How many local actors need to do what to reduce Hammarby Sjöstad’s climate impact till 2030 in alignment with "Carbon Law”, i.e. halving the citizens’ consumption-based emissions every ten years? This is demonstrated in a backcasting study of the city district. The local actors’ reduction potentials concerning ground transport, food, housing, aviation and other consumption are explored in individual transitions. The quantitative city district scenario scales up the individual transitions to city district level, asking how many local actors must do how much, starting when, for the Sjöstad’s target to be reached? The overarching backcasting has both prognostic and explorative elements but is essentially normative. It is both quantitative and qualitative, addressing the two main questions what does it take and by whom? The result shows that the city district’s aim is feasible only if Stockholm City and other external actors fulfil their climate targets and the technological development continues to advance. These are external contributions shaping the local actors’ field of options. Furthermore, the result shows that a vast majority of the households must utilize a substantial part of their full potential for the target to be met. New organizational models and actor networks must also emerge for the transition to launch. The scenario’s qualitative part illustrates the need for energy managers, local supermarkets, car sharing companies etc. to become agents of change. The transition is further catalyzed by local network builder and transition agent ElectriCITY. / Hur många lokala aktörer behöver göra vad för att minska Hammarby Sjöstads klimatpåverkan till 2030 i linje med "Carbon Law", det vill säga att halvera invånarnas konsumtionsbaserade utsläpp vart tionde år? Detta demonstreras i en backcastingstudie av stadsdelen. De lokala aktörernas reduktionspotential för marktransporter, livsmedel, bostäder, flyg och övrig konsumtion utforskas i enskilda omställningar. Det kvantitativa stadsdelsscenariot skalar upp de enskilda omställningarna till stadsdelsnivå och frågar: Hur många lokala aktörer måste göra hur mycket, och när för att Sjöstadens Carbon Law-mål ska nås? Den övergripande backcastingstudien har både prognostiska och explorativa inslag men är huvudsakligen normativ. Den är både kvantitativt och kvalitativt då den både adresserar frågan Vad krävs det och av Vem? Resultatet visar att stadsdelsmålet endast är möjligt att nås om Stockholms stad och andra aktörer uppfyller sina klimatmål och den tekniska utvecklingen framskrider. Detta är externa bidrag som formar de lokala aktörernas handlingsutrymme. Vidare visar resultatet att en majoritet av hushållen måste utnyttja en betydande del av sin fulla potential för att målet ska nås. Nya organisationsmodeller och aktörsnätverk måste också utvecklas för att omställningen ska ta fart. Scenariots kvalitativa del illustrerar behovet av att exempelvis energiförvaltare, lokala livsmedelsbutiker och bilpoolsföretag blir förändringsagenter i omställningen. Övergången katalyseras vidare av den lokala förändringsdrivaren och nätverksbyggaren ElectriCITY.

Cities are increasingly important for the well-being of humans, other species, and the whole biosphere. Recently, there has been growing awareness of cities being inhabited by multiple species whose needs are entangled. In this thesis, a set of positive scenarios and pathways towards multispecies cities were created with the aim to evoke the reader’s imagination, stepping away from quantitative and linear methods of scenario building on the one hand and negative imaginaries of environmental and social destruction on the other hand. Using Solarpunk stories as input to a backcasting process that combined the theories of the Nature Futures Framework, climate resilient development, and multispecies sustainability, the thesis suggested new imaginaries of how the future of cities might look through a multispecies lens. Examples include multispecies climate adaptation, animal social security, and interspecies relationships. An interactive story communicates the results of the thesis with the potential to engage a wider audience beyond academia and challenge the readers’ current beliefs about the future of cities. The story can be played here: https://reettarossi.itch.io/multispecies-cities. The thesis contributes to the pursuit of developing transformative representations of the future that inspire action and help people make better decisions today. Since everybody has their own ideas of what is a desirable city, there is a need to continue developing a plurality of desirable images of urban futures.

