The core research question is: how does intelligence and security services of Member States to the AU and established regional and continental security intelligence organisations collectively contribute to the implementation of the APSA? The study empirically reconstructs – descriptively, functionally and analytically – the mechanisms, magnitude and processes of intelligence cooperation at the regional and continental level within the framework of the APSA. In line with the above, the study answers these research questions: i. What are the contributions of the CEWS, as a form of open-source intelligence outfit, to the APSA? ii. What are the roles and contributions of CISSA to the AUC with particular reference to the APSA? iii. How does the Nouakchott and the Djibouti Processes contribute to implementing the APSA? Acknowledging that intelligence cooperation is strategically poised, the interest of this study is directed towards identifying, examining and evaluating established institutions and frameworks and their respective processes of intelligence cooperation. Thus, the study looks at the contribution of security intelligence towards the implementation of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) of the African Union (AU), and the thesis is divided into seven chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the study and outlines the research problem, methodology, sources and materials. The second chapter provides an overview of the academic debates around intelligence cooperation. The third chapter empirically reconstructs the configurations of the APSA and conceptualise the function and service roles of each pillar in a descriptive, functional and analytical lens. Chapter 4 reconstructs the operationalisation and institutionalisation of the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and further examine its methodology and how it aligns early warning to decision making and early action. Chapter 5 examined the roles and contributions of the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) to the African Union Commission (AUC) with particular reference to the APSA. Chapter 6 provides extensive analysis and reconstruction of the operationalisation of the APSA through intelligence cooperation in the Sahelo-Saharan, East and Horn of Africa regions through the Nouakchott Process and the Djibouti Process, respectively, and the last chapter concludes the study by synopsising and reflecting on the research questions and outlining the significant contributions of the study.:Acknowledgements ii List of Figures viii List of Abbreviations ix Chapter One 1 Introduction and Overview of the Study 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 State of the art 3 1.2.1 Global Intelligence Services 3 1.2.2 Intelligence Services in Africa 9 1.2.3 Intelligence Cooperation and the AU 11 1.3 Research Question 14 1.4 Research Design 15 1.4.1 Methodology 17 1.4.2 Methods 18 1.4.3 Sources and Materials 20 1.5 Organization of the thesis 21 Chapter Two 24 Intelligence Cooperation in International and Regional Organisations 24 2.1 Introduction 24 2.2 Intelligence Cooperation in International Organisations 25 2.3 Intelligence Cooperation in Regional Organisations 35 2.4 Intelligence Cooperation Typologies 44 2.5 Intelligence Cooperation Methodologies 47 2.6 Chapter Summary 49 Chapter Three 51 The African Peace and Security Architecture 51 3.1 Introduction 51 3.2 Structure of the APSA 52 3.2.1 Peace and Security Council 55 3.2.2 Panel of the Wise 60 3.2.3 Continental Early Warning System 67 3.2.4 African Standby Force 68 3.2.5 Peace Fund 73 3.3 APSA’s Strategic Priorities 75 3.4 APSA and RECs 80 3.5 Chapter Summary 84 Chapter Four 87 The CEWS, Intelligence cooperation and the APSA 87 4.1 Introduction 87 4.2 Intelligence Cooperation, Early Warning and the OAU 90 4.3 The PSC Protocol and the CEWS 97 4.4 The Operationalisation of the CEWS 100 4.5 The Institutionalisation of the CEWS 107 4.5.1 The Situation Room 107 4.5.2 The African Media Monitor 109 4.5.3 Africa Reporter 110 4.5.4 Africa Prospects 111 4.5.5 Indicators and Profile Module 111 4.5.6 The CEWS Portal 112 4.5 The CEWS Methodology 113 4.5.1 Information Collection and Monitoring 113 4.5.2 Conflict and Cooperation Analysis 118 4.5.3 Formulation of Options 121 4.5.4 Responses 123 4.6 Early Warning, Decision Making and Early Action 124 4.7 The CEWS and RECs 131 4.8 The CEWS and other Early Warning Mechanisms 134 4.8.1 Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework 135 4.8.2 African Peer Review Mechanism and Conflict Prevention 137 4.8.3 Horizon Scanning 139 4.9 Challenges to the CEWS 140 4.10 The Evolution and Future of the CEWS 146 4.11 Chapter Summary 149 Chapter Five 153 Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa and the APSA 153 5.1 Introduction 153 5.2 Genesis 154 5.3 Mandate, Vision and Mission 157 5.4 Objectives 157 5.5 Principles 162 5.6 Functions 163 5.7 Structures of CISSA and their Functions 164 5.7.1 The Conference 164 5.7.2 Panel of Experts 178 5.7.3 Bureau of the CISSA Conference 179 5.7.4 The CISSA Regions 180 5.7.5 Troika 182 5.7.6 The Secretariat 182 5.7.7 Specialised Technical Committees 187 5.8. Relationship between CISSA and the AU 188 5.9 The Intelligence and Security Committee \ CISSA Liaison Unit 189 5.10 CISSA and Regional Security Intelligence Institutions 196 5.11 Challenges to the performance of CISSA 198 5.12 Chapter Summary 210 Chapter Six 213 Intelligence Cooperation in the Nouakchott and Djibouti Processes, 2013-2021 213 6.1 Introduction 213 6.2 The Nouakchott Process 216 6.2.1 Genesis 216 6.2.2 Inauguration 219 6.2.3 Implementation of the Nouakchott Conclusions 228 6.2.4 The Nouakchott Declaration 233 6.2.5 The Nouakchott Process vis-à-vis other Regional Frameworks 236 6.2.6 Post-declaration, Challenges and Prospect 237 6.3 The Djibouti Process 245 6.3.1 Background 245 6.3.2 Rationale 246 6.3.3 Establishment 247 6.3.4 Implementation Meetings 252 6.4 The Nouakchott and the Djibouti Processes 257 6.4.1 Joint Meeting 257 6.4.2 Points for Action 259 6.5 Past for the future in the present 261 6.6 Influence and Power Contestations 265 6.7 Chapter Summary 273 Chapter Seven 275 Conclusion 275 7.1 Introduction 275 7.2 Summary of key arguments 276 7.3 Contributions and suggestions for future research 286 8. References 293 8.1 Sources 293 8.2 Literature 303 8.3 Interviews 337 Assurance 338

