divulgação do resultado. Por outro lado, os retornos anormais acumulados de ações de empresas que divulgam resultados com 'surpresas negativas' possuem tendência negativa por algum tempo após a divulgação do resultado. A identificação de post-earnings announcement drift no mercado acionário brasileiro pode ser de grande utilidade para a estruturação de estratégias de arbitragem e gestão de portfólios. Após uma revisão teórica, o resultado é apresentado e se mostra parcialmente consistente com a literatura existente.

[pt] Esta dissertação tem como objetivo testar a possibilidade de obtenção de retornos anormais de capital entre jan/1997 e jul/2007 para o mercado acionário brasileiro no curtíssimo prazo. Investigou-se, para tanto, a hipótese de reversão à média. Estratégias contrárias com carteiras compradas em ações perdedoras e vendidas em ganhadoras foram montadas e testadas nos períodos subseqüentes. Evidências foram encontradas a favor da reversão e, consequentemente, a favor da possibilidade de retornos anormais. Depois de verificada a existência de tais retornos, o trabalho ainda corrigiu o risco sistemático da carteira, por meio do alfa de Jensen. Os retornos anormais, de uma forma geral, continuam a existir após incorporar-se o risco ao modelo. / [en] The goal of this study is to test the existence of abnormal stock returns in the Brazilian stock market in the very short run for the period of jan/1997 to jul/2007. The main hypothesis in focus is the mean reversion of returns. Contrarian strategies were used with portfolios built by winner and looser stocks to test the abnormal returns in subsequent periods. There is evidence in favor of the reversion and, consequently, in favor of the possibility of abnormal returns. After verified the existence of these returns, this study examines if they still remain after systematic risk correction (Alfa of Jensen). The abnormal returns still remain after taking into account the systematic risk.

Esta pesquisa buscou investigar a anomalia dos accruals nos retornos de cinco países da América Latina (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México e Peru), bem como observar se os aspectos institucionais impactaram nos retornos anormais de accruals dos países. Para tanto, foram analisadas séries temporais para cada país, agrupadas em carteiras de accruals e carteiras de setor, para os modelos CAPM, 3-fatores e 4-fatores, incluindo o fator accruals e observados os retornos anormais das séries, avaliando-os por meio da estatística GRS e pelas estatísticas de teste do procedimento de Fama e MacBeth. Em seguida, foram construídos modelos de dados em painel para o período de 2004 a 2017, em que as variáveis dependentes foram os retornos anormais de accruals, resultantes das séries temporais mensais de cada uma das empresas, e as variáveis independentes foram os fatores institucionais característicos dos países e as variáveis a nível de empresa. O estudo esperava que, se confirmados os retornos anormais de accruals nas séries temporais da América Latina, os fatores específicos de cada país contribuiriam para explicar as diferenças de retornos anormais existentes entre eles. Os resultados confirmaram a presença de retornos anormais em todos os países da amostra, em todos os modelos e o comportamento dos accruals explicou parte dos retornos. Além disso, as variáveis institucionais dos países estudados impactaram os retornos anormais de accruals. Por fim, esta pesquisa fornece evidências quanto a generalização da anomalia dos accruals, enriquecendo a literatura sobre países ainda pouco explorados e de importância econômica crescente, além de prover indícios sobre os efeitos dos aspectos institucionais na anomalia dos accruals na América Latina. / This research aimed to investigate accrual anomaly of returns from five countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru), and to observe whether institucional factors impacted the accruals abnormal returns in these countries. For that purpose, time series for each country were built, and grouped in accruals and industry portfolios for Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), 3-factor and 4-factor models, including the accrual factor (ACC). Abnormal returns were detected through the GRS statistics and the Fama and MacBeth procedure. Then, panel data models were used considering the period from 2004 to 2017, in which the dependent variables was the accrual abnormal returns resulted from the individual monthly series for each analyzed company; and the independent variables were the country-specific institutional factors and the company-level variables. Considering previous literature, in this study, it was expected that, if the accrual abnormal returns were confirmed in the time series from Latin America, the specific factors from each country would contribute to explain the differences between the returns. The results confirmed the presence of abnormal returns in every country from the sample and in all models, plus, the behavior from accruals partially explains returns. Furthermore, the institutional variables of countries influence the accruals abnormal returns. Finally, this research provides evidence over the generalization of accruals anomaly, contributing to literature on poorly studied, but economically relevant countries, besides providing signs regarding effects of institutional factors effects on the anomaly in Latin America