Forests are key providers of terrestrial ecosystem services such as climate regulation, water purification, natural pest control, habitats for biodiversity, as well as different forms of wood based materials and food. Nevertheless forests are dangerously exposed to great pressures from various kinds of societal activities. This report examines the importance of forests for the (i) maintenance of life supporting functions of the biosphere as well as for (ii) providing a flexible resource base for the satisfying of human needs on more and more sustainability-driven markets. How can Swedish forestry be managed such that those two essential roles of forests become mutually supportive? The report also relates the results to three relevant and well-citied protocols for the subject: the Sustainable Development Goals in UN’s Agenda 2030, the Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives, and the Swedish National Forest Program. The approach applied Maxwell’s process design for qualitative research. Data have been collected from literature search and interviews of experts and the analytical instrument for modeling of data was the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD). The report concludes: Sustainable development for forestry relies on a paradigm shift in civilization’s perception of forestry to a practice where planning departures from envisioning a future where natural forest functions to sustain higher life forms and civilization are safeguarded and prioritized before other usages of forestland, and where diversity is enhanced in terms of tree age and species to foster more resilient and high-quality timber forests. When the above points are achieved, the higher diversity of more resilient forests should also have potential to supply markets with various kinds of resources offered to more and more sustainability driven markets. Furthermore, this development of society’s forest use increases the chances for civilization to be sustainable also with relatively smaller forest areas put aside for no forestry at all. In such a situation forestry and society have prioritized forest products and usages with long life spans before such with short. A future sustainable Swedish forest sector has recognized the above, and drawn an essential conclusion from it: the interdependency of forests with society’s overall sustainability performance calls for a cooperative approach that departures from an understanding of basic sustainability principles that are shared across sectors and disciplines. The Sustainable Development Goals, the Swedish Environmental Objectives and the Swedish National Forest Program all fail to take the above broad- systems perspective when it comes to proposing measures for the future, including how to advise further research to explore what the sustainable Swedish forestry could entail. The study arrives at pointing out an overall approach to analyses, planning and further research in those regards, rather than evaluating details on the path towards sustainable forestry. / Skogen är en nyckelresurs i den landbaserade naturen som förser samhället med ekosystemtjänster såsom klimatreglering, vattenrening, naturlig skadedjursbekämpning, habitat för biologisk mångfald, likväl som olika former av träfiberbaserade material och mat. Samtidigt är skogen hotad av kraftigt tryck från olika aktiviteter i samhället. Den här rapporten undersöker skogens betydelse för (i) upprätthållande av biosfärens livsuppehållande funktioner, samt som (ii) flexibel resurs när det gäller att förse mänskliga behov på alltmer hållbarhetsdrivna marknader. Hur bör skogen skötas så att dessa två roller stödjer varandra? Rapporten relaterar också resultaten till tre relevanta och vanligt citerade protokoll: hållbarhetsmålen i FNs Agenda 2030, de svenska miljömålen och det svenska nationella skogsprogrammet. Forskningen har strukturerats med hjälp av Maxwells process-design för kvalitativ forskning. Data har samlats in genom litteraturstudier och från intervjuer med experter. Modellering av data har gjorts genom att använda ramverket för strategisk hållbar utveckling (FSSD) som analysinstrument. Rapporten kommer fram till att: Hållbar utveckling för skogsbruket är beroende av ett paradigmskifte. En skogsskötsel där (i) planering utgår från att föreställa sig en framtid där skogens funktioner för högre liv på jorden är säkrade och satta före annan användning av skogsmark, och (ii) mångfald är främjad gällande trädens ålder och antalet arter så att mer resilienta skogar kan bidra med högkvalitativt timmer. När skogen förvaltas på det sättet så bör de mer diversa och resilienta skogarna ha möjlighet att förse marknader med olika resurser som kan visa sig vara viktiga på alltmer hållbarhetsdrivna marknader. Vidare borde denna utveckling av samhälles skogsanvändning öka chanserna för civilisationen att bli hållbar med relativt mindre ytor reserverade för att skyddas mot skogsbruk. Med en sådan förvaltning har skogsägare och samhället i stort prioriterat produkter och användningsområden med långa livslängder före sådana med korta livslängder. En framtida hållbar svensk skogssektor har insett allt ovanstående och dragit en väsentlig slutsats från det: beroendet mellan skogen och samhällets övergripande hållbarhetsarbete kräver samarbete utgående från grundläggande hållbarhetsprinciper som delas över sektors- och disciplingränser. Hållbarhetsmålen i Agenda 2030, de svenska miljömålen och det svenska nationella skogsprogrammet saknas alla ett tillräckligt brett systemperspektiv när det gäller att föreslå åtgärder för framtiden, inklusive att ge rekommendationer för framtida forskning om hållbart svenskt skogsbruk. Studien pekar snarare ut en övergripande inriktning för analyser, planering och forskning om hållbart svenskt skogsbruk, än utvärderar de exakta stegen på vägen dit.