At its core, this research project is a revision of how we conceptualise the role of international organisations. The concept of role is often invoked International Relations when discussing the function of institutions like the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), but its full meaning in this context has never been problematised, leading to varying perceptions of its meaning and a lack of common understanding in the discourse. In the case of the APSA, this lack of common understanding has led to a wide variance in how the role of the APSA is categorised, and a corresponding discrepancy in assessments of the institution’s success and utility, which has had a knock-on effect on policy recommendations, which also differ wildly from author to author. This thesis devises technical definitions for the various ways in which the word role is utilised in International Relations and related fields, and in so doing, aims to standardise our understanding of the role of institutions, using the APSA as a case study. After developing a new technical definition of role based on Role Theory, the thesis develops a research programme which sets out to investigate the true role of the APSA, based on an examination of how the APSA’s role has been shaped by key limiting and enabling factors, and how this role is shaped and influenced, and directed; all the while highlighting how it differs from the organisation’s stated role, and scholarly perceptions of that role.

En dépit de sa complexité analytique, la situation sécuritaire de la Corne de l’Afrique peut être soumise aux outils de la Science politique afin de mieux comprendre les interactions entre les différents acteurs. Cette recherche s’efforce d’analyser les ressorts d’une équation sécuritaire qui peut paraître insoluble : le régionalisme est-il aujourd’hui un prérequis à l’émergence d’une paix régionale ? Pour répondre à cette question il est nécessaire de comprendre quels rôles jouent les processus sécuritaires régionaux (régionalisation et régionalisme) dans la construction des États de la Corne de l’Afrique. Cette étude s’efforce d’étudier les interactions entre le régionalisme, fondement de l’architecture de paix et de sécurité continentale, la régionalisation des conflits, qui semble à l’oeuvre dans cette région, et les processus de construction/formation de l’État. Les rapports entre les trois termes de l’équation dépendent du contexte et des interactions entre les différentes entités composant la région (États, acteurs non étatiques qui se dressent contre eux ou négocient avec eux et acteurs extérieurs). Deux types de dynamiques sont mises en évidence au terme de cette étude : l’une endogène, l’autre exogène. Dans la première, nous constatons que les conflits participent à la formation de l’État. Ils sont en grande partie des conflits internes et montrent qu’il existe une crise dans l’État. Ces États dominent le processus de régionalisme qui tente de réguler la conflictualité régionale avec un succès relatif puisque les organisations régionales cherchent à renforcer ou reconstruire l’État selon les critères idéalisés de l’État wébérien vu comme source d’instabilité. Le processus exogène se caractérise par le rôle des conflits régionaux dont l’existence sert de justificatif au développement et au renforcement du régionalisme, perçu comme la réponse la plus appropriée à ces problèmes de conflictualités. Cette conflictualité a pour source l’État car celui-ci est perçu comme faible. Le régionalisme permettrait de renforcer les États et diminuerait leurs velléités de faire la guerre. / In spite of its analytical complexity, the security context in the Horn of Africa may be submitted to the Political Science’ tools in order to better understand the complex interactions between the various actors. The present research thus seeks to analyze the mechanism underlying what appears as an unsolvable security problem: is regionalism a prerequisite for the emergence of a regional peace? In order to answer this question, it is necessary to understand the role of regional security processes (regionalization and regionalism) in the state formation and state building of the Horn of Africa’s states. This study endeavours to explore the interactions between regionalism, which are inherent in the creation of an African peace and security architecture, the regionalization of conflict, which seems at work in this area, and construction/formation state process. The relationship between the three terms of this equation depends on the context and interactions between the various entities that make up the region (states, non-state actors that stand against them or negotiate with the states and external actors). This study thus reveals two kinds of dynamics at play: an endogenous process and an exogenous one. In the first one conflicts are involved in the formation of the state and are largely internal conflicts. It demonstrates that there is a crisis in the state States dominate the regionalism process which tries to regulate regional conflit with relative success because regional organizations seek to strengthen or rebuild the state according to the idealized criteria of the Weberian State seen as a source of instability. The exogenous process is characterized by the role of regional conflicts whose very existence serves to justify the development and the strenghtening of regionalism thus perceived as the most appropriate answer to those security problems. States are the source of conflicts because they are perceived as weak. Regionalism would strengthen states and reduce the inclination of states to make war.