I investigate a simple merger arbitrage strategy with a focus on middle-market companies. I estimate [-1, 1] buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs) and long-run BHARs of prospective middle-market acquirers after they announce an acquisition and test whether [-1, 1] BHARs are predictive of subsequent long-run holding period returns (HPRs) and long-run BHARs. The [-1, 1] BHARs are calculated for 57 acquiring companies, and then separated into two equal-weight portfolios: one of positive [-1, 1] BHARs (referred to as the long portfolio) and one of negative [-1, 1] BHARs (referred to as the short portfolio). I then calculate the HPR and long-run BHARs over the following time horizons: [2, 22], [2, 43], [2, 64], [2, 127], and [2, 253]. I perform a Student’s t-test comparing the means of the HPRs of the two portfolios and find that the long and short [2, 22] and [2, 64] HPRs have statistically different mean returns. Similarly, I perform a Student’s t-test comparing the means of the BHARs of the two portfolios and find that the difference in the means are not statistically significant. I also regress the different long-run BHARs on [-1, 1] BHARs, adjusted [-1, 1] BHARs, and normalized [-1, 1] BHARs. Adjusted [-1, 1] BHARs are adjusted for the effects of known predictive factors found in prior literature such as the type of payment. For example, if the type of payment is cash, 2.40 percentage points of the [-1, 1] BHAR is attributed to the cash payment. Normalized [-1, 1] BHARs divide each [-1, 1] BHAR by each security return’s standard deviation over the following trading days: [-22, -2]. I find [-1, 1] BHARs and adjusted [-1, 1] BHARs of middle-market lack statistically significant effects on long-run BHARs over the [2, 22], [2, 43], [2, 127], and [2, 253] horizons. [-1, 1] BHARs and adjusted [-1, 1] BHARs of middle-market firms have statistically significant effects on [2, 64] BHARs. Therefore, a possible merger arbitrage strategy may exist for predicting BHARs for the [2, 64] horizon. The strategy consists of an investor going long on all acquirers that have a positive [-1, 1] BHAR and short on all acquirers that have a negative [-1, 1] BHAR over the following trading days: [2, 64]. After the [-1, 1] BHARs are normalized, however, the normalized [-1, 1] BHARs are no longer statistically significant when predicting any long-run BHAR. On the whole, I find the Efficient Market Hypothesis – which states that the market efficiently prices the information released into the market after an acquisition announcement – is correct, at least with respect to the information contained in [-1, 1] BHARs.

<p>IPO underpricing is a phenomenon found in all markets worldwide. Investors are always looking for a good opportunity of short-term abnormal positive returns, and the IPOs first-day trading returns have been a good investment strategy for both institutional and private investors in all markets of the world.</p><p>This study consists at an investor’s perspective analysis of the first-day returns of 59 IPOs listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange Market from January 2004 to April 2007, where I have found a significantly mean positive underpricing of 6,60%.</p><p>I have found also some evidences of a sprouting “hot-market” period in Brazil, since the number of the IPOs in Brazil has been growing almost in an exponential speed, taking advantage of the constant growing cash inflow and liquidity of the Brazilian market, followed by the high evaluation of the Ibovespa Index, with return of 140% on the study time frame.</p><p>When categorizing the study by year, by underwriter (investment bank) and by market segment, I always have found positive adjusted initial returns, which corroborates the fact that underpricing is a constant phenomenon in the Brazilian market.</p><p>Other important facts that were identified in this study is that the average returns of the IPOs are decreasing along the years and that companies that depend to a large extent on their human capital and are in the business areas that are staff intensive have a high level of underpricing while companies that have a high level of fixed assets have a low level of underpricing.</p><p>Finally, after performing a multivariate linear regression analysis with the chosen independent variables on the full sample and some categorized samples, the results did not have enough statistical significance and consistence that could make them useful to create a statistical model to explain the underpricing level of Brazilian IPOs between January 2004 and April 2007.</p>