Many specific methods and tools have been developed to deal with sustainability problems. However, without a unifying theory it is unclear how these relate to each other and how they can be used strategically. A Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) is being developed to cover this need for clarity and structure. It includes backcasting from a principled definition of sustainability as a key feature. The aim of this thesis is to study how this framework can guide the use and improvement of detailed methods and tools, in particular to support sustainable product innovation (SPI). First, a new strategic life-cycle management approach is presented, in which the selection of aspects to be considered are not based on typical down-stream impact categories, but on identified major violations of sustainability principles. Ideas of how this approach can inform various specific methods and tools are also presented, as a basis for an integrated “toolbox” for SPI. As part of such, a new “template” approach for sustainable product development (TSPD) is developed through a sustainability assessment case study of TVs. That study indicates that this approach can create a quick and strategically relevant overview of critical sustainability aspects of a product, as well as facilitate communication between top management, product developers and external stakeholders. Based on such an assessment, it is sometimes necessary to go deeper into details, including the use of specific engineering methods and tools. To facilitate a coordinated assessment of sustainability aspects and technical aspects, an introductory procedure for sustainability-driven design optimization is suggested trough a water jet cutting case study. Equally important, to get a breakthrough for SPI, it is essential to integrate sustainability aspects into the overall decision-making process at different levels in companies. An approach to assessing sustainability integration in strategic decision systems is therefore also developed through a case study involving several companies. Finally, the integration between the FSSD and general systems modeling and simulation (SMS) is discussed and tested in another water jet cutting case study. It is shown feasible to start with the FSSD to create lists of critical flows and practices, ideas of long term solutions and visions, and a first rough idea about prioritized early investments. After that, SMS can be applied to study the interrelationships between the listed items, in order to create more robust and refined analyses of the problems at hand, possible solutions and investment paths, while constantly coupling back to the sustainability principles and guidelines of the FSSD. This research shows that the combination of the FSSD with detailed methods and tools cohesively provides decision-makers with both a robust overview and, when needed, a more coordinated and effective detailed support. To utilize its full potential, this approach should now be integrated into decision processes, software and manuals for SPI.

Globally, the transport system faces a paradigmatic shift where, in addition to increased local traffic problems, climate change and depletion of fossil oil reserves will foster a successive transition to renewable fuels and a need for more resource-efficient mobility management and communication alternatives. Foresighted countries, cities or companies taking the lead in adapting to these tougher conditions might well not only solve those problems, but also turn the problems into business advantages. This thesis is based on six studies that attempt to develop future strategies based on rigorous principled emission and energy efficiency targets and to modulate the impact of travel policies, technical components and behaviours in economically advantageous ways. The modelling frameworks developed throughout the thesis build on a target-orientated approach called backcasting, where the following general components are applied: (1) target description at a conceptual level i.e. the potential for sustainable energy systems, emissions, costs, behavioural patterns, preferences, etc.; (2) mapping of the current situation in relation to target description; and (3) modelling of alternative sets of policies, technologies, behaviours and economic prerequisites to arrive at target achievement. Sustainable travel strategies are analysed from two main viewpoints. The first four studies focus on company travel planning, where behavioural modelling proved to be an important tool for deriving targetorientated travel policies consistent with employee preferences. The latter two studies focus on strategies and preconditions to meet future emission targets and energy efficiency requirements at a macroscopic regional level by 2030. Backcasting’s role as a generic methodology for effective strategic planning is discussed. / QC 20100816

Decision makers are challenged by complex sustainability problems within the socio-ecological system. In response, a vast range of sustainability-related methods/tools have been developed, each focusing on certain aspects of this challenge. Without a unifying theory it is, however, unclear how these methods/tools can support strategic progress towards sustainability and how they relate to each other. This need for clarity and structure urged some sustainability pioneers to start develop an overarching framework for strategic sustainable development (SSD), often called “The Natural Step (TNS) framework”, from the NGO that has facilitated its development and application, or the “backcasting from sustainability principles (BSP) framework” from its main operational philosophy. The aim of this thesis is to study if, and in that case how, this framework can aid coordination and further development of various sustainability-related methods/tools, specifically to increase their capacity to support sustainable product development (SPD). Life-cycle assessment (LCA), “templates” for SPD and systems modeling and simulation (SMS) are the methods/tools in focus. A new strategic life-cycle management approach is presented, in which the main sustainability aspects, LCA “impacts”, are identified through socioecological sustainability principles. This creates new opportunities to avoid the reductionism that often follows from traditional system boundaries or from a focus on specific impacts. Ideas of how this approach can inform the studied tools are given. This may eventually lead to a whole integrated toolbox for SPD (a “Design Space”). As part of such a Design Space, a new “template” approach for SPD is developed. A case study of a sustainability assessment of TVs at the Matsushita Electric Group indicates that this approach can create a quick overview of critical sustainability aspects in the early part of the product development process and facilitate communication of this overview between top management, product developers, and other stakeholders. A potential integration between BSP and SMS is also discussed. It is suggested that this should start with BSP to create lists of critical presentday flows and practices, ideas of long term solutions and visions, and a first rough idea about prioritized early investments. After that, SMS should be applied to study the interrelationships between the listed items, in order to create more robust and refined analyses of the problems at hand, possible solutions and investment paths, while constantly coupling back to the sustainability principles and guidelines of the BSP framework. v Decision makers seem to need more of an overview and of simplicity around sustainability issues. A general conclusion is, however, that it is important that this is achieved without a loss of relevant aspects and their interrelations. Over-simplifications might lead to sub-optimized designs and investments paths. Combining the BSP framework with more detailed methods/tools seems to be a promising approach to finding the right balance and to get synergies between various methods/tools.