IPO underpricing is a phenomenon found in all markets worldwide. Investors are always looking for a good opportunity of short-term abnormal positive returns, and the IPOs first-day trading returns have been a good investment strategy for both institutional and private investors in all markets of the world. This study consists at an investor’s perspective analysis of the first-day returns of 59 IPOs listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange Market from January 2004 to April 2007, where I have found a significantly mean positive underpricing of 6,60%. I have found also some evidences of a sprouting “hot-market” period in Brazil, since the number of the IPOs in Brazil has been growing almost in an exponential speed, taking advantage of the constant growing cash inflow and liquidity of the Brazilian market, followed by the high evaluation of the Ibovespa Index, with return of 140% on the study time frame. When categorizing the study by year, by underwriter (investment bank) and by market segment, I always have found positive adjusted initial returns, which corroborates the fact that underpricing is a constant phenomenon in the Brazilian market. Other important facts that were identified in this study is that the average returns of the IPOs are decreasing along the years and that companies that depend to a large extent on their human capital and are in the business areas that are staff intensive have a high level of underpricing while companies that have a high level of fixed assets have a low level of underpricing. Finally, after performing a multivariate linear regression analysis with the chosen independent variables on the full sample and some categorized samples, the results did not have enough statistical significance and consistence that could make them useful to create a statistical model to explain the underpricing level of Brazilian IPOs between January 2004 and April 2007.

This study examines the affect of winning an Academy Award on the stock price of parent companies. On average, receiving an Oscar has no significant impact on the stock of parent companies during the few days surrounding the broadcast of the Academy Awards. The findings of this study introduce questions of external interference and possible limitations on this type of research. However, my study sheds light on future topics of investigation for analyzing the effects of televised award shows on the stock market.

I denna studie har aktieutvecklingen hos förvärvade börsnoterade företag vid budets offentliggörande studerats. Företagen som förvärvades under lågkonjunkturen år 2007-2009, och högkonjunkturen år 2001-2004 har undersökts för att se om det finns någon skillnad i aktieprisutvecklingen som skulle kunna bero på vilket tillstånd ekonomin i samhället befinner sig. Därefter utreds om det finns en skillnad beroende på vilken bransch företagen befinner sig i. Studien förankras teoretiskt ur den effektiva marknadshypotesen där en semistark effektiv marknad antas. Denna grad av effektivitet antas vanligen för finansiella marknader och är den form som eventstudier utgår ifrån. Den undersökningsform som används i denna uppsats är en eventstudie och denna statistiska metod mäter marknadens reaktion på ny information. Den abnorma avkastningen har beräknats vilket sedan belysts genom tabeller och diagram, vilka i sin tur tolkats av en analytiker. Studien resulterade i att företagsförvärv i lågkonjunktur har högre abnorm avkastning än uppköp som sker under högkonjunktur. Uppsatsen uppvisade även att kommunikationssektorn hade en högre abnorm avkastning än resterande branscher. / Share development of acquired companies listed at the bearer's publication has been studied. Companies acquired during the recession years 2007-2009 and the boom years 2001-2004 have been studied to see if there is any difference in the share price that would depend on what cyclical the economy in the society is. I have further investigated whether there is a difference depending on what industry the companies are active in. The study is anchored in theory from the efficient market hypothesis in which a semi-strong efficient market is assumed. This degree of efficiency is usually assumed in financial markets and is the form that event studies adopt. The survey form used in this paper is an event study and this statistical method measures the market’s reaction to new information. The abnormal return is calculated which is then illustrated by tables and charts, which in turn is interpreted by an analyst. The study showed that acquisitions in the recession had higher abnormal returns than purchases made during the boom. The paper also showed that the communications companies had a higher abnormal return than the remaining sectors.

This thesis examines the impact of company announcements on the daily stock returns of lowly capitalised companies. A total of 105 companies comprise the sample and 1464 events are examined over the period 21110/97 to 03/0412000. The methodology employed is primarily, empirical in nature. Event studies are conducted to gauge the impact of company announcements on stock returns using the single index market model (SIMM) as the chosen equilibrium market model for modelling abnormal returns. The study professes three mam contributions to knowledge. The empirical evidence suggests that financial announcement have a more timely impact on stock returns than non-financial announcements. Secondly, there appears to be significant over-reaction and mean-reversion exhibited by lowly capitalised firms. Thirdly, the speed of adjustment of stock prices to new information is increased in cases where shareholder concentration is high while over-reactions appear inversely proportionate to shareholder concentration. This may be a consequence of smaller firms experiencing leakage of boardroom level information prior to public announcement days.

Many studies have been performed on the short- and long-run abnormal returns to acquirers in acquisition attempts, but the topic of bidding wars is relatively unexplored. This piece performs an in-depth analysis of daily returns to both the public winners and losers in bidding war situations. It provides a counterargument to earlier findings that found that winners in bidding wars performed poorly compared to losers. I also fill in the gap in the analysis of short-term returns to paired winners and losers during and surrounding the bidding war. I find that winners perform significantly better than losers during certain critical periods in the bidding war, and this appears to signal the increased likelihood of the winner’s success. However, in the short-term, the market consistently misjudges the direction of the long-run benefits of the acquisition to the winner.