The neighbourhood reconstruction involves three key stakeholders—municipality, builders and residents. There are some conflicts among them due to their different standpoints, and the reasons of most conflicts relate to human needs of residents when they are not met. The main purpose of this study is to create a general socially sustainable neighbourhood reconstruction process through the lens of FSSD and Max-Neef‘s human needs theory. This new process will promote the collaboration among these three key stakeholders and help residents to have their basic human needs fulfilled. First of all, a vision of a sustainable neighbourhood reconstruction process is created and amended based upon literature review and authorities‘ feedback; then a summary of the current reality of the reconstruction process is addressed in light of a case study; followed by the analysis of the gap between vision and reality. At last, different suggestions are given with the purpose of eliminating the gap.

Society is facing a crisis of un-sustainability. The sector of higher education is well poised to support transition to a sustainable society. This thesis assesses the efforts of the Campus Sustainability Movement (CSM) in the US and Canada relative to a Strategic Sustainable Development Framework. Key findings indicate that the CSM is utilizing tools and engaging in a variety of actions towards sustainability. However, it is largely failing to use systems thinking to understand the complex interrelationships of its actions. Most efforts lack a strategy, and when strategy is present, it follows more from barriers than from a long-term goal. Current efforts mostly focus on environmental sustainability. The authors present a backcasting from principles of sustainability approach as one means to improve the strategy of the CSM. They also propose a vision for higher education that incorporates sustainability principles and fundamental human needs in an attempt to bring some concreteness to both the environmental and social aspects of sustainability in higher education.

Impacts of the Olympic Games on the biosphere and on the communities that host them are significant. Increasing size, scope and costs, rising security concerns, cultural and environmental impacts are some of the key issues facing host cities and those cities bidding or considering bidding for the Olympic Games. One of the ideals of the Olympic Charter is to place sport at the service of the harmonious development of mankind and the three pillars of the Olympic movement are sport, culture and environment. This paper examines the IOC’s options for sustainability in its primary question: In what way could the International Olympic Committee (IOC) contribute to a global movement towards socio-ecological sustainability? The hypothesis that the IOC is an agent for social/cultural and environmental change is explored. The paper uses a principled definition of success for socio-ecological sustainability and presents a vision of a sustainable IOC and Olympic Movement within a sustainable society. From that vision specific IOC strategies along with past, present and short-term future actions are analysed to determine the obstacles and deficiencies in moving the IOC toward complying with scientifically relevant principles for socio-ecological sustainability. Systems thinking is used to identify obstacles and opportunities within the Olympic Movement. These obstacles and opportunities to strategically move the IOC toward sustainability are identified, analysed and discussed. The paper concludes with examples of possible actions the IOC could take to strategically move towards sustainability.

This research explores how the web‘s collaborative potential can be harnessed strategically towards sustainability. With the success of web-scale collaborations such as Wikipedia and Linux in mind, we sought to understand how web-enabled collaborations could be used strategically, particularly to support innovation for sustainability. Building on Peter Gloor of MIT‘s research into collaborative innovation networks (COINs), a framework for collaborative organizational networks supporting innovation, we evaluated COINs‘ strategic potential for sustainability utilizing the framework for strategic sustainable development and the approach of backcasting. We found that COINs can provide a strategic and effective way to work towards sustainability because they harness collective intelligence towards innovation and support distributed working styles. Additionally they provide an organizational framework that supports socially sustainable modes of working. However, COINs can amplify the impact of unsustainable innovations, so a strong systems perspective based on principles of sustainability is required to use COINs strategically. The final product of this research is a set of recommendations for people considering utilizing COINs for sustainability.